Which storms will be the big ones in 2012?

[CrazyC83]

A perpetual favorite topic of wonders and amateur (and wild) forecasts. The list is the same as 2006:

Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, William

[CrazyC83]

Here is my wild 2012 prediction (10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, 2 majors):

Tropical Storm Alberto
June 2 to June 4 - 45 kt / 1002mb

Just as the season gets going, a tropical storm develops in the central Gulf. It moves up and makes landfall in Louisiana and then dissipates.

Tropical Storm Beryl
August 21 to August 24 - 40 kt / 1003mb

No, the date is not a misprint. After so many signs of "Season Cancel", the second system finally forms. The drought in Africa shuts the tropical wave machine off and makes it really quiet right up to late August. Finally, a wave develops in the deep tropical Atlantic. Dry air chokes it and quickly kills it off though.

Tropical Storm Chris
August 26 to August 28 - 60 kt / 998mb

The Gulf comes alive off a Pacific storm remnant. It rapidly intensifies and nearly becomes a hurricane before making landfall in central Texas.

Tropical Storm Debby
September 2 to September 3 - 40 kt / 1009mb

Similar to Beryl, another wave tries to develop a little farther west. It gets nowhere though.

Hurricane Ernesto
September 8 to September 15 - 75 kt / 961mb

Finally, the first hurricane forms, but it was a tough road to get it. Dry air nearly kills it off too in the deep tropics, but as it rounds the subtropical ridge, it survives to a more hospitable environment south of Bermuda. It passes over Bermuda then becomes a hurricane as it heads out to sea and becomes extratropical - and HUGE!

Major Hurricane Florence
September 25 to September 30 - 120 kt / 942mb

The expression "it only takes one" certainly applies here. It doesn't develop until the central Caribbean. Weaknesses in the ridge send it northward towards the Gulf. Kaboom, it bombs into a Category 4 hurricane in the Yucatan Channel, then gets driven northeast. It makes landfall in the Florida Big Bend as a Category 2, then weakens as it heads for the Atlantic and becomes extratropical.

Hurricane Gordon
October 2 to October 6 - 90 kt / 968mb

Another quick-spinner, this time in the western Caribbean. It is slow to get going, but rapidly intensifies into a Category 2 off Nicaragua. It makes landfall and rapidly dissipates.

Major Hurricane Helene
October 19 to October 27 - 100 kt / 933mb

Just as everyone thought the season was over, the deepest (but not strongest by winds) storm develops in the eastern Caribbean. It slowly inches northward, right over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola as a large Category 1 hurricane. It grows even larger in size and intensifies to a Category 3 east of the Bahamas, then comes right up to the east coast as an INCREDIBLY large storm, enhanced by a stalled cold front. It makes landfall near Hampton Roads as a strong Category 1 (but with a pressure of a Category 4) and becomes an enormous extratropical storm in the Northeast.

Tropical Storm Isaac
October 21 to October 22 - 35 kt / 1005mb

A surprise in the central Atlantic as a depression briefly becomes a tropical storm well east of Helene. It doesn't last long.

Tropical Storm Joyce
December 21 to December 25 - 50 kt / 982mb

Well after the season ends, somehow a stalled front off Florida takes on tropical characteristics. It stalls out near the Bahamas and deepens slightly before moving up the Gulf Stream as more of a subtropical storm. It becomes a Christmas Nor'easter in the end.

[cycloneye]

Debby and Florence.

Note=To our members,dont forget to participate in the Storm2k forecast numbers poll that starts on April 1rst at 3:00 PM EDT.

[Hurricaneman]

Alberto: forms in the middle of the atlantic from a tropical wave July 20th and peaks as a 50mph tropical storm and fizzles out as it gets near the island due to shear on July 22nd

Beryl: Forms in the GOM on August 5th from a Mid Level low and moves into the central gulf and stalls for a day and peaks as a 45mph tropical storm and makes landfall near Houston Tx on August 9th as a 40mph tropical storm

Chris: First hurricane of the season forms from the same way Beryl forms August 15th from a mid level low and intensifies to its peak of 100mph 150 miles south of New Orleans and continues to move ESE towards Ft Myers as a 80mph Hurricane on August 19th

Debby: Forms from an Extratropical system on August 30th in the northeast atlantic and peaks out at 70mph and makes landfall in the Canary Islands September 2nd as a 60mph storm

Ernesto: This one is the big one of the season. Forms from a tropical wave between the islands and Africa on September 20th makes a first landfall in Trinadad as a 50mph tropical storm on september 22nd and rapidly intensifies into a 140mph hurricane in the central carribean September 23rd makes a turn north towards the yucatan channel and turns northeast and makes a second landfall in Ft Myers as a 120mph hurricane on September 27th

Florence: Breifly forms from a tropical wave October 2nd as a 40mph tropical storm

Gordon: Forms from a Extratropical storm and peaks as a 45 mph troical storm October 25th

Helene: Forms along the east coast November 15th and peaks as a 65mph storm and makes landfall on Long Beach NY as a 45mph storm

I think El Nino will also hinder the hurricane season pretty badly with shear and dry air

[Hurricane Jed]

I don't know why but I think the the Gulf of Mexico is going to get punched in the face this year. Beryl Category 2 in Late July (landfall near Cedar Key, Florida) and Category 4 Gordon in mid September (just a wee bit south of Corpus Christi, Texas).

