Big Tornado Outbreak March 2-3

[CrazyC83]

A must read, from NWS Nashville:

000
WWUS84 KOHX 021342 AAA
SPSOHX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
742 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-030000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...CAMDEN...ERIN...
WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...
MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...
LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...
FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...
WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...
TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT...SPENCER...
WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI
742 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT...
...A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE...INCLUDING THE NASHVILLE METROPOLITIAN AREA...
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY
LONG TRACKED STRONG TORNADOES...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MID STATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

LOWER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE
ENTIRE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH WARMER
AND MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS TO BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MID STATE
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO AID WITH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
AND LIFT. ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE
APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. THUS...ALL THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON A LARGE SCALE WILL BE IN
PLACE...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT. THE BEST OVERALL TIME
FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MID STATE WILL BE FROM
NOON IN WESTERN LOCATIONS TO MID EVENING IN EASTERN LOCATIONS.

QUICK ACTION MAY NEED TO BE TAKEN DURING THIS SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE. ACTIONS MAY NEED TO BE TAKEN
NOW FOR THE ELDERLY AND HANDICAPPED TO BE SURE THAT THEY HAVE
PROPER TIME TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER. PLEASE BE SURE THAT YOUR
SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLANS ARE IN PLACE FOR BOTH YOUR RESIDENCE
AND BUSINESS. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE SURE THAT THEY HAVE ACCESS TO A
RELIABLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...SUCH
AS NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET. INFORMATION
CONCERNING NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS AND THE LOCATION THAT
THEY SERVE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE CAN BE FOUND ON THE NASHVILLE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE...AT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NASHVILLE
UNDER WEATHER SAFETY.
$$
31

[CrazyC83]

NWS Louisville also playing it up big time:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
918 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-022000-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...
BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...
LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...
JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
918 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012 /818 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012/

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARDS OHIO. THIS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING A WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING WITH IT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. THESE STORMS THROUGH THE NOON HOUR WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE
REGION BY MIDDAY AND WE WILL SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION.

THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE WEST...WHICH
WILL BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ERUPT ALONG OF OR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY AROUND THE I-65
CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...ROUGHLY AROUND 2-4 PM
EST. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
SOME TORNADOES...POSSIBLY LONG TRACKED AND VERY DAMAGING
TORNADOES AS WELL. AGAIN...THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
OR ALONG THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST...REACHING
SOUTH- CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF KENTUCKY MOST
LIKELY AFTER 4-5PM EST...AND STILL REMAINING SEVERE OR TORNADIC.

IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR SEVERE AND TORNADIC THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE CURRENT SITUATION AS QUICK ACTION WILL
BE NEEDED SINCE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. CONTINUE TO MONITOR OUR
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE...OR VIEW LOCAL MEDIA ON THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

$$

AL

[brunota2003]

My parents' Special Weather Statement (from NWS Jackson, KY):

733 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...POTENTIAL MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL SEND A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS GUSTS.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A THREAT FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS...AND SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND EVEN TORNADOES. ANY TORNADOES THAT DEVELOP
COULD BE STRONG. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD
TO A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING...MAINLY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.

RESIDENTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD STAY ALERT AND KEEP INFORMED ON
THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY.

$$
JP

[Rgv20]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
934 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYC111-021500-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-120302T1500Z/
JEFFERSON KY-
934 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM EST
FOR EASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY...

AT 929 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED EAST OF OKOLONA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
60 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN OKOLONA.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
ST. MATTHEWS...
LYNDON...
JEFFERSONTOWN...
FERN CREEK...
ANCHORAGE AND MIDDLETOWN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3833 8555 3833 8554 3832 8553 3825 8541
3816 8542 3811 8569 3814 8573 3834 8558
3834 8556
TIME...MOT...LOC 1433Z 223DEG 57KT 3821 8563
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

$$

TWF

[Rgv20]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
938 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYC125-199-203-021500-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-120302T1500Z/
PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-LAUREL KY-
938 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
LAUREL...SOUTHERN ROCKCASTLE AND EAST CENTRAL PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL
1000 AM EST...

