2012 U.S Severe Weather (Videos-Photos-Stats-Forecasts)

[cycloneye]

Tornado Watch issued for Northern North Carolina and Southern Virginia from 6:45 PM EDT until Midnight EDT

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 109
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
645 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT FROM 645 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
RICHMOND VIRGINIA TO 25 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF DANVILLE
VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 104...WW 105...WW
106...WW 107...WW 108...

DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED TSTM/CYCLIC SUPERCELL NOW NEAR LYNCHBURG VA
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NE TO ENE AT ABOUT 20-25 KTS. STORM APPEARS TO
HAVE BEEN AIDED BY SHALLOW WSW-ENE ORIENTED BOUNDARY THAT BECOMES
MORE DIFFUSE WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS S CNTRL VA. STRENGTH OF STORM
AND REASONABLY UNSTABLE/MOIST ESELY LOW LVL FLOW AHEAD OF IT SUGGEST
THAT IT MAY PERSIST FOR SOME TIME LATER THIS EVE...POSING A THREAT
FOR SVR HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. FARTHER S...STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG NNE-SSW CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
NEAR LYNCHBURG INTO PIEDMONT NC. SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR AND FORCING
FOR ASCENT APPEAR PRESENT TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR INTERMITTENT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THAT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL...LOCALLY
DMGG WIND...AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO TORNADOES THROUGH MID TO LATE
EVE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24020.


...CORFIDI

[cycloneye]

Slight Risk for Tuesday:



Uploaded with imageshack.us

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE INDIANA/IL VICINITY
SWWD INTO FAR SERN KS/NERN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL BUT POTENT UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS NRN MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE NRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PAC NW COAST...THOUGH A
LEAD IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE LATE.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...S OF A SLOWLY FILLING LOW WHOSE
TRACK IS PROGGED TO ROUGHLY COINCIDE WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO FORECAST TO SHIFT INLAND ACROSS THE
PAC NW...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER IMPULSE.

...MIDWEST WSWWD ACROSS THE MO OZARKS...
WHILE MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS AGAIN EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING CENTRAL U.S. COLD FRONT...ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FROM SERN IA/WRN IL SWWD INTO THE NERN OK
VICINITY...AS GENERALLY 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE EVOLVES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WITH FLOW ALOFT VEERING/INCREASING WITH HEIGHT TO NEAR 40 KT AT MID
LEVELS...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS
SUGGESTS THREATS FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WHILE THIS
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...A FEW STORMS -- AND ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL -- SHOULD
SPREAD EWD INTO THE LOWER LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY WITHIN THE ZONE OF
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT.

..GOSS.. 03/25/2012

[cycloneye]

I didn't know where to put this important report about Tornadoes and Hail,but I thought this thread would be good to have this posted.

http://www.gpsworld.com/gis/emergency-m ... -beyond-gr

The Tornado and Hail Risk Beyond Tornado Alley report analyzes hazard risk at the state-level across the U.S using the new CoreLogic wind and hail data layers. Key findings include:
• Tornado risk actually extends across most of the eastern half of the U.S. rather than being confined to the Midwest.
• According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), of the top ten states with the highest number of tornado touchdowns between 1980 and 2009, only three actually fell within Tornado Alley.
• At least 26 states have some area facing extreme tornado risk.
• At least 11 states have significant areas facing extreme hail risk, and almost every state east of the Rocky Mountains has some area facing a moderate or higher level of hail risk.
• The area of highest hail risk extends outward from the central Great Plains to include states as far east as Georgia and the Carolinas.

Tornado Risk



Hail Risk

[cycloneye]

Days 4-8 outlook

Not a stone forecast yet about the next big severe weather event.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

VALID 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
DIFFERENCES AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE THIS FORECAST...AND
WHILE NOT AS EXTREME AS IN PRIOR DAYS...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
SUBSTANTIALLY COMPLICATED THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST -- PARTICULARLY
FROM DAY 6 /SUN 4-1/ ONWARD AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
BEGIN SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. LONG-WAVE RIDGE...DEEPENING A
BIT DAY 5 /SAT 3-31/ AS IT SHIFTS THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE ERN
CONUS. WHILE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND
THE ASSOCIATED/WEAK SURFACE LOW/FRONT...THE SYSTEM OVERALL DOES NOT
APPEAR POTENT ENOUGH TO DRIVE A MORE WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
EVENT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.

