Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
321 PM AST SUN APR 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...STILL APPEARS THAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE
LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND TROUGHINESS TO THE NORTH...WITH A SERIES
OF EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS PASSING MAINLY NORTH OF THE FA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...STILL EXPECT
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND EACH DAY TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...GOOD SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE
LIFTING...TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. IN ADDITION...A
WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE NEAR THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY
MID-WEEK...HELPING TO INCREASE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AND WITH SOME
LIMITED SHOWERS...VCSH...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...TJMZ...TJBQ...AFTER 01/19Z.
WINDS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE AT 12 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 14 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
4 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WEDNESDAY AND THEN
CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS LONG PERIOD...NORTH SWELLS
INVADE THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 74 86 / 10 30 10 20
STT 74 84 76 84 / 10 10 10 10

[Macrocane]

Hi! These are the temperatures registered yesterday in Central America:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, Nicaragua and Panama. Near normal in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Costa Rica.

Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.7°C (67.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15.8°C (60.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.6°C (43.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.7°C (67.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.0°C (50.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.6°C (70.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 20.1°C (68.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.6°C (76.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.7°C (60.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Honduras. Near normal in Belize, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Cooler than normal in El Salvador.

Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 30.2°C (86.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 28.0°C (82.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 39°C (102°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.8°C (87.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 24.4°C (75.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.8°C (96.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 31°C (88°F) Warmest since September 9 2011
La Esperanza, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.1°C (84.4°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 36.6°C (97.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.6°C (92.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.9°C (73.2°F)

[cycloneye]

Overall,relatively good weather will prevail for most of the week in Puerto Rico and adjacent islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
853 PM AST SUN APR 1 2012

.UPDATE...TODAY WAS A VERY DRY DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. NO
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS ON LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS
EVENING. THE FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS OVER SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO...DISSIPATED RAPIDLY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ONLY A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS...IF ANY...ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. AN OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT AGAIN FROM THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE TUESDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather is expected for today in PR and adjacent islands. Let's congrat our friend in ST Maarten Patti as today is her birthday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST MON APR 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS WE HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH RELATIVELY STABLE
CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DUE TO THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS...SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY BE LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND IN AREAS OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL...SO ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY DEVELOP...DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS...IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MID WEEK EVEN THOUGH
THE ATMOSPHERE DOES NOT SEEM TO GET ANY MORE UNSTABLE ACCORDING TO
FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

SO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EVEN THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS THAT MAY
PRODUCE FLOODING ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AND WITH
SOME LIMITED SHOWERS...VCSH...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING...TJMZ...TJBQ...AFTER
02/18Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VARIABLE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.


&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET. A NORTHERLY
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THEN CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 74 87 74 / 10 0 10 20
STT 84 75 84 76 / 0 0 10 30

[cycloneye]

It looks like this week will be good in terms of weather in Pr,but by the weekend,some changes will occur as a trough moves nearby.Stay tuned for more information on that as the days progress.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST MON APR 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IS DEPENDENT ON TWO FEATURES. THE FIRST IS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS AND THE SECOND IS AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY 350 MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL SUSTAIN A MOIST SURGE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND RISK OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. IN ADDITION...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE LATE WEEK
PREDICTION FOR MOISTURE IS WHERE THE MOST UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE
FORECAST. OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE GFS AND ECMWF...BOTH SHOW AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW TO WEST OF THE ISLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE DIFFERENCE OCCURS IN HOW DEEP THE TROUGH/LOW ENDS UP. SO FOR
NOW...OUR FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
VARIABLE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE....TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONTINUE UNTIL
FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 74 83 / 10 10 30 40
STT 74 83 74 84 / 10 10 20 20

[msbee]

Happy Birthdya to Patti
Luis, here is a new web cam from st. maarten.
This shows the planes coming in over the beach
http://www.sunsetsxm.com/index.php/home/webcams-update

[cycloneye]

Happy Birthdya to Patti
Luis, here is a new web cam from st. maarten.
This shows the planes coming in over the beach
http://www.sunsetsxm.com/index.php/home/webcams-update

Hi Barbara. Beautiful view at cam. It has been added to the first post of thread,and thanks for posting it.

