SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[vbhoutex]

Now that we have all had our one day of Winter-on to Spring.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

An update on how the Whooping Cranes are doing down there:

`Difficult' winter ahead for endangered whooping cranes
By Randy Boswell, Postmedia News January 10, 2012

A drought in southeast Texas has the world's only wild flock of whooping cranes facing a ``rough'' and ``difficult'' winter about 4,000 kilometres from their summer nesting grounds in Canada. But U.S. wildlife officials are optimistic that the giant bird - one of North America's most endangered species - will survive the season in good health with help from an emergency acorn roast.

So far, only one individual from the flock of 300 or so cranes has been confirmed dead since the birds began arriving at the Aransas National Wildlife Refuge in late October, having completed the annual migration flight from their summer habitat in Wood Buffalo National Park along the Alberta-Northwest Territories boundary.

But unusually dry conditions along the Gulf Coast in Texas have posed a serious challenge for the cranes, prompting state conservation officers and an army of volunteers in the region to implement drought-mitigation plans aimed at ensuring the vulnerable birds have adequate access to fresh water and food supplies.

An array of windmills around the Aransas refuge, some requiring extensive repairs or maintenance, have been kept running full tilt to pump water to the otherwise parched surface, attracting whoopers and other animals that can't drink from traditional coastal marshlands that have become too salty from lack of rain.

And to supplement the cranes' principal diet of blue crabs and wolf berries - which were harder than usual to obtain in the first weeks after the birds' arrival from Canada - wildlife officials carried out controlled burns throughout the Aransas refuge to give the endangered cranes a crucial nutritional supplement: roasted acorns.

``Cranes absolutely love roasted acorns,'' wildlife refuge specialist Vicki Muller told Postmedia News on Tuesday. ``We're trying to provide them with as much protein and other resources as possible.''

The managed fires in the area, located north of Corpus Christi, don't damage the oak trees but burn the underbrush and roast the fallen acorns, said Muller.

The additional food should help the cranes build up energy reserves to stay healthy during the unusually dry winter and make their return to trip to Canada this spring, she added.

The total population of the whooping crane, the continent's tallest bird, was down to just 22 in 1941, prompting a joint U.S.-Canada recovery effort that has become a global model for endangered-species conservation.

Along with the last remaining, naturally migrating whooping crane population that nests at Wood Buffalo, Alberta, Canada, a UNESCO World Heritage site, there's a non-migratory flock in Florida and a Wisconsin-based migratory flock that has been trained to follow an ultralight aircraft to Florida each winter as part of another unique, Canadian-led recovery project.

The ultralight-led migration faced a bizarre problem earlier this winter when U.S. aviation officials temporarily grounded the Wisconsin-to-Florida flight in Alabama because the aircraft pilots being paid for their services didn't have proper commercial licences.

This week the Federal Aviation Administration granted a one-time exemption to Operation Migration and announced plans to negotiate a long-term solution to keep the project flying.

A historic reintroduction of whooping cranes to Louisiana, which includes birds raised from eggs laid and incubated at the Calgary Zoo, has also suffered difficulties this year. All but three of 10 adult birds introduced to a conservation area in that state have died - including two shot illegally by young hunters - but another 16 juvenile cranes were released there on Dec. 27 in a bid to replenish the transplant population.

A die-off of about 25 whooping cranes at the Texas refuge during the winter of 2008-09 was blamed by some experts on restricted water flows from the Guadalupe River disrupting the cranes' food supply and other aspects of their feeding regime in the Aransas refuge.