[somethingfunny]

Isaac. You all know why.

[angelwing]

I am going with later names (hopefully the season doesn't start before June):

Helene
Nadine
Rafael
William

Not based on any science, just the names that are sticking with me.

[Chickenzilla]

15 of 17 TCs developed in short periods of extremely favorable conditions thoroughout Atlantic.
Alberto&Beryl-April 29
Chris-June 17
Debby&Ernesto-August 25&27
Florence&Gordon&Helene-September 1&2&5
Isaac-September 18
Joyce-September 26
Kirk&Leslie&Michael&Nadine&Oscar-October 7&9&10&&11
Patty&Rafael-December28&31
The red ones are retired.
Tracking map

[bg1]

My 2012 hypothetical season:

With a weak El Nino, dry air, ULLs, and vertical stability, this season is one of the most boring on record.

------------------------

TD 1--July 15-17/ 30 kt / 1007 mb

The first depression of the season, from moisture from the Pacific, dries up quickly in the face of the Texas Ridge.

TD 2-- August 12-14/ 25 kt / 1030 mb

A tropical wave surprisingly organizes into a depression despite high pressures and dry air. It recurves and dissipates.

TD 3-- August 12-13/ 25 kt / 1014 mb

Another tropical wave; moves rapidly in the open Atlantic (35 mph) and never really organizes.

TD 4-- September 1-6/ 30 kt / 1008 mb

That's right, September and still no named storms. This depression wanders around in the Western Caribbean but does nothing else, dissipating near the Yucatan.

TD 5-- September 4 (6 hours)/ 25 kt / 1009 mb

A stalled front produces a low off the east coast of Florida. This low moves Ne and eventually just becomes a depression east of Charleston. After the first advisory, it immediately spins down into a disturbance by the second advisory.

Alberto-- September 8-10 / 35 kts/ 1006 mb

Another wave which had struggled across the ocean arrives in the Gulf of Mexico. It finds marginal conditions and becomes a depression while heading NNE toward the Florida peninsula. Tropical Storm Warnings are posted for the area, and one-hour advisories are implemented. It finally becomes strong enough to warrant an upgrade early September 10, 30 minutes before landfall on the peninsula. After landfall, it falls apart rapidly, ultimately staying at storm strength for one hour. Becomes extratropical later that day heading ENE on the Alabama/Georgia border.

Beryl-- September 21-28 / 45 kts / 997 mb

Another tropical wave develops south of the Dominican Republic. Only lasts 3 days as a TS before shear starts to take its toll. Dissipates after crossing the Yucatan into the Gulf.

Chris-- September 29-October 6 / 90 kts / 970 mb

The first and most interesting hurricane of the season! Tropical low rapidly gains hurricane strength north of the Bahamas, heads NW and reaches peak strength south of Newfoundland. Eventually turns more north and grows in size, slowly weakening and becoming extratropical. Greenland experiences 45 mph winds as the hurricane makes landfall along its east coast past 65 N! (hurricane winds well to the south of the center) Becomes a very large and lopsided extratropical storm right after this as it heads ENE north of Iceland, and then NE until dissipating at a latitude of 81 N over the frozen Arctic Ocean(!).

Debby-- October 2-4 / 35 kt / 1003 mb

Disorganized showers associated with the ITCZ surprises everyone by organizing near the Equator. Becomes a TS and actually heads south of the Equator! The reverse Coriolis effect on the storm disorganizes it.

Ernesto-- October 16-24 / 85 kts / 975 mb

Non-tropical low WNW of the Cape Verde islands becomes tropical as it moves north and then NE, peaks at Category 2 east of the Azores. Stability, cooler waters, and a front eventually turns the storm extratropical.

Florence-- October 19-30 / 50 kts / 996 mb

The last named storm of the season moves very slowly east across the open Atlantic. Briefly becomes extratropical and then tropical again. Dissipates west of the Azores.
-----
11 TD

6 NS (lowest since 1986)
2 H (lowest since 1982)
0 MH (lowest since 1994)

ACE- 27 (2nd lowest since 1950 (1983 had 17; 1982 had 29)



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[Ptarmigan]

Even if we have El Nino, I would not completely rule out an active season. 1969 and 2004 were El Nino seasons. Some El Nino seasons I remember were normal like 2002 and 2006 in number of storms.

[HurricaneBill]

I know which one the media is hoping it will be: Debby

If Debby makes landfall somewhere in the US, there will probably be a bunch of newspapers with a photo and the caption "Debby Does (insert city/state name here)" or "Debby Does Damage".

[somethingfunny]

I know which one the media is hoping it will be: Debby

If Debby makes landfall somewhere in the US, there will probably be a bunch of newspapers with a photo and the caption "Debby Does (insert city/state name here)" or "Debby Does Damage".

