Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Portastorm]

Look ... it's not like I'm pulling this out of my arse. The Canadian puts the 0-degree 850mb isotherm deep into west Texas. The European is less severe but certainly colder than the GFS. I never said "big cold wave." But this is far from a ho-hum development. Even the NWSFOs in west Texas (San Angelo and Lubbock) speak to it in their morning discussions.

I know 0-degree isotherms at the 850mb don't always mean freezing at the surface. But they do mean close to freezing. If the Euro and CMC are on to something and the temps trend slightly colder, then you have a winter event.

You can try to use your evil warm mongerer powers ... but they won't work on me!

[wxman57]

I'm not disagreeing with you at all, Portastorm. I'm just noting that the Euro's forecast for Sunday matches the temps being observed this morning at the surface and 850mb over those same areas. No big change, just a reinforcement of current conditions. Oh, and by Monday we'll have a deep onshore flow that may drive temps up into the mid to upper 70s across SE TX early next week.

[Stormcenter]

The models are as good as they are during winter as they are during hurricane season.....enough said.

[orangeblood]

True, the models are clueless beyond a few days out. However, there's still no cold air in western Canada (or Alaska now). Can't get cold in Texas if temps are well above normal in western Canada. I think we've seen our last freeze in Houston, though I do need a 29F low at IAH for the forecast contest.

Going to have to respectfully disagree with this statement wxman57...western Canada isn't the only source region for cold air in Texas. The cold air masses coming down over the next week are originating in North Central Canada/Hudson Bay and rotating around the western side of the Polar Vortex located across Hudson Bay. A few of the most severe cold outbreaks in Texas have come when the Polar Vortex collapses into the Great Lakes bringing down Arctic air from north of Hudson Bay.

[wxman57]

Very little of that air will reach us, orangeblood. And still we don't have a single model forecasting any freezing temps across southeast Texas this weekend, just lows into the lower 40s. By early next week we'll be back in deep onshore flow with lows in the 60s and highs in the 70s (and more fog). All models show cold air from the SE Canada vortex retreating northeastward after Sunday.

[Portastorm]

I'm not disagreeing with you at all, Portastorm. I'm just noting that the Euro's forecast for Sunday matches the temps being observed this morning at the surface and 850mb over those same areas. No big change, just a reinforcement of current conditions. Oh, and by Monday we'll have a deep onshore flow that may drive temps up into the mid to upper 70s across SE TX early next week.

Yes I know ... better cycling weather is ahead for you.

Hey, with all of this winter season biking though, you must be in superb physical condition. But I digress. I've got to come up with some winter weather soon or Ntxw is going to jettison his avatar and I'll be living in shame until next winter.

[wxman57]

Haven't been on the bikes in 10 days now with all the cold and mostly the rain. 12.5" so far this year. I do have 100 more miles under my best than last year at this time, though. Going to be another quite cold weekend with highs only into the upper 50s to lower 60s, but at least it might not be raining. Ideal riding weather is sunny and around 85 degrees. Won't see 85 degrees (probably) until early March, around the time we shift the clocks ahead and it's light until around 8pm. That opens up the evening for a bike ride after work.

I always like it when we reach February as it means winter is almost over. I can see the light at the end of the tunnel now!

[Ntxw]

I always like it when we reach February as it means winter is almost over. I can see the light at the end of the tunnel now!

I'm hoping that light is an incoming polar express (or better yet siberian) train .

12z GFS continues to look warmer than cmc and euro. Rain is on tap at least weekend and next week, how much depends on track of a series of systems. I will say this, decided to go for a walk not long ago and the chill had a bite to it. Haven't seen much sun or warmth since Sunday (When the MJO first made it's way into phase 7). Coincidence? Maybe.

[Texas Snowman]

Historical and interesting tidbit from Texas Weather Chasers' Facebook page:

"On this date back in 1933, the town of Seminole recorded the lowest temperature reading for the state at -23 degrees F. And on this date back in 1956, the town of Vega picked up 61 inches of snow...a record still standing to this day for the greatest amount of snowfall in Texas from a single storm. --JB"

[Texas Snowman]

Sounds like great bike riding weather for Mr. You-Know-Who!

