Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[aggiecutter]

AFD out of Shreveport this afternoon:

"WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS ON THIS
SYSTEM. ON SET TIMING COULD EVEN BE WINTRY FOR AT LEAST I-30 IF
CLEAR SKIES START THE NIGHT AND CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ROLL IN FAST
EARLY MONDAY."

[Texas Snowman]

Couple of interesting tweets from Joe B (be sure to check the link for the Venice and Rome pictures, amazing!):

@BigJoeBastardi: "Attention Warmingistas. The MJO is wants to give you a lesson in natural variability and move thru phases 8,1,2,3 http://pic.twitter.com/ORGs3wl2"

@BigJoeBastardi: "Venice ( left) and Rome ( right) looks like a tough day to sip espresso at the local cafe, eh? http://pic.twitter.com/JiK1lbvD"

[somethingfunny]

Well the forecast was a bust for today across DFW, the forecast highs was in the lower 50's but we have only managed 43 so far, so I expect the over night lows to be off as well with temps in the upper 20's rather than lower 30's.

The cloudcover works both ways, so I don't think we'll get too cold tonight, but I've also been noticing the high temperatures busting below forecast for several days now... this forecast method works better than a scientist might think LOL. It would be marginal at best this weekend, definitely nothing to get our hopes up about IMO - but maybe some flurries or sleet pellets will find their way into the Red River counties.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NWS products.

[Kelarie]

From Shreveport NWS...

....IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH THE EXPECTED LOW DEWPOINTS FROM THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND TO SEE HOW THIS COMES TOGETHER. MOS GUIDANCE IS STILL INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...MAINLY NORTH OF A TEXARKANA TO MONROE LINE.

[weatherdude1108]

Couple of interesting tweets from Joe B (be sure to check the link for the Venice and Rome pictures, amazing!):

@BigJoeBastardi: "Attention Warmingistas. The MJO is wants to give you a lesson in natural variability and move thru phases 8,1,2,3 http://pic.twitter.com/ORGs3wl2"

@BigJoeBastardi: "Venice ( left) and Rome ( right) looks like a tough day to sip espresso at the local cafe, eh? http://pic.twitter.com/JiK1lbvD"

I saw this the other day. We visited Rome last June. Just missed the action!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... ds-newsxml

[Texas Snowman]

Joe B a few moments ago...


@BigJoeBastardi: "Well what have we here. As per Weatherbell posts and tweets, Euro now says another snow Texas to mid atlantic Sunday pm to Wed am ne."

[Turtle]

Joe B a few moments ago...


@BigJoeBastardi: "Well what have we here. As per Weatherbell posts and tweets, Euro now says another snow Texas to mid atlantic Sunday pm to Wed am ne."

I wish he would tell where in TX. Texas is so big that you can feel winter and spring!

Dalhart's Average Hi/Low Temps: 52, 21
Mcallen's Average Hi/Low Temps: 74, 53

[Ntxw]

Today's model guidance gives a little bit more in the sense of answers. GFS has trended colder but is not robust on qpf (usually is anyway)there's abundant moisture feed coming from the STJ. Canadian has not wavered much and Euro has been persistent for the past several days. A stout cold front is going to pass through by Saturday but the deeper cold air mass is going to lag behind. Models agree that snow is likely to break out in the Permian Basin and spread northeast. Euro and Canadian both say the best chances is north of I-20 particularly along the Red River counties into Oklahoma. This is dependent on how cold the air mass really is and how long it sticks around before lifting out as warm moist air aloft tries to come in from SW flow.

Beyond Monday there isn't much clarity, a warm up is shown before the next storm or multiple storms.

MJO update: It is about to head into phase 8 by the end of this weekend and will likely head into phase 1 sometime later next week. It has been a good indicator of how our weather has played out the past several days.



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[Portastorm]

Joe B a few moments ago...


@BigJoeBastardi: "Well what have we here. As per Weatherbell posts and tweets, Euro now says another snow Texas to mid atlantic Sunday pm to Wed am ne."

I wish he would tell where in TX. Texas is so big that you can feel winter and spring!