In a case still working its way through U.S. courts, environmentalists targeted the Texas state water regulator over the episode, arguing that a variety of industrial developments within the watershed posed an ongoing threat to the binational conservation effort to bring the whooping crane back from the brink of extinction.

rboswell@postmedia.com

Twitter.com/randyboswell
© Copyright (c) Postmedia News

A video of the ultra-light aircraft with the WI Whoopers following on their migratory flight to Florida: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-CRFT_Pvm4

[vbhoutex]

Latest from Jeff Lindner:

Heavy to excessive rainfall becoming likely over the region Friday-Saturday

Flash Flood Watches may be required

Very weak cool front trying to limp through the area this morning with dense fog south and east of the boundary. Strong sub-tropical jet stream aloft riding nearly parallel to this boundary is already helping to set off an area of widespread thunderstorms over S TX and the adjacent western Gulf waters. Moisture will be on a rapid increase today as ESE to SE winds above the surface begin to bring Gulf moisture back inland over the frontal slope. TX Tech meso model breaks out showers/thunderstorms across the counties counties by this evening in a region of enhanced lift from an approaching upper air disturbance and increasing isentropic lift over the coastal waters frontal boundary.

Will likely see a break in the action early Friday before the onset of the main event Friday afternoon-Saturday morning. Strong upper level trough over S CA this morning will dig SE into MX and then eject across TX early Saturday. This system will force a western Gulf of Mexico surface low with strong isentropic upglide over much of the southern half of TX by midday Friday. Expect widespread rains to quickly develop and spread NE during the day on Friday. NW Gulf surface boundary begins to back northward in response to NW Gulf surface low formation and this will add a surface boundary into the mix to help focus training of heavy rainfall. Current thinking is that this boundary will not move very far inland if at all and the threat for the really big totals may be out over the Gulf water however should this boundary move further north than expected, rainfall totals will need to be raised and the flash flood threat will be even higher. Even with the surface boundary remaining near the coast/offshore, there will be very strong lift coming to bear across the region along with the 850mb boundary in the region and both of these will favor some form of heavy rainfall inland. Could also see some strong elevated thunderstorms Friday night with the main threat being hail. System should clear the area by Saturday evening with another 24-36 hour break before the next system arrives Monday-Tuesday.

Rainfall Amounts/Hydro:

Upstream look at PW values shows a deep pool of 1.6-1.7 inch values over deep S TX into N MX and this moisture will rapidly spread northward over the next 24 hours. These moisture levels will be at or above the 200% levels for this time of year and when combined with some kind of stalled or slow moving boundary (surface front or 850mb front) really raises the warning flags when it comes to excessive rainfall and flooding. Additionally rainfall in the past 3 weeks has been well above average and frequent with little drying of the soil moisture between events. The top layers of soil are now saturated and will result in quicker run-off. Our northern counties are wetter than the coastal and SW counties as this has been where the greatest rainfall has been over the past month and this event looks to focus in the coastal areas.

Will go with widespread 1-3 inches of rainfall south of I-10 with isolated amounts of 4-5 inches possible especially under the strongest storms and where training develops. Locations most at risk for some of the heavier totals appear to be right along the coast northward to US 59 near/just north of the surface front and south of the 850mb front. North of I-10 totals will average .5-2.0 inches.

With grounds saturated or nearing saturation rainfall of this magnitude will result in large amounts of run-off. Significant rises on area creeks, bayous, and rivers will be likely if the rainfall forecast verify as forecasted.



HPC (Day 1-3 rainfall (QPF) Totals)

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif

[Rgv20]

Who would of thought of La Nina winter being a rainy one?? We will take it tho!

Flood Watch

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
321 PM CST THU FEB 16 2012

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-171200-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.A.0001.120217T0800Z-120217T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
321 PM CST THU FEB 16 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM CST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...
HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...
WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* FROM 2 AM CST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON

* AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED BY NOON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAIN AND SOME ISOLATED TOTALS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* HEAVY RAIN EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS LEFT SOILS SATURATED. FLOODING
OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE WEEK IN GRIMES AND WALKER COUNTIES WITH
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL EXACERBATE AN
ALREADY DANGEROUS SITUATION. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND COULD
BRING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE FLOOD WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

[vbhoutex]

Update from Jeff Lindner- Get your arks ready.

Flash Flood Watch will be issued from midnight tonight through noon Friday.

