Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#4221 Postby **MississippiWx** » Mon Feb 13, 2012 10:10 am

Had a good bit of sleet here this morning in Hattiesburg. All the precip is gone now though. That should allow the air to warm sufficiently to keep everything all rain the rest of the day.

Website · #4222 Postby **Brent** » Mon Feb 13, 2012 4:53 pm

NEXT

BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT LESS IMPACTS ACROSS C AL FOR TONIGHT
AS WE HAVE WARMED SUFFICIENTLY TODAY AND MODELS APPEAR TO BE
RUNNING WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BUT HAVE INITIALIZED TO COLD FOR
TODAY SO FAR. AGAIN VERY SMALL WINDOW THIS EVENING NW 10PM-2AM NE.
HOWEVER...SINCE SOUNDINGS LOOK WARMER...HAVE RULED SNOW OUT OF THE
FORECAST...ONLY SOME LIGHT SLEET MIXED IN THE MAINLY RAIN AT
TIMES. IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SWITCHING ALL BACK TO RAIN BEFORE SUNRISE

#4223 Postby **Lane** » Mon Feb 13, 2012 9:30 pm

Sleeting at my house Brent, sure it is going to turn to all rain soon. But was not expecting that.

bella_may · #4224 Postby **bella_may** » Thu Feb 23, 2012 3:58 pm

Saturday night into Saturday morning.does anybody think there's a possibility of some winter precipitation? The past few model runs have been getting colder and showing more precipitation

#4225 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Feb 25, 2012 8:34 am

bella_may wrote:Saturday night into Saturday morning.does anybody think there's a possibility of some winter precipitation? The past few model runs have been getting colder and showing more precipitation

I glanced at the model soundings this morning and for areas of South and Southeast Alabama, and there appears to be a very dry and cool layer of air roughly about 4000 - 5000 feet above the surface between about 6Z and 12Z early tomorrow morning. The potent shortwave disturbance currently affecting extreme South Texas will move east out into the GOM and spread a shield of rain mainly along the coastal region. Some of the precipitation will struggle to reach the ground initially as it falls through this dry layer. However, if the precipitation can moisten that layer a bit and make it inland into portions of Southern AL before sunrise tomorrow, I would not be surprised at all to see possible light sleet reports at the initial start.

No big deal though as even if the sleet occurs, surface temps will be well above freezing and the precipitation amounts will be very light in those areas.

mitchelliii · #4226 Postby **mitchelliii** » Sun Dec 02, 2012 5:50 pm

Time to wake this thread up for the SE winter weather projections!

One Eye · #4227 Postby **One Eye** » Sun Dec 02, 2012 6:27 pm

Yes Please!!! Whats anyone's opinion of a possible artic invasion that I'm hearing later in the month? :cold:

#4228 Postby **Tstormwatcher** » Mon Dec 03, 2012 12:51 pm

One Eye wrote:Yes Please!!! Whats anyone's opinion of a possible artic invasion that I'm hearing later in the month?

I hope so. There is alot of very cold artic air pooling up in Alaska and north western Canada.

bella_may · #4229 Postby **bella_may** » Fri Dec 07, 2012 5:24 pm

Certainly looks like we could have some winter precip towards the end of the month.

One Eye · #4230 Postby **One Eye** » Fri Dec 07, 2012 6:38 pm

bella_may wrote:Certainly looks like we could have some winter precip towards the end of the month.

I can only hope and dream of a white christmas! Where are you getting your info, Mrs. Bella? :cheesy:

bella_may · #4231 Postby **bella_may** » Fri Dec 07, 2012 6:54 pm

One Eye wrote:
bella_may wrote:Certainly looks like we could have some winter precip towards the end of the month.
I can only hope and dream of a white christmas! Where are you getting your info, Mrs. Bella?

Accuweather lol

bella_may · #4232 Postby **bella_may** » Mon Dec 10, 2012 1:07 pm

Here ya go everyone. possible deep south snow around christmas.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 88/photo/1

Agua · #4233 Postby **Agua** » Mon Dec 10, 2012 1:32 pm

One Eye wrote:Yes Please!!! Whats anyone's opinion of a possible artic invasion that I'm hearing later in the month?

I'm all for it. :cheesy:

#4234 Postby **StormingB81** » Mon Dec 10, 2012 2:12 pm

Hope to see snow in NC by the end of the month but being near the coast I doubt it..

CYCLONE MIKE · #4235 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Tue Dec 11, 2012 1:07 am

Not really a good thread to post SE LA severe weather so will do it here. The front that came through south LA this morning brought some rare tornados and severe thunderstorms with it. Had one in north baton rouge and another just south of baton rouge where I live. Actually touched down about 2 miles due south of my street. They were both ef 1's. Had a couple others further east and north in southern MS as well. Along with quite a few severe TS as well. Alarms on phone and tv were working overtime for about 5 hours this morning.

#4236 Postby **Lane** » Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:08 pm

It looks like a possible winter mix? at 180hrs on 12z gfs, for a majority of Alabama and Central Georgia. Remember, I am not a Pro....... I just want to see some snow!

bella_may · #4237 Postby **bella_may** » Tue Dec 11, 2012 5:14 pm

WOW! The NWS has now issued a chance of sleet for my area tonight! This was unexpected but not surprising since temps have been 4-5 degrees below the projected high all day!

#4238 Postby **StormingB81** » Tue Dec 11, 2012 7:08 pm

Lane wrote:It looks like a possible winter mix? at 180hrs on 12z gfs, for a majority of Alabama and Central Georgia. Remember, I am not a Pro....... I just want to see some snow!

Send it to NC Coast while your at it...lol

#4239 Postby **northjaxpro** » Tue Dec 11, 2012 9:08 pm

Things finally look to get rather interesting beginning next week with a very active and progressive pattern taking shape. Well, today it appears that GFS and Euro have come into better agreement with the evolution of a rather potent Low Pressure system and upper level shortwave to develop across the lower Mississippi Valley region around Tuesday of next week. Could be seeing a bout of severe weather breaking out across portions of the Deep South Monday and Tuesday of next week. There will be a decent shot of cold low level advection working in behind the Low Pressure system when it exits the Deep South region by the middle of next week. Depending on the eventual track, there may be sufficient wrap around moisture in the wake of the Low to bring a mix of wintry precip to parts of the Deep South Tuesday of next week.

The Birmingham NWS mets discussed the possibilty of a wintry mix of precip across North Central Alabama with this system in their 7-day long range AFD late today.
----------------------------------------

THE ECMWF MODEL IS NOW COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN THE
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW. THE GFS HAS
BEEN SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WITH THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING
THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR THE COAST. THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE WHICH AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE
SOME SEVERE STORMS MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO RAPIDLY
USHER IN COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR ONCE IT PASSES TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA.
1000-850MB THICKNESS PROFILES SUGGEST SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-20.

bella_may · #4240 Postby **bella_may** » Wed Dec 12, 2012 12:58 pm

But the question is, will it be cold enough and how far south will it get?

Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

Re:

Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

Who is online