AS THE LARGE WRN TROUGH BEGINS EMERGING INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE
PERIOD...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER TO SOME DEGREE WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING...AND MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THESE DIFFERENCES ALOFT OBVIOUSLY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ON THE LOCATION AND ORIENTATION OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES --
WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A STRONG N-S COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MN SWD
TO THE TX/LA BORDER AT THE START OF DAY 7...WHILE THE ECMWF DEPICTS
A FRONT AT THIS TIME STRETCHING SWWD FROM A LOW OVER IA SWWD ACROSS
SERN OK INTO CENTRAL TX.

WHILE A BROAD SCALE VIEW SUGGESTS HEIGHTENED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WITH THE EJECTION OF SUCH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATION/STRONG SURFACE SYSTEM...THE ONGOING DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE MODELS PRECLUDE ANY SKILLFUL ATTEMPT AT HIGHLIGHTING
SMALLER-SCALE/CONCENTRATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREAS ATTM.


..GOSS.. 03/27/2012

[cycloneye]

Day 4-8 Outlook issued on 3/28/12

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

VALID 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE EWD EJECTION OF A
SUBSTANTIAL CHUNK OF THE PERSISTENT NERN PACIFIC UPPER
SYSTEM...SHIFTING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DAY 4 /SAT 3-31/ AND
THEN INTO THE PLAINS DAY 5. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
PERSIST BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...EVEN MORESO THAN THE MODEL RUNS
FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

WHILE THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL -- AND
EVENTUALLY THE ERN/NERN U.S. -- WOULD LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS DEPICTED IN THESE TWO MODELS CAST
CONSIDERABLE DOUBT AS TO EVEN ROUGH APPROXIMATIONS OF TIMING AND
LOCATION. THE ECMWF APPEARS SUBSTANTIALLY MORE ROBUST WITH RESPECT
TO SEVERE POTENTIAL -- PARTICULARLY BEYOND DAY 4...WITH ITS MUCH
SLOWER/NEGATIVELY-TILTED PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS
AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS WHICH SHIFTS A MUCH FLATTER SYSTEM QUICKLY EWD
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S./GREAT LAKES REGION. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
MODEL DIVERGENCE...WILL ONCE AGAIN FOREGO AN AREAL HIGHLIGHT THIS
FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 03/28/2012

[cycloneye]

Day 4-8 Outlook issued on 3/29/12

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ROUGHLY DAY 5
/MON 4-2/ WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING OF THE EJECTING WRN SYSTEM...BUT
DEVIATIONS FROM DAY 6 /TUE 4-3/ ONWARD -- AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES
AREAS NEAR AND E OF THE APPALACHIANS -- RESULT IN FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE LATTER 2/3 OF THE PERIOD.

WHILE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST DAY 4 /SUN 4-1/...PRIMARILY
NEAR A WARM FRONT INVOF THE UPPER MS VALLEY...LARGE-SCALE RIDGING
STILL IN PLACE WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM STILL OVER THE ROCKIES SUGGESTS
THAT ANY THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO EXIST DAY 5...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS...AND A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY...AND REACHES A POSITION FROM
ROUGHLY THE UPPER MS VALLEY SSWWD ACROSS MO AND INTO E TX. WHILE
SOME THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST AS FAR N AS THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION...GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY FROM THE
OZARKS SWD/SEWD TO THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
HERE...STRONG SHEAR AND AMPLE INSTABILITY SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION LIKELY AND ASSOCIATED
THREATS FOR WIND/HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. THREAT WILL
SPREAD EWD WITH TIME...POSSIBLY REACHING THE TN VALLEY AND AL DURING
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED SHIFT EWD
ACROSS THE ERN U.S. DAY 6...AND WILL LIKELY HAVE MOVED TO/OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY 6 PERIOD...WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS FOLLOWING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AGAIN HOWEVER...WITH
MINOR DEVIATIONS IN MODEL SOLUTION EXPANDING DAY 6...WILL NOT
AREALLY HIGHLIGHT ANY THREAT AREAS WHICH MAY BE EVENTUALLY ADDED
NEAR/E OF THE APPALACHIANS. WITH LARGE-SCALE/PERSISTENT RIDGING
FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A LULL
IN CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY APPEARS
LIKELY -- AND THUS PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS APPEAR CONFINED
TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 03/29/2012

