24.3n-86.4w????

[cycloneye]

Is that location the area where maybe a LLC is forming because NRL 95L has it at that position and convection has increased there.

[wxman57]

Convection does not an LLC make. Nothing there that I can see. The mid-level center is way up to the north now. This thing probably won't do much in the Gulf, maybe a weak depression moving into northern Florida Peninsula then out into the Atlantic.

[ColdFront77]

Not too far from 21.0ºN 86.0ºW (near the Yucatan peninsula). Maybe closer to 20.0ºN-21.0ºN 84.0ºW.

There has been indication of an upper level high developing over this area of convection.

One of the local meteorologists indicated a surface low over the Gulf of Mexico, west-northwest of the possible development near the Yucatan.

[cycloneye]

Wxman57 I just saw Steve Lyons and he said that a MLC may be trying to form at that area 21n-86w but he didn't elaborate more but he also said that regardless plenty of rain will go to florida penninsula and the pannhandle.

[wxman57]

Just because some local weathercaster put an "L" on a map doesn't mean anything either. Some weathercasters will do that just to indicate that there is a disturbance that needs to be watched. I'd like to see facts to support claims of an LLC. Facts would include surface obs showing lower pressure and a cyclonic cirulation, QuickSCAT data showing a clear LLC, or strong banding of low-level cumulus on satellite imagery. This area has none of the above. Therefore, it is just an area of thunderstorms that we need to keep an eye on. Believe me, when a real LLC develops you'll know it. If you have to ask "is that an LLC?" then it most likely isn't.

[ColdFront77]

I never said there was a LLC near the Yucatan. This local meteorologist had the red L in the Gulf of Mexico, really nowhere near the convection near the Yucatan.

This feature has a chance to develop. Conditions aren't not favorable for development as of this afternoon.

For the record, this meteorologist has been forecasting central Florida weather for about 35 years.

[ameriwx2003]

Luis.. not sure. I did notice though for the 18Z tropical model run they intialized 95L at 24.3 and 86.4 Earlier in the day it looked to me like there was a LLC in the Gulf but it disappeared so obviously I was wrong lol. It will be interesting to see if a LLC does form exactly where that might be:):)

[hurricanedude]

If this season dont hurry and end we might have a cat fight in here..LOL

[cycloneye]

Ok americwx2003 let's see if a LLC forms first and then the models can iniciate better as apparently they did do it wrong there at that location but time will tell if something develops from there but rain will be the sure bet for that area of Florida going to the pannhandle.

[ColdFront77]

There are currently no Flood Watches out for the Florida panhandle.

So, not only the Florida panhandle is in for some activity of some sort, so is southwestern, west-central and central Florida.

[ameriwx2003]

Luis... thats for sure Moisture is going to be drawn out of the NW Caribbean regardless of any development:):) and Florida is in for some very wet weather. I still have a feeling something will develope out of all this mess:):) WE will see:):)

[wxman57]

I never said there was a LLC near the Yucatan. This local meteorologist had the red L in the Gulf of Mexico, really nowhere near the convection near the Yucatan.

This feature has a chance to develop. Conditions aren't not favorable for development as of this afternoon.

For the record, this meteorologist has been forecasting central Florida weather for about 35 years.

Sorry, CF, I didn't mean to imply you had said there was an LLC there. I was just pointing out that you can't trust what you see in the local media. As an exapmple, Neil Frank, whom you will agree knows just a little about hurricanes, indicates tropical disturbances (not depressions) on his maps with an "L" and the letters "T.D." below it. The T.D., he says, stands for "Tropical Disturbance". It's his way of getting the attention of his audience. Of course, a met would interpret the placing of an "L" on a map as an indicator of a closed LLC, and the letters "TD" are an abbreviation of Tropical Depression. But 99.99999999999% of Neil Franks' viewers don't know what an "L" or the letters "TD" mean, so it's not a problem.