don';t count on the models all the time for the hurricane

[blizzard20]

There is good chance that southern New England area could get hit by the hurricane this weekend. It still moving west northwest now . getting close to 70 west. The ridge to the north is very strong and models don't handle it well. I don't understand the weather channel for their forecast on the hurricane path they look only one way with what models say . Hurricanes make there own path. The national weather service people do the same thing . you must look at all models and what hurricanes doo when they get big. . [/b]

[ColdFront77]

The Weather Channel's Forecast Track Maps are The National Hurricane Center's Forecast Tracks.

[Lindaloo]

If it does hit up there will it be able to maintain it's CAT 4 status?

[ColdFront77]

I wouldn't think so, Linda. However, it won't have enough time to weaken rapidly because it will accelerate up coast; which is common and what Gloria, Bob and other hurricanes have done.

The ultimate track of Hurricane Fabian certainly concerns me, remember... I have family in eastern Massachusetts. :o

[ChaserUK]

does anyone know what the main airport is in New England?? Slightly off topic but help would be appreciated!

[HeartofNC]

Boston Logan Airport - There's one on Rhode Island

Heartofnc

[GalvestonDuck]

JFK, LaGuardia, Bangor International, Hartford Springfield Bradly, Boston Logan, Baltimore International? Into which state did you play to fly?

[ColdFront77]

Logan International Airport in East Boston, Massachusetts.

T.F. Green Airport in Warwick, Rhode Island (not Providence -- the three letter code is PVD).


I used to live about 30 miles south of Boston and about 30 miles east of Providence.

[Lindaloo]

I wouldn't think so, Linda. However, it won't have enough time to weaken rapidly because it will accelerate up coast; which is common and what Gloria, Bob and other hurricanes have done.

The ultimate track of Hurricane Fabian certainly concerns me, remember... I have family in eastern Massachusetts. :o

I remember Tom!! I hope it weakens alot before heading that way. I thought it would run into cooler waters up that way.

[JetMaxx]

There are two chances that Fabian will strike SNE

1) extremely slim
2) none

And #1 is becoming less and less likely by the hour. The trough and associated cold front will be off the Northeast Coast well before Fabian reaches the adjacent coastal waters -- and hurricanes never cross an advancing front and plow into a high pressure area....they instead slide around it -- in this case, Fabian will accelerate north then NNE AHEAD of the cold front.

I hate to burst the East Coast wishcaster's bubble, but Fabian hasn't got a chance in hell of being "the next Long Island Express"....it's simply not going to happen. NHC models are performing flawlessly with this hurricane....and it won't pass within 300 miles of either Cape Hatteras or Boston.

Where I would be concerned is if I lived on or had interests in Bermuda, Nova Scotia, or Newfoundland.....they have something to worry about....not the folks on Long Island, Nantucket, or Martha's Vineyard.

[wxman57]

Well-put, JetMax. Isn't it amazing how some "forecasters" see every storm as heading right at them. "To hell with the facts, it's going to turn and hit me!" That's why I left that WWL-TV board (for the most part). Just a bunch of kids "forecasting" every storm to hit New Orleans.

As for that slim chance of Fabian hitting New England, I'd take a glance at a water vapor loop or maybe some upper-level winds at the jet stream flowing from west to east across the northeast U.S.. It's already in place, no ridge has to build. The farther Fabian tracks north, the more it will accelerate off to the northeast.

[ColdFront77]

Perry, I have no reason to disagree with you.

My only point was (yesterday) that if and when the high pressure rebuild westward, like the Melbourne, Florida National Weather Service was mentioning 24 to 36 hours ago... then Fabian would of continued generally westward with a northerly component making the southeastern United States more prone to a direct influence from the system.

[Guest]

IMHO Canada has no wories with this!............As Perry mentioned it is impossible for this system to break through all of that flow once your up along the NE coast and north..................................WV is great at showing this...............Everything up that way is moving from WEST to East not even SW to NE...............So what gets up to perhaps off the Mid Atlantic Coast will get pushed out to the ene or even East which will keep him far enough away from any of Canadas coast line.......................I would actually give Cape Hatteras a better shot then Canada and even thats slim at best.................Main area to watch possibly is Bermuda......................For now Anywhere from the Mid Atlantic coast north into Canada has very few worries for now even though i still wouldnt let me eye off of this cane!

[JetMaxx]

I'm far more concerned about Bermuda than the Northeast U.S.....Fabian is becoming a larger hurricane in size. As he accelerates northward, the area of hurricane force winds N & E of the eye will likely expand farther than the current 70 miles.

I expect at least hurricane force gusts in Bermuda, and only a slight deviation east of track will bring full hurricane conditions to the island -- and IMO Fabian will likely still be a very powerful hurricane at that time (based on sst's in that area).

[JetMaxx]

I didn't take issue with anything you said Tom ...but instead Blizzard20's post that there was a GOOD chance Fabian would strike New England....that's total and utter B.S.

[Stormsfury]

I'm far more concerned about Bermuda than the Northeast U.S.....Fabian is becoming a larger hurricane in size. As he accelerates northward, the area of hurricane force winds N & E of the eye will likely expand farther than the current 70 miles.

I expect at least hurricane force gusts in Bermuda, and only a slight deviation east of track will bring full hurricane conditions to the island -- and IMO Fabian will likely still be a very powerful hurricane at that time (based on sst's in that area).

Also note with Fabian's potential acceleration NNE'ward. Fabian won't have a chance to weaken much if it becomes a threat to Bermuda. In fact, yesterday's EURO has wind speeds (at 850mb) with Fabian @ 109 kts while RAPIDLY accelerating NNE.

SF

[ColdFront77]

I didn't say you were, Perry. We had a bit of a discussion about it, hence my reference to my mention yesterday about Fabian and the (southeast/) east coast.

[SacrydDreamz]

Not all Hurricanes turn ENE ahead of cold fronts, especially when they're traveling NNE at 35-40kts.. Nova Scotia has PLENTY to worry about until it does turn NE and then ENE