[cycloneye]

Mesoscale discussion of 3/30/12 at 1:12 PM CDT

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0389
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL OH...CNTRL/SRN IND...SRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 301812Z - 301945Z

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HRS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN OH SWWD INTO CNTRL IND AND SRN IL.
SVR STORMS WILL BE PROBABLE...AND A WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BY 19-20Z.

MIDDAY MESOANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NWRN
IND AT 17Z...WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MOVING E
ACROSS LK MI. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS...CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPR 70S WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S...IS BOUNDED BY A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO CNTRL/SRN
MO...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD INTO ERN KY. STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM RESIDE ABOVE THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR
AIRMASS...AND WILL AID IN MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG BY PEAK
HEATING. MEANWHILE...AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THE SURFACE LOW
AND WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO OH...WHILE THE COLD FRONT DROPS
S-SEWD TOWARD SRN IND AND IL. THE COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE AND
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE FRONT...AS WELL AS WEAK
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER
WAVE...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 19-20Z BASED ON RECENT RUNS OF THE
HRRR.

MIDLEVEL WLYS RANGE FROM 50 KT NEAR THE LK MI IMPULSE...TO 20-30 KT
OVER SRN IL...AND WILL YIELD SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR /I.E. 0-6 KM BULK WIND DIFFERENCE FROM 20-40 KT/ FOR
ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL STORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE
LINEAR NATURE OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...STORMS MAY
TEND TO ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS...AND WILL POSE A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM
FRONT OVER IND AND OH...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE STRONGLY
BACKED...WHICH WILL MAXIMIZE LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /0-1 KM
SRH AOA 150 M2 S-2/...AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

..GARNER.. 03/30/2012


ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...I LX...LSX...

LAT...LON 41168501 41178263 39738277 37788809 37678948 38269010
39318941 41168501

[cycloneye]

Here is an impressive video of the March 2 2012 EF-4 Tornado that strucked Henryville High School Gymnasium in Indiana.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9rr0KFy ... r_embedded

[cycloneye]

There is a slight risk for Monday in the Southern Plains:



Uploaded with imageshack.us

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT SUN APR 01 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NM ON MON AND
INTO W TX BY TUE MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
WITH THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS LOW...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A 70+
KT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WILL NOSE INTO SWRN TX BY 00Z. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EXIST OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE...WITH SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR MAINTAINING MID 60S
F DEWPOINTS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXIST OVER THE MS VALLEY...AND A NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THIS RIDGE ACROSS MN
AND WI OVERNIGHT. AGAIN...MODELS DIFFER WITH THE ECMWF MUCH SLOWER
WITH THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN AND SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
AFFECT MN...IA...WI AND IL.

MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LEAD SRN STREAM IMPULSE AFFECTING THE NWRN
GULF COAST AREA WITH MOSTLY HEAVY RAIN.

...MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN OK INTO CNTRL TX...
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MID 60S F DEWPOINTS...STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND LITTLE CIN BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE WELL IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH A SOMEWHAT MERIDIONAL FLOW REGIME
ALOFT...A DRYLINE WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WRN OK INTO
CNTRL TX. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR...BUT CONVERGENCE WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG. DESPITE MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES...SLOW MOVING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...SOME
VERY LARGE. LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY...AS WILL HEAVY
RAIN.

OTHER STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND N OF A SAGGING COLD FRONT FROM NRN
OK INTO KS...WITH HAIL POSSIBLE.

