Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Hey hey always 31°C today, things are heating up here Not so bad for early April! Looks like a moderate drought have appeared in Guadeloupe 1 month approximetaly. What's up in the others islands in terms of celsius degres? Cycloneye, what about PR?

Hi Gusty. PR so far this year has been thru normal temperatures ranging between 80F-85F as highs.But I know that Summer is comming soon and those temps will rise.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1007 PM AST SUN APR 8 2012

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS WERE HEAVY AND A FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
AFFECTED MUNICIPALITIES. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN LOCAL WATERS AND THESE
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

SHORT TERM GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO TAKE IN CONSIDERATION THE
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS WHAT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI...THEN IN THE AFTERNOON
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS ERN THIRD OF PR AND THE
USVI BUT CIGS SHOULD STAY VFR. NMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE BUT STEERING
FLOW IS PRETTY MUCH ZERO. HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCTS AT JBQ AND JMZ.
SFC WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

[Gustywind]

Hey hey always 31°C today, things are heating up here Not so bad for early April! Looks like a moderate drought have appeared in Guadeloupe 1 month approximetaly. What's up in the others islands in terms of celsius degres? Cycloneye, what about PR?

Hi Gusty. PR so far this year has been thru normal temperatures ranging between 80F-85F as highs.But I know that Summer is comming soon and those temps will rise.

thanks for this info, i appreciate. Glad to see that all seems normal
Gustwind

[cycloneye]

And this guy is awesome during the hurricane season... less than 7 hours of sleep BUT always pertinent analysis!!! He's incredible, especially when a cane is looming near the Leewards islands and adjacents islands close to PR . He provides the best and that's an euphemisma. That's a trip monitoring the canes when you're a carib islander .

Well Gusty,I only do my best to help our friends in the islands and in Central America to get the updated information to help them prepare for any event like heavy rains,flooding,high swells,and of course,all about any threats to the Caribbean /Central America by a tropical system like a Storm or Hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all. As expected,showers have increased mainly for Eastern PR and the Virgin Islands.The pattern will mantain with plenty of moisture around for most of this week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
523 AM AST MON APR 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...STILL EXPECT MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS TO REMAIN
LOCATED WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES
MOVING ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE REMNANTS OF
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE COMBINATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS...DIURNAL
HEATING...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE LIFTING AND
SUFFICIENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME
LOCALIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. FOR
TODAY...THESE FACTORS WILL BE AUGMENTED BY THE SHEAR LINE JUST TO
THE NORTH AND A PASSING SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE. PLEASE REFER TO
SJUZFPPR FOR THE FORECAST DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHES OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING SHRA WILL
MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...AND MAY
AFFECT TNCM/TKPK... TIST/TISX AND POSSIBLY TJSJ AND TJBQ THIS
MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHWRS.
AFTERWARDS...SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL FORM OVER CENTRAL AND WEST
INTERIOR PR AND COULD AFFECT TJPS AND TJMZ BTWN 09/18 AND 09/22Z.
TJSJ SOUNDING AT 09/00Z INDICATED MAINLY ENE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS
BTWN SFC AND 10 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE TODAY. STILL EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN HOUR OR TWO OF 7 FOOT
SEAS ACROSS AMZ710 THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 85 74 / 70 50 30 40
STT 84 75 85 75 / 30 40 10 40

[Gustywind]

And this guy is awesome during the hurricane season... less than 7 hours of sleep BUT always pertinent analysis!!! He's incredible, especially when a cane is looming near the Leewards islands and adjacents islands close to PR . He provides the best and that's an euphemisma. That's a trip monitoring the canes when you're a carib islander .

Well Gusty,I only do my best to help our friends in the islands and in Central America to get the updated information to help them prepare for any event like heavy rains,flooding,high swells,and of course,all about any threats to the Caribbean /Central America by a tropical system like a Storm or Hurricane.

