Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
951 PM AST MON FEB 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE ATLC WILL INCREASE THE TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AS WAS ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY NO SHOWERS DEVELOPED
OVER LAND TODAY THANKS TO A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE GOES SOUNDER INSTRUMENT INDICATING PWAT VALUES AS
LOW AS 0.69 INCHES ON ITS 1920Z SCAN OVR PR AND 0.94 INCHES ON THE
21/00Z TJSJ RAOB. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MOISTURE RECOVERY OVERNIGHT
PER LATEST BLENDED TPW IMAGERY AND LOW CLOUDS ADVECTING IN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AS SEEN ON THE 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL DIFFERENCING.
THIS MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH FOR ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST PR TUE AFTERNOON.

REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY AMPLIFLYING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE KEEPING THINGS HIGH AND DRY. STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE ATLC WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS TOWARD THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INCREASING THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE
ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO SIG WX ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT VARIABLE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AT AROUND 5
KTS OR LESS FOR PUERTO RICO...FOLLOWED BY SEA BREEZES AFT
21/14Z...WHILE TIST...TISX...TNCM...AND TKPK SHOULD EXPECT MAINLY
EASTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT THRU TUE THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE WED IN NORTH
SWELLS AND EAST GENERATED WIND WAVES. SMALL CRAFT ADVZY LIKELY TO
BE NEEDED BY THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH ALL WEEK AND
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS TRADES WINDS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES ACROSS THE ATLC.
LACK OF RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED FUEL DRYING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE ISLAND WITH SOME AREAS ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND NORTHWEST
ALSO BECOMING SUSCEPTIBLE TO BURNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 69 82 69 82 / 0 10 10 10
STT 73 83 73 83 / 10 10 10 10

[Macrocane]

COLDEST LOWS IN 3 WEEKS REGISTERED ON FEBRUARY 19 IN CENTRAL MAERICA

Finally cold minimum temperatures arrived to most of Central America on Sunday, the coldest temperatures in at least 3 weeks have been experienced in the last 2 days in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. However we've reched that time of year when there's a big difference between highs and lows and Sunday was pretty warm, so ironically we had a cool day yet a warm day.

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize. Near normal in Guatemala and Costa Rica. Colder than normal in El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.2°C (64.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 12.9°C (55.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.0°C (42.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.1°C (61.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.3°C (48.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 9°C (48°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 16°C (61°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.3°C (39.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 17.4°C (63.3°F) Coldest since January 11 2012
Panama city, Panama 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 11.7°C (53.1°F) Coldest since December 7 2011

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras and Costa Rica. Near normal in Nicaragua and Panama. Cooler than normal in El Salvador.

Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 28.0°C (82.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27°C (80.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.4°C (84.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.0°C (69.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.6°C (94.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F) Warmest since September 27 2011
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.5°C (81.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 19.6°C (67.3°F) WARMEST SINCE MAY 25 2011
Liberia, Costa Rica 35.6°C (96.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.6°C (92.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.5°C (70.7°F)

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. I missed the morning discussion as the internet was out,but here is the afternoon one.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST TUE FEB 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN INTO NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EAST OF VIRGINIA WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY
CAUSING TRADE WIND FLOW TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT OVER CUBA EXTENDS FROM A STRONG LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AND WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE EAST WEST AND SETTLE TO WITHIN 200
MILES OF THE NORTHERN SHORES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA IN EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STREAMERS OFF OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SHOWERS OVER
THE EASTERN SLOPES IN PUERTO RICO WERE THE ONLY SHOWERS SEEN FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. AMOUNTS OVER LAND WERE LIGHT AND
GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH THAT CAME OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.
LAST NIGHT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
OVER CUBA IS WEAKENING AND WILL SLOUCH DOWN OVER THE WATERS TO OUR
NORTH IN A MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTATION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
IS EXPECTED TO COME WITHIN ABOUT 200 MILES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE WELL DEFINED. SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA FROM THE FRONT BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE IN
THE CONTINUING EASTERLY FLOW OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND TROPICAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. NO MAJOR EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED.
SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY BUT WILL BE TOO BRIEF TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS. BEST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE IN BANDS OR PATCHES AND
SHOWERS WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS...BUT WILL FOLLOW USUAL DAILY
PATTERNS.

