2012 U.S Severe Weather (Videos-Photos-Stats-Forecasts)

[somethingfunny]

We'll find out in a few more minutes. I'm leaning against it and thinking they'll leave it as a broad SLGT Risk, but there might be evidence enough to issue an MDT Risk in Eastern Texas...

Crazy,do you expect a upgrade by SPC to Moderate Risk for Monday?

Well since Crazy hasn't responded yet, I will. Yes, I do. Even if they don't I believe it will be worse than predicted like every other severe weather outbreak event so far. I think even aside from tornadoes the swath will be huge and flooding, large hail, high winds, etc. will be the main items. Training cells were even mentioned in the SPC outlook.

You're on!

I agree that flooding and squall line winds will be a major problem tomorrow and Tuesday, but I'm taking the under on the SLGT/MDT question.

[somethingfunny]

Okay you win.



There's a 45% probability for severe wind in roughly the same area as the MDT. 10% tornado probs, and a 15% probability of hail >2", with a hatchmarking for much of Central Texas.

[cycloneye]

We'll find out in a few more minutes. I'm leaning against it and thinking they'll leave it as a broad SLGT Risk, but there might be evidence enough to issue an MDT Risk in Eastern Texas...

Crazy,do you expect a upgrade by SPC to Moderate Risk for Monday?

Well since Crazy hasn't responded yet, I will. Yes, I do. Even if they don't I believe it will be worse than predicted like every other severe weather outbreak event so far. I think even aside from tornadoes the swath will be huge and flooding, large hail, high winds, etc. will be the main items. Training cells were even mentioned in the SPC outlook.

You're on!

I agree that flooding and squall line winds will be a major problem tomorrow and Tuesday, but I'm taking the under on the SLGT/MDT question.

And there we have it now.Let's see how today's event unfolds,hoping that we dont hear tragic news comming out from this. Those who may be in the danger zone have a NOAA radio to get the quick information that may safe lives.

[cycloneye]

Updated stats of 2012 Severe Season from January 1rst thru March 19th

A total of preliminary reports of 329 Tornadoes have been reported so far in the 2012 Severe Season thru March 19th.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/mo ... mmary.html

All reports of Tornadoes,Wind and Hail:



Reports of Tornadoes only:



Tornado activity from January 1rst thru March 19th:

[Texas Snowman]

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lbf/?n=tor03182012

Glad this didn't go through the heart of the town.

[cycloneye]

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lbf/?n=tor03182012

Glad this didn't go through the heart of the town.

To let you know that your thread was merged with the main 2012 severe season thread to not have many threads about individual data of Tornadoes diseminated thru the forum.

[cycloneye]

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lbf/?n=tor03182012

Glad this didn't go through the heart of the town.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
229 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012 /129 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012/

...PRELIMINARY TORNADO RATING OF EF3 IN NORTH PLATTE...

A STORM SURVEY OF LAST NIGHTS NORTH PLATTE TORNADO IS BEING
CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. BASED ON THE DAMAGE
OBSERVED SO FAR...A PRELIMINARY DAMAGE RATING OF EF3...OR WINDS BETWEEN
136 MPH AND 165 MPH...HAVE BEEN ASSIGNED TO THE TORNADO. THE
HIGHEST LEVEL OF DAMAGE HAS BEEN TO RESIDENCES ALONG WEST FRONT
STREET ALONG WITH MANGLED POWERLINE TRUSSES ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF NORTH PLATTE. IN ADDITION...THE NWS HAS RECEIVED REPORTS OF
FOUR INJURIES SUSTAINED IN THE TORNADO.

A FULL STORM REPORT WILL BE PROVIDED WHEN THE DAMAGE SURVEY IS
COMPLETED.

$$[/b]

[cycloneye]

Slight Risk on Wednesday for SE Louisiana and SW Alabama.



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO WOBBLE AND
MOVE SLOWLY NWD DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND EAST TX AS A BELT OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THE WRN EDGE OF
THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND ALONG A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
LOCATED FROM ERN AR SWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN LA. THIS LINE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SERN LA AND SW MS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z WEDNESDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE FROM
BATON ROUGE NWD TO NATCHEZ MS SHOW MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG...0-6 KM
SHEAR OF 30-35 KT AND 850 MB FLOW OF 40-45 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH CELLS THAT ROTATE WITHIN THE LINE. A SEVERE THREAT
COULD EXIST AS FAR NORTH AS ERN AR BUT WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD
MAKE THE THREAT INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH NWD EXTENT.

...SW KS/WRN OK/NW TX...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD ACROSS NW TX INTO
WRN OK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS SFC TEMPS HEAT UP BENEATH THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE FROM SW KS SSEWD
ACROSS WRN OK. SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S F AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 40S F ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
CORES. THE POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SEE
TEXT AREA ATTM.

