Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Not much change to the rainy mainly afternoons for today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST MON MAR 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING NORTHWARDS
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH PREVAILING
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. LOCAL AREA
EXPECTED TO BE STILL IN RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE OF A JET MAX THIS MORNING
AND WILL THUS MAINTAIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED MID LEVEL TROUGH HAS LIFTED JUST
NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LIFTS
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL HOWEVER
QUICKLY ERODE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH BECOMES AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...
THEN SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
BY FRIDAY. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...THEN SHIFT FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
TUESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
PATTERN WILL HELP MAINTAIN A MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
TODAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND A WEAKLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND THUS
TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL CONSEQUENTLY LEAD
TO INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS...AND A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT MUCH OF THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAD LIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION...AS THE LOCAL WIND FLOW BECAME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW HAS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WHILE VEERING WITH
HEIGHT. AS A RESULT MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD NOW BE STEERED
SLIGHTLY MORE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS EXPECTED MOST OF THE
CONVECTION TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...THE BREAK IN CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT HEATING TO COMBINE WITH THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTH SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOME
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY WHERE LESSER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.

BY TUESDAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY EXPECT INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS...
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS EACH DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE WOULD SINK SOUTHWARDS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC. IF IN FACT THIS OCCURS...EXPECT ADDITIONAL
FRONTAL MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MONITOR AN SEE HOW
THIS UNFOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
AFTER 26/15Z. HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT TIST AND
TISX IN SHRA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW LLVL AFTER 26/16Z
WITH SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PR AND MOVING
NORTH... COVERING MUCH OF THAT SIDE OF PR WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
AND SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 26/22Z. TJSJ 26/00Z SOUNDING
INDICATED A VERY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW FROM A
SURFACE TO AROUND 10K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER...UP TO
100 KNOTS...ALOFT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...THE DAILY RAINFALL FOR MARCH
25TH AT THE SAN JUAN LMM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS BEEN 3.09
INCHES. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.75
INCHES FOR THAT DAY SET IN 1956. IN ADDITION...THE CURRENT MONTHLY
TOTAL OF 6.30 INCHES HAS BROKEN THE OLD MARCH MONTHLY RECORD OF
5.41 INCHES SET IN 1958.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 84 74 / 60 30 30 40
STT 84 73 84 74 / 30 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

I think the ash particules from the Soufriere Volcano are comming to the northern islands as the winds have changed direction from the SE. Here we are in a hazy sky situation,and by looking at the different cams from the islands,gray skies are seen.

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. Mainly diurnal showers will form in the interior and Northern parts of PR.The effects of that trough that have been the culprit for a wet pattern for the past week have almost ended,so in other words,a more normal pattern for this time of the year will return with no big weather makers on the horizon.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
222 PM AST MON MAR 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SHEARLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THROUGHINESS CONTINUES TO DOMINATED
THE LOCAL REGION. LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER A COL REGION TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...CREATING A VERY WEAK STEERING
CURRENT. STRONG JET WILL CONTINUE STREAMING ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH WILL AID IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE
SHOWERS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. WILL MONITOR SITUATION VERY
CLOSELY. WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THURSDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST COASTS. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS
ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...POSSIBLE TSRA AT JSJ BETWEEN 19Z-21Z TODAY SO INCLUDED
A TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...P6SM FEW030 AT ALL
OTHER AIRPORTS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. STEERING WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTH TOMORROW WITH SCT SHRAS/TSRA POSSIBLY AFFECTING
JPS. WINDS GO CALM TONIGHT AS AREA BECOMES UNDER A COL REGION.
THEN WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AFTER 14Z AROUND 10 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 74 82 / 30 30 40 40
STT 74 84 74 84 / 30 30 40 40

[Macrocane]

Hi, these are the temperatures registered yesterday in Central America.