...MN/WI/IA/IL/SRN LOWER MI AND NRN IND...
SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER MUCH OF MN EARLY
MON MORNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND A 25-30
KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET. SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR A FEW
LONGER LIVED MORNING CORES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. THIS AREA OF LIFT
WILL LIKELY SHIFT EWD DURING THE DAY...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL INTO WI. IF THE NAM OR GFS SOLUTIONS HOLD WITH
THE QUICKER UPPER TROUGH MOTION...AN MCS COULD FORM AND CONTINUE
SEWD OVERNIGHT WITH HAIL AND WIND AS FAR SE AS NWRN OH.

..JEWELL.. 04/01/2012

[cycloneye]

Day 4-8 Outlook issued at 4/2/12

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CDT MON APR 02 2012

VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE
MS VALLEY REGION ON THUR/D4 AND PHASING WITH AN ERN TROUGH WITH AXIS
NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SOME SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE D4 FROM LA EWD ACROSS SRN
MS/AL/GA...AND ALSO ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS ON FRI/D5.
HOWEVER...THE DEGREE OF SEVERE COVERAGE IS IN QUESTION...WITH MODELS
IN DISAGREEMENT WITH UPPER LOW TRACK. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTIONS
ARE MOST PROBABLE...HIGH END SEVERE IS NOT EXPECTED.

ALSO ON FRI/D5...A LARGER TROUGH WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WRN STATES
AND WILL EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THEY ALSO DEPICT A RATHER NARROW MOISTURE
PLUME RETURNING NWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO KS. WHILE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE...OVERALL COVERAGE DOES NOT
WARRANT A 30% OR HIGHER SEVERE AREA AT THIS TIME.

BY SAT/D6...THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT IN A
NEGATIVE TILT FASHION ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...BUT QUESTIONS
REGARDING INSTABILITY THAT FAR NORTH REMAIN...AND...MODELS DIFFER ON
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW. A MEAN OF THE ECMWF AND GFS WOULD
SUGGEST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM ERN NEB/SD INTO IA...MN...AND WI.

..JEWELL.. 04/02/2012

[EF-5bigj]

Here is an impressive video of the March 2 2012 EF-4 Tornado that strucked Henryville High School Gymnasium in Indiana.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9rr0KFy ... r_embedded

Wow this is really impressive it just whiped out the wall and roof in seconds it could certainly flatten most houses and would just obliterate mobile homes.

[Cyclenall]

I didn't know where to put this important report about Tornadoes and Hail,but I thought this thread would be good to have this posted.

*cut*

The Tornado and Hail Risk Beyond Tornado Alley report analyzes hazard risk at the state-level across the U.S using the new CoreLogic wind and hail data layers. Key findings include:
[b]• Tornado risk actually extends across most of the eastern half of the U.S. rather than being confined to the Midwest.
• According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), of the top ten states with the highest number of tornado touchdowns between 1980 and 2009, only three actually fell within Tornado Alley.
• At least 26 states have some area facing extreme tornado risk.

This is something I've always suspected. Whenever I saw those general tornado risk areas for the US I wondered why it was never extending more into the eastern part like MS, AL, GA, TN, KY, AR, IN, IL, MI, etc. The 2nd stat mentioned does rise your eyebrows. The majority of the US faces extreme tornado risk for the 3rd hmm.

[cycloneye]

Day 2 outlook issued at 4/3/12

This is for Wednesday in the deep south.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CDT TUE APR 03 2012

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS OK DURING THE DAY AND INTO
AR OVERNIGHT...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION. ACCOMPANYING THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE A 60-70 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WHICH WILL BE OVER
NRN TX AT 00Z...ALONG WITH A LEADING SPEED MAX THAT WILL AFFECT
AR...LA...AND MS BY LATE AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL SETUP FROM WRN AR
INTO NERN TX BY AFTERNOON...WITH A DRY SLOT ALOFT SURGING EWD INTO
MS AS WELL. AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AND COOL
PROFILES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM THE SABINE RIVER INTO AL.