Dalhart's Average Hi/Low Temps: 52, 21
Mcallen's Average Hi/Low Temps: 74, 53

Maybe from Lubbock up to the Panhandle ... if you look at the 12z Euro, that's what you will see.

Whatever happened to his "crosspolar flow lookout below?" I'm still looking out!

[gboudx]

Whatever happened to his "crosspolar flow lookout below?" I'm still looking out!

Just the latest of his swing-and-misses this Winter. But I'd rather him tweet like a madman and give some info than hear nothing.

[somethingfunny]

For whatever that Saturday cold front is worth....




*Looks at Detroit and shakes his head at this entire winter*

This still may surprise though given the snowpack in Nebraska.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/outdoor-a ... de-o/61402

Radar animation of the last 14 years

Do not click unless you want to ruin the next 30 mins of your life.

[Texas Snowman]

Whatever happened to his "crosspolar flow lookout below?" I'm still looking out!

Just the latest of his swing-and-misses this Winter. But I'd rather him tweet like a madman and give some info than hear nothing.

Same here. I read him and post him because it gets me a little fired up. Especially after reading another one of wxman's 57 posts (excellent and right on as they may be) that I can forget winter showing up in Texas this year!

[wxman57]

Nothing to indicate anything more than what we've already seen this winter. Storms moving through TX about once per week to 10 days. Snow for the northern panhandle into northern OK/KS. Severe weather and heavy rain across the eastern half of the state. Temps continue to warm in western Canada now. Chances of a big winter event in Texas (to include Dallas and/or the Hill Country) look remote at best. We've probably already seen the coldest this winter has to offer.

[somethingfunny]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/outdoor-articles/outdoor-living/what-does-more-than-a-decade-o/61402

Radar animation of the last 14 years

Do not click unless you want to ruin the next 30 mins of your life.

I just watched that too. Prepare for closer to 45 wasted minutes because you'll probably be pausing and rewinding for certain events.

[Texas Snowman]

So there it is.

Wxman57 sounds the "season cancel" alert on February 9, 2012.

Oooh, how I hope he has to eat those words!!!!

Or at least, that chilly rainstorms come through every weekend between now and May and ruin his bike riding!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Even better, maybe we could have record lows in July.....wait that would make the weather perfect.... *slaps forehead*

Anybody else remember when our lows hit the 50's in summer one time? I think it was in the early 90's.....

Annnndddd of course i couldnt find the records.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: So there it is.

Wxman57 sounds the "season cancel" alert on February 9, 2012.

Oooh, how I hope he has to eat those words!!!!

Or at least, that chilly rainstorms come through every weekend between now and May and ruin his bike riding!!

It appears Mother Nature probably won't provide us with some wintry weather as ammunition, Texas Snowman. But here's how we can get back at the King of Warm mongerers ... come tropical season, let's make sure we spin up a few Gulf systems when he has vacation scheduled! Nothing serious with a name on it ... but enough of a threat to have him on "alert" status for his clients. Then we'll post our own vacation pictures and the proverbial postcard which reads: "wxman57, wish you were here!"

[Ntxw]

Ya can't blame Wxman for the weather. He is just the interpreter! Mother nature is collecting her dues for the past two winters (though I thought we paid for it dearly last summer?!). I hope El Nino comes roaring this summer and keep things mild and wet.

However we can blame PWC for not delivering the goods as promised in their charter/message!

The director ended up briefing with the PWC motto of “you want snow, you got snow!”

<- PWC Avatar removal alert has been upgraded from Yellow to Orange.

[Tireman4]

[
It appears Mother Nature probably won't provide us with some wintry weather as ammunition, Texas Snowman. But here's how we can get back at the King of Warm mongerers ... come tropical season, let's make sure we spin up a few Gulf systems when he has vacation scheduled! Nothing serious with a name on it ... but enough of a threat to have him on "alert" status for his clients. Then we'll post our own vacation pictures and the proverbial postcard which reads: "wxman57, wish you were here!" [/quote]

In the immortal words of Beavis from Beavis and Butthead..." Yeah, yeah..yeah....."