2012 U.S Severe Weather (Videos-Photos-Stats-Forecasts)

[cycloneye]

Here is a summary of the severe weather events by Accuweather.

:05 a.m. CST: A tornado was reported by a state trooper near Newburgh, Ind. Widespread damage occurred throughout the city proper. Rescue teams are responding.

5:37 a.m. CST: A tornado confirmed by a trained spotter in Harrisburg, Ill., caused extensive damage in the southeastern part of town. There are reports about a few deaths, but this has not yet been confirmed. Search and rescue is still in progress. Nearby, power flashes were observed with a possible tornado on the ground in Metropolis, Ill.

5:32 a.m. CST: The Associated Press is reporting that the person who died in Buffalo, Mo., was a resident of a mobile home park. A local sheriff also says that 13 others were injured when the tornado passed through the same trailer park. In addition, the AP is reporting at least a dozen injuries in Branson, where rescuers were combing through homes trying to help people who are trapped.

5:03 a.m. CST: A possible tornado touched down north and west of Mounds, Ill. A cross arm ripped off of a railroad sign and was launched through the vehicle of a trained spotter.

4:50 a.m. CST: A possible tornado destroyed a barn and chicken farm, damaged a house, and caused damaged numerous trees and power lines.

4:10 a.m. CST: Structural damage was reported in Oak Ridge, Mo., from a possible tornado, which was confirmed on the ground by spotters near Grand Tower, Ill., a short time later.

3:35 a.m. CST: Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback has declared a state of emergency in the state in the wake of tornado damage.

2:37 a.m. CST: There are additional reports of major structural damage and building collapses in Branson, Mo. All firefighters in the town have been told to report as rescues are ongoing.

1:35 a.m. CST: A confirmed tornado has damaged multiple structures in the town of Branson, Mo., including a hotel, restaurant and gas station.

1:25 a.m. CST: KOLR-TV in Springfield, Mo., is reporting that at least one person is dead in the wake of a tornado in Buffalo, Mo.

12:35 a.m. CST: Laclede County, Mo., Emergency Management reported debris falling from the sky in Lebanon, possibly from a nearby tornado.

11:48 p.m. CST: AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions Meteorologist Cory Mottice relayed a report of blown out windows and a barn destroyed by a possible tornado in Arcola, Mo.

11:30 p.m. CST: The first photo of potential tornado damage in Harveyville, Kan

[cycloneye]

There is a Moderate Risk for today. Our friend CrazyC83 has a thread for this event. viewtopic.php?f=24&t=112530&p=2215269#p2215269

[CrazyC83]

I will be busy later this morning (writing a test in a weather course!) but will cover it this afternoon.

[cycloneye]

Slight Risk for day 3

[cycloneye]

Graphic of all preliminary reports for the 29th updated as they come. Hopefully,SPC updates the stats for the year soon.

[cycloneye]

Updated 2012 stats of Tornados,Hail and Wind Reports

The 2012 total of Tornados has risen to 130.

Code: Select all

Day Total Torn Hail Wind
Jan 2012 554 97 92 365
Feb 2012 584 33 169 382
Mar 2012 0 0 0 0
Apr 2012 0 0 0 0
May 2012 0 0 0 0
Jun 2012 0 0 0 0
Jul 2012 0 0 0 0
Aug 2012 0 0 0 0
Sep 2012 0 0 0 0
Oct 2012 0 0 0 0
Nov 2012 0 0 0 0
Dec 2012 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 1138 130 261 747


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/mo ... mmary.html

[cycloneye]

Looking at those latest stats,is scary to see how active and more sadly, very deadly so far this 2012 season has been already and the heart of severe weather season has not arrived yet.

[CrazyC83]

Friday looks bad too.

[StormingB81]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html

Am I reading this were we are already above the number of tornadoes through the first 2 months exceeds last years number through Feb. Lets hope it slows down because we all know how 2011 was. Lets hope 2012 doesn't surpass 2011. Scary stats if I am reading it right.