TO THE E...MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
NEAR THE BASE OF A NERN U.S. TROUGH...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS VA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

...FAR ERN TX...AR...LA...MS...WRN AL...
A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT AR AND LA WED
MORNING...EVOLVING EWD INTO MS WITH CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND
SOME NEWD TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE MAIN MOIST AXIS
OVER LA. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A WIND AND HAIL THREAT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MIXED STORM MODES BUT OVERALL FAVORABLE VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR SEVERE.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...A SECONDARY ROUND OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED OVER WRN AR INTO NRN LA...MOVING EWD ACROSS MS AND INTO WRN
AL OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGER
MAIN VORTICITY CENTER AND A STRONG COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...CNTRL AND ERN VA AND NC...
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER VA AND NC WITH STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON AND WITHIN A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD NOT BE VERY STEEP BUT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A COMBINATION OF NEW
DEVELOPMENT NEAR A COLD FRONT A EXISTING CONVECTION MOVING SEWD OUT
OF THE OH VALLEY SHOULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT...AND
PERHAPS MARGINAL HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 04/03/2012



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[cycloneye]

Tornado Watch has been issued until 8 PM CDT for counties in Texas including Dallas

Code: Select all

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 133
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

TORNADO WATCH 133 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC001-027-035-085-099-113-119-121-139-145-161-193-213-217-221-
223-231-251-257-281-289-293-309-331-349-367-379-395-397-425-439-
467-497-040100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0133.120403T1710Z-120404T0100Z/

TX
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON             BELL                BOSQUE
COLLIN               CORYELL             DALLAS
DELTA                DENTON              ELLIS
FALLS                FREESTONE           HAMILTON
HENDERSON            HILL                HOOD
HOPKINS              HUNT                JOHNSON
KAUFMAN              LAMPASAS            LEON
LIMESTONE            MCLENNAN            MILAM
NAVARRO              PARKER              RAINS
ROBERTSON            ROCKWALL            SOMERVELL
TARRANT              VAN ZANDT           WISE
$$


ATTN...WFO...FWD...

[Extratropical94]

Two tornadic cells now moving through the DFW area, one SSE of Fort Worth, the other one currently S of Dallas, both moving NE to NNE.
The eastern one, if long-lived, could come dangerously close to Garland. Watch out and prepare to take cover somethingfunny and everyone else in the affected areas!

[Cyclenall]

This is rapidly becoming a bad situation, tornadoes on the ground near populated areas!!!!

Tornado on the ground heading for what I think are heavily populated areas (DFW metro):

TORNADO WARNING
TXC251-439-031830-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0002.120403T1744Z-120403T1830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1244 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN TARRANT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 130 PM CDT

* AT 1244 PM CDT...TRAINED STORM SPOTTERS OBSERVED A TORNADO NEAR
JOSHUA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS
DANGEROUS STORM...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BURLESON AND BRIAROAKS AROUND 1255 PM CDT...
CROWLEY AROUND 100 PM CDT...
RENDON AROUND 110 PM CDT...
EVERMAN...EDGECLIFF AND MANSFIELD AROUND 115 PM CDT...
FOREST HILL AND KENNEDALE AROUND 120 PM CDT...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
I-35W BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 35 AND 59...
I-20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 426 AND 445...
I-30 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 5 AND 23...
I-820 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 35.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES FOR A STORM SHELTER OR PERMANENT BUILDING. IF
NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH AND COVER
YOUR HEAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3278 9703 3257 9704 3255 9706 3255 9709
3252 9709 3239 9725 3243 9748 3286 9731
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 205DEG 21KT 3246 9737

$$


CAVANAUGH

Two tor warnings now, both confirmed on the ground with a history of damage! Might be rain-wrapped and already baseball sized hail reported with the squall line!

[EF-5bigj]

Man there are some dangerous storms in texas right now not good anyone know how strong the tornadoes could be?

[Cyclenall]

Man there are some dangerous storms in texas right now not good anyome know how strong the tornadoes could be?

If you get CNN turn it to that, they are cutting in and out with the live footage and radar. Chad Myers made some estimates on strength but to me it looks like at least EF2+ possibly strengthening. The motion and swirling of the vortex looked violent!! The other thing is these popped up fast and I bet little warning time was given for any of this. Anything could be unfolding right now.

[EF-5bigj]

I saw it was violent and its not over Its hitting the suberbs its also reorganised more

[EF-5bigj]

Crap I saw it just toss semi trailers like nothing