..BROYLES.. 03/20/2012

[cycloneye]

The Slight Risk continues today for SE Louisiana and Southern Miss.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL AND ERN LA INTO SRN
MS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NEWD ON WED...CENTERED
FROM N TX INTO OK WITH STRONG FLOW EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE MS VALLEY. UNDER THE UPPER LOW CENTER...VERY COLD AIR WILL
PRODUCE STEEP LAPSE RATE PROFILES WITH DAYTIME STORMS. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS...FROM SRN MO INTO ERN AR/LA AND MS.

TO THE E...A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AGAIN HELPING TO TRIGGER DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE VIRGINIAS INTO THE CAROLINAS.

...LA INTO SRN MS...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG AND NEAR
OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY NWD INTO AR AND MO.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER LA AND SRN MS...WITH UPPER 60S F
DEWPOINTS. WITH STRONG SHEAR...EMBEDDED CELLS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR BRIEF TORNADOES.

...MUCH OF OK AND N TX...
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER OK AND TX...AS VERY COOL AIR ALOFT
DRIFTS NEWD WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL HELP
TO MAXIMIZE CAPE VALUES...WITH RELATIVELY LARGE LIFTED INDEX VALUES
DEPICTED BY SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE NO WIND
SHEAR...HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR INITIATION WILL BE OVER SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX...THEN SPREADING
NNEWD WITH WEAK MEAN FLOW. A FEW CELLS MAY PROPAGATE A BIT TO THE
RIGHT OF THE MEAN WIND.

...WV/VA INTO THE CAROLINAS...
A SIMILAR EVOLUTION TO YESTERDAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT HELP TO INITIATE
SCATTERED MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS OVER CENTRAL VA AND NC. WEAK NWLY
FLOW ALOFT AND FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST CELLS WILL PROPAGATE IN A
SWD/SWWD DIRECTION WITH A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT.

..JEWELL/HURLBUT.. 03/21/2012

[cycloneye]

Tornado Watch issued for parts of LA/Miss

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 97
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

TORNADO WATCH 97 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LAC005-035-037-041-051-057-063-065-067-071-075-083 -087-089-091-
093-095-103-105-107-109-117-123-212300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0097.120321T1510Z-120321T2300Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ASCENSION EAST CARROLL EAST FELICIANA
FRANKLIN JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE
LIVINGSTON MADISON MOREHOUSE
ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES RICHLAND
ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA
ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. TAMMANY
TANGIPAHOA TENSAS TERREBONNE
WASHINGTON WEST CARROLL


MSC001-005-021-029-031-035-037-039-041-045-047-049 -055-059-061-
063-065-067-073-077-079-085-089-091-109-111-113-12 1-123-125-127-
129-131-147-149-163-212300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0097.120321T1510Z-120321T2300Z/

MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE
COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST
FRANKLIN GEORGE GREENE
HANCOCK HARRISON HINDS
ISSAQUENA JACKSON JASPER
JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES
LAMAR LAWRENCE LEAKE
LINCOLN MADISON MARION
PEARL RIVER PERRY PIKE
RANKIN SCOTT SHARKEY
SIMPSON SMITH STONE
WALTHALL WARREN YAZOO


GMZ530-532-534-536-538-212300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0097.120321T1510Z-120321T2300Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

MISSISSIPPI SOUND

LAKE BORGNE

CHANDELEUR SOUND

BRETON SOUND

ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB...

[cycloneye]

Updated graphic of the slight risk areas for today and tonight that include parts of Northern Texas and parts of SE LA and MISS.

[RL3AO]

2nd earliest tornado on record in Minnesota.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cm ... 5&source=0

[cycloneye]

Tornado Watch until 1:00 AM CDT for SE Louisiana and Southern Miss

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 98
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
605 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

TORNADO WATCH 98 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LAC075-087-220600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0098.120321T2305Z-120322T0600Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD


MSC023-031-035-039-041-045-047-059-061-065-067-073 -075-091-101-
109-111-123-129-131-153-220600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0098.120321T2305Z-120322T0600Z/

MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CLARKE COVINGTON FORREST
GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK
HARRISON JACKSON JASPER
JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES LAMAR
LAUDERDALE MARION NEWTON
PEARL RIVER PERRY SCOTT
SMITH STONE WAYNE


GMZ532-534-536-538-555-557-220600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0098.120321T2305Z-120322T0600Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

MISSISSIPPI SOUND

LAKE BORGNE

CHANDELEUR SOUND

BRETON SOUND

COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT 20
NM

ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...JAN...

[cycloneye]

A big slight risk area is issued for Friday.