AT 933 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BUNCH...OR 12 MILES WEST OF LONDON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
HARE...CARMICHAEL...WOOD CREEK LAKE AND PITTSBURG AROUND 945 AM
EST.
OAKLEY...EAST BERNSTADT...VICTORY AND MERSHONS AROUND 950 AM EST.
GREENMOUNT...ATLANTA...TEMPLER AND HORSE LICK AROUND 955 AM EST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE DILLON
AND OAKLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE`S LEADING KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3733 8415 3721 8398 3704 8427 3709 8435
3723 8451 3742 8424 3735 8416
TIME...MOT...LOC 1438Z 235DEG 40KT 3714 8425
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

$$

GREIF

[CrazyC83]

Initial activity, assuming a short-term tornado watch there? Or better just to wait for the large PDS watch?

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0204
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0907 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...MIDDLE/ERN TN...FAR NWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021507Z - 021600Z

RADAR TRENDS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
TSTMS ACROSS NRN AL AND MIDDLE TN. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH.

LOOSELY ORGANIZED TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE WITHIN A
WEAK WAA ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS NRN AL INTO PARTS OF MIDDLE TN. 12Z
QAG/BMX SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK STABLE LAYER NEAR 1 KM AGL...BUT
WITH CONTINUED HEATING THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR SFC BASED PARCELS WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. GWX VWP DATA ALSO
SHOW A STRONG/CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH...WITH 0-1 KM
BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 KTS. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF TSTMS...GIVEN LACK OF ROBUST FORCING
MECHANISMS/MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...BUT WITH A STRONGLY SHEARED AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS FOR A POSSIBLE
TORNADO WATCH.

..ROGERS.. 03/02/2012


ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON 35888425 35038426 34308550 34158620 34168757 34568792
35998670 36478586 36548448 35888425

[CrazyC83]

First of likely many.

TORNADO WARNING
ALC083-089-021545-
/O.NEW.KHUN.TO.W.0004.120302T1518Z-120302T1545Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
918 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL LIMESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 945 AM CST

* AT 918 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FRENCH
MILL...OR ABOUT NEAR ATHENS...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
CAPSHAW.
HARVEST.
MERIDIANVILLE.
HAZEL GREEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 8642 3473 8693 3482 8697 3500 8652
3499 8648
TIME...MOT...LOC 1518Z 249DEG 39KT 3479 8687

$$

KDW

[CrazyC83]

PDS Tornado Watch likely soon if those boundaries are chosen, although it might be overkill in western areas.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0205
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0922 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE MO...SRN IL...SRN IN...WRN AND CNTRL
KY...WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 021522Z - 021715Z

A RAPID INCREASE IN THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL APPEARS POSSIBLE BY
MIDDAY...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONIC 500 MB JET CORE IS IN THE PROCESS
OF INTENSIFYING IN EXCESS OF 100 KT...AS ITS EXIT REGION NOSES
ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS TOWARD CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRONGEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE FOCUSED JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE...BUT THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS LIKELY TO WEAKEN
INHIBITION IN THE WARM SECTOR AN ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE
CYCLONE. AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... MODELS
SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT AND SHARPENING OF A PRE-COLD FRONTAL DRY
LINE BY THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME...SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE...COUPLED
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION BENEATH THE
MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...MAY SERVE TO FOCUS THE INITIATION OF DISCRETE
STORMS. IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG SHEAR...AND LARGE CLOCKWISE
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH A 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB
JET...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS.

VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE FROM THE OUTSET...AND TORNADIC POTENTIAL
MAY ALSO INCREASE QUICKLY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR PARTICULARLY STRONG
AND DAMAGING TORNADOES INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER WESTERLY MEAN FLOW /50-60+ KT/...CELLS
WILL BE FAST MOVING...BUT ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE...AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRY LINE EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 03/02/2012


ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...

