WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 9.6N 113.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N 113.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 9.9N 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 10.2N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 10.5N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 11.0N 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 11.7N 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 9.7N 113.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST OF
HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM, HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
170814Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
AROUND THE LLCC WITH A SLIGHT BREAK OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE SSMI IMAGE
WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS FROM RJTD. SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM 170406Z
INDICATED 20 KNOT WINDS WEST OF THE LLCC WITH STRONGER 30 KNOT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOONAL
SURGE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE LLCC A FEW DEGREES
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. TD
01W IS STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED FAR TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THIS STR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL NEAR SOUTHERN VIETNAM BY TAU 72 WHERE IT WILL
DISSIPATE OVERLAND. DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS TD 01W SHOULD BE ABLE
TO STRUGGLE AGAINST THE MODERATE VWS DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH SHOULD ADD TO THE SYTEMS VORTICITY. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED AND FOR THIS REASON THE OFFICAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
171200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND
181500Z.//
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![Image](http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/6753/wp0112.gif)
It is now TD 01W....the first TD for 2012....