Big Tornado Outbreak March 2-3

[Dave]

AFD from NWS Indianapolis IN as of 944 est:

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

FOCUS WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD EARLY SEASON SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA SPECIFICALLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO CLOSE
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF AND EXPECTED RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING FROM SOUTHWEST MISSOURI FRIDAY MORNING TO NORTHERN
INDIANA BY FRIDAY EVENING. 12Z MODELS SHOWING AN EVEN DEEPER TREND
TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WERE SHOWING.

TO BEGIN FRIDAY MORNING...WARM FRONT WILL PROGRESS STEADILY NORTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT
PROVIDING AN INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE DURING THE MORNING WITH CONVECTION REMAINING ELEVATED.

MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WORKS INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS NORTH INTO ILLINOIS. VERY STRONG SURGE OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SHOULD ENABLE DEWPOINTS TO SURGE INTO THE
50S BY MID AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY APPROACH 60 DEGREES OVER FAR
SOUTHERN INDIANA. MODELS FAVORING MLCAPES CLIMBING TO NEAR 500 J/KG
NEAR I-70 INCREASING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE AS PRESENCE OF
POLAR VORTEX OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS PHASES AND SERVES TO AMPLIFY
THE TROUGHING ALOFT BY LATE DAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE
EXCELLENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ALOFT PRESSING THROUGH THE REGION AND MAYBE MORE
IMPRESSIVELY...A DUAL UPPER JET STRUCTURE WITH WINDS TO NEAR 130KT.
THE SPLITTING OF THE JETS RIGHT OVER THE REGION SHOULD SERVE TO
FURTHER ENHANCE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND VERTICAL VELOCITIES SUPPORTIVE
FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE CONVECTION. AN 850MB JET INCREASING
TO NEAR 60KTS ALSO ADDING ITS WEIGHT WITH STRONG BL SHEAR AND 0-1KM
HELICITIES OF 100-200M2/S2 PRESENT. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
WITH RESPECT TO AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT CAN TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON AND HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CAN GET...THE PRESENCE OF THE DYNAMICS/SHEAR/HELICITIES AND JET
STRUCTURE ALOFT ALONE ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE GUN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT GREATEST CONCERN FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE AT THIS POINT
LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF I-70 AND SPECIFICALLY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE INSTABILITY AND HELICITY VALUES WILL BE ENHANCED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY. FURTHER NORTH...HAVE A BIT OF A
CONCERN FOR TRIPLE POINT INTERACTION AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST. ULTIMATELY...ALL SEVERE
WEATHER MODES ARE ON THE TABLE AS WBZERO VALUES NEAR 6-7KFT COULD
EASILY SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL CONCERN. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE
OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND VIA WEB GRAPHICS.

ANY SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE WRAPPED UP OVER THE REGION BY LATE
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND A
WELL DEVELOPED DRY SLOT EXPANDS INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. IT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT DOES APPEAR SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS AND A SHARP SHOT OF SUBSIDENCE.
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN WAKE
OF THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE.

TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT AT OR JUST BELOW MAVMOS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...AS
EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE NORTH INTO THE REGION SHOULD
ENSURE TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW
AND COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY...EXPECTED MUCH COLDER TEMPS IN THE 40S
AND GENERALLY LEANED CLOSER TO COOLER MET GUIDANCE. WENT NEAR WARMER
METMOS FOR LOWS FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

[brunota2003]

Hazardous Weather Outlook from NWS Jackson, KY

402 PM EST THU MAR 1 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

RUNOFF FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO HIGH WATER ON THE
KENTUCKY RIVER AT RAVENNA AND HEIDELBERG.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO OCCURRENCES OF FLASH
FLOODING. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

[Dave]

If your in or near this area tomorrow stay safe...going to relax for awhile then get some sleep.

[CrazyC83]

I'll be unavailable from 7 to 9 pm tomorrow evening, and intermittent during the day.

[EF-5bigj]

So whats it looking like for my area?? Im in MS but im south/east MS so im hoping im spared the worst of it.

[WeatherGuesser]

Multimedia briefing from PAH

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=webbriefing

[EF-5bigj]

Well it looks like northeast Mississippi will get the worst of it i'll have to warn my friend in Tennessee about this she is in the red zone.

[CrazyC83]

Awaiting the 0600Z outlook. Do they pull the biggest weapon in the arsenal out?

I'd hold off with a strongly worded MDT for now and wait on the morning convection with a large 15H tornado and 45H wind.

[CrazyC83]

No upgrade yet. Possibly at 1300Z.

SPC AC 020542

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CST THU MAR 01 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE CNTRL
GULF STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY...SWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF STATES...