[Macrocane]

Hi, April has arrived and that means that days will remain warm or become even warmer in Central America, the nights will become warmer as well. These are the temperatures registered on April 1:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, El Salvador and Panama. Near normal in Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Cooler than normal in Guatemala.

Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.2°C (68.4°F) Warmest since November 20 2011
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14.6°C (58.3°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 4.7°C (40.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.9°C (67.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.9°C (49.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 24.8°C (76.6°F) WARMEST SINCE JUNE 14 2011
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.3°C (63.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.9°C (75.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.0°C (57.2°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Honduras. Near normal in Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 27.8°C (82.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27.0°C (80.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 37°C (99°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 32.0°C (89.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.0°C (71.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.0°C (98.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 31°C (88°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 29°C (84°F) Warmest since September 13 2011
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.3°C (84.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 19.4°C (66.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 35.9°C (96.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 34.4°C (93.9°F) Hottest since September 29 2011
Boquete, Panama 24.1°C (75.4°F) Warmest since December 10 2011

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
551 AM AST TUE APR 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NO OVERALL CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A RELATIVE DRY AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT IN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED MAINLY AT 700MB...DUE TO APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM THE NORTH. STILL EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. BY WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA...INCREASING SOMEWHAT THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE ISLANDS. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN THE MEANTIME...A
VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
TODAY...WHICH WILL CREATE HIGHER THAN NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. IN THE LONG TERM...OTHER
THAN PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTING THE REGION FROM TIME
TO TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AFTER 03/16Z PRODUCING ISOLD MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS...BUT TAF SITES SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING AFT
03/14Z. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT BELOW 10 KFT...BCMG
NORTHERLY AFT 03/18Z.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 75 84 74 / 10 10 20 30
STT 84 74 84 75 / 10 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. Relatively good weather will continue thru this week with some showers in the interior of PR each afternoon,but is a big change from what we had in the past two weeks.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST TUE APR 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
BASIN. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WHILE SLOWLY ERODING...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY...THEN LIFTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY. IN LOW LEVELS...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH ANOTHER OLD FRONTAL SHEAR LINE STALLED
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...JUST NORTH OF 20 NORTH. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUED TO SHIFT
FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION. THIS OVERALL PATTERN HAS NOW PUT THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN IN A WEAK COL REGION WITH VERY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE LOW LEVEL WINDS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE CAP AND OVERALL DRY AIR MASS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THEREFORE EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER...BY WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...EXPECT
THE FRONTAL SHEAR LINE NORTH OF THE AREA TO GRADUALLY SINK FURTHER
SOUTH AND BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE TO SETUP...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO INCREASE LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION
ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY OVER PUERTO RICO WHERE
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL BE STRONGER. EXPECT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY TO BE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND
WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS EXCEPT
FOR SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND FEW EARLY MORNING
PASSING SHOWERS EACH DAY MAINLY ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AND WITH
SOME LIMITED SHOWERS...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SOME TRACES OF VOLCANIC
ASH COULD REACH TKPK THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE
AT 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 74 85 / 10 20 30 30
STT 74 84 74 85 / 10 10 30 30

[Macrocane]

Hi! These are the temperaures registered yesterday in Central America:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Near normal in El Salvador and Honduras. Cooler than normal in Guatemala.

Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.9°C (69.6°F) Warmest since November 16 2011
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14.5°C (58.1°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 3.0°C (37.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.0°C (51.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.3°C (64.9°F) Warmest since November 28 2011
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 7.2°C (45.0°F) Warmest since September 28 2011
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.0°C (71.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.9°C (75.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.7°C (60.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Near normal in Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Cooler than normal in Guatemala, El Salvador and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 31.3°C (88.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 38°C (100°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.1°C (86.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.8°C (71.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.1°C (95.2°F) Coolest since February 19 2012
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 30.1°C (86.2°F) Warmest since September 28 2011
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.1°C (62.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 34.9°C (94.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.2°C (90.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.8°C (73.0°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Not much change to the good weather pattern for today in PR.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST WED APR 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A LINE
OF SHOWERS APPROACHING THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
LOOKS DIFFUSE...AND NO ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...CLOUDINESS WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT GOING TO INCREASE MUCH...AS
VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.5 INCHES DURING THE DAY. FOR
TOMORROW...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL ENHANCE SOMEWHAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. IN GENERAL...RELATIVE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT
SHOWERS CANT BE RULE OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL...AS SOME MOISTURE LINGER ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES NEXT 12 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE OFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AS SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. REFER TO
COASTAL WATER FORECAST PRODUCT AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE PRODUCT
FOR MORE INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 86 73 / 10 30 30 30
STT 84 74 85 75 / 0 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

I thought that posting here the April forecast by the folks of Colorado State University Klotzbach and Gray for the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season would be good for the Caribbean and Central America friends to see what they forecast. It calls for much less activity than in the past two seasons for the Caribbean,but please,do not be off guard with this forecast of low activity because it takes one to do all the damage to an island or an area of Central America in particular. Macrocane,the contrary will be for you on the other side of Central America in the Pacific as it looks like that basin will be more active than in the past two years.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/for ... pr2012.pdf

[Macrocane]

It's kind of worrying because we have had 3 consecutive years with big weather disasaters and all of them because of Pacific systems: 2009 November Invest 96E, 2010 Agatha and 2011 TD 12E. From those events the deadliest was the 2009 Invest so we cannot let down our guard regardless the ENSO phase.

[Macrocane]

APRIL 3 2012-A VERY HOT DAY IN CENTRAL AMERICA

Several Central American locations registered the warmest temperatures in months, these are the observations:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Near normal in Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras.

Belize city, Belize 27°C (81°F) Warmest since September 27 2011
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.9°C (71.4°F) Warmest since September 4 2011
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 5.2°C (41.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.9°C (66.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.5°C (52.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.2°C (73.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F) WARMEST SINCE JUNE 12 2011
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 19.0°C (66.2°F) Warmest since October 9 2011
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.8°C (44.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.6°C (74.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.6°C (60.1°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Honduras. Near normal in Belize, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Cooler than normal in El Salvador.

Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 32.3°C (90.1°F) Warmest since June 4 2011
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27.0°C (80.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 41°C (106°F) HOTTEST SINCE MARCH 30 2011
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.2°C (88.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 23.1°C (73.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.3°C (97.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 32°C (90°F) WARMEST SINCE MAY 16 2011
La Esperanza, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 36°C (97°F) Hottest since March 4 2012
Jinotega, Nicaragua 29°C (84°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.0°C (84.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 18.7°C (65.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 35.0°C (95.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.5°C (88.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.5°C (76.1°F) Warmest since December 10 2011

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. Good weather for the long weekend is expected in PR and adjacent islands.However,with this long weekend comes plenty of beachgoers and on that front,we have to be very careful as swells will increase.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
241 PM AST WED APR 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED
TO STALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO
STALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO POOL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE MONA
PASSAGE AS A RESULT OF CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN SLOPES
OF PUERTO RICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

POLAR TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AS A SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDS. HOWEVER...A RAPID EROSION OF
UPPER RIDGE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORT
WAVE PROPAGATES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TOMORROW. UNDER THE PREVAILING
WIND FLOW...EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. IN GENERAL...A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING
THE WEEKEND...BUT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE RULE OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL DUE TO LOCAL
EFFECTS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING. FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.AVIATION...TAF SITES WILL BE VFR NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT BRIEF CIGS
MAY CAUSE MVFR. MOST SHRA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE INLAND PR WITH A
FEW MTN OBSCURATIONS. WINDS ALOFT VRB 15 KT OR LESS SFC TO FL150.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL PASSAGES TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS LIKELY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 85 73 / 10 30 30 20
STT 84 75 85 75 / 10 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

