Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Plenty of strong winds will blow thru Puerto Rico tonight and on Wednesday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
409 PM AST TUE MAR 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH TONIGHT THEN
BREAK DOWN WED AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC INTO THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH PREVAILED OVER THE LOCAL
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS MOMENT THE DOPPLER RADAR IS A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE MINIMAL AS BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE MOVING
FAST THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION AS A BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA AND
RESULTANT TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
ALSO EXPECTED... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL
AREAS AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL BE
LIMITED...EXPECT THE STRONGER WIND GUST NEAR THE SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. SFC WINDS 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL BE COMMON LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
SLOWLY DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE BIG PROBLEMS FOR SMALL
AIRPLANES. MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR ALL PLANES.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THIS WILL GENERATE CHOPPY AND DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE THROUGH THURSDAY. A NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL LOCAL PASSAGES

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 83 73 82 / 50 50 40 40
STT 74 84 73 84 / 40 40 40 40

[Macrocane]

Same here cycloneye, we've had moderate to strong winds in Central America since Sunday and will persist until Thursday morning.

Thanks to the cold surge the maximum temperatures were cooler yesterday than on Sunday but the minimum temperatures have cooled down only in the northern half of the region. These are the observations for Monday March 5 2012.

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Near normal in Guatemala. Cooler than normal in Belize.

Belize city, Belize 20°C (68°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 14.9°C (58.8°F) Coldest since January 6 2012
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14.0°C (57.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.4°C (43.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.6°C (67.3°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.3°C (50.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F) Warmest since November 28 2011
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.0°C (64.4°F) Warmest since December 22 2011
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 1.6°C (34.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 26.6°C (79.9°F) WARMEST SINCE MAY 10 2011
Panama city, Panama 25.7°C (78.3°F) WARMEST SINCE MAY 5 2011
Boquete, Panama 15.0°C (59.0°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Near normal in El Salvador and Nicaragua. Cooler than normal in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F) COOLEST SINCE FEBRUARY 13 2011
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 17.5°C (63.5°F) COLDEST SINCE FEBRUARY 13 2011
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 28°C (82°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.9°C (87.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 15.7°C (60.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 38.6°C (101.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.1°C (77.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 8.0°C (46.4°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 35.2°C (95.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.6°C (90.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 18.2°C (64.8°F) Coldest since January 19 2012

Strongest Wind Gusts in selected locations

Belize city, Belize 34 km/h (21 mph)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 58 km/h (36 mph)
Ishuatán, El Salvador 58 km/h (36 mph)
Nueva Ocotepeque, Honduras 57 km/h (36 mph)
Managua, Nicaragua 33 km/h (21 mph)
San Jose, Costa Rica 63 km/h (39 mph)
Santa Ana, Costa Rica 85 km/h (53 mph)
Boquete, Panama 42 km/h (26 mph)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The only thing to say for today is Windy,windy,windy.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 AM AST WED MAR 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS WEAKENING WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES EAST.
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AST THURSDAY AND A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM AST THURSDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AT 28 MPH GUSTING
TO 35 MPH SO FAR TODAY IN SAN JUAN. CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AS THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BUILD AND MOVE EAST JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
CAUSING STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS WITH SIGNIFICANT GUSTS.

OTHER THAN THE STRONG WINDS...PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL BRING
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS TODAY...MOSTLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.


&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS IN GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT NEARLY
ALL TAF SITES...WITH LEEWARD SITES SUCH AS TJPS SEEING FEWER SHRA.
SFC WINDS NORTHEAST INCRG TO 18 TO 24 KT THROUGH 07/22Z WITH GUSTS
TYPICALLY 20 TO 30 KT BUT ISOLD GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 36 KT. CONDS
IMPROVING AFT 08/03Z. SHRA TO CLEAR FROM TKPK WESTWARD AFT 08/00Z.
MTN OBSCURATIONS AND STRONG TURBULENCE ON LEEWARD SIDES OF MTNS THRU
08/02Z. LGT-MDT TURBULENCE ELSEWHERE.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY...THIS
WILL GENERATE CHOPPY AND DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THURSDAY.
A NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL
LOCAL PASSAGES. SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
TODAY...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY.