FOG THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO
RICO MAY RECUR IN ISOLATED LOW-LYING AREAS TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA EXPECTED WESTERN PR DURING AFT TODAY/WED AS
MAX HEATING IS REACHED. OTHERWISE EXPECT ISOLD SHRA NEXT 24-48
HRS AS INVERSION LIMITS DEPTH OF CONVECTION AND KEEPS THEM BRIEF.
ALL TAF SITES TO BE VFR XCP ISOLD MVFR CIGS IN SHRA AND VERY
LOCALIZED MTN OBSCURATIONS. WIND ALOFT...E 5-15 KT TO FL100 THEN
NE 15 KT TO FL200.


&&

.MARINE...SWELL WITH A 10 TO 12 SECOND PERIOD WILL BEGIN ARRIVING
IN THE NORTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTHER LOCAL WATERS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 72 82 / 10 20 20 20
STT 72 84 73 85 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1020 PM AST TUE FEB 21 2012

.UPDATE...
INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING IN PHASE
WITH PRESENT AND EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
WITH NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LATEST 22/00Z TJSJ
SOUNDING SUGGESTED DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO BE MAINTAINED WITH
FAIRLY STRONG 3 TO 4 DEGREE SUBSIDENCE CAP BELOW 800 MILLIBARS. ONLY
SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AND ALSO VISIBLE ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER FORECAST AREA AS
CLOUD COVER CONTINUED TO DIMINISH OVER MOST LAND AREAS.

OVERALL SEAS REMAIN AT 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A PASSING ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT
THE VICINITY OF TJSJ...TIST...TISX...AND TJPS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS AT THE
SURFACE THEN MORE NORTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND 20 KTS BY 20K FT.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
546 AM AST WED FEB 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD EAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINTAINING
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL EXPECT THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL STILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND
A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF PUERTO RICO
IN EARLY MORNING AND LATE NIGHT AREAS OF FOG...AND AREA-WIDE IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION...LONG
PERIOD...NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AND THEN CONTINUE LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE WINDS AND SWELLS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASINGLY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN FOR MOST OF THE REMAINING WATERS
TONIGHT. ANTECEDENTLY...SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY.

IN ADDITION...EXPECT THESE LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS
TO EVENTUALLY RESULT IN INCREASINGLY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS...ALONG THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST FACING COASTS OF MOST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...BEGINNING THIS EVENING. THUS...EXPECT THAT THE DAY
SHIFT WILL NEED TO ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATE THIS MORNING
OR WITH THE REGULAR AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE FIRE DANGER WILL GENERALLY REMAIN HIGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY AS THE TRADE WINDS INCREASE A BIT
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. A
LACK OF RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED FUEL DRYING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE ISLAND WITH SOME AREAS ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND NORTHWEST
ALSO BECOMING SUSCEPTIBLE TO BURNING. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS ARE REMINDED TO PLEASE DISPOSE OF ALL FLAMMABLE
MATERIALS IN THE PROPER RECEPTACLES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 83 73 / 20 20 20 20
STT 84 73 85 73 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST WED FEB 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AROUND MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL
MOVE TO JUST NORTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE BY MONDAY BEFORE RETURNING
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. MID LAYERS REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK AND DISSIPATING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
SOUTH TO NEAR 21 DEGREES NORTH NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
DRIVING THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA CLEARING THE WAY FOR PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY WINDS TO
MAINTAIN OUR TRADE WIND FLOW. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GRADIENT
OVER THE LOCAL AREA...FRONTS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS KEPT MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS TO A MINIMUM TODAY. THE SOUNDING SHOWED THE ATMOSPHERE
COMPLETE CAPPED AND DRY ABOVE 6400 FEET. A DISTURBANCE IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW IS ALMOST THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HAS
CROSSED INTO SAINT CROIX. THIS HAS BROUGHT SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDINESS IN SAINT CROIX. BUT EVEN THERE MOISTURE APPEARS VERY LIMITED
ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. THAT CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE SHOWERS THAT FALL WILL BE MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. ANOTHER BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. THEN
BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND
FLOW WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE TO INTERRUPT THE PATTERN OF
MIGRATING MID-LATITUDE HIGHS AND TRADE WIND FLOW.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
FEW PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE VICINITY OF
TJSJ...TIST...TISX. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS AT THE SURFACE THEN MORE NORTHERLY ALOFT
BETWEEN 15 AND 40 THOUSAND FEET.