[cycloneye]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html

Am I reading this were we are already above the number of tornadoes through the first 2 months exceeds last years number through Feb. Lets hope it slows down because we all know how 2011 was. Lets hope 2012 doesn't surpass 2011. Scary stats if I am reading it right.

Yes, those stats are right and it signals a very active 2012 severe season and one of the culprits for sure will be the GOM warm waters that are above normally warm for this time of the year.

[cycloneye]

A Moderate Risk category has been issued for March 2-3. There is a thread for that event. viewtopic.php?f=24&t=112535&p=2215401#p2215401

I am sure that the overall 2012 stats will be updated later today. The last number from Wednesday's update of all 2012 tornados was 130.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CST THU MAR 01 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS
MS...AL...TN...KY...INDIANA...OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM ARKLAMISS REGION
ENEWD TO CAROLINAS AND NWD TO SWRN PA...INDIANA AND OZARKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY ATTM...WITH HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN CONUS IN ADVANCE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT. RESULT THROUGH DAY-1 WILL BE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS MOST OF WRN CONUS...MOVING EWD TO CENTRAL CONUS DAY-2. BY
START OF PERIOD...EXPECT NRN-STREAM MID-UPPER CYCLONE LOCATED OVER
ND/MB BORDER REGION...AND BASAL 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
4-CORNERS REGION. DOWNSTREAM FROM THAT PERTURBATION...LOWER-
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS KS. VORTICITY
FIELDS WITH LATTER TWO SHORTWAVES SHOULD REMAIN WELL-CONNECTED...
EFFECTIVELY RESULTING IN POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM ERN IA/NRN IL
REGION TO ERN NM BY 3/00Z. BY 3/12Z...EXPECT MID-UPPER LOW OVER LH
OR ADJOINING PORTIONS ONT...WITH TROUGH SWWD OVER LOWEST SEGMENT OF
OH RIVER...OK...AND SRN NM.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT NOW IMPINGING ON SWRN APPALACHIANS/TN VALLEY/NRN
LA SHOULD MOVE BACK N AS WARM FRONT THIS PERIOD...WRN PORTION OF
WHICH WILL ATTACH WITH SFC FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER MO BY 2/12Z. LOW
WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD SRN LOWER MI BY 3/00Z...THEN
OCCLUDE AND BECOME STACKED WITH MIDLEVEL VORTEX BY END OF PERIOD.
WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NEWD OVER MID-UPPER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH PERIOD. COLD FRONT TRAILING SFC LOW SHOULD
START PERIOD OVER OZARKS...SERN OK AND W-CENTRAL TX. BY
3/00Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH ERN INDIANA/WRN OH...SERN AR...AND
MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN. BY 3/12Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH
CENTRAL/ERN PA...WRN VA...NRN GA...AND SRN AL.

...OZARKS...LOWER MS/TN VALLEY AND AL TO OH VALLEY STATES...
SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS MAY BE CARRY OVER FROM LATE
DAY-1 PERIOD OVER PORTIONS OZARKS...LOWER OH VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH
REGIONS...WITH FAVORABLE CAPE ALOFT AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR HAIL.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO BECOME SFC-BASED BY
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SVR. OTHER SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT. TSTMS SHOULD BE FAST-MOVING...COVERING LONG SWATHS WITH
THEIR SVR THREATS OVER ANY GIVEN PERIOD OF TIME.