As usual Cycloneye you're our


SUPERMAN IN THE CYCLONEYE OF THE TROPICS

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. The next couple of days will be with moisture that will cause showers to form in the afternoons in interior PR,and in the nights and early mornings over the Northern and Eastern PR.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST MON APR 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE
WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT. A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE MAINLY
AFFECTING THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON MOISTURE BEGAN TO
INTERACT WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGAN
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD TOWARD THE NORTH MAINLY AFFECTING THE SAN JUAN
METROPOLITAN AREA. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED
FOR SEVERAL MUNICIPALITIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH SUNSET.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS SUBTROPICAL JET WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE LOCAL REGION. ALSO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO
ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR
LINE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHES OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING SHRA WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...AND MAY AFFECT TNCM/TKPK...TIST/TISX
AND POSSIBLY TJSJ AND TJBQ UNTIL 09/23Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHWRS. SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND WEST
INTERIOR PR AND COULD AFFECT TJBQ AND TJMZ UNTIL 09/22Z. TJSJ 09/12
INDICATED MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS BTWN SFC TO 15
KFT.

&&

.MARINE...A NNW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS
INCLUDING ALL LOCAL PASSAGES. LOCAL BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF
BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET. THIS SWELL WILL PEAK TONIGHT AND QUICKLY
SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 85 74 / 60 50 30 40
STT 84 75 85 75 / 50 40 10 40

[cycloneye]

The night update:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1036 PM AST MON APR 9 2012

.UPDATE...AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO QUICKLY DIMINISHED DURING THE EARLY EVENING...WHILE
SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS ALSO LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHEASTERN MUNICIPALITIES...AS SOIL REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED
ACROSS THOSE AREAS. FEW SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS AND MOVED ONSHORE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ADJACENT
ISLANDS AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. EXPECT THIS WEATHER
TREND TO CONTINUE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE
SHORT TERM INHERITED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND IN AGREEMENT
WITH PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION.

LOCAL AND REGIONAL BUOY DATA SUGGESTS THAT NORTHERLY SWELL ACTION
CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND PASSAGES BUT
HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE. PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS HOWEVER REMAIN IN
EFFECT OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
AT LEAST THROUGH 10/16Z. AFTER 10/16Z SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NW PR...LIKELY AFFECTING AREAS IN AND AROUND TJBQ
AND POSSIBLY THE VICINITY OF TJMZ UNTIL 10/23Z...THIS MAY CAUSE
BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJBQ. SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED
TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...INCREASING AFTER
10/12Z TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE EAST.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Another wet day is instore for PR as the trough lingers nearby.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST TUE APR 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS ALL COASTAL
WATERS...BUT LITTLE ACTIVITY OVER LAND AREAS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...AS
WELL AS THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AN ACTIVE
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...AND THE
NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO...AS MOISTURE AT LOW LEVEL OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DAYTIME HEATING TO
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AS THIS MOIST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REGION. THETA-E VALUES AT 700MB WILL REMAIN NEAR 330K WITH PW
VALUES FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A NOTICEABLE SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION
BY SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME SHWRS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT THE MAJORITY WILL REMAIN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. UNDER A EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW SHRA AND TSTMS
WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BTWN 10/16Z AND 10/21Z. THIS MAY CAUSE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AFTER 10/12Z TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE ESE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 85 74 / 30 40 40 20
STT 84 74 85 76 / 30 40 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST TUE APR 10 2012

.DISCUSSION...CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT FRONT IS
WELL NORTH OF PR WHILE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER (1.96 IN. ON 12Z
TJSJ RAOB) STREAMS NORTHWESTWARD. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WHILE UPPER JET HELPS CONVECTION. BUT EXPECT CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP THE HEATING AND RESULTANT CONVECTION FROM GETTING OUT OF
HAND. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSSED
ON NORTH HALF OF PR IN AFTERNONS AS THE AIR WARMS AND RISES UP
THE SLOPES. SHOWERS OTHERWISE WILL BE ISOLATED/SCATTERED.

