2012 Hurricane Season! Is here!!

[cycloneye]

The problem with less TWs coming off Africa is that that means there will most likely also be more SAL...which suppresses development out to sea (recurves), which means what does develop will more likely be homegrown.

+1

[cycloneye]

Let's see how long will this big drought in West Africa lasts,but it looks like no wetter conditions at this moment for those people in those countries on that part of Africa that have been suffering. The red dots are fires caused by the drought conditions.

[7Deep]

Hey folks, new here. Having lived in FL. for 10 years been through a few storms myself! Can anyone tell me if there has been any correlation between a mild winter and more active hurricane season that follows?
Thanks, Ian


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[Ntxw]

Aside from the eastern Pacific warming, the eastern Atlantic is cooling. Perhaps that will be added as one factor in the upcoming season.



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But also the western Atlantic remains the same if not a bit warmer, this would reinforce the ideas of homegrown systems.

[Hurricane Jed]

Hey folks, new here. Having lived in FL. for 10 years been through a few storms myself! Can anyone tell me if there has been any correlation between a mild winter and more active hurricane season that follows?
Thanks, Ian


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Maybe. Last couple of winters in Texas have been super cold (2010 and 2011) and wound up with 19 storms in each of those seasons. In 2006 I remember the winter being really mild and then we had the El Nino.

[cycloneye]

Florida1118,add to the first post list the 66th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference on 5-8 of March in South Carolina. And among the themes that this conference will discuss is what we have been discussing at Talking Tropics forum about the SS Scale. http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc12/action-items.pdf

http://www.ofcm.gov/homepage/text/spc_proj/ihc.html

[cycloneye]

Florida1118,another activity to add to the list is the March 12th-17th National Hurricane Center Preparedeness Tour.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... etour.html

[CrazyC83]

In all those averages, 2005 IMO should be treated as an outlier.

[cycloneye]

Speaking of how the sst's and ssta's are doing,here is a complete analysis by CPC of what is going on on the Atlantic and Pacific. As Ntxw pointed out in this thread,it may turn out to be a homegrown season with less named storms than what 2010 and 2011 had.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/G ... urrent.pdf

[cycloneye]

Aside from the eastern Pacific warming, the eastern Atlantic is cooling. Perhaps that will be added as one factor in the upcoming season.

http://img827.imageshack.us/img827/4442/afrii.gif

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http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/5605/afric.gif

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But also the western Atlantic remains the same if not a bit warmer, this would reinforce the ideas of homegrown systems.

Even more colder looks the MDR as of March 8th. The homegrown theory looks more amd more viable. And by the way,NHC director Bill Read said this:

http://www.caribbean360.com/index.php/n ... z1oZ3XGr20



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[Patrick99]

Hey folks, new here. Having lived in FL. for 10 years been through a few storms myself! Can anyone tell me if there has been any correlation between a mild winter and more active hurricane season that follows?
Thanks, Ian


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

At least in terms of Florida, I seem to remember hearing somewhere that there's no correlation at all between how active a hurricane season is, and how mild (or cold) a winter is.

[cycloneye]

Florida1118,add to the list (Brief Outlook by CSU on March 21rst)

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/

[cycloneye]

The March ECMWF MSLP forecast is out and is no change from prior month forecasts (See wxman57's post on page 1) and that is higher pressures dominating the Atlantic Basin and that is contrary from what is needed for systems to develop. This is the forecast for July,August and September.



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This was the forecast for 2011 and is reversed from lower pressures in 2011 to higher pressures in 2012.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane season is fast approaching but before the season starts on June 1rst we are two Sundays away from the 2012 Storm2k numbers poll that opens on April 1rst at 3:00 PM EDT so start to disern about a set of numbers that you think the 2012 season will have. For those who may want to remember what numbers you had on the 2011 poll,here it is.

2011 Storm2k Numbers Poll

[cycloneye]

I think the best thread to post the brief CSU update of March 21rst is here. The headline is less active Atlantic in 2012 season.



http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... ar2012.pdf

[cycloneye]

Does anyone know if JB has said something about the Atlantic season? I ask because I remember that by late March of last year,he released a preview.

[Ntxw]

Does anyone know if JB has said something about the Atlantic season? I ask because I remember that by late March of last year,he released a preview.

He has been calling for El Nino. Some of his tweets have mentioned lesser amount of storms this season but I don't think he's put out anything official yet.

[cycloneye]

A reminder that we are getting closer and closer to (April 1rst) (3:00 PM EDT) for the Storm2k 2012 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll to begin,so start to think about the numbers from now and when the poll opens,you can post them as final or if you want,post preliminary ones and before May 31rst,go with your final ones. Let's see if the participation surpass the 110 members that posted numbers in last year's poll. Or we can do something much better,and that is reaching 200 for the first time ever on these polls.

[cycloneye]

Here is another private firm that does Tropical Seasonal Forecasts,and this one was made by North Carolina State University. It has interesting analysis for the Gulf of Mexico and East Coast of U.S. It follows what the other experts have predicted in terms of average numbers for the 2012 season.

http://cfdl.meas.ncsu.edu/research/TCoutlook_2012.pdf

[SFLcane]

Does anyone know if JB has said something about the Atlantic season? I ask because I remember that by late March of last year,he released a preview.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/weatherbell/2012/04/03/damaging-hurricanes-could-impact-energy-insurance-industries-in-2012/