2012 U.S Severe Weather (Videos-Photos-Stats-Forecasts)

[cycloneye]

So far 99 Tornadoes have occured in 2012 after they revised the preliminary reports upwards.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/mo ... mmary.html

[SamSagnella]

So far 99 Tornadoes have occured in 2012 after they revised the preliminary reports upwards.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/mo ... mmary.html

Of the 99 preliminary reports, at least 81 tornadoes -- across 11 different states -- have been confirmed by individual NWS forecast offices.

Texas --> 23
Alabama -->13
Louisiana --> 10
Arkansas --> 8
Mississippi --> 7
Kentucky --> 6
Indiana --> 5
North Carolina --> 3
Tennessee --> 3
Georgia --> 2
Florida --> 1

Interestingly enough, 12 individual counties have been affected by more than one tornado during the first 42 days of 2012. Nearly all of these occurred on a same-day basis, with two exceptions: Brazoria County, Texas and Burleson County, Texas.

Brazoria County was affected by four E-F0 tornadoes during January; three occurred during the late morning hours of Monday, January 9th, and another hit Pearland just after noon on Wednesday the 25th.

The storm system that produced Brazoria County's most recent tornado, had earlier produced Burleson County's first tornado of 2012, an E-F1 near Deanville. Nine days later, the Burleson County community of Snook would be hit by two damaging tornadoes (E-F1 and E-F2) on February 3rd.

E-F2 tornado damage in Snook, Burleson, TX, which occurred at 648PM on Friday, February 3rd.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0xBllA6AQI[/youtube]

2012's most powerful tornado to date unfortunately hit a densely populated area of central Alabama. This killer E-F3 tornado packed 3-second winds of 150mph as it roared through the cities of Center Point and Clay at ~400AM on Monday, January 23rd. It was responsible for the death of one individual and the injuries of approximately 100 others, as well as millions of dollars in damage.

Supercell responsible for 2012's most damaging tornado.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOVuC034fqg[/youtube]

----------------------------------

Confirmed January tornadoes --> 75 (3-year average is 17)
Confirmed February tornadoes --> 6 (3-year average is 33)

[cycloneye]

SamSagnella, good images there including the youtube videos. I suspect that you will post a lot more images as the severe season heats up in the comming weeks and the expectation is for an active severe weather season as the transition from La Nina to Neutral ENSO takes place.But there are other factors that may play a roll on how active it will be such as AO,PNA and NAO.

[cycloneye]

There is a slight risk of severe weather in the deep south area for Wednesday and Wednesday night.



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[cycloneye]

The latest discussion about the slight risk for Wednesday.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2012

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN/CNTRL
GULF STATES...

...WRN/CNTRL GULF STATES...

SWRN U.S. UPPER LOW WILL BE FORCED EAST INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY MORNING PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM DIGGING
SHORTWAVE OVER CA. THIS LEAD FEATURE WILL THEN EJECT INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY BY 16/00Z ENSURING A BROAD ZONE OF STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD EAST TX/LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF ADVANCING FRONTAL
ZONE. OF PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE DEGREE OF MOISTENING THAT CAN
OCCUR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

LATEST DATA SUGGESTS MODIFIED GOM AIRMASS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
NWRN GULF WITHIN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES INTO EAST TX/LA
WHERE SFC DEW POINTS COULD EASILY RISE INTO THE MID 60S. WHILE
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAY PROVE INADEQUATE IN GENERATING SFC-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...IT APPEARS STRONG LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE CAP SHOULD GENERATE
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN OK INTO SWRN MO/AR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST A THREAT OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH UPDRAFTS ROOTED NEAR 850MB.
HOWEVER...WITH TIME SFC HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE IN FORCING NEAR-SFC BASED THUNDERSTORMS BY 18Z
FROM THE ARKLATEX SWWD TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST. SHEAR PROFILES
CERTAINLY FAVOR SEVERE TSTMS AS SFC-6KM VALUES ARE WELL WITHIN
TOLERANCE FOR MAINTAINING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THAT WARM
ADVECTION MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A LOT OF THE EARLY
INITIATION...THERE MAY BE A PROPENSITY FOR A WEAK MCS-TYPE CLUSTER
EVOLVING ALONG NRN FRINGE OF RETURNING DEEPER MOISTURE.