.FIRE WEATHER....IN AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN SLOPES...PARTICULARLY
IN AREAS WHERE RAIN IS NOT OBSERVED...WILDFIRE THREAT REMAINS
ELEVATED DUE TO THE DRY FUELS...STRONG WINDS...AND INCREASED INSTABILITY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 82 73 / 70 60 60 50
STT 84 73 84 73 / 60 40 40 20

[Macrocane]

I've updated the Central America cold surges thread with the info from last week's event: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2216379#p2216379

Another surge has been producing strong winds this week but I will post the observations when it is over.

[cycloneye]

The surfers are delighted with this windy and high swells period.

[Macrocane]

COOLER THAN NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AMERICA

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Nicaragua and Panama. Near normal in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Costa Rica. Cooler than normal in Belize.

Belize city, Belize 19°C (66°F) Coldest since January 7 2012
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 15.5°C (59.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14.0°C (57.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 7.8°C (46.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.6°C (65.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.9°C (49.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.5°C (74.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 2.1°C (35.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 25.9°C (78.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.8°C (76.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.2°C (57.6°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Cooler than normal in all the countries.

Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.2°C (64.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 22.0°C (71.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 17.3°C (63.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 27°C (81°F) Coolest since January 29 2012
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.0°C (86.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.3°C (55.9°F) Coldest since January 3 2012
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.6°C (96.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 23°C (73°F) Coolest since February 2 2012
La Esperanza, Honduras 16°C (61°F) Coolest since January 31 2012
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 24.6°C (76.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.8°C (44.2°F) Coldest since January 16 2012
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.2°C (91.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.2°C (88.2°F) Coolest since February 1 2012
Boquete, Panama 18.5°C (65.3°F)

Strongest Wind Gusts

Belize City, Belize 35 km/h (22 mph)
Guatemala City 45 km/h (28 mph)
Ishuatan, El Salvador 51 km/h (32 mph)
Nueva Ocotepeque, Honduras 44 km/h (28 mph)
San Jose, Costa Rica 70 km/h (44 mph)
Santa Ana, Costa Rica 82 km/h (51 mph)
Boquete, Panama 48 km/h (30 mph)

[cycloneye]

The windy conditions will prevail until Friday. It looks like the upcomming weekend will see an increase of showers as a trough develops.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
344 PM AST WED MAR 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE 24 HOURS AS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC.
A DEEPER TROUGH IS THEN ESTABLISHES NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND GRADUALLY DECREASE
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY. A COUPLE OF WX STATIONS
ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF THE ISLANDS REPORTED SUSTAIN
WINDS OF AROUND 25 MPH AND GUSTS OF UP 40 MPH THIS MORNING. 12Z
TJSJ SOUNDING...ACARS AND TDWR TSJU VWP ALL INDICATED 25-30KT
(29-35 MPH) WINDS BETWEEN SFC AND 5 KFT. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS MOVES
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY ESTABLISH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE USVI EARLY ON
SATURDAY. AS TRADE WIND CAP WANES...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE TO POOL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. OVERALL...EXPECT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS...WITH MOST ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS
INVERTED TROUGH ENHANCES MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAILED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SUSTAINED WINDS 20KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED AT
JSJ/IST/ISX/JMZ WITH SLOWER WIND SPEEDS AT JPS DUE TO GREATER
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS.