Debby Does the TUTT

[Chickenzilla]

Tracking map

Descriptions
Tropical Storm Alberto
March 18-19/40 kt/1008 mb
Similar to the Invest 90L(Feb),but develops and landfalls in Florida as a TD.Dissipates while approaching Bahamas
Tropical Storm Beryl
April 25-May 2/50 kt/997 mb
Cloudiness from a stalled front develops midway between Puerto Rico and Bermuda.
Firstly moves NW-ward,then westward.Turns southwestward,weakens,meets the Gulf Stream and intensifies.
After some time,ULL dissipates her.
Hurricane Chris
May 11-23/70 kt/979 mb
Wanders near Canary Isles,becomes extratropical then again tropical,intensifies to a hurricane near Madeira,landfalls in SW Portugal as a Cat1.
TD 4
August 11-12/30 kt/1012 mb
A tropical wave organizes to a TD.Soon dissipates because of too fast movement.
Tropical Storm Debby
August 19-24/45 kt/1003 mb
Forms west of Cape Verde,heads ENE/NE,becomes a TS(!)north of Cape Verde and heads E.Dissipates just before landfaal because of dry air and cool SSTs.
Major Hurricane Ernesto
September 1-17/135 kt/916 mb
Forms in far north Atlantic west of the Azores.Heads WSW,gradually intensifies,but a trough nearly recurves it.Becomes very large,continues WSW and intensifies to a high-end Cat4.
Landfalls in North Carolina and turns SW-ward,back over the ocean.Some SE shear weakens it until the landfall in NE Florida as a 50 kt TS.
Parallells the Gulf Coast as a very large TS and dissipates in eastern Texas.Retired.
Major Hurricane Florence
September 8-17/105 kt/970 mb
A small storm.Develops in central Atlantic and heads ENE intensifying.Becomes a major hurricane NW of Madeira.
Becomes annular until a landfall in NW Spain as a Cat1.Meanders there for 2 days.Turns NE very fast and landfalls in France when completing the ETT.
TD 8
October 1-6/30 kt/1006 mb
A tropical wave meanders the eastern Atlantic.
Hurricane Gordon
October 8-15/70 kt/981 mb
As a TS crosses the Cape Verde.Becomes an annular Cat1 while heading NNW.
Turns W and slowly weakens.Dissipates in central Atlantic.
Tropical Storm Helene
October 10-14/45 kt/997 mb
Meanders the west-central Caribbean and intensifies to a TS.Nears Cuba,turns W,weakens because of the shear,landfalls as a TD in NE Yucatan and dissipates over Yucatan.
Tropical Storm Isaac
October 16-21/60 kt/989 mb
Forms south of the Hispaniola,heads WNW.
Brushes Cuban coast and crosses Cuba,then parallels the western Florida coast.Landfalls and dissipates.

[Macrocane]

I still don't want to buy an El Niño but I will give my numbers in the poll in a couple of months. I think the big ones are going to be:

Beryl: a cat 2/cat 3 in July affecting the Caribbean and/or Central America.
Ernesto: cat 3/cat 4 affecting the Caribbean and somewhere between Misssissippi and the East COast of US:
Isaac: cat 4/cat 5 in September typical I storm, a Cape Verde long tracker, enters the Gulf and makes landfall as a cat 3.
Michael: cat 3 in October with a Wilma-like track.

[Andrew92]

Ernesto and Isaac....Ernesto looks well-positioned by this upcoming hurricane season if El Nino kicks in, and I've had vibes on Isaac for years.

-Andrew92

[ROCK]

Ernesto and Isaac....Ernesto looks well-positioned by this upcoming hurricane season if El Nino kicks in, and I've had vibes on Isaac for years.

-Andrew92

I will second that.....both of those names sound ominious to me..Isaac more so...probably because I am reading Isaac's Storm again.

[HurricaneBill]

Florence is the only original "F" name left. (Frederic, Frances, Floyd, Felix, and Fran have been retired)

Isaac is the only original "I" name left. (Isabel, Ivan, Irene (most likely), Iris, and Isidore have been retired)

[Hurricane Jed]

Florence has been floating around for awhile. 8 times. 53 (3), 54 (1), 60 (TS), 64 (TS), 88 (1), 94 (2), 00 (1), 06 (1). Not too impressive. Some names such as Dean or Fran though are consistently used for weak storms for years until they decide to rear their ugly head. Dean 2007, Fran 1996.

[wxman57]

I am thinking we won't see past J this year (10 storms). Of those, could it be the year of Debby, a late August storm that strikes the Gulf coast?

[Blown Away]

Traditionally the "big one" fell in the B,C,D storms, but it seems more marginal systems get named, so I'm saying we will be through the D storm come late August and the "big one" will be Florence, a classic late August/early September CV system. Florence will take a classic track through the NW Caribbean, into the Bahamas, through the FL Straits, and into Miss/Alabama/Fl Panhandle.