MODELS ARE NOT AGGRESSIVE IN DESTABILIZING THE NRN GULF STATES AND
WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE COVERAGE SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THAT THE STRONGER FORCING WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY
INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. WHILE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...IT APPEARS THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE JUST NORTH OF RETREATING CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS AND BE PRIMARILY ELEVATED IN NATURE NORTH OF I-20. GIVEN
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF
STATES...ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO SPREAD INTO
NRN AL. FOR THIS REASON HAVE LOWERED PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS
REGION. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH ACTIVITY
WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE MORE
COMMON WITH UPDRAFTS ROOTED WITHIN NEAR-SFC ENVIRONMENT...SWD INTO
THE WARM SECTOR.



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[cycloneye]

There is a slight risk for next Saturday for the SE States.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT AND SAT NIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF STATES THRU THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY CONCERNING SHORT
WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DISTINCT BRANCHES OF
STRONGER FLOW THAT PERSIST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER...A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN MEXICAN
PLATEAU ON FRIDAY APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING CURRENTLY
PRESENT...AND CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A STALLED
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 12Z
SATURDAY.

ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS
CONCERNING THE SPECIFICS OF THIS EVOLUTION...PARTICULARLY TO THE LEE
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...MOST GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES
THAT A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY 850
MB JET IN EXCESS OF 50 KT...ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CYCLONE...AS A STRONGLY DIFLUENT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET
STREAK...SHIFTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...STRENGTHENS IN EXCESS OF
90 KTS.

...CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES INTO THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
DESPITE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION EVIDENT IN THE MODEL DATA...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER PRESENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ADVECT INLAND WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW. EVEN IF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT
STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY...AS COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR PROBABLY WILL REMAIN
DISPLACED TO THE WEST...SUFFICIENT CAPE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN THE PRESENCE OF WIND PROFILES
EXHIBITING LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED
STORM CLUSTER...OR CLUSTERS...AS WELL AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

IT CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT ONE LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MID DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES...WITH PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADIC
THREAT IN DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST
AHEAD OF THE LINE.

SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THE DETAILS ARE LESS CLEAR AS THE
SURFACE CYCLONE EITHER MIGRATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT...OR
REDEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

..KERR.. 02/16/2012



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[Dean4Storms]

I'll be watching this event for Saturday here in the FL Panhandle for sure.

[cycloneye]

Slight risk continues to be the forecast for the deep south.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME SERN TX THROUGH
SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CHARACTERIZE THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN SATURDAY. PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST IS CUTOFF UPPER LOW
LOCATED OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS OF LATE THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS FEATURE WILL ACCELERATE EWD IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED FROM CNTRL TX INTO NERN MEXICO EARLY SATURDAY AND
WILL SUBSEQUENTLY ADVANCE INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY
NIGHT. CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE OVER SERN TX SATURDAY MORNING IN
VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WITHIN DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF
UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY DEEPEN
AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD INTO THE SERN STATES...REACHING AL OR GA LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

...GULF COASTAL STATES...

OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE A RESERVOIR OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS OVER
THE CNTRL GULF SOUTH OF A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT. RETREATING HIGH
PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INLAND ADVANCE OF THE FRONT INTO SRN PORTIONS
OF THE GULF COAST STATES. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN EARLY
IN THE PERIOD FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND SLOW THE NWD
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
300-500 J/KG SBCAPE SHOULD DEVELOP INLAND DUE PRIMARILY TO NWD
ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

STORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS INITIALLY ACROSS SERN TX COASTAL AREA
WHERE WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP
THROUGH THE GULF COASTAL STATES WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT WHERE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP
SHEAR AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS ACCOMPANYING THE STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL
PROMOTE A RISK OF LEWP/BOWS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITHIN THE EXPECTED
HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.