&&

.MARINE...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE ATLC AND CARIB
COASTAL WATERS WILL GENERATE ROUGH SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT. AS A RESULT...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF
PUERTO RICO AND USVI...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 72 82 / 60 60 50 50
STT 73 84 73 83 / 50 50 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Increasing showers and less strong winds is what is expected for this comming weekend.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
614 AM AST THU MAR 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE CAUSING
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE AT THE UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN PLACE AS IT DIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST NORTH
ATLANTIC. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO.
THERE IS ALSO A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
COASTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND THE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WHERE LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AND AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST OR MAYBE EVEN INCREASE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEEKEND
WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPER MOISTURE LAYER AND A
WEAKENING IN THE CAP.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF SCT SHRA WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE TAF SITES
THRU 09/02Z XCP ISOLD AT TJPS. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS. WINDS ARE DCRG SLOWLY FROM
15 TO 25 KT WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 32 KT. MDT LCLY STG TURBULENCE ON
THE LEEWARD SIDE OF HIR MTNS THRU 09/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE ATLC AND CARIB
COASTAL WATERS WILL GENERATE ROUGH SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT. AS A
RESULT...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH AND EAST
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 83 72 / 60 60 60 70
STT 84 73 83 73 / 50 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. A variable weather pattern will shape up this weekend with periods of sun mixed with scattered showers due to a surface trough that will linger in the area.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
331 PM AST THU MAR 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
AND DIP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...THEN LINGER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN DOING SO...
EXPECT WEAK SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS TO PROPAGATE EASTWARDS THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL SAG ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
HOWEVER EXPECTED THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOOSEN AND THUS
DECREASE THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. IN ADDITION...AS THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD BY SATURDAY...A WEAKLY INDUCED INVERTED
TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA FROM THERE ON AND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT PATCHES OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT PERIODS OF QUICK PASSING LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHORT
WAVE PERTURBATIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE EVENING...EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. BY SUNDAY...THE
ABOVE MENTIONED INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL AS THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN/ERODE...THEREBY LIMITING LOCALIZED CONVECTION
TO MAINLY THE INTERIOR AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT PASSING SHRA WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE ISLANDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...
BRIEF PERIODS MVFR ALONG WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE POSSIBLE IN
SHWRS. KEPT VCSH MENTION AT TJSJ/TJMZ SITES AT LEAST THROUGH 08/22Z.
KEPT TEMPO MENTIONS FOR SHRA...MAINLY FOR USVI AND TNCM/TKPK. 1740Z
AVIATION SOUNDING AT SJU INDICATED NE TO E WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS
BTWN SFC AND FL150.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 72 82 / 40 40 60 60
STT 73 84 74 83 / 40 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

National Hurricane Center director says 2012 season will be an average one

I am posting this here as a heads up for all in the Caribbean as hurricane season is getting closer. Even if it turns out that the upcomming season is average,it only takes one to do all the damage to a place. Even if it is quiet,we have to be prepared for anything that may threat the Caribbean / Central American basin.

BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, Wednesday March 7, 2012 - Hurricane season is still a few months away in the Caribbean but businesses and homeowners are being given early indicators that this season should not be excessively fierce.

The National Hurricane Center’s new director, Bill Read, said this week that they expect an average season, with 12 tropical systems, and around 6 becoming hurricanes, in contrast with last year’s busy season in which there were 19 storms.

Read attributed this likelihood to the fact that sea surface temperatures is forecast to be cooler this year than in 2011.

Read more: http://www.caribbean360.com/index.php/n ... z1oZ3XGr20

[Macrocane]

HOTTEST TEMPERATURE IN 2 YEARS REGISTRED IN SAN SALVADOR

What a difference one day makes, at least for El Salvador, the minimum temperatures were pretty cool in all the region as the last effect of the cold surge but the northerly winds ended in the morning, the continental cool air became tropical and warm and with completely clear skies the temperatures warmed up especially in El Salvador. These are the observaions for Wednesday March 7 2012:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama. Near normal in Costa Rica. Cooler than normal in Belize, Guatemala and El Salvador.

