Texas Winter 2011-2012...

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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3041 Postby Portastorm » Thu Feb 16, 2012 11:13 am

Let's watch the remarks about JB, please. Be mindful of our rules regarding poster comments on professional meteorologists.
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#3042 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Feb 16, 2012 11:29 am

Not winter weather but some beneficial rainfall for south texas :)

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
636 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012

TXZ229>234-239>247-162100-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COTULLA...CALLIHAM...CROSS...
LOMA ALTA...TILDEN...GEORGE WEST...THREE RIVERS...BEEVILLE...
GOLIAD...VICTORIA...LAREDO...FREER...BENAVIDES...SAN DIEGO...
ALICE...ORANGE GROVE...KINGSVILLE...CORPUS CHRISTI...PORTLAND...
INGLESIDE...ARANSAS PASS...SINTON...MATHIS...ROCKPORT...REFUGIO...
WOODSBORO...PORT LAVACA
636 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012

...WET PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STREAM AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
INTERACT TO PRODUCE HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY COME IN ROUNDS...WITH THE FIRST THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THE BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

IMPACTS: RAINFALL...GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS FROM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY RESULT WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 TO 5 INCHES. THIS COULD RESULT IN MINOR...
NUISANCE FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND SOME ISOLATED URBAN
LOCATIONS. WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. SEVERE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO
PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FRIDAY NIGHT.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION. OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CORPUSCHRISTI.

$$
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3043 Postby Portastorm » Thu Feb 16, 2012 11:45 am

Wow ... get a load of that 12z GFS ... about 240 hours out and beyond. :cheesy:
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3044 Postby wxman57 » Thu Feb 16, 2012 11:56 am

Portastorm wrote:Wow ... get a load of that 12z GFS ... about 240 hours out and beyond. :cheesy:


Nice warm-up for TX late Feb/Early March? Unfortunately, I think the GFS loses it beyond about this Sunday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3045 Postby Portastorm » Thu Feb 16, 2012 12:22 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Wow ... get a load of that 12z GFS ... about 240 hours out and beyond. :cheesy:


Nice warm-up for TX late Feb/Early March? Unfortunately, I think the GFS loses it beyond about this Sunday.


Ha, ha ... you wish! I know you're hoping that run doesn't verify. Of course, I am hoping it verifies ... but have little confidence that it will.
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#3046 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu Feb 16, 2012 12:23 pm

Perhaps I'm wrong, but I think Joe B is making that statement (late season cold) based off of the various winter weather components (MJO, etc.) and where they are / will be going over next few weeks.

No surprise. IMO, he's not much of a model hugger/worshipper.
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#3047 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu Feb 16, 2012 12:27 pm

And personally, I've always found Joe B's boldness to be somewhat of a balance to others like the local NWS office (which IMO usually backs down into a winter weather event very, very, very S-L-O-W-L-Y - see the Snowmageddon DFW event of a couple of years ago).
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3048 Postby orangeblood » Thu Feb 16, 2012 2:19 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Wow ... get a load of that 12z GFS ... about 240 hours out and beyond. :cheesy:


Nice warm-up for TX late Feb/Early March? Unfortunately, I think the GFS loses it beyond about this Sunday.


Care to tell us why you believe the GFS loses it?? With the 12Z Euro coming in, it appears you have no models on your side for the late Feb/Early March time period....that is a lot of cold air building in Canada on both models. And with a positive PNA, there isn't much stopping it from coming directly into you're neighborhood.
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3049 Postby wxman57 » Thu Feb 16, 2012 3:32 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Care to tell us why you believe the GFS loses it?? With the 12Z Euro coming in, it appears you have no models on your side for the late Feb/Early March time period....that is a lot of cold air building in Canada on both models. And with a positive PNA, there isn't much stopping it from coming directly into you're neighborhood.


There's very little agreement between the GFS and the Euro/Canadian after about Sunday (72 hrs). By day 10, the GFS has temps 10-15 degrees below normal across the Southern Plains and Texas, while the Euro has the same area 10-15F above normal. None of the models is capable of predicting the pattern correctly beyond about 4-5 days.

There are indications of some cold air building in western Canada around day 9-10, but nothing extreme. Just 10-20F below normal (at the surface).

Can't rule out the possibility of a late February light freeze down to Houston, but no worse than that.
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#3050 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Feb 16, 2012 4:05 pm

Heavy rain looks like a safe bet for my area! :P

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
247 PM CST THU FEB 16 2012

TXZ248>257-170100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...
MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...
PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
247 PM CST THU FEB 16 2012

...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE UNITED STATES AND
MEXICO BORDER REGION WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST TOMORROW AND SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THE PASSAGE OF THIS
COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS...HAIL AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION AND WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS PERSISTING
INTO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE ON SATURDAY. THESE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH STEADILY AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING AND
WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THESE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE
WIND ADVISORIES FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASE MORE THAN EXPECTED...A HIGH WIND
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF OR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.


ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES OR GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND ELEVATED
BAY AND GULF CONDITIONS.