..DIAL.. 02/17/2012



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[cycloneye]

The latest update this afternoon on day 2 is still at slight risk category.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE TX COAST...LOWER MS
VALLEY AND CNTRL TO ERN GULF COAST STATES...

...LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL AND ERN GULF STATES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SRN AND ERN TX ON
SATURDAY AS A SHARPLY DEFINED COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THE TX COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. A LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION OR A LINEAR MCS SHOULD BE IN
PROGRESS AT 12Z MOVING EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY
EVENING. A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST AS THE MCS MOVES ENEWD
ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTH TX SATURDAY...A
WELL-DEVELOPED 65 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SRN
PLAINS AND OVERSPREAD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS JET PATTERN SHOULD
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL-LINE JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE
MID-LEVEL JET MAX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z SATURDAY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SQUALL-LINE IN SE LA SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 50 TO 65 KT RANGE AND 0-3 KM
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 300 TO 400 M2/S2. THIS SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SQUALL-LINE OR WITH
DISCRETE STORMS THAT DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON NEAR NEW ORLEANS AND IN THE MS DELTA WHERE MODEL FORECASTS
SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAX. THIS SETUP MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO OR TWO. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST AS A 50 TO 65 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE
SQUALL-LINE WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE A PERSISTENT WIND DAMAGE THREAT
FROM SRN LA LATE SATURDAY MORNING EXTENDING ENEWD TO CNTRL GA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A NARROW CORRIDOR FOR NUMEROUS
SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY CONCERNS INSTABILITY. IF MORE INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED AHEAD OF THE SQUALL-LINE THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS
POSSIBILITY JUSTIFIES A 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY ALONG THE
PROJECTED TRACK OF THE LINEAR MCS.

..BROYLES.. 02/17/2012



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[cycloneye]

Another updated graphic that shows more detailed information about what to expect during the upcomming event.



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[cycloneye]

This graphic will update all day long with all the reports of Tornadoes,hail and strong winds. The graphic will be uploaded with ImageShack.us to freeze it as the 19th arrives and a new graphic is up.




Link to text of reports.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

2/19/12 graphic

[cycloneye]

According to Accuweather,this 2012 Severe Weather season will be above normal.

Following a near-record number of tornadoes in 2011, an active severe weather season with above-normal tornadoes is expected in 2012.

There were 1,709 tornadoes in 2011, falling short of the record 1,817 tornadoes set in 2004. In comparison, the average number of tornadoes over the past decade is around 1,300.

Last year ranks as the fourth most deadly tornado year ever recorded in the United States.

In 2011, there was a very strong La Niña, a phenomenon where the sea surface temperature in the central and eastern Pacific around the equator are below normal. As a result, there was a very strong jet stream, which is a key ingredient for severe weather.


Often in a La Niña year, the "Tornado Alley" shifts to the east, spanning the Gulf states, including Mississippi and Alabama, and the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. During the extremely active severe weather season of 2011, many tornadoes touched down east of the typical "Tornado Alley," which stretches from Texas to Kansas. Twisters frequently hit Texas to Kansas during the spring as warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico clashes with drier air coming out of the Rockies.

Above-normal tornadoes are anticipated again this year.

Warmer-than-normal Gulf of Mexico water is a key component to the active severe weather season anticipated in 2012. There will be a sufficient supply of warm and humid air to fuel supercell thunderstorms, the type of storms that spawn strong tornadoes, because of the warm Gulf water.

Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are running above normal for this time of year.

The weak to moderate La Niña during this winter is much weaker compared to last winter, and it is weakening even more now. There is evidence that warming is occurring in the equatorial Pacific, so the El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to turn neutral by April. In other words, the temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific will be near normal by spring.

"Areas that seemed to miss out on frequent severe weather last year may see an uptick this year," AccuWeather.com Exert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said regarding the difference in pattern.

The mid-Mississippi and upper Ohio valleys are among the zones that may get hit more frequently by severe weather this year. Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan are included in this zone.

It is highly unlikely that the exact same areas of the Deep South that were struck by tragic tornado outbreaks in 2011 will be hit as hard again this year. However, there could be some damaging thunderstorms and tornadoes in the Gulf states this season.

