Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[wxman57]

Bones says he's ready to call it...

[Snowman67]

Bones says he's ready to call it...

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/itsdeadjimwinter.jpg

This is good for all those that want one last shot at winter. Remember what happened last time he announced that winter was over

[ravyrn]

Bones says he's ready to call it...

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/itsdeadjimwinter.jpg

It's still only mid February. We can and have gotten nice winter surprises in March, and even April.

[Portastorm]

Now that is one funny exchange of posts. Kudos to wxman57 and ravyrn!

While the medium-range models have backed off some from the significant frontal passage shown for the late February period ... they still show something besides a zonal flow or a "torch" flow. The Canadian looks the most extreme at this point.

The Grey Goose-swilling mets at the Portastorm Weather Center are still holding on to the possibility, albeit however small, of a little late-winter "magic." However, there may be a "press conference" early next week if the prognosis doesn't improve.

[iorange55]

Steve McCauley chimes in:

OK...a new round of data sets are available to look at, and they are not looking as promising as last nights for those of you wanting one more shot of cold air. Last night, the data were suggesting the cold air would make it as far south as Amarillo by the evening of the 27th. The latest data suggest it will get no farther than northern Kansas.

Now, these kind of model fluctuations are perfectly normal in this kind of scenario and are to be expected since we are still over a week away from the event, so it is just something to keep watch. Will keep you posted!

[hriverajr]

Looking at the models last night and just the general way the winter has gone, and as much as it pains me to do so, I have to agree with heatmiser.

[Stephanie]

Love the Star Trek references!

[Tireman4]

Looking at the models last night and just the general way the winter has gone, and as much as it pains me to do so, I have to agree with heatmiser.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[South Texas Storms]

After the horrific drought we've been through in the last few years, I will NEVER sniff my nose at frequent rain events. The rain has been wonderful. Keep it coming!

Meanwhile, I guess how one define's "really cold air" will judge your reaction to Heat Miser's post. I stand by my earlier post. The medium range models all show it clear enough.

I will never take rain for granted ever again. I can live without cold air this winter as we have been rainy.

I agree. I will always be very thankful for every drop of rain God gives me.

[somethingfunny]

Rain totals over the past seven days:

[Ntxw]

Drought? What drought??? Western Texas and not all of east Texas is up to par yet but hey still got spring storms to go. Eastern equatorial pacific waters are warm (thanks to the weakening nina) + warm gulf so I will bet my snowflakes we'll get a wet summer in Texas! Of course I say this now, just wait until a pesky subtropical ridge sits over us for 2 straight months

Models still develop a large cold pool in Canada medium range. However there is still little indication that it will dislodge into our part of North America. Pacific jet is still active so one system kicks out the next so no cold shot is going to stay for long. PNA is still positive and MJO is still stuck in phases 2-3. Cloudy, damp, cool nights sha'll prevail through the rest of the month! Lets hope for that east pacific ridge to build strong in about a week's time

[Texas Snowman]

Bones says he's ready to call it...

You know, Bones was usually wrong. Spock or Kirk were usually right.

Just saying...

[Texas Snowman]

Continued wet and cool. Yuck! 18 inches of rain in 6 weeks is quite enough. Someone else can have some rain now...

Oh no you don't! After the glee, broad smiles, and outright joy that you've had this season while inflicting misery to those of us on this thread, you've got to take your medicine too.

This pattern may choke off winter cold and weather...but it also chokes off your endless days of sunny and warm bike riding!

Suffer along with the rest of us wxman57!!!

[Texas Snowman]

Tweets of interest today:

@RyanMaue: "18z GFS is looking quite cold for almost all of North America past day-6, whatever that's worth. http://policlimate.com/weather/current/ ... nam_f.html"

@BigJoeBastardi: "10 days of winter starts Feb 23. Quite a bit colder east first, coldest air mass of winter hits pac northwest and plains Feb 26-mar 3."

@BigJoeBastardi: "GFS sees the cold pattern evolving day 1-8 top 8.5-16 below http://pic.twitter.com/Hkv26kBI.

[iorange55]

Model Mayhem

Steve McCauley Update:

OK...a new batch of data sets has come in, and I have finished my analysis. And to no surprise the new data are going back to what we had last night. A plunge of arctic air could be heading south pushing into Texas next week, specifically by the 27th. It looks like this arctic blast just might have enough energy to plunge into North Texas with biting north winds and rapidly falling temps.

Of course, what we will also have to watch is the development of a strong storm system that will be moving into the West Coast at the same time. If the cold air remains in place when this passes overhead by the end of the month, all you snow and ice fans will be rejoicing. For the rest of us....not so much.

But remember, nothing is set in stone at this point. Chaos levels are still high, and thus we are only able to see this event through smoky glasses. I for one hopes it changes big time

Updates to follow...

[Portastorm]

The 18z GFS run has a message for Heat Miser about winter: "Over? Over? Nothing's over until I say it is over!"

[Ntxw]

Even though I am a tad skeptical about a cold snap by the end of the month, I have to agree with Portastorm that the trends from guidance the past several days cannot be ignored. As I have mentioned before, when the PNA is at the neutral part of it's decline (from a PNA+) that is where you look for cold and a storm in the central part of the country. My biggest fear is that once we get to that point, the PNA is then negative (and a stinky -WPO rears it's head again much like the supercold in western Canada back in January) which is what the Euro is showing and the cold simply slides east. When in doubt go with climo until you see something within 5 days! The ensembles DO show very cold air but most of it hangs up in the northern plains...for now.

[Ptarmigan]

Bones says he's ready to call it...

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/itsdeadjimwinter.jpg

Winter is not over yet. Also, there can be freezes in March and April.

[Ptarmigan]

Drought? What drought??? Western Texas and not all of east Texas is up to par yet but hey still got spring storms to go. Eastern equatorial pacific waters are warm (thanks to the weakening nina) + warm gulf so I will bet my snowflakes we'll get a wet summer in Texas! Of course I say this now, just wait until a pesky subtropical ridge sits over us for 2 straight months

Models still develop a large cold pool in Canada medium range. However there is still little indication that it will dislodge into our part of North America. Pacific jet is still active so one system kicks out the next so no cold shot is going to stay for long. PNA is still positive and MJO is still stuck in phases 2-3. Cloudy, damp, cool nights sha'll prevail through the rest of the month! Lets hope for that east pacific ridge to build strong in about a week's time

I don't want another Cockroach Ridge!

[wxman57]

There might be another light freeze in Dallas, but probably not in Houston. I don't tend to believe the 348hr GFS too much when it's having trouble predicting what will happen 3-4 days out. It always forecasts cold air coming 2 weeks out. It's always 2 weeks out.