It looks like next week will be a rather wet one for Puerto Rico and adjacent islands if the long range forecast is right.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
918 PM AST WED APR 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT BUT YIELD QUICKLY TO SVRL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THEN TO
EVOLVE ACROSS THE WRN ATLC EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERNIGHT BUT THIS WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET
STREAK CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TRANSLATE QUICKLY
EASTWARD ON AN 80-KT JET STREAK TO REACH 70W BY 00Z FRI. WHILE THE
LOCAL AREA APPEARS TO BE UNDER CONVERGENT RIGHT EXIT REGION OF
JET STREAK...LATEST ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASING RAPIDLY LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION...STEERING WINDS
WILL BE BASICALLY NULL AND THIS COULD SET UP THE STAGE FOR A
LOCALIZED BUT SIG HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SOMEWHERE ACROSS WRN PR.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT QUICKLY FRI MORNING BUT GFS KEEPS DEEP
MOISTURE AROUND TO YIELD AT LEAST SCT POPS WHILE NAM/SREF AND
ECMWF SHOW SOME DRYING.

AS DEEP CUTOFF LOW EVOLVES ACROSS ERN NOAM/WRN ATLC EARLY NEXT
WEEK...OP MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA SHOW A FRONTAL ZONE STALLING
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH DEEP MOISTURE POOLING ALONG
IT. THIS COULD POSE A SIG HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AS WELL AS SEVERE
WEATHER TOO AS MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND MID
LEVEL TEMPS COOL. IT APPEARS MON OFFERS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SIG
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. IF BLOCKING DEVELOPS TO THE EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THIS MIGHT RESULT IN A LONG
FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE...BUT ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS MOVING ACROSS 20 NORTH AND
WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. NEVERTHELESS CONDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT ALL TAF SITES UNTIL AFTERNOON TSTMS FORM
OVER NORTHWEST AND WESTERN INTERIOR PUERTO RICO AFT 05/17Z. LLVL
WINDS BLO 4 KFT WILL REMAIN EAST NORTHEAST 15 KT OR LESS EXCEPT
WHERE LAND/SEA BREEZES OPPOSE.


&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS HAVE ARRIVED AT BUOY 41053 WITH SEAS NOW AT
3.6 FEET AND BUILDING QUICKLY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERNIGHT
WITH SCA AND HIGH SURF CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG THE SHORE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 75 84 / 10 20 20 20
STT 75 77 75 77 / 10 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Increasing showers for the afternoon will occur today in PR. Also,big swells are comming to our shores so be very careful if you go to the beach.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
556 AM AST THU APR 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER THE EASTERN
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO AS AN EASTERLY WINDS FLOW IS BRINGING WITH
IT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH CLOUDINESS STREAMING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL DEPEND ON THE MOVEMENT OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WHICH IS MOVING RAPIDLY FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. IF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA SOONER...WILL INTERACT WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECT...WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER..IF
THE TROUGH MOVE SLOWER...THE THROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVEN TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMITED
SOMEWHAT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE IN BOTH
SCENARIOS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ENOUGH...TO INDUCE A SHOWERY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT TODAY ACROSS PUERTO RICO. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH WILL ENHANCE
ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON FOR FRIDAY. FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATING THE REGION. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS
TIME...LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL STALL JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOP PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 05/16Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS TJMZ...AND TJBQ THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...BOUY OBSERVATIONS SHOWS 7 FEET AT 13 SECONDS IN SAN JUAN
AND 6 FEET AT 13 SECOND IN RINCON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE TODAY...AS NORTHERLY SWELLS INVADE THE COASTAL WATERS.
REFER TO MARINE PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 85 75 / 20 20 20 20
STT 85 74 85 76 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Here is the discussion by Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services about the Colorado State University April forecast and the main message here is,dont let your guard down in the Caribbean and Central America,even if the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season may not be too active as the past 2010-2011 ones.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557