AIR MASS AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT AND IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION
SHOULD DESTABILIZE FAVORABLY AMIDST STG LOW-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. INTENSE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
SPREAD OVER MUCH OF WARM SECTOR...ALONG WITH SFC DEW POINTS
INCREASING FROM MID 50S OVER OH TO MID 60S OVER PORTIONS MS/AL. IN
TANDEM WITH DIURNAL SFC HEATING...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE 250-500
J/KG OVER PORTIONS OH/INDIANA...TO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE OVER
PORTIONS TN/KY...THEN DECREASING SOMEWHAT FARTHER S DUE TO
INFLUENCES OF STABLE LAYERS ALOFT. DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
EXTENT/COVERAGE OF VARIOUS CONVECTIVE MODES THIS FAR OUT...EXPECT
WEAK CINH...BROADLY FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE...AND
RELATIVELY DENSE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LIKELY TO IMPINGE ON THAT
SETTING. AS SUCH...NUMEROUS SVR WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STG TORNADOES FROM EITHER SUPERCELLS OR QLCS-VORTEX
MECHANISMS. AT LEAST A FEW WIND EVENTS AOA 65 KT AND
LONG-TRACK/SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...
SIGNIFICANT-SVR AREA IS BEING INTRODUCED...DRIVING CATEGORICAL MDT
RISK WHERE OVERLAID WITH RELATIVELY DENSE 45% TOTAL-SVR PROBABILITY.

...CAROLINAS...
INITIALLY SEPARATE SVR POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH MAY CONNECT WITH ERN FRINGES OF LARGER SVR
AREA LATE IN PERIOD AS LATTER REGIME SHIFTS EWD. SRN BRANCH OF STG
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING WARM FRONT.
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES ATTM RESIDE IN STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL
LIFT...AND THEREFORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HOWEVER...DIURNAL
HEATING...PRESENCE OF REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE...AND
WEAK MLCINH SHOULD PERMIT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS TO
DEVELOP IN REGIME OF 60S F WARM-SECTOR DEW POINTS. ACCORDINGLY
ADJUSTED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG LATE-AFTERNOON MLCAPE
POSSIBLE...JUXTAPOSED WITH 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.
MAIN THREAT MAY BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH ISOLATED HAIL ALSO EXPECTED.
FCST HODOGRAPHS ALSO ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL/TORNADO RISK...MAIN
QUESTIONS BEING COVERAGE/DURATION OF FAVORABLE STORM MODES.

..EDWARDS.. 03/01/2012

[cycloneye]

The updated graphic for today still has the slight risk area.Stay safe those who may be in the area of concern. A reminder that there is a thread for Friday's Severe outbreak.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST THU MAR 01 2012

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
OZARK PLATEAU INTO MID SOUTH...

...SYNOPSIS...

SWD PROPAGATION OF MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS FROM THE PACIFIC
NW INTO SRN ROCKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF WRN
CONUS TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...LEE CYCLONE OVER CNTRL KS WILL DEVELOP ENEWD INTO THE LOWER
MO VALLEY WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING FROM OK INTO SWRN MO. THESE FEATURES WILL HASTEN THE NWD
RETREAT OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY --WHICH HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES-- INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU AND TN VALLEY.
AT THE SAME TIME...A DRYLINE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM S-CNTRL
OK/N-CNTRL TX INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WILL BE GRADUALLY OVERTAKEN
BY A COLD FRONT.

...OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER OH VALLEY...

THE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL
INDUCE A LLJ ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE NWD
FLUX OF A WARMER AND MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GULF COAST.
THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR BENEATH AN EWD-ADVECTING EML WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION OVERNIGHT WITH
MUCAPE INCREASING TO 1500-2000 J/KG. INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AT THE TERMINUS OF THE LLJ WILL GIVE RISE TO ELEVATED
NOCTURNAL TSTMS WITHIN THIS ZONE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITHIN
A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING STRONG CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR. AS
SUCH...A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY SEVERE HAIL WILL
EXIST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

...GULF COAST STATES...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED AND WILL BEGIN TO
RETREAT N AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND 12Z REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR...CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PW VALUES UP
TO 1.5 INCHES. THE AMPLIFICATION OF UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN THE EWD ADVECTION OF AN EML FROM THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...EFFECTIVELY CONFINING DIURNAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT TO THE CNTRL GULF STATES EWD. HERE...THE PRESENCE OF A
MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL ALIGN WITH 50+ KT OF DEEP
WLY SHEAR...RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TODAY. AS SUCH...LOW PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS AREA...SEE MCD 197.

