Texas Spring 2012

[Texas Snowman]

Jim Cantore reporting that more than 50 homes were damaged or destroyed in Medina County although no deaths or critical injuries have been reported. Also says law enforcement has shut down I-35 from mile marker 131 to 147 and assistance is being called in from other counties.

[Rgv20]

Wow those are some nasty storms...Keep safe you guys!!

For my area we are not expecting anything severe but the winds are sure gusting tonight...40+mph gusts in the past hour.

[weatherdude1108]

Raining constantly nonstop moderately to heavily since about 1:30am to when i posted this. Flooding concerns all over Austin Metro and adjacent hill country. But the silver lining is the highland lakes are getting a boost!

http://floodstatus.lcra.org/

Be careful out there.

[Ntxw]

Drought? What drought?! Its been raining non stop here since late afternoon yesterday and still is, the rivers and lakes should mostly be full after this. Houston joins in on the flooding later this morning.

[Portastorm]

Overall the event didn't live up to the hype (at least for us in AUS) ... no severe in Austin but the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Travis County received a little less than 3 inches which is cool! And, even better, the Hill Country got a lot of rain and the lakes will be rising some!

[Tejas89]

What a nice soaker for NTx. At least several inches across the area, although it looks like radar estimates are overblown a bit as is common with a heavy event like this.

Nevertheless, Lavon and other lakes will be full and over capacity very soon this week.

[weather_novice]

In San Antonio we only had 1.5 inches, about half of what Austin got, and a quarter of what Dallas can speak of. Anyone think this last storm at the end of this month is our last shot at a Pacific grown storm?

[Portastorm]

In San Antonio we only had 1.5 inches, about half of what Austin got, and a quarter of what Dallas can speak of. Anyone think this last storm at the end of this month is our last shot at a Pacific grown storm?

I don't think so, weather_novice. I think we may see some more this spring. Nina has waned and a Nino is coming on. If the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) keeps active like it has been, we could see more.

To me, it seems like this summer is shaping up as a more classic Texas summer. For example, I think we'll see an active seabreeze this summer and that could mean showers during the evening on some nights as the seabreeze rolls in from the coast. I don't buy the latest CPC forecast for drier and warmer than normal. Those forecasts for this winter turned out to be a bust. I like our chances.

[weatherdude1108]

In San Antonio we only had 1.5 inches, about half of what Austin got, and a quarter of what Dallas can speak of. Anyone think this last storm at the end of this month is our last shot at a Pacific grown storm?

I hope not! We got 2.1 inches in Cedar Park. It's definitely so much different than this time last year. It was supposed to be dryer than normal this whole Winter. Surprise! The weather guy on tv awhile back said there's a correlation between soil moisture and weather systems. Last Spring and Summer, the drought fed back on itself. Depleted soil moisture led to higher temps, further depleting more soil moisture, leading to higher temps, and weather systems that came in didn't have anything to work with. Now that we have widespread soil moisture due to a pattern shift, I think the odds are in our favor for a less intense Summer than last year. That is probably too simplistic given the numerous other variables involved. I'm pulling for a return to El Nino myself.
My brother in San Antonio said that he and his family went into the closet when the tornado warnings were issued. Nothing happened. They were fine. But it kept everyone on their toes!

[weather_novice]

I hope so PortA... I read recently that the best chance for a US landfall of either a tropical storm or hurricane is from a Gulf bred storm hitting a Gulf State. If we could get something like Hermoine again I'm sure the drought monitor would show white over San Antonio. Kind of amazing given that we've had more rain in these first three months (12.46inches) since 1992.. and before that the closest to accumulation is 1889 with 12.3 inches.
I hope things pan out like you say weatherdude. San Antonio is the 4th hottest city in the nation when you consider the average number of days over 90degrees (111 days) but maybe we'll have another enjoyable "cold" summer like 2010.

[weather_novice]

A couple things I've noticed:

In San Antonio we speak of being in a drought since the average annual precipitation since 1871 has been 29.03 inches and the average precipitation for the last four years in San Antonio has been 24.855 inches. But when you consider a 5 year period by including 2007 as well, that number is slightly more than the average at 29.33inches.