Models progging a strong southern stream short wave to cross the area tonight into early Friday ahead of a larger upper level trough/low on Friday night/Saturday. The result is the rapid formation of widespread rainfall and thunderstorm tonight/early Friday across the region as mid level flow backs to the ESE and pumps tremendous Gulf moisture over the top of the stalled front off the coast. Concern is growing that training of excessive rainfall on top of saturated grounds may lead to flooding problems. Additionally, moisture levels will increase to 200% of normal which raises several red flags when dealing with either slow moving or training convection.

Widespread rainfall amounts of .5 to 1.5 inches appear likely by noon of Friday with some isolated totals upwards of 2-3 inches. Flash Flood Guidance for much of the region in the 3 hour time period is on the order of 2.5-3.5 inches with 1 hour guidance of 2.25 to 2.5 inches. Exceedance of these values for their time periods will generate excessive amounts of run-off and likely cause flooding.

Significant rises on area creeks, bayous, and rivers is becoming increasing likely with the forecast rainfall amounts.

Additional heavy rainfall is likely Friday night into Saturday which will only aggravate any ongoing run-off/flooding problems from tonight into Friday morning. May need to bump up total storm rainfall amounts as it is starting to appear the higher end totals may be more in line with what happens.

[vbhoutex]

Morning update from Jeff:

Flash Flood Watch extended until noon Saturday.

Significant rainfall event likely tonight-Saturday for much of SE TX with flooding possible.

Discussion:

Thus far the models have not handled the overnight short wave very well with almost no rainfall at all along the TX coast. Short wave was modeled too far southward and has ejected out of MX toward NC TX with widespread mainly light to moderate rainfall. Surface frontal boundary currently extends from near South Padre Island to off the coast of Matagorda Bay and then ENE toward southern Louisiana. Air mass over the western Gulf shows dewpoints in the 66-72 degree range with PWS of 1.5-1.6 inches. Thus far the moisture transport northward has been rather unimpressive as PWS over SE TX have only increased to just over 1.0 inch.

This afternoon:

Powerful upper level trough/storm digging SE into northern MX will begin to spread strong upper level lift across much of TX from SW to NE. At the surface, low pressure will develop on the offshore frontal boundary and begin the NE track up the coast. Latest model runs are more northward with this low and this raises the risk of the downstream warm front over the NW Gulf moving further inland. Expect showers to start to develop and expand northward from late morning through the afternoon hours as upglide of moisture over the frontal slope increases

Tonight-midday Saturday:

Widespread heavy rainfall likely with flooding.

By early this evening the surface low along the southern TX coast will be moving NE up the coast and then likely inland around Matagorda Bay after midnight. Warm front will surge northward toward the coast and likely inland to US 59 overnight. Strong lift both at the surface from the warm front and surface low combined with a splitting jet stream structure aloft as the upper trough moves into SW TX points to rapid development of bands of intense thunderstorms. While the meso models are more keen on a couple of bands of excessive rainfall, the global models show more of a larger area of heavy rain…neither is likely correct nor wrong with this kind of set up. Expect numerous thunderstorms to rapidly develop from the coastal bend into SE TX starting late this evening and then continuing overnight into Saturday morning. Feel the warm front will move inland due to the surface low being displaced slightly further north. This really places the counties along US 59 under the gun for the greatest rainfall and strongest storms.

Rainfall/Flooding:

Moisture levels are progged to reach 200% above normal and a look upstream over the western Gulf does show such values out there. Expect the formation of a 30-40kt low level jet by afternoon today to help advect the western Gulf moisture into place by this evening. Factors will be in place tonight into Saturday for a flash flood setup across the region. Air mass will likely become almost tropical like near and south of the warm front overnight with soundings showing a nearly saturated air column…leading to efficient rainfall production in thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will be capable of some very intense short term rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour which can get locations in to trouble very quickly. With a slow moving warm front in the region, this will help to focus and possibly train these high rainfall rate thunderstorms along a boundary greatly increasing the flash flood threat near the warm front. Current thinking is that the warm front will move inland along a line from Victoria to Wharton to Katy to Cleveland (near of just north of the US 59 corridor). Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches is likely with isolated amounts of 3-5 inches possible. Bands of training thunderstorms will quickly deliver excessive rainfall in a very short period of time overwhelming primary drainage systems. Significant street flooding is likely along with rises on area creeks, bayous, and rivers due to the already saturated grounds in place.