Minimum Temperatures

-Near normal in Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Cooler than normal in Belize, Honduras and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 16.9°C (62.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15.0°C (59.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 3.7°C (38.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.5°C (65.3°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.5°C (47.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.7°C (72.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.1°C (61.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.6°C (40.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 18.5°C (65.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 20.7°C (69.3°F) Coolest since February 21 2012
Boquete, Panama 14.6°C (58.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Costa Rica. Near normal in Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama. Cooler than normal in Guatemala and El Salvador.

Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 28.6°C (83.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.3°C (68.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 35°C (95°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.3°C (86.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.0°C (69.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.7°C (98.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.5°C (85.1°F) Warmest since september 28 2011
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 36.3°C (97.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.6°C (92.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.8°C (71.2°F)

[cycloneye]

Above normal rainfall has been the rule in these normally months of Febuary and March.I hope this is not an omen for what the 2012 hurricane season may bring for the Caribbean and Central America.

Code: Select all

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL

PRECIPITATION (IN)
  TODAY            0.01          1.65 1963   0.07  -0.06     0.05
  MONTH TO DATE    6.31                      1.59   4.72     1.13
  SINCE MAR 1      6.31                      1.59   4.72     1.13
  SINCE JAN 1     12.01                      7.74   4.27     6.03


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=sju

[Gustywind]

Here is video of this impressive waterspout, remember this feature has swept some houses near the beach Sunday afternoon at Sainte Rose Guadeloupe. Hopefully no injuries and death, thanks Lord!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iODnlqZ1Xwc


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4T38ebuPvOk

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Less moisture for today is expected but the usual afternoon showers will occur in the interior and north parts of PR.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST TUE MAR 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL POLAR TROUGH IS NOW SPREAD
ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WITH WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THE MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
SINK EAST SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE DISSIPATING. THE ASSOCIATED REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE IS THEN FORECAST TO STALL NORTH OF THE
AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDING WEAKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC... WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND
THUS LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOWEVER QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT. AS A RESULT...THE LOCAL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ONCE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST TJSJ UPPER AIR DATA AS WELL AS BLENDED TPW AND
GROUND BASED GPS IPW ALL SUGGEST A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER/PWAT VALUES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. THE RELAXED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INDUCE WEAK TROUGHINESS AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. THEREFORE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FORECAST FOR TODAY...EXPECT ONLY LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND A FEW OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS. AS A RESULT OF
THE LIGHT STEERING FLOW EXPECT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PUERTO
RICO TO BE FOCUSED IN ISOLATED AREAS ALONG THE NORTHWEST...NORTH AND
CENTRAL INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN OR AROUND THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. ONCE AGAIN... SOME
OF THE DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY
IN ISOLATED SPOTS. LESSER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
TODAY WITH MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
UNTIL 27/16Z. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT TIST
AND TISX IN SHRA. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AFTER 27/16Z
PRODUCING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
TJBQ AND TJMZ UNTIL 27/22Z. TJSJ 27/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY
LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM A SURFACE TO AROUND 5K
FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY BUT STILL LIGHT FROM 5-20K FEET AND
STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 84 74 / 20 30 30 50
STT 84 74 84 74 / 20 30 30 50

[msbee]

Wow, Gusty, that video is amazing! Glad no one was injured.

quiet here on St. Maarten thankfully. The wind has died down and our skies are very hazy.
Saharan dust I think. the volcano is somewhat active but I think blowing any ash south of us. I have not seen a recent update on that however.

[cycloneye]

Wow, Gusty, that video is amazing! Glad no one was injured.

quiet here on St. Maarten thankfully. The wind has died down and our skies are very hazy.
Saharan dust I think. the volcano is somewhat active but I think blowing any ash south of us. I have not seen a recent update on that however.

Hello Barbara. The Volcano has for the most part gone quiet after a few days of throwing some ash and no new advisories have been released,so on that front we are fine for now,unless it wakes up again. In terms of weather,we are entering into the transition period between the winter and summer that goes into more tropical weather for us and we know what that means.

