#27 Postby Chacor » Sun Apr 08, 2012 10:18 am
JTWC:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.3N 178.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 680 NM EAST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERIPHERAL BANDS OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. A SERIES OF SCATTEROMETRY PASSES INDICATE CENTRAL WINDS
OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH STRONGER GRADIENT INDUCED PERIPHERAL WINDS OVER
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS, APPROXIMATELY 1.5-2.0 DEGREES
REMOVED FROM THE LLCC. A 080901Z AMSU-B IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL DEEP
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPROXIMATELY 90 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC.
ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE LLCC TO BE
NEARLY COCOONED BY A RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MASS WITH LIMITED MOIST
AIR ENTRAINMENT PROVIDED BY TRADE WIND FLOW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS THE SUBSIDENT DRY AIRMASS THAT SURROUNDS
THE LLCC. THE MOST RECENT AMSU CROSS-SECTION (070900Z) REVEALS A
WEAK WARM CORE ANOMALY THAT IS HORIZONTALLY LARGE AND DISPLACED
HIGHER IN THE TROPOSPHERE THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY SEEN FOR A TYPICAL
WARM CORE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. THEREFORE, DUE TO THE WEAK CENTRAL
WINDS, DISPLACED CONVECTION, AND TEMPERATURE CHARACTERISTICS, THIS
DISTURBANCE IS CLASSIFIED AS A SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT SUGGEST A TRANSITION INTO A WARM CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM BUT
RATHER OPENS THE CIRCULATION INTO A WAVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION POSITIONED
DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE LOW
THRESHOLD FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AT 26-27 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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