THIS APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIKELY GENERATE OVERALL
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD FLOODING...LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS...ROADS AND STREETS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST FORECAST AND
STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. FOR ALL OF YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER NEEDS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

$$

SPEECE/CACERES
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3051 Postby Portastorm » Thu Feb 16, 2012 4:13 pm

Because we don't see too much action in the "C/S Texas" weather thread and because technically we are STILL in winter (at least per the calendar), I don't see a problem with posts in this thread about heavy rain/flooding ... for this weekend's upcoming event. So, in case any of you were wondering, no worries here. Keep posting.
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#3052 Postby Snow Deprived365 » Thu Feb 16, 2012 4:22 pm

WHY DOES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INSIST ON USING ALL CAPS? ITS TORTURE JUST TO READ A PARAGRAPH! :grrr:
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Re:

#3053 Postby wxman57 » Thu Feb 16, 2012 4:27 pm

Snow Deprived365 wrote:WHY DOES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INSIST ON USING ALL CAPS? ITS TORTURE JUST TO READ A PARAGRAPH! :grrr:


I know that the software in some of their offices was so archaic that there wasn't the option to use both upper and lower case letters. But I thought they'd upgraded all of their software and equipment. Anyone here more familiar with the current situation at NWS offices?
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3054 Postby orangeblood » Thu Feb 16, 2012 4:28 pm

wxman57 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Care to tell us why you believe the GFS loses it?? With the 12Z Euro coming in, it appears you have no models on your side for the late Feb/Early March time period....that is a lot of cold air building in Canada on both models. And with a positive PNA, there isn't much stopping it from coming directly into you're neighborhood.


There's very little agreement between the GFS and the Euro/Canadian after about Sunday (72 hrs). By day 10, the GFS has temps 10-15 degrees below normal across the Southern Plains and Texas, while the Euro has the same area 10-15F above normal. None of the models is capable of predicting the pattern correctly beyond about 4-5 days.

There are indications of some cold air building in western Canada around day 9-10, but nothing extreme. Just 10-20F below normal (at the surface).

Can't rule out the possibility of a late February light freeze down to Houston, but no worse than that.


Anytime you see ensembles forecasting temperatures of 15 F below normal 9-10 days out, that air mass usually means business and is vastly underestimated. Watch out wxman57, Houston will have a low in the 20's within the next 15 days.

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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3055 Postby Portastorm » Thu Feb 16, 2012 4:33 pm

Hefty rain totals on the way for South Central Texas ... nice!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
317 PM CST THU FEB 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE IR/WV SATELLITE LOOP DEPICTS A LONG FETCH OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN ADVANCE
OF THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SWIRLING OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA. THIS PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND WILL
BE A FACTOR IN HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRAVERSES SOUTH TEXAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 50S.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CLOSES IN ON SOUTH TEXAS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. STRONG
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF NEARS THE BIN BEND. PWS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THIS IS ABOUT 120 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THUS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A SFC LOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NEAR THIS FEATURE WILL ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THERE IS A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM GEORGETOWN TO SAN ANTONIO TO HINDES.
THIS AREA MAY SEE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH 4 INCH
AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL
BE NEAR THE SFC LOW...HENCE THE HIGHER TOTALS.
THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN EVENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ELEVATED BASES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL ALSO
ENABLE THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY THANKS TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 60S.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL ROUND THE MAIN LONG WAVE TROF MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW JUST ENOUGH INLAND MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY NIGHT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 70S BY TUESDAY WITH
OUR WARMEST AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING THE UPPER 70S. THIS
WARMUP WILL BE DUR TO WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWEST.
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3056 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu Feb 16, 2012 4:36 pm

orangeblood wrote:Anytime you see ensembles forecasting temperatures of 15 F below normal 9-10 days out, that air mass usually means business and is vastly underestimated. Watch out wxman57, Houston will have a low in the 20's within the next 15 days.



Ooohhh, so the gauntlet has been laid. :grrr:

A final seasonal duel to the death of eternal spring or better-late-than-never winter, otherwise known as our very own Heat Monger and Orangeblood.

My money is on you Orangeblood! :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3057 Postby Portastorm » Thu Feb 16, 2012 4:39 pm

My heart says orangeblood, but my head says wxman57.
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3058 Postby hriverajr » Thu Feb 16, 2012 4:44 pm

Heck.. for no particular reason i will go with Orangeblood (I'm biased towards cold) I want to have some more icy videos ;)
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3059 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu Feb 16, 2012 4:46 pm

Portastorm wrote:My heart says orangeblood, but my head says wxman57.



Come on Portastorm, you're our fearless leader at the PWC!!! What happened to our motto: "You want snow, you got snow!!!"

If you cave in, then Mr. You Know Who wins the Gray Goose Cup...
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3060 Postby Portastorm » Thu Feb 16, 2012 4:54 pm

Texas Snowman, I've been burned too many times this winter by these "oh, the cold is coming in just 9-10 days" runs by both the GFS and European. They've both broken my heart this season.

If we see this kind of scenario on the models by this weekend, I may change my assessment and hop aboard the Orangeblood Polar Express. :wink:

Heat Miser (wxman57) has the hot hand, so to speak, this winter. Hard to deny it.
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