Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1313 UTC 13/03/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Lua
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 18.5S
Longitude: 114.6E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: near stationary
Speed of Movement: 0 knots [0 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 14/0000: 17.7S 114.2E: 050 [095]: 045 [085]: 986
+24: 14/1200: 17.1S 114.2E: 080 [150]: 050 [095]: 982
+36: 15/0000: 17.2S 114.5E: 110 [210]: 060 [110]: 975
+48: 15/1200: 17.9S 115.6E: 145 [270]: 065 [120]: 973
+60: 16/0000: 18.6S 117.1E: 190 [355]: 075 [140]: 962
+72: 16/1200: 19.9S 119.0E: 240 [445]: 080 [150]: 958
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Lua lies well north of the west Pilbara coast.
Dvorak DT is hovering around 3.0 with a CI of 3.0m supported by MET. ASCAT
imagery from earlier in the day showed marginal gales in the SE quadrant and
hence max winds have been set at 35 knots [10 min].
Movement is very slight with the steering balanced between an upper ridge to the
southwest and strengthening monsoonal northwesterlies to the north. A slow
motion to the north is forecast through 24 hours then a faster southeasterly
track is forecast for the following days towards the east Pilbara coast as the
ridge weakens and the monsoon intensifies. There is general agreement across
model guidance for this scenario.
Steady intensification is forecast under the influence of low wind shear and
warm SSTs, although SSTs may cool owing to upwelling with the slow motion. NWP
indicate a broad system which would indicate rapid intensification is less
likely. A broad area of monsoonal gales is expected to develop north of the
centre by Thursday.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 13/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
![Image](http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg204/scaled.php?server=204&filename=idw60280.gif&res=medium)