Belize city, Belize 20°C (68°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13.4°C (56.1°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.0°C (42.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.9°C (62.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.5°C (50.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.2°C (61.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 2.0°C (35.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 25.5°C (77.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.1°C (75.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.9°C (57.0°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in El Salvador. Near normal in Guatemala. Cooler than normal in Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 24.2°C (75.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25.6°C (78.1°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 18.2°C (64.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 35.6°C (96.1°F) HOTTEST SINCE FEBRUARY 2 2010
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.6°C (67.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 38.9°C (102.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 9.3°C (48.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 34.5°C (94.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.7°C (89.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 19.4°C (66.9°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 AM AST FRI MAR 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
AND DIP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...THEN LINGER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN DOING SO...
EXPECT WEAK SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS TO PROPAGATE EASTWARDS THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL SAG ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD BY SATURDAY...A WEAKLY INDUCED
INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA FROM THERE ON AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING BY LATE SUNDAY AND
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE RADAR IMAGES ARE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS WATER EAST OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE WEST WITH SOME AFFECTING EASTERN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING TODAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT FROM SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. PWAT VALUES
WILL CONTINUE IN THE RANGE OF 1.25-1.50 INCHES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THOUGH THE
INCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 09/18Z. PASSING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST/TISX AND TJBQ THROUGH 09/12Z.
BETWEEN 09/18-09/22Z...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR
TJMZ IN PASSING SHRA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND WINDS WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY.
HOWEVER A MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL LOCAL PASSAGES THROUGH THE INCOMING
WEEKEND.THIS IS A BODERLINE HIGH SURF EVENT AS SWELLS ARE AT
AROUND 7.5 FEET AND THE PERIODS ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 10 TO 11
SECONDS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUE LATER TODAY IF THIS
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 83 74 / 40 60 60 30
STT 84 74 83 74 / 40 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. In general,a relative nice weekend is expected for Puerto Rico with the usual afternoon showers in the interior and some nightime showers in Northern and Eastern PR.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
118 PM AST FRI MAR 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH BRIEF
SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN EACH ONE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT THE AFOREMENTIONED SERIES OF MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS TO PROVIDE A FEW PERIODS OF FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT DEEP MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY
BE LACKING. HOWEVER...CERTAINLY SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
OCCASIONAL BANDS AND PATCHES MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EACH
DAY TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS (INCLUDING RATHER STRONG MARCH
HEATING) AND TROUGHINESS...TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO EACH AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER AREAS...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...AND LOCALLY NUMEROUS
PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
5 TO 9 FEET IN NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL COASTAL
WATERS...EXCEPT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
PUERTO RICO...WHERE SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION.

OF NOTE...AS PREVIOUS SHIFT ALLUDED TO...HAVE HAD ONGOING
BORDERLINE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT LOCAL MARINE
OBSERVATIONS HAVE INDICATED THAT MOST BREAKERS HAVE REMAINED
BELOW THE 10 FOOT LOCAL WFO CRITERIA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS...BUT IRRESPECTIVE OF AN ADVISORY...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
MAY STILL OCCUR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY FUELS...LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF DECENT INSTABILITY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...STILL EXPECT THAT A COUPLE OF WILDFIRES COULD DEVELOP EACH
DAY...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE AGAIN REMINDED TO SAFELY
DISPOSE OF ALL FLAMMABLE MATERIALS IN THE PROPER RECEPTACLES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 74 83 / 60 60 30 30
STT 74 83 74 84 / 30 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

Here is the Febuary Climate report for Puerto Rico/U.S Virgin Islands.

Monthly Summary

A generally fair and mainly dry weather pattern prevailed across the local islands during the first two weeks of February with just passing showers along the north and east coast of Puerto Rico as well as over the U.S. Virgin Islands. This pattern of limited low level moisture and stable conditions helped to suppress significant afternoon convection across Puerto Rico. By mid-February, afternoon showers were noted each day across the interior and west sections of Puerto Rico due to diurnal heating combined with an increase in low level moisture and enough upper level dynamics. The remainder of February was dominated by a return to high pressure ridge and its associated fair weather pattern across the local islands.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=feb2012cr

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
624 AM AST SAT MAR 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH BRIEF
SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN EACH ONE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE
WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE AFFECT THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND USVI THROUGH MID MORNING.


AN UPPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE
ENHANCEMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. WINDS WILL BECOME LESS STRONG AND WITH A
MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT...THEREFORE EXPECT OCCASIONAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LAST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL GENERATE GOOD
VENTILATION.

EXPECT THE AFOREMENTIONED SERIES OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS TO
PROVIDE A FEW PERIODS OF FAVORABLE DYNAMICS DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 10/18Z. PASSING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND TJSJ/TIST/TISX DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BTWN 10/18-22Z...
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TJMZ AND TJPS IN SHRA/TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEAST SWELL CONTINUED SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ROUGH FOR
MARINERS AND BEACH GOERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. WINDS HAVE ALSO
DECREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 83 73 / 40 40 40 40
STT 84 74 84 74 / 40 20 20 40

