WPAC: PAKHAR - Post-Tropical
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- cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W JMA: TD JTWC: TCFA
Is now a Tropical Storm per JMA:
TS 1201 (PAKHAR)
Issued at 01:20 UTC, 29 March 2012
<Analyses at 29/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°20'(9.3°)
E112°30'(112.5°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 30/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°25'(9.4°)
E112°25'(112.4°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 31/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°40'(9.7°)
E112°00'(112.0°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 01/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°00'(10.0°)
E111°20'(111.3°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
TS 1201 (PAKHAR)
Issued at 01:20 UTC, 29 March 2012
<Analyses at 29/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°20'(9.3°)
E112°30'(112.5°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 30/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°25'(9.4°)
E112°25'(112.4°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 31/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°40'(9.7°)
E112°00'(112.0°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 01/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°00'(10.0°)
E111°20'(111.3°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W JMA: TD JTWC: TCFA
We'll have the 2nd TD from JTWC this season shortly. NRL now showing 02W on their page. And we'll probably see the first named storm of the season within today. I like it when I'm monitoring the WPAC/SCS for systems at this early.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W JMA: TD JTWC: TCFA
dexterlabio wrote:We'll have the 2nd TD from JTWC this season shortly. NRL now showing 02W on their page. And we'll probably see the first named storm of the season within today. I like it when I'm monitoring the WPAC/SCS for systems at this early.
We have TS PAKHAR now per official agency of area JMA.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W JMA: TD JTWC: TCFA
cycloneye wrote:dexterlabio wrote:We'll have the 2nd TD from JTWC this season shortly. NRL now showing 02W on their page. And we'll probably see the first named storm of the season within today. I like it when I'm monitoring the WPAC/SCS for systems at this early.
We have TS PAKHAR now per official agency of area JMA.
Ohhh that was so quick.
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- cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: PAKHAR - Tropical Storm
And the ECMWF once again is the #1 model that nailed this development in a consistent way while GFS was vague.
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Re: WPAC: PAKHAR - Tropical Storm
^there's quite a benefit from this storm for us in northern Philippines coz it just induced that cool, breezy northeasterly winds. Today and the last day turned rainy, though.
Well, what can I say about Euro. They nailed it again.
Well, what can I say about Euro. They nailed it again.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: WPAC: PAKHAR - Tropical Storm
It looks amazing for a minimal TS right now. I'm thinking this couldn't only be the season's first named storm, but could also be the season's first official typhoon. Any thoughts?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: PAKHAR - Tropical Storm
WTPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (PAKHAR) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 9.9N 111.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9N 111.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 10.1N 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 10.3N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 10.6N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 10.9N 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 11.4N 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 12.0N 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 111.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (PAKHAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST
OF HO CHI MINH CITY, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: PAKHAR - Tropical Storm
Hey all! I posted a video on Pakhar, as always and feedback I am always appreciated, Hope your all have a good night!
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEZyk9hA-wk[/youtube]
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEZyk9hA-wk[/youtube]
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- cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: PAKHAR - Tropical Storm
Still a Tropical Storm per JMA:
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/
TS 1201 (PAKHAR)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 30 March 2012
<Analyses at 30/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°50'(9.8°)
E111°20'(111.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 31/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°10'(10.2°)
E110°30'(110.5°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 01/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°40'(10.7°)
E109°05'(109.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 02/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°20'(11.3°)
E107°50'(107.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/
TS 1201 (PAKHAR)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 30 March 2012
<Analyses at 30/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°50'(9.8°)
E111°20'(111.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 31/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°10'(10.2°)
E110°30'(110.5°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 01/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°40'(10.7°)
E109°05'(109.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 02/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°20'(11.3°)
E107°50'(107.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
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