Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Ntxw]

Ntxw - With the high pressure oriented the way its forecast by most models, I just don't see that ice scenario unfolding. Winds will be out of a southeasterly direction and that normally spells disaster for those wanting winter weather. I think you would need winds out of the north-northeast to hold the dense cold air at the surface. It looks like there might be a few flakes on the front end of the precip shield but will transition to
rain fairly quickly.

Its what I saw from the cmc and euro/ukmet. Bulk of the cold air heads to the east of Tx so an east or slightly se wind will not usher in warm air, it is sw flow that is doing it. 540 thickness is fairly displaced from near surface freezing temps which usually spells some sort of ice for somebody for a brief time. Im not calling for it, I just noticed that caveat from the 0z runs.

[amawea]

WooHoo. It snowed enough to get the ground white here in north Arkansas this a.m. and there is a 70% chance of snow Monday. Tomorrow nights low is forecast to be around 10 degrees! 34 right now in Warm Springs where I live. I hope you guys get some good winter weather before long.

[Ntxw]

Sounding like a broken record, but as usual the GFS continues it's catching up process. Looks wetter than 0z. 12z Cmc and Ukmet still shows what they had last night. The 12z Euro looks remarkably similar to what it has been doing for days. Bulk of the wintry precip (if it is held true) will be heaviest near the Red River Valley from SPS to far northeast Texas. Before changing to all rain areas near and along I-20 could see a mix of precip albeit no model has shown anything heavy as of now Sunday night into Monday.

The STJ is very active so even though Sir Warmness may get his mild days (for a few days at a time) they will likely be accompanied by clouds followed by rain/drizzle. It would be unwise to believe the GFS if it decides to go dry on any system for the next 1-2 weeks. The MJO is linked to the STJ so copious moisture is waiting to be tapped as each system passes.

Edit: For Natlib out west, I think the snow is confined mostly from Midland to Lubbock, but don't be surprised if some mischief gets going.

[somethingfunny]

A tale of two WFOs in Oklahoma. I bolded the sections more relevant to our weather in North Texas.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY AS A FAST MOVING
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS SYSTEM
APPROACHES...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS STRONG FORCING/LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THIS TIME...
INDICATE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY COOL/WET BULB
BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO DRY AIR-MASS WITH
STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING. EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A
CHALLENGE HOWEVER DO EXPECT A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SOUTH OF A
TULSA...FORT SMITH LINE...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO STAY MORE
FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. DRY/WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY SWEEP INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING
ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UNCERTAINTIES STILL REMAIN REGARDING
EXACT WINTER WEATHER TYPES AND THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS
WINTER EVENT. PERSONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST AS PRECIPITATION TYPES/AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE REFINED
INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS POINTING TO THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM
PRODUCING A VARIETY OF WINTRY PRECIP AS OPPOSED TO JUST SNOW OR
RAIN. VERY DIFFICULT TO HAVE SNOW OCCUR OUTSIDE OF FAR
WESTERN/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHEN WE HAVE THE PROGD SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION DEPICTED IN ALL THE MODELS. IN
ADDITION...VERY DRY NATURE OF NEAR-SURFACE AIR WILL ALLOW
SIGNIFICANT WET-BULB EFFECTS SUNDAY AS WE MOISTEN FROM ALOFT.
INITIALLY...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. BY THE TIME MOISTENING TAKES PLACE
FARTHER EAST...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASE IN WARM
NOSE OF H850-750 LAYER. THE WRF IS STRONGEST WITH THIS WARM AIR
INTRUSION AND IN MANY CASES STILL DOES NOT FORECAST IT TO BE WARM
ENOUGH. EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW OUTSIDE OF FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS SUNDAY. THIS POINTS TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW AND SLEET NORTH OF THE
I-44 CORRIDOR AND SLEET/FREEZING RAIN NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-44
CORRIDOR. AT THIS TYPING...IT APPEARS THAT THE TRANSITION FROM
SNOW/SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN TO ALL RAIN WOULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICK
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. IN ADDITION...QPF IS NOT PROGD TO BE
EXCESSIVE. OUR GREATEST CONCERN AT THE MOMENT WOULD BE SOUTH-CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CHANCES ARE
HIGHER AND QPF IS ALSO HIGHER. IN A BIG NUTSHELL...THE MENTION OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ADDED TO FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MAJOR
ICE/SNOW STORM...THERE WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTS FROM AT LEAST SOME
SNOW/SLEET/ICE ACCUMULATIONS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED THIS MORNING TO HIGHLIGHT SOME OF THE CONCERNS. ONCE GREATER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TYPE/LOCATION IS ACHIEVED...WINTER STORM
WATCHES...WARNINGS...OR ADVISORIES MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