Aerial view of destruction from an EF-4 tornado that struck Tuscaloosa, Ala., on April 27, 2011.

The Deep South, including the Gulf States and eastern Texas, is expected to get hit by severe weather early in the season, mainly in March. By early April, the severe weather threat will retreat to the north, reaching the lower Ohio and mid-Mississippi valleys, according to Paul Pastelok, expert long-range meteorologist and leader of the AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team.

"If I were in the South or Ohio Valley, I'd be extra prepared this year," Mike Smith, senior vice president of AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions cautioned.

Whether tornadoes hit highly populated areas like they did last year is harder to pinpoint.

"There is no way to know if it (2012) will be as active as last year. Last year we had two unfortunate occurrences simultaneously: a larger-than-normal number of tornadoes plus tornadoes hitting densely populated areas. There is no way to know if the cities are going to be hit in the same number as last year. If so, it could be another deadly year," Smith said.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... ed-1/61631

[cycloneye]

All the reports from the 20th of Febuary.



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[CrazyC83]

Next event likely for late this week. Once conditions get more menacing (i.e. clear it will be tornadoes or extreme), a separate thread will be started if someone else hasn't yet. (I typically start it at a Moderate Risk for anything, or when the long-range forecast hints at a tornado outbreak, and mode is not certain yet).

[CrazyC83]

Like with hurricanes, numbers don't tell the full story.

We could have a below normal year, but if all the intense tornadoes hit heavily populated areas, it will be a horrible year. Likewise, we could have a record year, but if all the tornadoes (including huge wedges) are primarily over open country, then it won't be seen as a really bad year.

[cycloneye]

Next event likely for late this week. Once conditions get more menacing (i.e. clear it will be tornadoes or extreme), a separate thread will be started if someone else hasn't yet. (I typically start it at a Moderate Risk for anything, or when the long-range forecast hints at a tornado outbreak, and mode is not certain yet).

This thread is only to post the general stats and graphics (like a mother thread for severe weather) as the season progresses. As I said at the first post,when a big event is in the forecast,anyone can start a thread for that event in particular.

[newtotex]

I have a question,
Will we see a return to tornado activity in the traditional "Tornado Alley" this year, whereas it seemed like a lot of the activity was in Dixie Alley and other places to the east

[psyclone]

I have a question,
Will we see a return to tornado activity in the traditional "Tornado Alley" this year, whereas it seemed like a lot of the activity was in Dixie Alley and other places to the east

that's a great question. perhaps the easing of the drought in the southern plains will create a more hospitable environment for convection in those regions.

[cycloneye]

This is the forecast for day two of the next event.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CST WED FEB 22 2012

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN TX INTO A PORTION OF
THE SERN STATES AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

TREND HAS BEEN FOR NAM AND GFS TO CONVERGE TO SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
REGARDING EVOLUTION OF BOTH NRN AND SRN STREAMS...WITH THE ECMWF
STILL INDICATING AT LEAST MODEST DIFFERENCES. MODEL CONSENSUS IS
THAT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN STATES AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SEWD FROM NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM REMAIN MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
NRN STREAM TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD NAM AND
GFS REGARDING SRN STREAM CUTOFF LOW...AND ALL MODELS NOW INDICATE
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN OVER NRN MEXICO THIS PERIOD. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND LIFT NEWD OVERNIGHT
WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET THAT WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH A PORTION
OF THE SERN STATES AND TX.

...TN AND OH VALLEYS...

AXIS OF MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH 50-55 F DEWPOINTS WILL
ADVECT THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS TN AND KY DURING THE
DAY BENEATH 6.5-7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOME DESTABILIZATION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. HOWEVER...MUCAPE
SHOULD REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG OWING TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT EML
THAT WILL CAP THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND DEEPER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH BASE OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION FROM KY SWD INTO THE TN VALLEY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE LOWER
TOPPED...BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL
JETS WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50+ KT AND SIZEABLE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS.
THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COULD POTENTIALLY SERVE AS A
LIMITING FACTOR...BUT SOME THREAT WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH EARLY-MID
EVENING.