..MEAD/JEWELL.. 03/01/2012

[Hurricaneman]

So far 2012 seems to be leaving off where last year left off

[cycloneye]

Does anyone know in which year the most active severe weather season on record occured?

[cycloneye]

So far 2012 seems to be leaving off where last year left off

2011:



2012 so far:

[cycloneye]

Forecast for Slight Risk in parts of the Southeast for Saturday Morning/Afternoon

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON
SAT MORNING/AFTERNOON...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE CENTERED FROM
THE ERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SRN PLAINS AT 12Z/SAT. A VIGOROUS LEAD
IMPULSE WILL TRACK E/NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SERN CANADA. SRN
PORTION OF TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST AS A SERIES OF JET STREAKS DIVE ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...AN INTENSE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED INVOF LAKE HURON SAT MORNING...WITH A TRIPLE
POINT LOW NEAR THE HUDSON VALLEY AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DRAPED
SWWD TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD EXIT MUCH OF THE ERN
SEABOARD /OUTSIDE OF FL/ BY 00Z/SUN.

...SOUTHEAST...LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...
ONE OR MORE BANDS OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD BE
ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AT 12Z/SAT. THE LAGGING
NATURE OF THE POSITIVE-TILT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH RESPECT TO THE
SURFACE FRONT INFERS THAT THERMODYNAMIC QUALITY WILL PLAY A MORE
PROMINENT ROLE WITH RESPECT TO THE SUSTAINABILITY OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL. WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS
PRE-FRONTAL/DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED...ESPECIALLY
WITH NRN EXTENT GIVEN PROSPECT FOR ANTECEDENT CLOUDS/PRECIP.
STILL...MAJORITY OF SREF GUIDANCE INDICATE MODEST HEATING MAY OCCUR
WITH SWRN EXTENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...CONTRIBUTING TO
SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...STRONG/NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER SWLYS WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO.

[cycloneye]

Updated Slight Risk graphic and Discussion for parts of the SouthEast U.S on Saturday

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SERN U.S.
AND INTO FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SPRAWLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
ERN 3/4 OF THE U.S. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME...WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF THIS TROUGH EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWD ACROSS THE MID OH VALLEY/MID
SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH --
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SWWD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION EARLY
-- IS PROGGED TO MAKE STEAD EWD PROGRESS WITH TIME. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE CLEARED MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...EXTENDING ACROSS THE SERN GA/N FL VICINITY...AND THEN SHOULD
CONTINUE TRANSLATING SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH 04/12Z.

...COASTAL SERN U.S. INTO N FL...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH LIMITED DAMAGING
WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL POSSIBLY ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGER
STORMS. WHILE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN N OF THIS AREA...DAYTIME
HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND
PARTICULARLY SWWD INTO SRN GA/NRN FL WILL THERMODYNAMICALLY SUPPORT
SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ONGOING CONVECTION. WITH
STRONG/QUASI-UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS -- WITH LIKELY STORM MODE BEING
A MIX OF CELLS AND SMALL/BOWING LINES. WHILE LOW-LEVEL VEERING WILL
REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO VEERED/SSWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...SPEED SHEAR
APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...ALONG WITH A
LIKELY MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY
MARGINAL HAIL.

THE THREAT WILL SHIFT SWD INTO FL WITH TIME AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES...DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING AS STORMS
SLOWLY/DIURNALLY WEAKEN.

..GOSS.. 03/02/2012

[cycloneye]

I am posting on this thread the graphic that updates about the number of reports as is more easy to follow it as the other thread moves quickly and gets lost in the pages.

[cycloneye]

Wow, is only the start of this outbreak at the time of this post and 118 reports in general with 17 Tornadoes reported.

[cycloneye]

Amazing! 194 reports and 34 Tornadoes as of 4:00 PM EST.