&&

.AVIATION...SHWRS AND FEW ISOLD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME SHWRS WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. UNDER A
EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW SHRA AND TSTMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO AFFECT NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO UNTIL 10/22Z. THIS MAY CAUSE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJBQ. AFTER 10/22Z MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 86 / 40 40 20 20
STT 74 85 76 84 / 40 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

This is off-topic apart from weather as I found videos of people being blown by planes in the beach of St Maarten airport. Barbara and Patti,have you seen this in person?

Girl is blown by plane:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LV28AL0k ... r_embedded

Funny crazy hilarious at beach:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MyVUJPm ... r_embedded

[msbee]

Luis, the video of the girl has gone viral. it happened last week. The girl was a young French girl living on the island. She received a nasty cut on her head but will be OK.
The web cam I just posted the other day is right where this happens.
It's a major tourist attraction
I have never seen anyone actually blown away like that but I have seen cars over turned and I have been sandblasted myself a few times.

[cycloneye]

Luis, the video of the girl has gone viral. it happened last week. The girl was a young French girl living on the island. She received a nasty cut on her head but will be OK.
The web cam I just posted the other day is right where this happens.
It's a major tourist attraction
I have never seen anyone actually blown away like that but I have seen cars over turned and I have been sandblasted myself a few times.

Wow,I didn't know that the planes fly so low when they approach landing over there. I think police has to encourage people to not stand at the fence.

[msbee]

If you keep watching that web cam, you'll probably see some of those planes come in.
People should stand on the beach, not by that fence. There are signs all over warning people, but people don't listen

[cycloneye]

Here is that web cam of the beach close to St Maarten airport that is part of the very looooong first post of thread

http://www.sunsetsxm.com/index.php/home/webcams-update

[cycloneye]

Night update:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
955 PM AST TUE APR 10 2012

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WERE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MUNICIPALITIES. THERE WERE PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF
PUERTO RICO. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OBSERVED ISOLATED SHOWERS.

EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AFFECTING EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE
MORNING.

00Z RAOB INDICATED ONCE AGAIN THAT THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN
THE AREA WITH 1.97 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH IS ABOUT
0.20 INCHES HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE SAME TIME.
THERE IS ALSO MORE CAPE...K-INDEX AND OVERALL INSTABILITY THAN THE
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 18Z RUN. HOWEVER...EVEN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS.

GIVEN THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND THE CURRENT TRENDS INDICATED BY
THE COMPUTER MODELS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO ONCE AGAIN WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN MUNICIPALITIES.


&&

.AVIATION...FEW-ISOLD PASSING SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW ACROSS
THE FA MAINLY OVR THE REGIONAL WATERS N OF PR...AND BTW ERN PR AND
THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. SOME SHWRS WILL HOWEVER BRUSH THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...OVERALL VFR CONDS EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES DURG NXT 24 HRS. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ARE
FCST AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA.

[Gustywind]

Luis, the video of the girl has gone viral. it happened last week. The girl was a young French girl living on the island. She received a nasty cut on her head but will be OK.
The web cam I just posted the other day is right where this happens.
It's a major tourist attraction
I have never seen anyone actually blown away like that but I have seen cars over turned and I have been sandblasted myself a few times.

Wow,I didn't know that the planes fly so low when they approach landing over there. I think police has to encourage people to not stand at the fence.

Hey hey Cycloneye, landing at Juliana Airport is always impressive . Famous for its short runway, on the water, with a very low approach to less than 10-20 m above the beach! Moreover of SAINT-BARTHa special passeport is requiered for the pilot given the topography of the environmenT... because of the famous "Col de la Tourmente" (area of strong winds!). Ask Msbee about this famous thing. For sure if a pilot is able to land at Juliana or ST BARTH he 's really an expert!! We all remembered the crash at Saint-Barth the 24th March 2001.... 20 deaths !

[Macrocane]

They really put their health in risk

These are the temperatures registered on April 9 in Central America, thankfully it was not as warm as previous days.

