FABIAN AT 11 AM, COASTAL FLOOD WATCH, ADVICE!!!!

[WXBUFFJIM]

Powerful hurricane Fabian continues to churn northeast of Puerto Rico as it turns more towards the west northwest.

At 11 AM EDT, the center of Hurricane Fabian was located near latitude 20.3 north, longitude 60.4 west or about 200 miles north northeast of Burbuda in the northern Leeward Islands.

Movement is towards the west northwest at around 10 mph. This general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours followed by a more northwesterly track. While the Lesser Antillies, the Virgin Islands, St Croix, and Puerto Rico will be avoided of any direct impact, there are still indirect impacts to talk about. Dangerous surf, high waves, and dangerous and deadly rip currents are likely today through Wednesday for the areas mentioned above. In fact the weather service has issued a coastal flood watch for the northeast facing beaches of Puerto Rico as well as the northern Leewards and the Virgin Islands. A coastal flood watch means that conditions are possible for coastal flooding causing inundation of coastal roads, low lying areas, and beach erosion. As Fabian moves north of these islands through today and tonight, the threat of coastal flooding is very real at times of high tide. That combined with the astronomically high tide makes it very dangerous to venture anywhere near the water.

The next high tides for San Juan Harbor in San Juan, PR will be at 2:02 PM.

The next high tide for Magens Bay at St Thomas will be at 2:50 PM.

Residents and local officials in the coastal flood watch areas should prepare to take protective actions just in case coastal flooding occurs or if a coastal flood warning is issued and this will be monitored very carefully. Similar situations could exist along the east coast later this week into this weekend. So heads up for that!!!

Maximum sustained winds are 140 mph with higher gusts. A hurricane hunter plane will investigate the system later this afternoon. Satellite images would suggest winds are not quite 140 mph and maybe a bit lower. However Fabian remains a very dangerous category 4 hurricane on the siffir simpson hurricane scale and fluctuations in intensity are likely for the next 24-36 hours followed by a slow weakening trend as increasing south to southwesterly shear disrupts the outflow on the south side of the circulation. The east coast at this time should be spared from a major direct hit from Fabian. However the swells generated by this thing will be very huge and could lead to huge waves, dangerous and deadly rip currents, beach erosion, and possibly even some minor coastal flooding at times of high tides. The astronomial high tides will continue into this weekend as well adding to the water levels.

The eye diameter is now 20 nautical miles. Minimum central pressure remains at 945 mb or 27.91 inches. Hurricane hunter aircraft will have a new pressure reading out for the next advisory.

Another update will come out later this afternoon or sooner if neccessary!!! The big story with this will be huge waves and dangerous and deadly rip currents. That alone can result in loss of life and I'm arguing folks that don't know how to swim, that are novice swimmers or surfers to stay out of the water this weekend along the eastern seaboard. That's the best advice I give you folks that are heading to the east coast this weekend!!! Stay tuned.

Jim

[JCT777]

Good update, Jim. As you said, Fabian will likely cause some high tides and beach erosion for the east coast. But it seems increasingly likely that Fabian will not make landfall along the U.S. east coast.

[WXBUFFJIM]

That's the most likely scenario John, yes. This would have been the news story of the year if this thing hit the eastern seaboard as strong as it is. So there is some good news for sure except for the dangerous wave and rip current threat. Beach erosion is certainly a good possibility for the eastern seaboard and possibly minor tidal flooding in those coastal flood prone areas. That should be the worse of it for the east coast as of right now and all the indications are pointing that out.

The mid atlantic will likely have a flood issue due to heavy torrential rains today through thursday as the remnants of Grace and a stationary front combine with high moisture values. The point is we have enough to worry about along the east coast, particularly the mid atlantic. To have a hurricane remain a fish while all this is happening is quite honestly not a bad thing at all.

More later.

Jim

[JCT777]

The point is we have enough to worry about along the east coast, particularly the mid atlantic. To have a hurricane remain a fish while all this is happening is quite honestly not a bad thing at all.

Amen to that!