ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[HurrMark]

You're not alone, Luis. I just saw the new Euro Nino 3.4 area forecast. I've been talking to Phil Klotzbach about the prospect of an El Nino and higher pressures across the Atlantic this season. It's looking like we may see considerably fewer named storms than 2010/2011. Of course, that doesn't rule out a major impact but it does probably make multiple major impacts less likely (from different storms).

I respectfully disagree. Yes, there will undoubtedly be fewer storms if these conditions take place. However, you have to keep in mind that even though there was such a high number of storms the last two years, there was virtually no US impact (except Irene and to a lesser extent, Lee), since so many storms were shunted out to sea due to troughiness in the Atlantic. If this troughiness isn't present this year, then there is no place to go but west. So I would think the likelihood of major impact would be greater this year (unless it is like 2007 and everything gets buried in the southern Caribbean).

[wxman57]

You're not alone, Luis. I just saw the new Euro Nino 3.4 area forecast. I've been talking to Phil Klotzbach about the prospect of an El Nino and higher pressures across the Atlantic this season. It's looking like we may see considerably fewer named storms than 2010/2011. Of course, that doesn't rule out a major impact but it does probably make multiple major impacts less likely (from different storms).

I respectfully disagree. Yes, there will undoubtedly be fewer storms if these conditions take place. However, you have to keep in mind that even though there was such a high number of storms the last two years, there was virtually no US impact (except Irene and to a lesser extent, Lee), since so many storms were shunted out to sea due to troughiness in the Atlantic. If this troughiness isn't present this year, then there is no place to go but west. So I would think the likelihood of major impact would be greater this year (unless it is like 2007 and everything gets buried in the southern Caribbean).

I don't think you're disagreeing. A stronger Bermuda High (higher pressures in the deep tropics) would likely lead to fewer named storms and fewer major hurricanes. This could prevent as many storms from recurving east of the Caribbean and/or the U.S., making it more likely that if a major hurricane does form south of 20 degrees it could be driven farther west rather than recurving early. This could mean a possible U.S. threat. Such was the case in a number of past seasons with relatively few named storms (1957-Audrey, 1965-Betsy, 1983-Alicia, 1992-Andrew). However, in such seasons, it is quite rare for the U.S. to be impacted by more than 1 significant hurricane (as in 2004/2005), which was my point.

[HurrMark]

Gotcha. It will be interesting to see what happens with ENSO this year, though. If it's strong enough and we get a 2006ish year, our streak of no major landfalls could quite possibly hit an unprecedented seven years.

[Kingarabian]

I honestly think the Atlantic exhausted itself in 2005. Spawned enough storms to last a decade.

[jinftl]

The consensus ('official forecast') of all the different models as of mid-March show us with enso neutral/bordering weak el nino conditions in June-July-August transitioning to neutral/weak el nino conditions by (anomalies between +0.5C and +1.0C) by the time we reach the peak of the season this year in Aug-Sep-Oct.

The years highlighted in yellow on the graphic below were past seasons that featured similar conditions to the possible scenario being forecast for 2012..season starting with 3-month composites in June-July-August neutral/borderline el nino (+0.2C to +0.5C) moving to neutral/weak el nino by Aug-Sept-Oct and Sept-Oct-Nov (+0.5C to +1.0C).

In general, the seasons highlighted were not the most active...# storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes for each:

1968: 8/5/0
1976: 10/6/2
1977: 6/5/1
1986: 6/4/0
1994: 7/3/0
2009: 9/3/2

Except for these 2 glaring outliers...both in terms of # of storms and very destructive seasons with landfalling systems:

1969: 18/12/5 (Camille)
2004: 15/9/6 (Charley, Frances, Jeanne, Ivan)

That some seasons with similar nino region 3.4 SST anomalies were inactive while others were very active would seem to indicate that this is just one contributing factor in determining overall season activity.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 3/26/12 Weekly Update

Nino 3.4 warmed slightly from -0.6C that was last week to -0.5C in other words,on the borderline between La Nina and Neutral. Nino 1+2 warmed to +0.5C up from +0.4C of last week.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

Ok hopefully I don't bust it this time, but the recent MJO wave is now stuck full force in 7 going into 8. A strong Kelvin wave will likely force out La Nina for good no more false alarms. Westerlies (<- means the atmosphere is finally responding) are taking over the important ENSO regions.



