#22 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Feb 29, 2012 9:39 pm
WTIO30 FMEE 010029 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/12/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12
2.A POSITION 2012/03/01 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 67.0 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 60 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/01 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 65.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2012/03/02 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 64.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/03/02 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 63.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/03/03 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 64.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/03/03 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 65.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/03/04 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/05 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 64.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2012/03/06 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 57.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0+ CI=2.5-. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL AN IRREGULAR CDO. SOME SIGNIFICANT
FLUCTUTATIONS IN SIZE AND SHAPE OF THIS CDO APPEAR ASSOCIATED TO THE
OCCURENCE OF CONVECTIVE BURST, AND SEEMS ALWAYS UNDERGOING A
EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT . THE SYSTEM REMAINS A SMALL SIZE
INNER-CORE SYSTEM. ASCAT DATA OF 1725Z CONFIRM THE WEAK INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM.
LOW LEVEL INFLOW IMPROVES ON THE BOTH SIDES. THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE REMAINS IMPRESSIVE BUT ALWAYS QUITE LIMITATED OVER THE
EASTERN SIDE.
THE SYSTEM TRACKS NOW SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARDS AND IS GETTING CLOSER OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ALTHOUGHT SOME EASTERLY SHEAR COULD REMAIN
TOMORROW, IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GAIN A LITTLE BIT OF
STRENGTH. FRIDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE AT ITS BEST UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ... PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER LOW GIVEN
THAT FEW OR NONE OF THE GUIDANCE STRENGHEN SIGNIFICANTLY THE SYSTEM
UNTIL FRIDAY ... HOWEVER GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE INNER CORE, ONE
COULD NOTE THAT SOME STRONGER VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY THAN PRESENTLY
INDICATED COULD BE OBSERVED.
FROM SATURDAY TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A NEW NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE DEEPEN THE SYSTEM BY THAT TIME. FURTHER ANALYSIS SHOW
THAT THIS INTENSIFICATION MAY COME FROM BAROCLINIC PROCESS ...
CONSEQUENTLY, EN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION MAY BEGIN SUNDAY.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD ROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS LOCATED TO ITS EAST AND
SHOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A NEW UPPER TO MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE
TRACK COULD TAKE BY THAT TIME A SOUTHEEASTWARDS MOTION BETWEEN THE
TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS SOUTHWEST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHEAST . AFTER THAT, THE PREDILECTED SCENARIO IS WESTWARDS TURN ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECAST
SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AROUND THIS "S" TRACK.
INHABITANTS OF RODRIGUES ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM, AS A MORE SERIOUS THREAT COULD NOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ...
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