Yet people compare this drought to the devastating one in the 1950's. The 4 year period from 1953 to 1956 saw an average precipitation of 15.944 inches. When you extend analysis to a 5 year period by including 1957 which saw 48.83 inches of precipitation--more than 1953, 1954, and 1955 combined--rather than 1952 which saw roughly 26 inches, the average is still much much less at 22.516 inches.

Same analysis may be extended to Austin. The period from 1952-1956 saw an average of 21.352 inches of precipitation, far below the average of 32.38inches which goes back to 1856. The period from 2008-2011 has seen an average of 26.225. When you include 2007 that number is 30.368 which is roughly average.

[Ntxw]

PNA is going to spike again and the AO sink. I'm not sure what it does for spring (usually different than midwinter) but I'm guessing seasonably mild with continuing storms that track close enough to Texas. April may start out cooler than average, we'll have to see. Agree with Portastorm this summer will be more normal for Texas. Keep an eye on the east pacific, if it is active during the tropical season expect a wet and mild summer.

I'm not certain on this and haven't had the time to research, but it seems tornado outbreaks (as a whole) don't verify to the hype during -PDO's for Texas and wants to focus in the midwest/ohio valley/mid south. If anyone wants to chime in on this feel free to do so!

[somethingfunny]

Here's a good blog post about what happened yesterday:

http://texasstormchasers.com/2012/03/20 ... e-weather/

Furthermore, I believe the ULL ended up tracking well south of where it had been predicted to, which cut North Texas off from alot of the expected upper level support for severe storms. All the other ingredients were definitely there, just one or two things were missing. I wouldn't paint with any broad brush suggesting a particular PNA or PDO or AO or ENSO or whatever could preclude a tornado outbreak in Texas because it certainly could have happened yesterday.

[Ntxw]

Furthermore, I believe the ULL ended up tracking well south of where it had been predicted to, which cut North Texas off from alot of the expected upper level support for severe storms. All the other ingredients were definitely there, just one or two things were missing. I wouldn't paint with any broad brush suggesting a particular PNA or PDO or AO or ENSO or whatever could preclude a tornado outbreak in Texas because it certainly could have happened yesterday.

Well as a whole not just yesterday . The models never really pointed to a major outbreak and I remember trying to just focus on central Texas (it was even a tad more south than that) and things looked linear from the beginning for most of Texas. Just an inquisitive thought for maybe a statistician to answer

[Portastorm]

As a result of rains from last night/this morning, Lake Travis has risen several feet ... the largest rise in the lake since Hermine (August 2010).

[TeamPlayersBlue]

As a result of rains from last night/this morning, Lake Travis has risen several feet ... the largest rise in the lake since Hermine (August 2010).

Yeeeessssss

[vbhoutex]

Drought? What drought?! Its been raining non stop here since late afternoon yesterday and still is, the rivers and lakes should mostly be full after this. Houston joins in on the flooding later this morning.

Surprisingly no flooding that I am aware of here in the Houston metro area. The line was moving quickly enough there wasn't as much chance for training to set up. It did/has slowed/stalled to our East and has given that portion of SE TX another drenching. We have had rain on and off all day long, but nothing like we expected. Here at the house in W. Houston I got about 1.25"(haven't emptied gauge yet). Our drought situation has been assuaged somewhat, at least talking short term. Long term is another matter, but we are is so much better shape than we were last year that is refreshing.

[weather_novice]

Three tornadoes touched down in Texas in and around Bexar county. So far it has been confirmed that the one in Devine was an EF2 and the one in Natalia was an EF1.

[Tireman4]

As a result of rains from last night/this morning, Lake Travis has risen several feet ... the largest rise in the lake since Hermine (August 2010).

Ahh man, we cannot see the sunken cars anymore...? LOL. No this is great news!!!

[somethingfunny]

As a result of rains from last night/this morning, Lake Travis has risen several feet ... the largest rise in the lake since Hermine (August 2010).

Ahh man, we cannot see the sunken cars anymore...? LOL. No this is great news!!!

I hope people along the lakes took the opportunity to clean all the gunk off the lakebeds when they had the chance. Stuff like that makes me nervous when I go swimming.