A VERY STRONG JET CORE AT MID-HIGH LEVELS WILL INTENSIFY IN EXCESS
OF 110KT AS IT OVERSPREADS SRN MO INTO THE OH VALLEY LATER TODAY.
IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE A SFC LOW OVER NCNTRL OK EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL TRACK NEWD AND DEEPEN OVER MO INTO CNTRL IL BY MID DAY.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS RECOVERING RAPIDLY ACROSS ERN OK ATTM
WITH 60F DEW POINTS NOW SPREADING NORTH OF I-40. THIS MOISTURE
SURGE WILL ADVECT INTO MO BY SUNRISE AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INDUCE MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...AHEAD OF SFC LOW
ALONG/NORTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SUBSEQUENT EXPANSION NEWD
WITH RECOVERING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW SEVERE WARM ADVECTION STORMS TO
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY BY 18Z. WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL
LIKELY BE THE PREDOMINANT THREAT EARLY...A FEW TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE AS AIRMASS MOISTENS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY BOUNDARY
LAYER DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S AHEAD OF SFC COLD
FRONT AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN SUCH THAT PRE-FRONTAL
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z
ACROSS IL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OVER SRN IL
SUGGEST MUCAPE SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG WITHIN AN
OTHERWISE VERY STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION SHOULD THEN EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
IND/KY BEFORE DEVELOPING SWWD ALONG THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS TN INTO
NRN AL/MS.

AFTER THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID MS/OH
VALLEY REGION...THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE WITH ACTIVITY THAT EVOLVES
AFTER 18Z AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WITH QUITE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT FORM
ACROSS THE MOIST WARM SECTOR. WITH TIME A DAMAGING SQUALL LINE
COULD EMERGE WITH VERY STRONG WINDS.

...GULF STATES...

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT APPEARS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
BECOME VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE-WISE AS WIND SHIFT ENCOUNTERS MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/GULF STATES.
SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION ALSO FAVOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD CERTAINLY ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR
MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS.

...LOWER MI...

WITH THE SFC LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER LOWER MI
AFTER 00Z THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A STRONGLY FORCED BAND OF LOW
TOPPED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. MODELS
SUGGEST ONLY MEAGER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THIS REGION AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT BUT WITH INTENSE FORCING IT/S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT A
SEVERE SQUALL LINE COULD EXTEND INTO SERN LOWER MI DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.

..DARROW/SMITH.. 03/02/2012

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0548Z (12:48AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

The setup isn't perfect (not like, say, April 27 last year where everything was capable of becoming an EF5 monster), but still definitely capable of intense tornadoes.

[Rgv20]

Stay safe tomorrow!


Severe weather is likely on Friday across middle Tennessee. The associated graphic indicates the timing of the expected severe weather impact, beginning around Noon west and ending by 10 pm on the Plateau.

[WeatherGuesser]

Kicked up to High:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
EXTREME SRN INDIANA...CENTRAL KY... AND NRN MIDDLE TN...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK...FOR
MUCH OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
UPPER OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS...

--SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK/STRONG TORNADOES--

...SYNOPSIS...
A 130 KT JET STREAK ALOFT NOW OVERSPREADING NW OK PER PROFILER PLOTS
WILL CONTINUE NEWD TO MO/IL/INDIANA BY THIS EVENING. A COUPLING OF
LOW-LEVEL WAA/DECREASING STATIC STABILITY AND DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE MID-UPPER JET STREAK WILL PROMOTE DEEPENING OF A
SURFACE CYCLONE WHICH WILL MOVE NEWD FROM MO TO CENTRAL IL BY
MIDDAY...AND SRN LOWER MI BY THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY NWD TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE CYCLONE...AND A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEY REGION. A
RESERVOIR OF L0W-MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR AND S OF I-40
WILL SURGE NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSTANTIAL NEWD EXPANSION OF THE UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR IN THE WAKE OF MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME.

...TN/OH VALLEY REGION TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...
THE INITIAL ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS NEAR STL /JUST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE CYCLONE/ WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENEWD OVER CENTRAL
IL/INDIANA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
GUSTS. THE MORE SERIOUS SEVERE STORM/TORNADO RISK WILL BEGIN TO
MATERIALIZE IMMEDIATELY E OF THE MS RIVER BY MIDDAY. A BROKEN BAND
OF STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FARTHER E IN
THE UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND MOISTURE LIKEWISE
INCREASES...MLCAPE WILL INCREASE TO 1500-2000 J/KG AS FAR NE AS NRN
KY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE DESTABILIZATION WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH
AN INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER FLOW/VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR NEAR 70 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2.