LAT...LON 36018975 37338955 37878912 38728842 39278743 39348634
38518562 36938575 35218776 35028904 35149006 36018975

[WeatherGuesser]

I really don't understand the point in posting localalized warnings here. They just clutter up the thread in my view.

[RL3AO]

Well usually during a large outbreak we only post warnings with confirmed tornadoes on the ground.

[Dave]

Needless to say I'll be in and out of here today...

10:47 AM) HUN continues Tornado Warning for Franklin, Lincoln [TN] and Jackson, Madison [AL] till 10:15 AM CST ...AT 946 AM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HAZEL GREEN...OR ABOUT NEAR MERIDIANVILLE... MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

[RL3AO]

North of Huntsville

[EF-5bigj]

So whats it looking like for the southeast ms??

[Dave]

LIMESTONE AL-MADISON AL-
952 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CST FOR
NORTHWESTERN MADISON AND EAST CENTRAL LIMESTONE COUNTIES...

AT 951 AM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CAPSHAW...OR ABOUT 7 MILES NORTH OF
MADISON...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

AT 951...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR HIGHWAY 72 AT
FRENCH MILL.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HARVEST...TONEY...RYLAND...ALABAMA A AND M UNIVERSITY...MOORES MILL
AND MERIDIANVILLE.

[Cyclenall]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
931 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

ALC083-089-021545-
/O.CON.KHUN.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120302T1545Z/
LIMESTONE AL-MADISON AL-
931 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM CST FOR NORTHERN
MADISON AND EAST CENTRAL LIMESTONE COUNTIES...

AT 925 AM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARVEST...OR ABOUT 9
MILES NORTH OF MADISON...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

AT 925 AM...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OF LIMESTONE COUNTY REPORTED
TORNADO DAMAGE TO HOUSES BETWEEN ATHENS AND EASTERN LIMESTONE COUNTY
HIGH SCHOOL.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TONEY...MERIDIANVILLE...HAZEL GREEN...MOORES MILL AND FISK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8648 3481 8642 3477 8684 3485 8689
3500 8654 3499 8650
TIME...MOT...LOC 1529Z 248DEG 38KT 3484 8674

$$

KDW

Good lord, already a confirmed tornado that has caused damage and its not even 11 am yet.

[RL3AO]

Hook echo and TVS evident as it approaches the radar site.

[Dave]

Someone else will have to pick this up...getting busier here.

the new tornado watch over the western half of central Indiana replaces the Severe Thunderstorm Watch and is a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation).

[EF-5bigj]

I think its capped down my way its not clear and its not humid at all.

[Bunkertor]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 57
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
955 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 955 AM UNTIL 600
PM CST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE
GIRARDEAU MISSOURI TO 25 MILES NORTH OF DANVILLE ILLINOIS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 55...WW 56...

DISCUSSION...A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT IS DEVELOPING TODAY ACROSS
NWD-EXPANDING WARM SECTOR...FEATURING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2500
J/KG...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-600
M2/S2. TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER SERN
MO/W-CNTRL IL ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF LONG-TRACKED...SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.


...MEAD

[Cyclenall]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
947 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

ALC071-089-TNC051-103-021615-
/O.CON.KHUN.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120302T1615Z/
JACKSON AL-MADISON AL-FRANKLIN TN-LINCOLN TN-
947 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM CST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN...SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...NORTHEASTERN MADISON
AND NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

AT 946 AM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HAZEL GREEN...OR ABOUT NEAR MERIDIANVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NEW
MARKET...PLEVNA...ELORA...LARKIN...FRANCISCO...HUNTLAND...BEANS
CREEK...ESTILLFORK...MAXWELL AND HYTOP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO HOMES AND OTHER STRUCTURES. TAKE COVER NOW!

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

&&

Another one .