As for Fort Worth.... they just say this:

PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE SOME PRECIPITATION
MIGHT FALL AS A RAIN/SLEET MIX SUNDAY EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BEFORE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT TRANSITION THE POTENTIAL TO
ALL RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

And Shreveport:

WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME...AS THE NEW 12Z PROGS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WINTER WEATHER MIX ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR.

[aggiecutter]

GFS precipitation type loop for next 180 hours. It looks like I might see some frozen precipitation at the onset of precipitation early Monday morning:

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi? ... ield=ptype

[aggiecutter]

Did someone say winter cancel the other day. Well, not so fast my friend:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
328 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2012

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-110600-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-
MORRIS-CASS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...
IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...
DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA
328 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2012

...POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE MOVED THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE
WILL BE MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. COLD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AREA WIDE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE COUNTRY. WELL
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE PRESENT FOR A
MIXTURE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS. SNOW
AND SLEET WILL BE COMMON ALONG A LINE FROM BROKEN BOW OKLAHOMA TO
DEQUEEN TO PRESCOTT ARKANSAS. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE POSSIBLE
FROM CLARKSVILLE TO MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS EASTWARD TO MAGNOLIA
ARKANSAS.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AROUND 6 AM. BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND GREATER
IMPACTS ON ROADWAYS.

[orangeblood]

Midland looks like they'll be getting another winter storm later this weekend....an island of cold in a sea of warmth!!! They've hit the jack pot this season and I bet this isn't the last bout either.

[weatherdude1108]

Central Texas has a chance (albeit small chance) of the frozen stuff early Sunday.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 102121
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
321 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2012

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH NORTH
WINDS BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER...DRIER AIR. SATURDAY WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL. SUN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WILL BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND OPEN INTO A
WAVE. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. THE IMPORTANT
QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY
FROZEN PRECIP. THE AIRMASS IN PLACE SUN MORNING WILL QUITE
COLD...RELATIVELY SPEAKING...BUT THE SYSTEM BRINGING THE PRECIP
WILL BRING WARM AIR. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING WILL BE
SUCH THAT THE WARM AIR WILL MOVE INTO PLACE BEFORE THE PRECIP
BEGINS AND WE WILL SEE ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...GFS DOES SHOW SOME
MIXED RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AS THE PRECIP BEGINS. SO...TIMING WILL BE
CRITICAL. IF THERE IS ANY FROZEN STUFF IT IS MOST LIKELY EARLY ON
SUN...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SUN NIGHT
AND MON WITH THE BEST CHANCE SUN NIGHT. SLIGHT RIDGING WILL FOLLOW
FOR TUE. THEN A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH WED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUE NIGHT AND WED. ANOTHER DEEPER TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

[ndale]

I find it interesting that the Austin forecast after mentioning wintry precipitation ends the sentence with, ...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY. Why mention it in the first place?

[Ntxw]

Midland looks like they'll be getting another winter storm later this weekend....an island of cold in a sea of warmth!!! They've hit the jack pot this season and I bet this isn't the last bout either.