Severe Threat:

With the warm front looking more likely to move inland, this does increase the severe weather threat along and south of this boundary and then ahead of the cold front as the surface low moves across the area. While shear is favorable, instability is generally lacking, but there is some lurking out over the western Gulf. Meso models have been hinting at bowing line segments near the cold front across the coastal areas Saturday morning and also a fair amount of development ahead of the main line which could pose a weak tornado threat given the favorable shear profiles that will be in place. SPC does not have SE TX in a slight risk (see graphic below). Feel an upgrade to a slight risk for areas south of US 59 may be needed today. Main severe threat appears to be wind damage and large hail with an isolated tornado threat.

Midday Saturday-Saturday night:

Surface low moves into Louisiana with thunderstorms exiting to the east. Main upper trough will move over our northern counties and may produce a period of wrap around rainfall into late Saturday afternoon or evening north of I-10. Clearing and cooler Sunday as surface high moves into the area behind the cold front.

Extended:

Another storm system approaches the area Monday-Tuesday, but moisture looks limited so likely only a few showers. Another more potent looking system may be on tap for the middle to end of next week as this highly active pattern continues.

[BigB0882]

Rain, rain come and stay! We want you here for more than one day!

[MGC]

In their discussion this morning, NWS New Orleans is expecting 2-3 inches across the area. Track of low will put me in the warm sector so should hear some thunder for sure Saturday....MGC

[vbhoutex]

Nice wake up this morning at 5:30am from storms pouring out torrential rains that overwhelmed my lousy gutters and put some water into the house through the back door due to the rainfall rate and leaves blocking some flow. AARRGGHH!! No visible damage and towels took care of it. NOT the way I want to awaken on a Saturday morning though!! Initial round lasted about an hour with at least 1.25" in less than 30 mins. which is what overwhelmed the gutters(which also need cleaning). Two more rounds brought us to a total of 2.28" this morning. Hoping we can start drying out now(I know watch out what you wish for). We have had more rain in the last 2 months than we had for about 8-9 months last year. I haven't looked back at the records, but I know we had over 5" last month and we've had that much this month too, so we are at 10"+. Still not out of our drought, but HUGE improvement which we are very thankful for.

[vbhoutex]

Now will someone set up the weather for next week along the Gulf Coast for warm temps and minimal rains, at least next weekend, so I have a good trip to the Destin area to celebrate my Mom's 80th birthday? Wish I had time to stop and harass everyone but it will be a quick trip. I'll wave as we fly by on I-10 and I-12.

[Stephanie]

Rain, rain come and stay! We want you here for more than one day!

I think it did.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Will try my best to send some of our upcoming blessings down to Texas just for you Tireman (odds are somewhat slim it'll make it to you but I know you'd be tickled pink to get even a couple of snowflakes).

Similar storm expected here tomorrow

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_NH3TmDW-Y&feature=related[/youtube]

[Tireman4]

Will try my best to send some of our upcoming blessings down to Texas just for you Tireman (odds are somewhat slim it'll make it to you but I know you'd be tickled pink to get even a couple of snowflakes).

Similar storm expected here tomorrow

Heck fire Ms Screamer, Wxman57 has just crushed all of our hopes and dreams of winter. Sheesh. We are just wanting normal weather now....sigh...

[wxman57]

Will try my best to send some of our upcoming blessings down to Texas just for you Tireman (odds are somewhat slim it'll make it to you but I know you'd be tickled pink to get even a couple of snowflakes).