Uploaded with imageshack.us

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY
REGION SWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC MOVES VERY
SLOWLY SEWD TOWARD THE U.S. W COAST...AN UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
MO AREA EARLY AND INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE
FORECAST THIS PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...ONLY A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE MS/OH VALLEY
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST...WITH A LOW FORECAST TO DRIFT ROUGHLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER FEATURE AND A WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION SWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST IS AT HAND THIS PERIOD...WITH VERY WEAK
SURFACE FEATURES AND NON-TRIVIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM
REGARDING UPPER LOW TIMING AND LOCATION. WITH SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY REGION HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF
THE UPPER COLD POOL...AND THE THREAT FARTHER S DEPENDENT UPON
LOCATION OF THE WEAK SURFACE CONFLUENCE AXIS...MODEL DIFFERENCES
SUBSTANTIALLY COMPLICATE DELINEATING SPECIFIC THREAT AREAS.

CONSIDERING THESE FACTORS...BUT GIVEN BROAD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL -- I.E. STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES CONTRIBUTING TO AMPLE INSTABILITY IN BOTH AREAS...ALONG WITH
ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT WITHIN A BROAD ZONE CIRCLING THE UPPER LOW --
WILL INTRODUCE A LARGE/BROAD SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS FORECAST.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS BENEATH AND AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW -- ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEY AND POSSIBLY THE
TN VALLEY/MID SOUTH AREA -- WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
MODEST DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS. WITH SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
STORMS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ACROSS THIS AREA...THREAT
FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS IS APPARENT...WITH AN ISOLATED
LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT ALSO POSSIBLE.

FARTHER S...WEAKER LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE PARTIALLY COMPENSATED
BY RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND WITH MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AN
AFTERNOON INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED. WITH
SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.

OVERALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION SHIFTS
EWD INTO THE APPALACHIANS REGION.

..GOSS.. 03/22/2012

[cycloneye]

The slight risk area shifts eastward for Saturday.



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM GA INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ESEWD FROM IL/IND EARLY SAT INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY SUN MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH SHOULD DEEPEN NEAR THE APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON...DRIFTING
EWD ACROSS VA AND INTO THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH...SWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S F...WHICH WILL RESULT IN INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

ELSEWHERE...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE JUST OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WITH A CHANCE OF WEAK CONVECTION MAINLY OFFSHORE.

...SE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LOW...BUT THE EXACT TRACK IS IN QUESTION. THE FORECAST WILL ALSO BE
COMPLICATED BY EARLY RAIN AND STORMS. REGARDLESS...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...AND COOLING ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SMALL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL OVER THE ENTIRE
RISK AREA. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER VORT TRACK AND WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE. HERE...A
HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY
OCCUR...STARTING OVER MIDDLE OR ERN TN. WILL DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS
FOR ANY HIGHER PROBABILITIES GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES...BUT AT THIS TIME
IS APPEARS TO BE CENTERED OVER SC.

..JEWELL.. 03/23/2012

[cycloneye]

The latest update of the stats of the 2012 Severe Season:

360 preliminary reports of Tornadoes so far in 2012.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/mo ... mary.html#

[cycloneye]

The slight risk area is in the Mid Atlantic states today.



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
PLAIN...VA TO GA...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-AIR PATTERN FCST...AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE
WILL BE BRACKETED BY CLOSED 500-MB CYCLONES JUST OFFSHORE PAC COAST
AND OVER ERN STATES. ERN FRINGE OF COLDEST MIDLEVEL TEMPS AND
STEEPEST LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ASSOCIATED WITH PAC
CYCLONE...SHOULD BRUSH COASTAL NRN CA WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER. MEANWHILE...ERN LOW IS FCST TO MOVE FROM NEAR EVV AT START
OF PERIOD...ESEWD ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS TO WRN PORTIONS CAROLINAS
BY 25/12Z.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY IN
PERIOD...AND OVER PIEDMONT REGION OF CAROLINAS/GA DURING DAY.
PREFRONTAL TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE ALSO IS POSSIBLE.

...PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN...VA-GA...
TWO PRIMARY/SEQUENTIAL CONVECTIVE EPISODES APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER THIS
REGION...WITH ENOUGH SPATIAL OVERLAP THAT SVR AND ENHANCED-THUNDER
PROBABILITY AREAS ARE CONTINUOUS.

1. INITIAL BAND OF TSTMS...OCCUPYING LOW-LEVEL WAA
CONVEYOR...SHOULD SHIFT NEWD TO EWD ACROSS CAROLINAS AND SRN/SERN VA
DURING 24/12Z-24/21Z TIME FRAME...MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS IT TRANSLATES FROM PIEDMONT ACROSS COASTAL
PLAIN TOWARD TIDEWATER. THOUGH DIABATIC SFC HEATING SHOULD BE
LIMITED BY AREAS OF CLOUD COVER...WEAK BOUNDARY-LAYER CINH AND SFC
DEW POINTS 60S F SHOULD ENABLE EVEN MODEST/MUTED HEATING TO RENDER
500-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE WEAK TO MRGL...SINCE THIS REGIME STILL WILL BE DISPLACED FROM
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW. SPORADIC
STG-DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE MAIN THREAT...WITH BRIEF/CONDITIONAL
TORNADO POTENTIAL.

