Hurricane Jova aftermath wind-damage estimation

[beoumont]

I just read a report from a storm chaser (on AmericanWX forum) on his interception of Jova at the town of Emiliano Zapata. He posted pictures of the damage.

Based solely on those pictures:

The damage appears quite comparable to the damage I observed from Hurricane Lili of 2002 in Abbeville, Louisiana. Winds gusted during Lili to 90 MPH; knocked down a lot of large oak trees whose limbs blocked some roads for awhile, stripped the tiles off of some roofs and peeled off many roofs made of sheet metal, knocked down some signs, and toppled a few power poles. Many large bushes and bushy type trees were uprooted and toppled as well. The only true structural damage was a direct result of large oak tree limbs falling on homes and penetrating roofs; not from the wind itself. A true hurricane; but certainly not a major hurricane at landfall. Lili's central pressure at landfall was 963 mb; and the eye passed just a few miles west of Abbeville.

Considering the center of the eye of Jova passed approximately 10-11 miles from Zapata, and the extent of hurricane winds extended out only 15 miles, and the fact that Zapata is not directly on the coastline; 90-95 MPH gusts would seem about it. I saw no structural damage in the photos posted on the AmericanWx site.

If I see future video or shots of the storm, I will adjust this estimate if those shots indicate greater damage.

[beoumont]

I just read a report from a storm chaser (on AmericanWX forum) on his interception of Jova at the town of Emiliano Zapata. He posted pictures of the damage.

Based solely on those pictures:

The damage appears quite comparable to the damage I observed from Hurricane Lili of 2002 in Abbeville, Louisiana. Winds gusted during Lili to 90 MPH; knocked down a lot of large oak trees whose limbs blocked some roads for awhile, stripped the tiles off of some roofs and peeled off many roofs made of sheet metal, knocked down some signs, and toppled a few power poles. Many large bushes and bushy type trees were uprooted and toppled as well. The only true structural damage was a direct result of large oak tree limbs falling on homes and penetrating roofs; not from the wind itself. A true hurricane; but certainly not a major hurricane at landfall. Lili's central pressure at landfall was 963 mb; and the eye passed just a few miles west of Abbeville.

Considering the center of the eye of Jova passed approximately 10-11 miles from Zapata, and the extent of hurricane winds extended out only 15 miles, and the fact that Zapata is not directly on the coastline; 90-95 MPH gusts would seem about it. I saw no structural damage in the photos posted on the AmericanWx site.

If I see future video or shots of the storm, I will adjust this estimate if those shots indicate greater damage.

As a frame of reference to my post above, below are some damage shots from Lili, 2002, at Abbeville, La; where the highest GUSTS were no more than 90 mph. These shots indicate simply that the word "hurricane" implies "powerful wind"..So, even a Cat. #1 hurricane does cause considerable damage - even though the number 1 might seem small (compared to 3 or 5) to folks not familiar to what hurricane winds can do. Mark Suddeth also experienced this storm in New Iberia, the next town east from Abbeville; so he could verify that gusts were in the 90 mph range. I also saw him drive through Abbeville at some point during or after the storm - I have his SUV on video.

[beoumont]

Now that I got the proper interpretation from an administrator of this forum that I can post pictures from another forum:

I mentioned earlier that my estimation of damage from Emiliano Zapata from Hurricane Jova was based solely on the pictures shot by two chasers that were in that town. Below are the shots they (Josh Morgerman and Jim Edds) shot and posted in the "chasing Jova" thread on the AmericanWx forum.

As I noted in above posts, as well, the shots from Lili in Abbeville represent what a storm with a few max. GUSTS of 90 mph can do.

With this picture comparison, (and any other frames of reference others might have) how much wind do others on this forum think occurred at Emiliano Zapata?

Again I add that if additional shots are posted anywhere that show greater damage in Zapata, I will adjust my current estimate of what the max. winds were.

[srainhoutx]

This is from the intercept that the OP spoke of....

Jova was a violent hurricane, and its wind core passed right over us. As ferocious as it was, the cyclone was quite small-- we didn't really experience heavy winds until the center was very near. The center passed just a few miles to our W at about 12:30 am CDT, and just after that, we were pounded particularly hard by the SE eyewall. All of the footage is time-stamped, and you'll notice the winds start to really pick up around 12:44 am, steadily building in ferocity to a roaring climax at 12:57 and 12:58 am CDT.

Enjoy!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FAoIAcQa3cA[/youtube]

[beoumont]

Interesting video above of Jova's winds and rain. Wind estimates from night time video are tricky at best.

If someone told me there was a reliable anemometer in the vicinity and it recorded maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, I would not be surprised. Or, if there was a reliable anemometer in the vicinity that recorded max sustained winds of 97 mph, I would not be surprised, either. It is just so rough from nighttime video to get a good feel due to several limiting factors:
A. The field, depth and breadth of vision is so restricted.
B. In this case it appears the wind direction is very parallel to the roadway - which makes the likelihood of some funneling effect taking place between two rows of houses or buildings - which would exaggerate the actual sustained wind factors of the storm at landfall.
C. Torrential rain can give the impression of higher winds, than with the same wind in light rain; especially when illuminated by an artificial light beam.

As mentioned in my earlier posts, the actual damage incurred from these winds is a better indicator as to how strong the wind pressure on objects actually was. And based on the photos displayed by the same photographer as the video above in the same location, the damage indicates sustained winds were in the 80 mph range.

The satellite devorak estimate at landfall, I believe, was 85 knts. Usually, when a chaser intercepts a hurricane at the shoreline at the exact right spot, he or she will come across a few gusts of equal value to the stated sustained winds. Being several miles from the shore, though, would normally reduce that by 15-25%.

When I was in Ike in Texas City, at night, I felt the winds were gusting 100-110 mph after the eye passed. But upon inspection in the early morning, I drove and drove around the city, and could not find damage that indicated any gusts were over 85 mph, that's for sure. A few large limbs had fallen on wooden homes, and caused the most "wind" destruction. And some of those limbs appeared to be rotten-inside old oak tree branches. Not a single gas station overhang had collapsed.

The night will fool ya; just like night satellite loops can fool ya.

Again as comparison and a frame of reference: below is a short video I shot during Hurricane Emily @ Buxton in 1993. The blinding rain and resultant limited visibility gives the impression of very high wind; but a private anemometer not a mile away in Buxton only had max sustained winds of 76 mph.

Both videos again make clear the word hurricane indicates powerful weather conditions. The wind damage from Emily was certainly greater than the damage shots from Jova indicate occurred in Mexico; the inland city of Emiliano Zapata, for sure.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhNnulhG_0k&list=UUUcxkoEAikKAabUqvMne86w&feature=plcp[/youtube]

[beoumont]

The hurricane Jova NHC cyclone report is now complete.

The intensity at landfall was 85 knots.

The full report is here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP102011_Jova.pdf

[artist]

thanks beoumont