Similar storm expected here tomorrow

Heck fire Ms Screamer, Wxman57 has just crushed all of our hopes and dreams of winter. Sheesh. We are just wanting normal weather now....sigh...

Yes, I agree, let's get rid of this cold windy weather and get closer to normal for late February. Spring is fast-approaching. Should be heating up soon!

Here's a TEXAS winter weather video I took last Saturday on Mill Creek Road just south of Bellville, TX. Weather was a bit cold (60 degrees). Not much snow around. Ran into the Salt Grass Trail Riders heading to Bellville to camp for the night, on their way to Houston for the big rodeo next week.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/ride.wmv

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Will try my best to send some of our upcoming blessings down to Texas just for you Tireman (odds are somewhat slim it'll make it to you but I know you'd be tickled pink to get even a couple of snowflakes).

Similar storm expected here tomorrow

Heck fire Ms Screamer, Wxman57 has just crushed all of our hopes and dreams of winter. Sheesh. We are just wanting normal weather now....sigh...

Yes, I agree, let's get rid of this cold windy weather and get closer to normal for late February. Spring is fast-approaching. Should be heating up soon!

Here's a TEXAS winter weather video I took last Saturday on Mill Creek Road just south of Bellville, TX. Weather was a bit cold (60 degrees). Not much snow around. Ran into the Salt Grass Trail Riders heading to Bellville to camp for the night, on their way to Houston for the big rodeo next week.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/ride.wmv

By any chance are you related to the Grinch Wxman57????
Sorry Tireman ... I did mention it would be a slim chance but will try anyways (maybe it will keep beating down the heat the man with the funny hair loves... at the very least)

I'll have to keep trying different puters to see if I can upload your video without buying a program from Apple Wxman57 (or can you upload it to youtube)???

[Ptarmigan]

Yes, I agree, let's get rid of this cold windy weather and get closer to normal for late February. Spring is fast-approaching. Should be heating up soon!

Here's a TEXAS winter weather video I took last Saturday on Mill Creek Road just south of Bellville, TX. Weather was a bit cold (60 degrees). Not much snow around. Ran into the Salt Grass Trail Riders heading to Bellville to camp for the night, on their way to Houston for the big rodeo next week.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/ride.wmv

Heat holds more moisture which could mean more rain and in exchange less warm spring and summer.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Heat holds more moisture which could mean more rain and in exchange less warm spring and summer.

ah must admit it doesn't work that way up here. Twas just hoping to bring a smile to Tireman's face (he is so wanting a cooler spring/summer). Snow would've also brought him great joy.

btw my is just an evil grin (knowing that Wxman57's tropical genes wouldn't like that).

[wxman57]

I'll have to keep trying different puters to see if I can upload your video without buying a program from Apple Wxman57 (or can you upload it to youtube)???

It's a Windows Media file that's playable with Windows Media Player. I can convert it to whatever you need. Here's an AVI version of the file. Should play in the free Quicktime player or the free Windows Media Player:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/ride.avi

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Grinning from ear-to-ear seeing the Texan Cowboys and Cowgirls (and the wonderful stock/wildlife life saving green grass down there). I finally gave up on the Mac and am now on my old PC where a simple upgrade made your file work just fine.

Thank you ever so much for that lovely view of your State Wxman57
p.s. trust me those temps of yours are not cold.

Am trying to remember how to do a screen capture on my old puter (never learned how to do it on my new one) because I noticed the radar/satellite showed the current storm/blizzard, that's heading my way, looking similar to a hurricane (even looked to have an eyewall at one point). I thought that would be neat to have as my avatar.

[vbhoutex]

Now will someone set up the weather for next week along the Gulf Coast for warm temps and minimal rains, at least next weekend, so I have a good trip to the Destin area to celebrate my Mom's 80th birthday? Wish I had time to stop and harass everyone but it will be a quick trip. I'll wave as we fly by on I-10 and I-12.

So much for the warmer temps. Minimal rain was fine.