2012 Hurricane Season! Is here!!

[Florida1118]

This is the countdown to June 1st, 2012!
Season is here!

http://www.timeanddate.com/counters/customcounter.html?msg=2012+Hurricane+Season&month=06&day=01&year=2012&hour=00&min=00&sec=00&p0=804

Important Dates leading up to June 1st:

February 21st - Washington’s Birthday

March 5th-8th - 66th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference
http://www.ofcm.gov/homepage/text/spc_proj/ihc.html

March 11th – Daylight Savings Time

March 12th-17th - National Hurricane Center Preparedeness Tour
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20120301_hurricaneawaretour.html

March 20th- Spring Officially Begins

March 21st - CSU Releases Brief Outlook
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/

March 26th through 29th – National Hurricane Conference in Orlando, FL
http://www.hurricanemeeting.com/

April 1st – Storm2k poll begins!

April 3rd - Changes to TAFB offshore marine zones
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20111206_scn_offshores.php

April 4th – CSU releases 2012 Quantitative Forecast
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/

April 5th – TSR releases updated Forecast
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

April 22nd - Earth Day

May 13th through 18th – Florida Governor’s Hurricane Conference
http://www.flghc.org/

May 15th – EPAC Hurricane Season starts

May 24th - NOAA 2012 North Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

May 27th through June 2nd - Hurricane Preparedness Week

May 28th - Memorial Day

This is just a few basic dates. If there is any others you want added, then just let me know (The Countdown is cycloneye's idea, not mine )

[cycloneye]

I used to do these,but last year and now this 2012 one is for the peeps to do it and our friend Florida1118 has made it the two years in a row. Time goes very fast and on the blink of an eye,it will be June 1rst. How will the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season look like is the big question.

Add April 22nd - Earth Day.

[cycloneye]

Add May 20th thru 26th - Hurricane Preparedness Week.

[cycloneye]

2012 had the first Atlantic Basin invest on early Febuary. Is that historic event a bad omen that announces a very active season ahead? Or it may not matter at all? Time will tell what kind of season the Atlantic basin will endure this year as there will be as it always occur before the season starts many factors that will be key to how active the season may turn out to be.

[wxman57]

So far, all signs are pointing to an inactive season. El Nino may very well rear its head by July/August. Early predictions of MSLP anomaly across the Atlantic are for above to well above-normal pressures. AMO is predicted by the Euro to be near neutral (near normal SSTs). Best analogs 1951 and 2001, two seasons of relatively low impact on the Gulf and U.S. Even if we only see 9 or 10 named storms, it just takes one big landfall to make for a very bad year for wherever it hits.

Euro SST Anomaly Forecast:


Euro MSLP Anomaly Forecast:


As a comparison, look at peak season last year:


Nino Forecast:

[Ptarmigan]

So far, all signs are pointing to an inactive season. El Nino may very well rear its head by July/August. Early predictions of MSLP anomaly across the Atlantic are for above to well above-normal pressures. AMO is predicted by the Euro to be near neutral (near normal SSTs). Best analogs 1951 and 2001, two seasons of relatively low impact on the Gulf and U.S. Even if we only see 9 or 10 named storms, it just takes one big landfall to make for a very bad year for wherever it hits.

Euro SST Anomaly Forecast:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

Euro MSLP Anomaly Forecast:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

As a comparison, look at peak season last year:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

Nino Forecast:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

1951 had 5 major hurricanes. 2001 had 15 named storms, which is active. Also, Allison made landfall.

[wxman57]

1951 had 5 major hurricanes. 2001 had 15 named storms, which is active. Also, Allison made landfall.

Didn't say they were inactive, just that the U.S. wasn't impacted by any hurricane. It's where they hit that counts, not the number.

[cycloneye]

In terms of the Caribbean basin,both 1951 and 2001 had a few tropical systems moving thru the basin,and that will be something to watch for those of us who live in the islands,if the season turns out to be like those.

1951



2001

[Ptarmigan]

Didn't say they were inactive, just that the U.S. wasn't impacted by any hurricane. It's where they hit that counts, not the number.

Allison did a number on Texas in 2001.

[SFLcane]

Certainly El Niño could come back...it's not uncommon to go from 2 years of La Niña to El Niño.

[Ptarmigan]

Certainly El Niño could come back...it's not uncommon to go from 2 years of La Niña to El Niño.

If we went from La Nina to El Nino, the next winter could be cold and snowy. 1972-1973, 1976-1977, and 2009-2010 were cold and snowy winters.

[SFLcane]

Certainly El Niño could come back...it's not uncommon to go from 2 years of La Niña to El Niño.

If we went from La Nina to El Nino, the next winter could be cold and snowy. 1972-1973, 1976-1977, and 2009-2010 were cold and snowy winters.

Southern shift to the jet stream which means the southeast is typically cooler.

[cycloneye]

Add May 20th thru 26th - Hurricane Preparedness Week.

Florida1118,the correct week of Hurricane Preparedness will be from May 27th to June 2nd.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/

[MGC]

IF there is an El Nino I expect it to be weak considering the PDO is in the cool phase. Also, the La Nina continues to hang on, still below -1. I don't think the transistion the models are forecasting will verify. I think we will have neutral conditions JJA and perhaps very weak El Nino SON.....MGC

[ROCK]

IF there is an El Nino I expect it to be weak considering the PDO is in the cool phase. Also, the La Nina continues to hang on, still below -1. I don't think the transistion the models are forecasting will verify. I think we will have neutral conditions JJA and perhaps very weak El Nino SON.....MGC

I agree...I think nuetral conditions will previal until Oct where we will see a weak El Nino transition......just a hunch as La Nina is still hanging on....

[MidnightRain]

If I've learned anything from the past several years (and with all due respect to the professionals), that's to take preseason predictions with a grain of salt.

[brunota2003]

Neutral year landfalls in the U.S.:

[beoumont]

If I've learned anything from the past several years (and with all due respect to the professionals), that's to take preseason predictions with a grain of salt.

Sea salt, I hope.

Anyone who considers their preseason outlook as a "prediction" maybe should not be considered a true professional?

[Ptarmigan]

Neutral year landfalls in the U.S.:

Assuming we go Neutral, it does not look good for Texas or Florida.

[brunota2003]

Neutral year landfalls in the U.S.:

http://sphotos.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash ... 2963_n.jpg

Assuming we go Neutral, it does not look good for Texas or Florida.

Here is another chart I did, this one is the number of years out of the 13 that the states got hit:



You can see Florida got hit 10 out of the 13 years, or 77% of the 13 years. Texas got hit 7 out of the 13 years, or 54% of the time.