&&

.MARINE...NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO AFFECT
COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH LOW...LONG PERIOD SWELL. THESE WILL
INCREASE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE. IN THE MEANTIME
EXPECT HIGH SURF IN THE FORM OF 10 TO 16 FOOT BREAKERS ON THE
NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTS AND SEAS OF UP TO 8 FEET. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AS 850 MB WINDS
APPROACH 24 TO 28 KNOTS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 22 KNOTS AT THE
SURFACE WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 72 82 / 20 20 30 30
STT 74 85 75 85 / 20 20 30 30

[Macrocane]

The cold lows didn't last long (at least in the northern part of Central America), these are the temperatures registered yesterday:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize and Honduras. Near normal in Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Cooler than normal in Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.0°C (68.0°F) Warmest since January 13
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15.0°C (59.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 0.0°C (32.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.9°C (64.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.2°C (54.0°F) Warmest since January 16
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 14.1°C (57.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.4°C (38.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.7°C (72.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 19.7°C (67.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.3°C (57.7°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Near normal in Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Cooler than normal in Honduras.

Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 26.6°C (79.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.9°C (89.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.3°C (68.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 38.1°C (100.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.1°C (79.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 14.7°C (58.5°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.8°C (92.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.9°C (91.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.7°C (69.3°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1015 PM AST WED FEB 22 2012

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PATCHES OF SHALLOW TRADE
WIND MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY LITTLE
SHOWERS ACTIVITY NOTED OVER LAND...WHILE THOSE OVER WATER WERE
MAINLY OF LIGHT INTENSITY. LATEST TJSJ 23/00Z UPPER AIR RELATIVELY
DRY WITH ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 800 MILLIBARS. EXPECT
THE OVERALL DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS FROM EAST TO
NORTHEAST IN THE PREVAILING TRADE WIND FLOW. EXPECT A FAIRLY TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS IN
TURN WILL CONTINUE TO HELP BRING PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS AND SOME OF THE
ISLANDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE LOCAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFTS ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. RECENT DATA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
BUOY 41043 NORTH OF THE AREA HINTED SWELLS NOW RANGING BETWEEN 7 TO
8 FEET AROUND 13 SECONDS...WHILE THE NEAR SHORE CARICOOS BUOY 41053
SHOWED WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASED TO NEAR 6 FEET AT 13 SECONDS. EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE HIGH SURF WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE
IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FACING COASTLINES OF PUERTO
RICO AS WELL AS CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS
AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL
AND MARINE HAZARD MESSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED PASSING SHOWER MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE VICINITY OF
TJSJ...TIST...AND TISX. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THE
EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING
TO 15 KTS AFTER 23/12Z.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
435 AM AST THU FEB 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONG SFC RIDGING TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN
FRESH TRADES AND INCREASE FURTHER NEXT WEEK AS STRONGER HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE ATLC.


&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY
ISOLD LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS. AFTERNOONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY DRY.

