TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0046 UTC 08/03/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Koji
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 92.2E
Location Accuracy: within 50 nm [95 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [252 deg]
Speed of Movement: 13 knots [24 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 08/1200: 16.3S 89.9E: 080 [150]: 035 [065]: 995
+24: 09/0000: 16.7S 87.8E: 110 [205]: 040 [075]: 992
+36: 09/1200: 17.2S 85.8E: 140 [265]: 045 [085]: 990
+48: 10/0000: 18.0S 83.9E: 175 [325]: 050 [095]: 986
+60: 10/1200: 19.0S 82.2E: 220 [410]: 045 [085]: 988
+72: 11/0000: 19.9S 81.3E: 270 [500]: 040 [075]: 990
REMARKS:
Locating the system centre by EIR imagery is difficult and there have been very
few useful microwave passes overnight so the fix location is uncertain. The
ASCAT pass at 15Z indicated gales had wrapped a little over halfway around the
system centre. CIMSS shear analysis indicates around 12 knots of NE'ly shear
over the system.
Dvorak DT analysis can only be done with a shear pattern which yields a DT of
3.5 which is inconsistent with the MET of 2.5 and the AMSU/ADT/SATCON estimates.
FT is based on MET and final intensity is set at 35 knots. The system is named
based on the evidence from ASCAT that the gales are wrapping more than half way
around the centre.
The system is being steered by a mid-level ridge and a general southwestwards
movement is expected to continue through until Saturday when a more southerly
track is forecast due to an approaching upper trough.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 08/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
![Image](http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg190/scaled.php?server=190&filename=idw60280.gif&res=medium)