Yep it's easier to get precip with marginal cold air and cutoffs in split flow if you have elevation on your side! They deserve it though. Houston, SA, Dallas, Lubbock, Amarillo, El Paso have all clocked in impressive snowfall totals from storms in their recorded history while Midland has always been stuck with the 2-5 inch variety being so far away from moisture source or significant elevation lift.

Edit: The MJO is in phase 8 today and will be going into phase 1 sometime early next week. Expect the storm train to continue.

[cheezyWXguy]

I find it interesting that the Austin forecast after mentioning wintry precipitation ends the sentence with, ...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY. Why mention it in the first place?

To mention that theres a chance, but that its not very likely.

[BigB0882]

Ahhhh, so winter finally found us. And will be gone by Monday. hehe

[somethingfunny]

This thread is quiet tonight. Are we all out partying like it's Friday night or were the model runs just that depressing?

[somethingfunny]

Just checked the 0z euro. It's encouraging.

[Texas Snowman]

The plot thickens a little bit...

-----

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
522 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-111800-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
522 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

...WIDESPREAD WINTRY MIX EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...

AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW AT MOST
LOCATIONS...THEN TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SWITCHING TO RAIN OR DRIZZLE ON MONDAY.
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY EVENING...THEN ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND WICHITA FALLS UP THROUGH OKLAHOMA CITY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A GLAZING OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL BE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

CURRENT FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DISRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL OR
POWER SUPPLIES. THE MAXIMUM SNOW TOTAL EXPECTED IS AROUND THREE
INCHES. THE MAXIMUM ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
ONE-QUARTER INCH. HOWEVER...WITH IT BEING QUITE COLD TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...SLICK AND HAZARDOUS BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...AND SIDEWALKS
MAY FORM QUICKLY ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS.

YOU SHOULD CHECK NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE INTERNET
AND TV SOURCES FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE UPCOMING WINTER
WEATHER.

[Texas Snowman]

Morning AFD discussion from Norman NWS...

-----

000
FXUS64 KOUN 111056
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
456 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SNOW FLURRIES WILL AFFECT NORTHERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AT LEAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY UNDER AREA OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. FLAKES WILL LIKELY FLY NEAR AND EAST OF ALVA...
FAIRVIEW...AND ENID. A VERY LIGHT DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR
THE KANSAS BORDER.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PRONOUNCED UPSTREAM TROUGH. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THEIR DEPICTION OF WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE WRF HAS COME IN
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND ALSO IS SLOWER TO ERODE THE
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. WE CANNOT ARGUE TOO MUCH ABOUT THIS TREND AS
MODELS USUALLY DO ERODE THE COLD AIR TOO FAST. THE PRIMARILY
IMPACT THAT THIS WILL HAVE ON OUR FORECAST IS TO INCREASE THE
AREAL EXTENT AND DURATION OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THEN
RAIN.

ALTHOUGH WE STILL COME WELL SHORT OF OUR WINTER STORM CRITERIA IN
OUR FORECAST...THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADVERSE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND FOLKS SHOULD PLAN ON THAT. WE ANTICIPATE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED...WITH MOST OF THE HIGH-END
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ONE TO THREE INCH RANGE AND POSSIBLE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ONE TO TWO TENTHS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE
GREATEST SNOW TOTALS WILL BE OVER FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY EVENING WITH INITIAL
PRECIPITATION/WET-BULBING AND THEN ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA WHERE SNOW WILL HAVE LONGEST DURATION. SLEET AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED
JUST SOUTH OF THE OKC METRO DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.
MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS WILL BE MONITORED AND IF A CLEAR AND
CONSISTENT TREND IS SEEN AS TIME DRAWS NEAR... HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

NEXT WAVE STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WE
WILL LEAVE POPS GOING FOR RAIN. THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TOWARD THE WEEKEND BUT RUN TO RUN MODEL
CONSISTENCY NOT THE BEST.

[Portastorm]

OK ... OK ... now wait just one, cotton-pickin' minute ... that bike-riding meteorologist from Houston told me that winter was over. But why do I have ice and snow in my forecast for Sunday morning?!