H25 RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE SUN NIGHT AS BROAD MEAN TROF
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ATLC. THIS TO RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL MID-LVL
COOLING/WEAKENING OF SUBSIDENCE CAP AND THUS AN INCREASE IN
SHALLOW INSTABILITY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY AS TRADES STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS THE ATLC. WHILE THERE WILL BE BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY...THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT
WILL MORE THAN LIKELY PREVENT SEA BREEZE FORMATION WITH VERY
LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED. SO APPEARS WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE NORM NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY NOCTURNAL SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BECOME MUCH STRONGER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS ARE IMPACTING THE ATLC COASTLINE AS SEEN ON
LOCAL BUOYS. ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
AND IMPROVE FRI. WHILE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUGH SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 82 74 / 10 20 20 40
STT 83 75 83 75 / 20 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST THU FEB 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL
MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TRADES
INCREASE FURTHER NEXT WEEK AS STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE USVI AND MOST OF
PUERTO RICO...EXCEPT OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WHERE
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS FORMED DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE THOSE SHOWERS WILL
BE BRIEF AND WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN HALF-INCH. FOR
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING LIGHT
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES AND THE USVI.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE A FAIRLY STABLE AND A GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN
WITH A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE VICINITY OF
TJSJ...TIST...AND TISX. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THE EAST
TO EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 15
KTS AFTER 24/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE LOCAL BUOYS ALREADY SHOWED
THE SWELL PEAK AND THEY WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY
NEXT WEEK WITH ROUGH SEAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 82 74 83 / 20 20 40 40
STT 75 83 75 83 / 40 40 20 20

[Macrocane]

Hi! I've uodated the Central American Cold Surges Thread with the observations from the last event that produced the coldest temperatures since January this weekend: viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2214893#p2214893

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Some scattered showers will pass thru the NE Caribbean this weekend,but for the most part a good weekend is expected.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
416 AM AST FRI FEB 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
SUN. RIDGE ALOFT WILL THEN ERODE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD MEAN
TROF ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE ATLC. TRADE WINDS INCREASE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS STRONG HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE ATLC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS SEEN ON TDWR AND ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS THE ATLC AND CARIB COASTAL WATERS WILL WANE AFTER
SUNRISE. DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR STILL PRESENT OVER THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO INHIBIT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SCT CLOUDS
ACROSS THE WEST. THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS
DURING THE NEXT SVRL DAYS AS H7 TEMPS COOL AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY
INCREASES. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING LATELY WHICH HAS BEEN
NOTHING...THE STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS WILL PREVENT SEA BREEZE
FORMATION/CONVERGENCE GREATLY LIMITING CVRG.

H25 RIDGE ERODES NEXT WEEK AS BROAD MEAN TROF ESTABLISHES ACROSS
THE ATLC WHILE THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING HIGH PRES ACROSS THE ATLC. THIS TO RESULT IN A SIG
INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL WINTER
TIME PATTERN OF FREQUENT NIGHTIME SHOWERS UNDER A ENE FLOW AND
PLEASANT AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE VICINITY OF TJSJ...
TIST...AND TISX THROUGH ABOUT 24/13Z. EXPECT ENE WINDS BETWEEN 10
AND 15 KTS. WINDS INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND BECOME MUCH STRONGER
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...SWELLS ARE SUBSIDING AND ARE NO LONGER GENERATING
BREAKING WAVES MEETING HIGH SURF CRITERIA SO ADVZY WAS CANCELLED
EARLIER. HOWEVER...TRADE WINDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK AND
WILL GENERATE ROUGH SEAS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY ACTIVE FIRE DAY YESTERDAY WITH NMRS FIRES
REPORTED FROM PONCE EAST TO GUAYAMA. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO WORSEN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS DUE TO INCREASING
WINDS. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS FCST TO
BE QUITE HIGH WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (950-850 MB) IN
EXCESS OF 7C AND WITH A WEAKER SUBSIDENCE CAP ALLOWING FOR MORE
BUOYANCY. THIS TO RESULT IN HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND INCREASE
THE RISK OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN PLUMES. EXPECT FIRES TO BURN
HOTTER WHEN COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK. A MORE STABLE AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED STARTING TUE. HOWEVER...THE STRONG WINDS AND
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL LIKELY OFFSET THE STABLE CONDITIONS.
OVERALL...FIRE DANGER IS VERY HIGH TO EXTREME ACROSS SOUTHEAST PR
TODAY THROUGH MON DUE TO DRY FUELS...STRENGTHENING WINDS AND LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 82 75 / 20 40 40 30
STT 85 74 85 74 / 30 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST FRI FEB 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST NEAR THE ISLANDS THROUGH
MONDAY PROMOTING A RELATIVE DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN COAST OF USA INTO THE SW NORTH
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK... RESULTING IN A FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. RIDGE ALOFT WILL THEN ERODE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
BROAD TROUGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN A DRIER AND
STABLE AIR ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...SATELLITE DERIVED TPW ANALYSIS
SHOWS AN AREA OF LESS THAN AN INCH UPSTREAM OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. IN THIS PATTERN...MODELS GENERALLY SHOW FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS PWAT IS TO REMAIN BETWEEN 0.90 AND 1.3 INCHES DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LIGHT CONVECTION IN THE MORNING
HOURS TO BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE ISLANDS AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF OF THE EASTERN USA INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC
WILL INCREASE THE TRADE WINDS FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE USVI...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO.
SIMULTANEOUSLY...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN AS BROAD TROUGH
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH...SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL POOL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...PWAT VALUES WILL
REMAIN BELOW 1.4 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE VICINITY
OF TJSJ...TIST...AND TISX THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL FROM THE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS TONIGHT...
INCREASING TO 15 KTS AFTER 25/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SWELLS ARE SUBSIDING ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATER DURING
THE FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 8
FEET...AS A RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN NEXT WEEK
WHEN A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COUPLE OF FIRES WERE OBSERVED ON THE RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY...MAINLY IN GUAYAMA AND SALINAS. FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE
TO INCREASING WINDS. THE STRONG WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL
LIKELY OFFSET THE STABLE CONDITIONS. OVERALL...FIRE DANGER IS VERY
HIGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST PR TODAY THROUGH MON DUE TO DRY FUELS...
STRENGTHENING WINDS AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 82 75 84 / 40 40 30 30
STT 74 85 74 85 / 20 20 20 20