...SERN STATES...

HAVE SCALED BACK ON SEVERE PROBABILITIES DUE IN PART TO POTENTIAL
LIMITING FACTORS LIKELY TO BE IMPOSED BY EXPECTED THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT SRN STREAM CUTOFF UPPER LOW NOW
OVER CNTRL BAJA WILL NOT AFFECT THIS REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED BY EARLIER ECMWF RUNS. THE 850 MB TRAJECTORIES
WILL REMAIN WLY UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
BACK SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING TROUGH. THE WLY TRAJECTORIES
SHOULD LIMIT NWD EXTENT OF QUALITY MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...BUT RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD ADVECT INTO SRN
HALF OF SERN STATES. WARMER AIR ALOFT AT BASE OF EWD ADVECTING EML
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CAP OVER MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN DEEPER
FRONTAL FORCING WILL REMAIN FARTHER NORTH ACROSS TN AND OH
VALLEYS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE IN THIS
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD AND INTERACTS WITH
RICHER MOISTURE RESIDING OVER CNTRL PORTIONS OVER THE SERN STATES.
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF ORGANIZED STORMS.
GIVEN STRONG LINEAR FORCING...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO GROW
UPSCALE...BUT EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

...ERN AND SRN TX...

A FEW STORMS COULD STILL DEVELOP ALONG SWRN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT
INTO SERN AND SRN TX WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL PROMOTE MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE IN
THIS REGION WILL BE MORE CAPPED...AND COVERAGE OF STORMS COULD BE
LIMITED. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS MAY INITIATE POST
FRONTAL OVERNIGHT WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER LIFT. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

..DIAL.. 02/22/2012



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[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion of 2 day forecast.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST WED FEB 22 2012

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE GULF
STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS MAY BE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING A STRONG
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK NOW DIGGING INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY CUT-OFF FROM
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES...NEAR THE BAJA SPUR. IT NOW APPEARS MOST
PROBABLE THAT AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TURN EAST SOUTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY...AS AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE DIGS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IT IS THIS LATTER FEATURE THAT MIGHT
FINALLY CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE RAPID EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE BAJA
LOW...BUT THE LOW STILL MIGHT NOT PROGRESS EAST OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA INTO THE MEXICAN PLATEAU UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

DESPITE SOME GREATER CERTAINTY CONCERNING THE PATTERN EVOLUTION
...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO /WITH UPPER
60S...LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS/ CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...BUT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HAS
DEVELOPED A SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY COMPONENT...AND LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
BACKING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A GRADUAL
NORTHWARD RETURN OF MID 50S TO NEAR 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS...NOW
PRESENT ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MAY
OCCUR...BUT GENERALLY NOT BEFORE CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS
OVERSPREAD WHAT WILL BECOME THE WARM SECTOR OF THE DEVELOPING
CYCLONE. WITH THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL COLD CORE AND FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE WARM SECTOR...WEAK CAPE AND THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER
LIFT SEEM LIKELY TO SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE THE OVERALL SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL FROM WHAT IT COULD BE IF A POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WAS ALREADY PRESENT OVER THE MID SOUTH AND GULF STATES. STILL...THE
PRESENCE OF A SHEARED AND STRONG DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELD...AREAS
WITH RATHER LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND
POCKETS OF AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO SOME
STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

...LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS INTO GULF STATES...
THE INITIATION OF VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST
PROBABLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FROM THE NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BOOTHEEL/WESTERN TENNESSEE REGION INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. WITHIN AN AXIS OF STRONGER WARM SECTOR/PRE-COLD
FRONTAL HEATING...MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG APPEARS
POSSIBLE...AS LIFT INCREASES ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FORCING. AIDED BY INCREASING FRONTAL FORCING BENEATH
STRONGLY DIFLUENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW...UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH INTO A
SQUALL LINE IS POSSIBLE...AS CONVECTION ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITHIN AND JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE...ACCOMPANIED BY
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS...PERHAPS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THURSDAY NIGHT.

..KERR.. 02/22/2012



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