[Gustywind]

Wow, Gusty, that video is amazing! Glad no one was injured.

quiet here on St. Maarten thankfully. The wind has died down and our skies are very hazy.
Saharan dust I think. the volcano is somewhat active but I think blowing any ash south of us. I have not seen a recent update on that however.

Thanks to you Barbara. Yeah, pretty amazing there, people were shocked like crazy at Ste Rose! I was very impressed by this strong waterspout! My concern is about the path of this feature... because of that's extremely rare to see a waterspout in Guadeloupe crossing on land! The first one given our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe. And we could think that it could have been temporarily transform approach into a very small tornado?! status? That's a possible assumption given my.. untrained eyes . A second assuption: this waterspout have been to maintain its strong winds when its crosses the coast?! I will be glad to have the opinions of an expert...
Hey Cycloneye what do you think about this curious path of this waterspout? Any links, or infos about it?

Glad to see your post and your observations from St Marteen. You're right concerning the volcano, something to keep an eye on. Let's hope that nothing will happen.

[cycloneye]

Wow, Gusty, that video is amazing! Glad no one was injured.

quiet here on St. Maarten thankfully. The wind has died down and our skies are very hazy.
Saharan dust I think. the volcano is somewhat active but I think blowing any ash south of us. I have not seen a recent update on that however.

Thanks to you Barbara. Yeah, pretty amazing there, people were shocked like crazy at Ste Rose! I was very impressed by this strong waterspout! My concern is about the path of this feature... because of that's extremely rare to see a waterspout in Guadeloupe crossing on land! The first one given our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe. And we could think that it could have been temporarily transform approach into a very small tornado?! status? That's a possible assumption given my.. untrained eyes . A second assuption: this waterspout have been to maintain its strong winds when its crosses the coast?! I will be glad to have the opinions of an expert...
Hey Cycloneye what do you think about this curious path of this waterspout? Any links, or infos about it?

Glad to see your post and your observations from St Marteen. You're right concerning the volcano, something to keep an eye on. Let's hope that nothing will happen.

Hi Gusty. I have not seen information about that waterspout posted on any weather sites. That was an amazing video of it, that didn't do harm to people as I see the news from there.

[cycloneye]

Is supposed to be the dry period for Puerto Rico,but this 2012 March has been all the contrary as records of rainfall keep being broken.

CLIMATE...MARCH 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE THIRD WETTEST MARCH
ON RECORD THE SAN JUAN OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATION WITH A TOTAL OF
6.31 INCHES. THE WETTEST MARCH ON RECORD WAS 1927 WHEN 9.38 INCHES
WERE MEASURED.

FOR ST. THOMAS...MARCH 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE FIFTH WETTEST
MARCH ON RECORD WITH 3.24 INCHES OF RAIN THUS FAR. THE WETTEST
MARCH ON RECORD WAS 1961 WHEN 4.37 INCHES WERE MEASURED.

FOR ST. CROIX...MARCH 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE FOURTH WETTEST
YEAR ON RECORD WITH 2.92 INCHES OF RAIN THUS FAR. THE WETTEST
MARCH ON RECORD WAS 1985 WHEN 4.15 INCHES WERE MEASURED.

[Gustywind]

Is supposed to be the dry period for Puerto Rico,but this 2012 March has been all the contrary as records of rainfall keep being broken.

CLIMATE...MARCH 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE THIRD WETTEST MARCH
ON RECORD THE SAN JUAN OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATION WITH A TOTAL OF
6.31 INCHES. THE WETTEST MARCH ON RECORD WAS 1927 WHEN 9.38 INCHES
WERE MEASURED.

FOR ST. THOMAS...MARCH 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE FIFTH WETTEST
MARCH ON RECORD WITH 3.24 INCHES OF RAIN THUS FAR. THE WETTEST
MARCH ON RECORD WAS 1961 WHEN 4.37 INCHES WERE MEASURED.

FOR ST. CROIX...MARCH 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE FOURTH WETTEST
YEAR ON RECORD WITH 2.92 INCHES OF RAIN THUS FAR. THE WETTEST
MARCH ON RECORD WAS 1985 WHEN 4.15 INCHES WERE MEASURED.