&&

[Macrocane]

FREEZE IN QUETZALTENANGO (GUATEMALA), VERY COOL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN OTHER LOCATIONS

Finally after weeks of warmer than normal minimum temperatures we've had a relief this week and without the help of a cold front. Yesterday and especially today have had the coldest readings. Quetzaltenango in Guatemala had yesterday a freeze and today the temperature was even colder, other locations in the northern part of Central America have experienced some of their coldest temperatures of the year. These are the observations from yesterday (I will post today's temperatures tomorrow):

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize. Near normal in Guatemala (cooler than normal in the highest areas), El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama. Cooler than normal in Costa Rica.

Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.4°C (65.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14.7°C (58.5°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala -2.0°C (28.4°F) Coldest of the year tied January 20
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 7.9°C (46.2°F) Coldest since January 23
San Miguel, El Salvador 18.4°C (65.1°F) Coldest since January 21
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 15°C (59°F) Coldest since January 6
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.5°C (59.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.2°C (39.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.2°C (70.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.4°C (57.9°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Near normal in Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Cooler than normal in Guatemala, El Salvador and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 28.4°C (83.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25.0°C (77.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.1°C (86.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.1°C (71.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.1°C (98.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.2°C (81.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 13.7°C (56.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 34.9°C (94.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.2°C (90.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.9°C (69.6°F)

[cycloneye]

A note about this thread is that it has surpassed the 300,000 views and that is the first time ever in Storm2k that it occurs. Congrats to all of us who visit this thread to read the discussions or to see what is going on around the Caribbean and Central America by looking at the many web cams that are posted at the first post.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
954 PM AST FRI FEB 24 2012

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
SHOWED PASSING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SOME EMBEDDED SHOWERS MOVING
QUICKLY WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. EXPECTED A FEW TO BRUSH THE
EAST COASTAL SECTION OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...LIMITED OR NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXCEPT FOR SOME
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE AND TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN SOME
AREAS. NO CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE
VICINITY OF TNCM AND TKPK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST AT
10 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 15 KTS AFTER 25/12Z.