THE VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...MODERATE INSTABILITY...A MOIST
LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW DISCRETE WARM
SECTOR SUPERCELLS / AND SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE ALONG THE
FRONT/...ALL APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADO
EPISODE WITH A FEW LONG-TRACK/STRONG TORNADOES. THE MOST PROBABLE
AREA FOR DAMAGING TORNADOES WILL BE SE OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK IN
THE MORE ESTABLISHED WARM SECTOR...OR NEAR AND S OF THE OH RIVER
FROM EXTREME SRN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL KY/NRN MIDDLE TN. BOTH
PRE-FRONTAL AND FRONTAL SUPERCELLS ARE MOST PROBABLE IN THE HIGH
RISK AREA...AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD SPREAD AS FAR NE AS SW OH
AND WRN WV BEFORE EXITING THE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH
THE PRE-FRONTAL AND FRONTAL STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

...MS/AL/GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
THE MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN A LITTLE S OF
THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW...AND THE STRONGEST LLJ CORE WILL
DEVELOP NEWD TO THE OH VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER JET
STREAK AND SURFACE CYCLONE. STILL...INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITHIN IN ONE OR MORE BANDS OF
CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. RISKS WILL INCLUDE A FEW
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.

..THOMPSON/LEITMAN.. 03/02/2012

[WeatherGuesser]

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
NORTHERN GEORGIA
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN INDIANA
KENTUCKY
EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHWEST OHIO
TENNESSEE
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND MISSOURI THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD TO LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS
EVENING...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...WINDS AND ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK
AREA...SETTING THE STAGE FOR LONG-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MOST DANGEROUS TORNADO RISK AREA IS EXPECTED FROM MIDDLE AND
EASTERN TENNESSEE NORTHWARD ACROSS KENTUCKY TO THE OHIO RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE A FEW LONG-TRACK/DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. FARTHER SOUTH
INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AND NORTHERN GEORGIA THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..THOMPSON.. 03/02/2012

...

[WeatherGuesser]

WW 0055 SVR

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 55
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
555 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WEST CENTRAL INDIANA
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 555 AM UNTIL 1100 AM CST.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF FORT LEONARD WOOD MISSOURI TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
LAFAYETTE INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 54. WATCH NUMBER 54 WILL NOT BE
IN EFFECT AFTER 555 AM CST.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED STORMS...INCLUDING A SUPERCELL CLUSTER NEAR
STL...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD IN A ZONE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA
AND DESTABILIZATION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE
OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN SW MO. MODERATE INSTABILITY /ROOTED
NEAR 850 MB/ IS PRESENT UPSTREAM FROM THE WATCH AREA PER THE 12Z SGF
SOUNDING...AND A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR AND
MUCAPE AOA 1500 J/KG WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL IL/INDIANA THROUGH
THE MORNING. LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
STORM RISK...THOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24040.


...THOMPSON

...

[WeatherGuesser]

Last High Risk day in March was '08

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_SPC_high-risk_days

[Cyclenall]

Accuweather is going overboard, saying this could be similar to the 1974 Super Outbreak (in early March???)

I laughed. I thing that was most amusing was the explanation: cold air meeting warm air .

I have a sick feeling about this...right now I am trying to spread the word to get everyone prepared.

Some relatives of mine live right in the worst areas highlighted for this event, I'll have to call.

VERY strongly worded from NWS Nashville.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
*cut*

Wow, worst since April 27 of last year and one of the worst in years...

Kicked up to High:

Holy crap, . This is an early High Risk! March 2 is almost the very start of meteorological Spring so it appears 2012 will start out with a bang!! Not only that but look how big the Slight and Moderate risk areas are now. It reminds me of the SPC maps from last Spring, more specifically May 25. The relatives are right in the High Risk area, hold on to your hats!

About this being too early to see really insane stuff, that is a myth. The Tri-State tornado occurred in mid-March and that was one of the most insane weather events documented by man.

[CrazyC83]

Yeah REALLY everyone needs to stay safe! This is one EXTREMELY dangerous situation.

[CrazyC83]

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 021326
ALZ000-GAZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-021800-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
INDIANA...CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN INDIANA...CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

ALABAMA
GEORGIA
ILLINOIS
INDIANA
KENTUCKY
MISSISSIPPI
OHIO
TENNESSEE

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM EAST
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
NORTHERN GEORGIA...NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO.

MORNING WEATHER DATA CONFIRM A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE TOWARD THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN MISSOURI. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO
SPREAD TO NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON...AT THE SAME
TIME THE WINDS THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY
STRONG. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
FAST-MOVING TORNADIC STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LONG-TRACK/DAMAGING
TORNADOES IN THE HIGH RISK AREA OF EXTREME SOUTHERN
INDIANA...CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON.

A SEPARATE BAND OR TWO OF SEVERE STORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES COMPARED TO
FARTHER NORTH IN THE HIGH RISK...BUT MULTIPLE SEVERE STORMS WITH A
FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..THOMPSON.. 03/02/2012

$$

[brunota2003]

The only thing we can hope is that storms fire to the south of the greatest risk areas, and rob the areas of the instability/moisture and keep the storms weaker. But I fear nothing like that will happen.

[CrazyC83]

I would expect a PDS Tornado Watch for that area by late morning.