Interesting AFD this morning out of New Braunfels:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
347 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
COOL POOL IN PLACE TODAY SO DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...READINGS
WILL CLIMB ONLY INTO THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
HILL COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN PORTIONS AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER MEXICO
OPENS UP AND BEGINS EJECTING NORTHEAST. AS THE LOW FILLS AND IS
EJECTED NORTHEAST SUNDAY...OVERRUNNING GULF MOISTURE ABOVE THE
MODIFIED POLAR AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN. AROUND SUNRISE TIL AROUND NOON SUNDAY...
ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDING PROGS SHOW LOW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR SLEET MIXED WITH RAIN FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH THE
HILL COUNTRY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. NO SNOW OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
MORNING HILL COUNTRY SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING
AND TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN...
THIS WILL BEAR WATCH FOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN THE HILL COUNTRY
SUNDAY MORNING. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR DEVELOPMENTS
IN THIS POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX SCENARIO. IN RESPONSE TO A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND WINTER
GARDENS AREA EASTWARD DUE TO A GOOD GULF OVERRUNNING PATTERN. RAINS
WILL END FROM THE WEST MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH.
MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EXCEPT UPPER 30S
HILLS. INCREASING CLOUDINESS TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 70S. AS INSTABILITIES
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT IN INCREASING GULF MOISTURE...SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WITH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH DISTURBANCES
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE
REGION...MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE TRIGGERED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRY LINE MIXES EASTWARD
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. ACTIVITY SHOULD END WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS DRIER AIR INVADES THE AREA FROM THE WEST AS THE DRY
LINE PUSHES EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM. HIGHS THURSDAY MOSTLY IN THE 60S. SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A DRY COOL SURFACE RIDGE COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHERN
STREAM. MODEL GFS HAS A MAMMOTH UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
LATE FRIDAY...MUCH LESS PRONOUNCED AND FURTHER SOUTH ON THE
EUROPEAN MODEL. THE GFS OPENS UP THIS LOW AND BRINGS IT INTO OUR
REGION LATE FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT SATURDAY TIME FRAME. DEPENDING ON
ITS INTENSITY AND EXACT TIMING...THIS COULD BE QUITE A STORM
SYSTEM AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

[TexasF6]

WINTER!!!!!!!

WWUS84 KEWX 111038
SPSEWX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
438 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-111245-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
438 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

...WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING...

AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS GULF
MOISTURE OVERRUNS A MODIFIED POLAR AIRMASS IN PLACE. AS READINGS
CONTINUE DROPPING TOWARDS SUNRISE...SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BECOME
MIXED WITH SLEET. AFTER SUNRISE...THE OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
ATMOSPHERIC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AT THE TIME OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING. THUS...MUCH OF THE GULF MOISTURE THAT OVERRUNS SUNDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE OR SNOW ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AS
OVERRUNNING CONTINUES DURING THE DAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
ALL RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

MODEL TIMING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNT UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN. RESIDENTS
SHOULD STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIAL
WINTRY MIX EVENT SUNDAY MORNING.

[Ntxw]

0z euro came in very encouraging for north tx. Perhaps maybe more than just a flew flakes. Not much change on the other models last night. Gfs and nam continues to trend closer to the ec. If the 0z Euro was taken directly, some parts of north Texas may see snow/wintry mix for up to 6 hours. At some points maybe an inch of 'stuff' an hour varying.

[wxman57]

OK ... OK ... now wait just one, cotton-pickin' minute ... that bike-riding meteorologist from Houston told me that winter was over. But why do I have ice and snow in my forecast for Sunday morning?!

Let me know when the snow starts in Austin/San Antonio. Models indicate very little moisture below 15-20 thousand feet. The cloud layer will be between 20 and 25 thousand feet overhead on Sunday morning. Sure it can be snowing up there, those are cirrus clouds - composed of ice crystals. But I certainly would not put snow in the forecast for someone living on the ground.