#22 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Feb 28, 2012 7:52 am
WTIO30 FMEE 281224
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/11/20112012
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 11 (EX-IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 44.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/0 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/29 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 43.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2012/02/29 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 43.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/03/01 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 42.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/03/01 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/03/02 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 41.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/03/02 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 40.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/03 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 36.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/03/04 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 34.2 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS COME BACK OVER SEAS YESTERDAY, THEN HAS
TRACKED ALONG THE NORTH-WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTRE REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCALIZE.
CURRENT POSITION IS ESTIMATED THANKS TO 0900Z AND 1200Z MALAGASY
OBSERVATIONS (BELASAMPY AND MAJUNGA) AND JUAN DE NOVA.THE CLOCKWISECIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO GO FAR FROM THE COAST IN THE NEXT HOURS,
COMING BACK OVER A COMPLETE OVERSEAS ENVIRONMENT.
MOST OF AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY WEST ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXISTING IN THE SOUTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS.
THE MODERATE EASTERLY WINDSHEAR, IS ALWAYS LIMITING SYSTEM
INTENSIFICATION, BUT IT IS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN.
EASTERLY WINDSHEAR SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATION BUT THIS
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE VERY GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE TO A STRONG POLEWARD ONE,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVE AND BECOME
FAVOURABLE FOR SIGNIFICATIVE FURTHER RE-INTENSIFICATION.
AN OVERSEA TRACK IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CHANNEL WITHIN THIS FAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW EX-IRINA TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE
ON WEDNESDAY. BEYOND AN EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT SHOULD
WEAKEN IT ON SATURDAY.
NWP AVAILABLE FORECAST TRACKS INVITE THE INHABITANTS OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE TO THE GREATEST CAUTION.
IT'S CURRENTLY NOT POSSIBLE TO PRECISELY TARGET THE POTENTIAL
THREATENED AREAS. THE ALL LONG MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE FROM 18S TO 27S
SHOULD BE INFLUENCES DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY BY THIS METEOR.
CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNING. IT
REMAINS HOWEVER CLOSELY MONITORED IN RELATIONSHIP WITH ITS POTENTIEL
FOR INTENSIFICATION.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATIONS ABOUT THIS SYSTEM WHEN NO TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORECAST ADVISORY (WTIO30) IS ISSUED, REFER TO BULLETIN AWIO20 FOR
CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED BY THE RSMC DAILY AT 1200Z.
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