Wow, that's frankly amazing Cycloneye!!!

[cycloneye]

No changes to the afternoon heavy rains in the interior of the island for the next few days as a trough lingers nearby creating rising motion causing the rains,not normal as I have been pointing out for March.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHEARLINE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL STALL
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET. THROUGHINESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO
RICO. VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS
ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...VCTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJPS THROUGH AT
LEAST 27/22Z. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 82 73 82 / 30 30 50 40
STT 74 83 74 83 / 30 30 50 40

[cycloneye]

It has been a very active Tuesday in Puerto Rico as some rivers overflowed over banks. Here is the information about all of what occured with photos and videos. The information has been translated to English. All of this occurs in a supposed dry March.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 22554.html

[cycloneye]

So far,no fatalities have occured with this flooding event that has occured on Tuesday. Here is another video of the Orocovis river raging over a bridge.

http://www.elnuevodia.com/videos-notici ... 57001.html

[Macrocane]

Very impressive videos Gustywind and cycloneye.

The temperatures on March 26 in Central America:

Minimum Temperatures

-Near normal in El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Cooler than normal in Belize, Guatemala and Honduras.

Belize city, Belize 21°C (70°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 15.7°C (60.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14.0°C (57.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.3°C (36.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.0°C (46.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.7°C (62.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.0°C (41.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 18.6°C (65.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.0°C (57.2°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Costa Rica. Near normal in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama. Cooler than normal in El Salvador.

Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 29.1°C (84.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27.7°C (81.9°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.9°C (87.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.5°C (67.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.8°C (98.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F) Warmest since October 7 2011
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.2°C (84.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.7°C (60.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 36.0°C (96.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.0°C (89.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 23.5°C (74.3°F) Warmest since December 10 2011

[cycloneye]

Good morning. After the big flooding event of yesterday that caused some rivers to overflow their banks,more rain is expected today so I can expected more flood advisories popping up later today. I will keep you informed about any news of floodings.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST WED MAR 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SHEARLINE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH WITH WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
MORNING...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE USVI. IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
MUNICIPALITIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CONSIDERABLE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND ANY DIURNAL
HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE FORECAST SOUNDING VALID AT 28/12Z SHOW A LIFTED INDEX OF -7
AND CAPE OF OVER 1800 J/KG. PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY WIND AND A
0-6 KM AVERAGE WIND SHIFTING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST WILL STEER THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. IT
IS ALSO WORTH MENTIONING THAT EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST 0-6KM
AVERAGE WIND AND 0-6 KM STORM MOTION IS SHIFTING FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...THE ACTUAL AVERAGE
WIND SPEED IS FORECAST AT 1-3 KNOTS...KEEPING SHOWERS OVER ANY ONE
GIVEN POINT FOR A CONSIDERABLE PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH NAY LEAD TO
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
UNTIL 28/16Z. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT TJBQ
IN SHRA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AFTER 28/16Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTH PRODUCING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS TJPS AND TJMZ UNTIL 28/22Z. TJSJ 28/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A
VERY LIGHT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND
5K FEET...BECOMING EASTERLY BUT STILL LIGHT FROM 5-10K FEET AND THEN
WESTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.


&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTH AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST
FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT ON THURSDAY FOR
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 84 74 / 40 50 50 50
STT 83 74 83 74 / 40 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

Here is a summary of what occured on Tuesday with the floodings in Puerto Rico and a lot happened but the good news was that no casualties occured. And all of this occurs in March which is supposed to be a dry month. This news from local newspaper has been translated to english.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 22728.html

[Gustywind]

Here is a summary of what occured on Tuesday with the floodings in Puerto Rico and a lot happened but the good news was that no casualties occured. And all of this occurs in March which is supposed to be a dry month. This news from local newspaper has been translated to english.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 22728.html

Impressive is surely an euphemisma ! Waouw that's INCREDIBLE .