[Macrocane]

Congratulations to us! Let's keep the interesting and informative posts

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 AM AST SAT FEB 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH SUN AND THEN BEGIN TO
BREAKDOWN ON MON AS SRN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WRN
ATLC. STRONG SFC RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES OVR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE IT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN MON. STILL LOOKS PRETTY DRY TODAY
BUT THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY AS SUBSIDENCE CAP WEAKENS A BIT. AN INCREASE IN NOCTURNAL
SHALLOW CONVECTION APPEARS IN STORE STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AS TRADE WINDS INCREASE
AND H7 TEMPS COOL DOWN YIELDING STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
THUS AN INCREASE IN SHALLOW INSTABILITY. DURING THE DAY...STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DELAY/LIMIT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND
CONVERGENCE WITH MAINLY CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
LOOKS TO BE ON TUE WHEN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS AND
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DEEPEN YIELDING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
BETTER SHRA CVRG.

UPPER TROF AXIS PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA WED WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND MID-LEVEL DRYING LIMITING SHRAS TO BE MAINLY AT
NIGHT. PRES GRADIENT LOOKS TO FINALLY RELAX SOME ON THU WITH A
DECREASE ON WINDS LIKELY THU-SAT BEFORE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN
FOR NEXT SUN MARCH 04 DUE TO STRONG NORTHEAST ATLC HIGH.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE VICINITY OF TJMZ BTW
25/16Z AND 25/21Z IN SHRA. WINDS INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND
BECOME MUCH STRONGER NEXT WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...WILL CANCEL SCA FOR ALL AREAS AS SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW
7 FEET. HOWEVER...WINDS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY SUN NIGHT AND WILL
GENERATE ROUGH SEAS LIKELY IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. SO SCA WILL BE
NEEDED AGAIN STARTING SUN NIGHT AND THROUGH WED AS WINY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS ONE OF SVRL CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER PATTERNS THAT ARE WELL DOCUMENTED AND THIS WILL OCCUR
ON MON AS UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLC. THIS
ALSO TO COINCIDE WITH THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS. TODAY-MON...LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN STARTING TODAY AND YIELD MORE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS/HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS WITH MORE INTENSE FIRES
EXPECTED AND CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN PLUMES. TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE...WINDS
STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH MON INCREASING THE RISK OF WIND-DRIVEN
FIRES. TUE OFFERS THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS BUT WINDS STAY UP UNTIL THU WHEN PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO
RELAX SOME. BOTTOMLINE...FIRE DANGER IS VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FROM
PONCE EAST ARROYO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 84 74 / 20 30 30 50
STT 85 73 85 73 / 20 30 30 40

[Gustywind]

A note about this thread is that it has surpassed the 300,000 views and that is the first time ever in Storm2k that it occurs. Congrats to all of us who visit this thread to read the discussions or to see what is going on around the Caribbean and Central America by looking at the many web cams that are posted at the first post.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
954 PM AST FRI FEB 24 2012

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
SHOWED PASSING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SOME EMBEDDED SHOWERS MOVING
QUICKLY WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. EXPECTED A FEW TO BRUSH THE
EAST COASTAL SECTION OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...LIMITED OR NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXCEPT FOR SOME
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE AND TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN SOME
AREAS. NO CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE
VICINITY OF TNCM AND TKPK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST AT
10 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 15 KTS AFTER 25/12Z.

Thanks for this info Cycloneye, glad to see that

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST SAT FEB 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO
BREAKDOWN ON MONDAY AS SRN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE NOW LOCATED TO THE NORTH WILL
MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON...CU LINES DEVELOPED OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS GENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AND SURROUNDING WATERS. ALSO ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

A DRIER AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO. AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOWER WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN USVI BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND AFTER MIDNIGHT
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE EAST AND NORTH PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING THIS AREA OF SHOWERS JUST NORTHEAST
OF THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED TO A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE TJSJ...TIST
AND TISX THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FROM THE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS
TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 15 KTS AND GUSTY AFTER 26/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WILL GENERATE ROUGH SEAS LIKELY IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. SO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED AGAIN STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 72 83 / 50 50 50 50
STT 73 85 73 85 / 30 30 40 40