I'm going to make a guess that the next ENSO readings will range between 0.2C and and -0.2C

[Macrocane]

I honestly think the Atlantic exhausted itself in 2005. Spawned enough storms to last a decade.

Are you sure? 2008 and 2010 didn't seem like exhausted seasons to me.

[cycloneye]

Australian 3/27/12 update

The U.S Climate Prediction Center will follow the Aussies and declare the obituary by mid to late April.

Note=When the Aussies say Neutral until next winter,that is for the Southern Hemisphere and viceversa for the Northern Hemisphere.

The 2011–12 La Niña event has ended, with key indicators returning to neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) levels. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that neutral conditions will persist until at least early winter.

Key Pacific Ocean indicators are now at neutral levels, with values similar to those last seen in August 2011. Likewise, atmospheric indicators such as cloudiness, trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have also returned to near-normal values for this time of year. Despite the 2011–12 La Niña not commencing until far later than normal (spring), the decline has been fairly typical of past events, with a peak in January and a return to neutral conditions during autumn.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[weatherwindow]

Despite being statistically improbable at this early date, does anyone believe that this year may signal the reversal of the current ongoing positive(warm phase) AMO? Historically, the warm phase of the AMO varies between 25 and 40 years. The current cycle began in 1995, yeilding a length of approximately 18 years. In addition to the previous question, does anyone know of shortest length of the warm phase in the basin? If in fact the reversal has begun, it will have obvious and ongoing implications for the upcoming hurricane seasons.....Rich

[Ntxw]

Despite being statistically improbable at this early date, does anyone believe that this year may signal the reversal of the current ongoing positive(warm phase) AMO? Historically, the warm phase of the AMO varies between 25 and 40 years. The current cycle began in 1995, yeilding a length of approximately 18 years. In addition to the previous question, does anyone know of shortest length of the warm phase in the basin? If in fact the reversal has begun, it will have obvious and ongoing implications for the upcoming hurricane seasons.....Rich

A lot of people make the mistake of thinking short term with the pdo and amo. They are long term signals and even if a flip does occur suddenly the real noticeable effects won't take place until years after. Teleconnections/enso and tropical forcing are the better routes to go imo. As their name suggests they are decadal occurances and may show upticks during diff decades, but to use for any given season is not a good call

[Ptarmigan]

I honestly think the Atlantic exhausted itself in 2005. Spawned enough storms to last a decade.

Are you sure? 2008 and 2010 didn't seem like exhausted seasons to me.

2008 and 2010 were more favorable for Cape Verde than in 2005. 2008 had three storms make landfall on Texas, the most since 1989.

[Kingarabian]

SOI has fallen, but not too rapid.

[cycloneye]

SOI has fallen, but not too rapid.

The daily SOI continues to fall and if it continues to go that way next week,then it will cross into negative.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

[euro6208]

SOI has fallen, but not too rapid.

The daily SOI continues to fall and if it continues to go that way next week,then it will cross into negative.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

[Ntxw]

Daily SOI values have been well negative the past few days. 30 day and 90 day SOI clearly depicts neutral conditions. We'll see how things progress as Nino 4 has warmed and 3.4 is the lone standing island of nina-ish anomalies.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

[Kingarabian]

From the look @ SST's and various graphs this week, Nino's 3, 3.4, and 4 seem to be warming.

[cycloneye]

Nino 3.4 is still the coldest area of ENSO right now as our friend Ntxw points out. The question is when it will start to warm.



Uploaded with imageshack.us

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 4/2/12 Weekly update

It continues to get warm at Nino 3.4 as is this week up to -0.2C and that is up from -0.5C. Also,Nino 3 is warmer +0.3C and Nino 1=2 warmed up to +0.9C. In other words,for all pruposes it's Neutral and I guess CPC will officially declare it sometime durring this month.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Hurricane Andrew]

Don't you mean up to -0.2C from -0.5C?