[Ntxw]

Lets not forget our friends in the Lower Rio Grande Valley (yes you Rgv!). It's raining at a good clip that way and they have been socked in winter mode for several days now compared to their normals with cloudy/rain. Glad to see more parts of the southern half of Texas get drought relief.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bro/

[Texas Snowman]

Also need to note that there was a little bit of winter weather in Texas yesterday.

Some light snow fell in the northern and eastern Panhandle. Pampa measured 2.5 inches; Lipscomb measured 2.3 inches; and Dumas measured 1.5 inches.

EDIT: Here's the NWS link for yesterday's snowfall measurments:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... format=txt

[Rgv20]

Lets not forget our friends in the Lower Rio Grande Valley (yes you Rgv!). It's raining at a good clip that way and they have been socked in winter mode for several days now compared to their normals with cloudy/rain. Glad to see more parts of the southern half of Texas get drought relief.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bro/

Yes we have had some light to moderate Rain for my area for about 12 to 14 hours straight with a steady temperature of 54 (last time I checked half an inch at the rain gauge) I have not posted in the last couple of day as I have been battling a nasty cold! And I have not been keeping up with the weather/model runs.

Ntwx, I have not seen the sun since Saturday!! And probably wont see it until Sunday! I miss the

[Ntxw]

Discrepancies between the EC/Canadian and GFS continues regarding temperatures later this weekend and beginning next week. 12z Euro paints a similar picture as it's 0z run with snow along and north of I-20 from west Texas into northeast Texas (Oklahoma included). All three models show an appreciable precip event with GFS having rain for DFW while EC/Cmc a snow/mix to rain scenario. It is still beyond NAM's range so who knows. It could all be gone by tonight so take it with a grain of salt!

[orangeblood]

IMO, it appears the big winners of winter weather for the southern plains over the next 7-10 days look to be those along and north of I-40. The storm track looks like its setting up to run right through Oklahoma, making those along and north of the storm track in a good area for winter weather. This should at lease make things a little more interesting around here. With this trough setting up over the central conus for the first time in awhile, any storm track displacement to the south should bring Texas in on the winter weather action....some GFS ensemble members are hinting at the Feb. 19-22 time period to watch out for and that coincides with the MJO possibly moving into phases 1-2


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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HockeyTx82]

So at this point if it does snow/ice have we been way to warm for anything to stick................................

[CaptinCrunch]

Well the forecast was a bust for today across DFW, the forecast highs was in the lower 50's but we have only managed 43 so far, so I expect the over night lows to be off as well with temps in the upper 20's rather than lower 30's.

[orangeblood]

Well the forecast was a bust for today across DFW, the forecast highs was in the lower 50's but we have only managed 43 so far, so I expect the over night lows to be off as well with temps in the upper 20's rather than lower 30's.

Yep, models have underestimated this cold air mass by 5-10F. Makes me wonder if they're doing the same for this weekends cold shot, which if they are will make Sunday Night's system much more interesting for North Texas!!

[Portastorm]

Well the forecast was a bust for today across DFW, the forecast highs was in the lower 50's but we have only managed 43 so far, so I expect the over night lows to be off as well with temps in the upper 20's rather than lower 30's.

Yep, models have underestimated this cold air mass by 5-10F. Makes me wonder if they're doing the same for this weekends cold shot, which if they are will make Sunday Night's system much more interesting for North Texas!!

Therein lies my point from earlier today and why I found the Euro and CMC runs at least mildly interesting.

[Ntxw]

The current air mass looks polar of origin. This weekend's push will be driven by a stronger high/push and how it looks on the NAM/Euro/Canadian is more down the spine of the rockies from the PV while GFS is NW to to SE. GFS also wants to retreat the cold air faster as the storm in the SW digs holding up the air mass.