2. BEHIND EARLY ACTIVITY...STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AHEAD
OF APCHG LOW AND DIABATIC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF NEAR-SFC LAYER
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON...CORRIDOR OF 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER PIEDMONT. FRONT...PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...SEA
BREEZES...AND SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALL MIGHT SERVE AS FOCI
FOR TSTMS OVER THIS REGION AT VARIOUS TIMES DURING MID-AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK...WITH SWLY FLOW
THROUGH MOST OF TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER...INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SPEED/BULK SHEAR...E.G. EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES 35-40 KT AND 0-6 KM LAYER SHEAR MAGNITUDES 40-45 KT.
BLEND OF DISCRETE AND LINEAR MODES APPEARS POSSIBLE...OFFERING
THREAT FOR SVR HAILSTONES AND DAMAGING GUSTS. AS WITH EARLIER
ACTIVITY...TORNADO RISK APPEARS CONDITIONAL ON LOCALIZED/STORM-SCALE
PROCESSES TO ENHANCE VORTICITY/SRH.

...OH VALLEY TO TN VALLEY REGION...
CORRIDOR OF STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AIDED BY COOLING ALOFT
AND SFC DIABATIC HEATING...WILL WORK WITH 50S/LOW 60S DEW
POINTS...IN SUPPORT OF SCATTERED TSTM POTENTIAL FROM ERN OH/WRN PA
SWD INTO MTNS OF TRI-STATE/KY-VA-TN AREA. GREATEST TSTM COVERAGE
SHOULD BE MID-AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SVR HAIL/GUSTS
ARE PSBL. FLOW N THROUGH E OF LOW WILL VEER WITH HEIGHT BUT WILL BE
WEAK IN LOW LEVELS NEAR CYCLONE CENTER...RESULTING IN SMALL
HODOGRAPHS. STILL...AT LEAST MRGL TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP
WHERE TSTMS INTERACT WITH POCKETS OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY.
AFTERNOON MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG SHOULD BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM AREAS OF
SUSTAINED THICK CLOUDS/PRECIP.

FARTHER SW ACROSS PORTIONS SRN IL...WRN KY AND TN...WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AROUND SRN
SEMICIRCLE OF DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE AND POST ISOLATED SVR THREAT.
RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE -- I.E. DEW POINTS 50S F -- WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK CINH...DIABATIC HEATING AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITH MAIN RISK OF HAIL...AND SECONDARY
WIND RISK. EVEN WNWLY-NWLY SFC FLOW REGIME S-SW OF MIDLEVEL LOW MAY
BE FAVORABLE IN SEEMINGLY UNCONVENTIONAL WAYS. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT VEERING/INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT THROUGH LOWEST 2 KM
AGL YIELDS CURVED HODOGRAPHS...WITH 200-300 J/KG SRH POSSIBLE
THROUGH SAME LAYER FOR ANY CELLS MOVING DEVIANTLY RIGHTWARD/SWD.

SVR THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH ENTIRE COLD-CORE REGION SHOULD DIMINISH
MARKEDLY AFTER DARK.

..EDWARDS/DARROW.. 03/24/2012

[AdamFirst]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC001-003-007-019-023-031-041-047-089-107-109-121-125-242300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0104.120324T1445Z-120324T2300Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CLAY COLUMBIA DUVAL
GILCHRIST HAMILTON NASSAU
PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SUWANNEE
UNION

[cycloneye]

The number of deaths related to Tornadoes so far in 2012 is 55. I really hope the numbers on this stay much lower than last years numbers when it reached the stounding number of 550.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/torn/fataltorn.html

[cycloneye]

Tornado Watch issued

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
1100 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
DANVILLE VIRGINIA TO 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FAYETTEVILLE
NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 104...WW 105...WW
106...WW 107...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN VA AND THE NC PIEDMONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM SPREADS EAST AND COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS ALREADY SUPPORTING SEVERE
STORMS AND LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WATCH AREA HAS BACKED TO MORE
ELY COMPONENT APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO 1) SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
OVER WRN NC/VA...AND 2) WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BCMG BETTER
DEFINED FROM NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER SEWD TO THE NC COASTAL PLAIN.
STORMS MOVING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
ENHANCED WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE STRONG LOW LEVEL
ROTATION. STORMS TRACKING NEAR OR ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR ANY
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF TIME WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR A FEW
TORNADOES. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
SUPERCELLS...ALONG WITH SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...CARBIN