ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Don't you mean up to -0.2C from -0.5C?

Yes,fixed it.

[Hurricane Andrew]

How's the SOI doing?

[cycloneye]

How's the SOI doing?

Tanking.

[Ntxw]

Aside from the eastern and central Pacific warming, notice parts of the western Pacific has been cooling. This is a good signal that the less understood region is balancing the warming on the other side. El Nino looks like a book by the end of this year. Not sure what the cooler waters in the WPAC means for tropical season there (El Nino often portrays cooler wpac waters leading to Oceania drought). Will be interesting to see what the next latest set of models show for Enso.

April 2nd


A month ago early March


Next guess, following update will have enso between 0.3c and -0.1c. Would probably lean more towards even 0c since SOI has reacted.

[Kingarabian]

Lol wow the SOI is really tanking.

[Florida1118]

GOM looks nice and toasty though.

[Kingarabian]

GOM looks nice and toasty though.

It sure does... Wonder how the troughing will be this upcoming season.

[cycloneye]

Is interesting to note that Nino 3.4 is trying to push back the warmer waters and at least for now,the colder ones are dominating. How much more this battle continues is the big question going forward towards the Summer.Having said that,the SOI continues to crash telling us that ENSO is warming,so there are mixed signs at the moment.



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[cycloneye]

I have a question for wxman57 regarding the NCEP models CFS and CFSv2. They look very different with those forecasts. Why is that?

CFS:



CFSv2:



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[Kingarabian]

My name is the SOI, and well, tanking is my thing right now.

[cycloneye]

My name is the SOI, and well, tanking is my thing right now.

http://img708.imageshack.us/img708/4403/soi30.png

And the dailys continue to crash,now well inside negative status.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

[cycloneye]

April update on 4/5/12 by Climate Prediction Center

They will declare ENSO being Neutral later this month. However,going ahead in time,they are a little bit cautious about El Nino comming by Summer or Fall.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

Synopsis: La Niña is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during April 2012.

La Niña continued to weaken during March 2012, as below-average SSTs persisted primarily in the central Pacific (Fig. 1). All of the Niño indices have warmed considerably during the last two months, and the Niño 4 and Niño 3.4 indices averaged only near -0.5 in March (Fig.2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of ocean) anomalies also continued to warm (Fig. 3), with alternating pockets of negative and positive temperature anomalies observed within the upper 100 m in the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Significant anomalous low-level westerly winds developed in the western tropical Pacific in late March, associated with the MJO (Fig. 5). This wind event could further warm the central and eastern Pacific within the coming few months. Presently, however, the larger scale atmospheric circulation anomalies and the Southern Oscillation Index retain their La Niña characteristics. Accordingly, convection remains suppressed in the western and central Pacific, and enhanced over Indonisia, Malaysia and the Philippines (Fig. 6). Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric patterns indicate that a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions is underway.

A majority of models predict ENSO-neutral conditions for March-May 2012, continuing through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2012 (Fig. 7). Based on the continued weakening of the negative SST anomalies during March 2012, and on the historical tendency for La Niña to dissipate during the Northern Hemisphere spring, we continue to expect La Niña to dissipate during April 2012. ENSO-neutral conditions are then expected to persist through the summer. Thereafter, there is considerable uncertainty in the forecast, which slightly favors ENSO-neutral or developing El Niño conditions over a return to La Niña conditions during the remainder of 2012 (see CPC/IRIconsensus forecast)

[Blown Away]

09 - El Nino
10 - La Nina
11 - La Nina
12 - ?

When was the last time we saw Nino, Nina, Nina, then Nino again?

[Ntxw]

09 - El Nino
10 - La Nina
11 - La Nina
12 - ?

When was the last time we saw Nino, Nina, Nina, then Nino again?

If I'm not mistaken, the mid to late 70s. '72-73 was El Nino, 1974 then 1975 were La Ninas followed by El Nino 1976-1977

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,what is your take on the April CPC update?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw,what is your take on the April CPC update?

I think it's a pretty good call. Long term models continue to advertise the MJO will repeat back to the west Pacific come May as mentioned in the CPC update which is key in further warming next month but for now in April warming will probably slow as the MJO moves away from the Pacific. By then we will get a good sense of how quickly/strongly the oncoming possible El Nino will arrive. So far it is behaving very closely as 2009. Euro and CFSv2 both had a good land call on temperature anomalies this winter so I would take them over some of the others. My two cents

[joshb19882004]

The forecast is in! The experts at Colorado State University expect a SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE hurricane season this year! Please remember, however, even if there's only one storm - if it hits YOU, it's a very active season for YOU. Click on the link for the "why" surrounding the forecast.
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/for ... pr2012.pdf

[cycloneye]

Here is the early April consensus of the ENSO Models and in the August,September and October period,they are at Neutral.



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[cycloneye]

The SOI continues to crash well inside negative status and if it continues to go that way,El Nino may come earlier than expected.



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[Kingarabian]

Will see how tomorrows Nino areas update reflect towards the crashing SOI.