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. For Puerto Rico/USVI and BVI,variable conditions will prevail at least thru next Tuesday. I cansee in the web cams and by looking at the sattelite images that is cloudy with some showers in the Lesser Antilles and that is caused by a jet stream inducing a trough that is over those islands.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
206 PM AST SAT MAR 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MIGRATORY HIGHS WILL HELP SUSTAIN A RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROUGH PATTERN
ALOFT CONTINUES AS A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY
GOOD...IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE MIGHT BE IN SHORT SUPPLY. SO MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RATHER CONSERVATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE USVI AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. HOWEVER...IF THE ADVECTION OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY COINCIDES
WITH THE TIME OF MAX HEATING...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR IT TO
START GENERATING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR THAT REASON...WE WILL LIKELY GO WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...OUR LOCAL HI-RES MODEL SUGGESTS ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SOME ACTIVITY OCCURRING ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. ASIDE
FROM THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER AREAS...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES DURG NXT 24 HRS. NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AND THE NORTHEAST SWELL CONTINUED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ROUGH FOR
MARINERS. AS A RESULT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR AMZ710
(ATLANTIC OFFSHORE) THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE AND COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 73 82 / 40 40 40 40
STT 74 84 74 84 / 20 20 40 40

[Gustywind]

Good afternoon. For Puerto Rico/USVI and BVI,variable conditions will prevail at least thru next Tuesday. I cansee in the web cams and by looking at the sattelite images that is cloudy with some showers in the Lesser Antilles and that is caused by a jet stream inducing a trough that is over those islands.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
206 PM AST SAT MAR 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MIGRATORY HIGHS WILL HELP SUSTAIN A RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROUGH PATTERN
ALOFT CONTINUES AS A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY
GOOD...IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE MIGHT BE IN SHORT SUPPLY. SO MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RATHER CONSERVATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE USVI AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. HOWEVER...IF THE ADVECTION OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY COINCIDES
WITH THE TIME OF MAX HEATING...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR IT TO
START GENERATING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR THAT REASON...WE WILL LIKELY GO WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...OUR LOCAL HI-RES MODEL SUGGESTS ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SOME ACTIVITY OCCURRING ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. ASIDE
FROM THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER AREAS...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES DURG NXT 24 HRS. NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AND THE NORTHEAST SWELL CONTINUED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ROUGH FOR
MARINERS. AS A RESULT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR AMZ710
(ATLANTIC OFFSHORE) THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE AND COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 73 82 / 40 40 40 40
STT 74 84 74 84 / 20 20 40 40

Hi Cycloneye ! You're right my friend. Meteo-France Guadeloupe forecasted numerous and strong showers Monday and maybe Tuesday even with a small risk of isolated tstorms. We will see...

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST SUN MAR 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES AS A SERIES OF SHORT-
WAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS MOVED ON SHORE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO
RICO...WITHOUT GENERATING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY THEREFORE SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND LATER
SPREAD SOUTHWEST...AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IS THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ENOUGH
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THESE REGIONS. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MID WEEK.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL KEEP GOING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A
JET SEGMENT OVER THE LOCAL REGION WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 11/18Z. PASSING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND TJSJ/TIST/TISX DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BTWN 11/18-22Z...
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TJMZ AND TJPS IN SHRA/TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AND THE NORTHEAST SWELL CONTINUED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ROUGH FOR
MARINERS. AS A RESULT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR AMZ710
(ATLANTIC OFFSHORE) THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MONDAY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE AND COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS. A MODERATE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL LOCAL PASSAGES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 81 71 / 40 40 40 50
STT 84 73 82 72 / 20 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SUN MAR 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES AS A SERIES OF SHORT-
WAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL RETURN AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN USA MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS NEAR STATIONARY
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
ISLES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 12Z GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST
INFLOW OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...REMNANT MOISTURE OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
ISLANDS. THIS WILL RESULT ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
ISLANDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...ALL
OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE. ALTHOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY
GOOD...THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
OVERALL...EXPECT ENOUGH VENTILATION TO COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO SUPPORT THE
TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR...SOUTH AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT THE STORM MOTION WILL BE LESS THAN 5 KTS...AS A RESULT...
SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONGER OVER THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER
IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
ONLY FOR THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
ELSEWHERE. A MODERATE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND ALL LOCAL PASSAGES BY MID WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 72 83 / 40 40 20 40
STT 73 82 72 84 / 50 50 20 40