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Honduras. Near normal in Belize, Guatemala, Nicaragua and Panama. Cooler than normal in El Salvador and Costa Rica.

Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 4.7°C (40.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.7°C (65.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.9°C (55.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.9°C (60.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.9°C (39.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 19.7°C (67.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.9°C (73.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.2°C (57.6°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Honduras. Near normal in Belize, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Panama. Cooler than normal in Guatemala and Costa Rica.

Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 32.0°C (89.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25.8°C (78.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 32.8°C (91.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.3°C (68.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.9°C (98.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 31°C (88°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 38°C (100°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.7°C (81.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 18.5°C (65.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 35.9°C (96.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.7°C (92.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.1°C (70.0°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Now it looks like a cold front,yes a cold front will move thru on Thursday.Are we in January or in April???

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
422 AM AST WED APR 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP POLAR TROF OVR ERN NOAM/WRN ATLC WILL MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE ATLC OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH CDFNT EXPECTED TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 17N MON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INVERTED SFC TROF HAS PUSHED WWD INTO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE WITH SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR XPCD TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
TODAY ON SOUTHEAST WINDS. AS A RESULT AM EXPECTING LESS CVRG TODAY
THAN PAST TWO DAYS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF PR AND
AROUND THE SJU METRO AREA WITH THE GREATEST CVRG ACROSS NCNTRL/NW
PR ON SOUTH SOUTHEAST STEERING WINDS. STEERING WINDS THEN VEER TO
THE SSW THU WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA AND
THEN TRACKING TOWARD THE SJU METRO AREA. SHEARLINE APPROACHES FRI
WITH TSRA ACTIVITY FOCUSING ERN HALF AND THEN TRACKING EWD OR
ESEWD. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/ISOLD FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A
CONCERN BOTH THU AND ESPECIALLY FRI DUE TO A SLOWER STORM MOTION
BOTH DAYS ALSO PRESENT A SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD IN THE FORM OF
BRIEF SPIN UPS/ISOLD BRIEF TORNADOES OR WATERSPOUTS. 0-6KM SHEAR
AND 0-3 KM SRH APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO MAY 16 2011
WHICH PRODUCED TWO SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST PR
WITH SIG DAMAGE IN THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. THERE WILL ALSO BE
STRONG DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 80-KT
JET STREAK AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER/SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

UNSEASONABLY STRONG CDFNT WILL THEN ENTER THE FCST AREA SAT
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. WHILE THERE WILL BE
SOME DECENT RAINS WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST PR FRONT WILL MOVE PRETTY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA REDUCING THE RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUS FLASH
FLOODING. MID-UPPER LEVEL DRYING THEN TAKES PLACE SAT EVENING WITH
PWAT FCST TO TANK THROUGH SUN BUT LOW CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MOST OF SUN MAINLY NORTHEAST PR.

THEN VERY DRY AIR WITH COOL...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL
PREVAIL MON THROUGH AT LEAST WED OF NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA MORE REMINISCENT OF JANUARY-FEBRUARY WEATHER
RATHER MID APRIL. HAVE LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES TO JUST ISOLD AS
PWAT DROPS TO 0.75 INCHES MON ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS WHICH IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE LOWEST EVER OBSERVED FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
ACCORDING TO A PWAT CLIMATOLOGY CHART FROM 1948-2011.


&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS A RESULT...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST AND TISX
THROUGH ABOUT 11/13Z. UNDER THE PREVAILING EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW SHRA AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF
PUERTO RICO BTW 11/17Z AND 11/22Z. THIS MAY CAUSE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT TJBQ AND TJSJ.

TSTMS LIKELY THU AT JSJ AND POSSIBLY FRI. UNSEASONABLY STRONG
CDFNT WILL THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT-SUN WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN MDT RAINS NORTH COAST AND USVI
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL ALSO START PICKING UP EARLY SAT FROM THE
NORTH THEN TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY WITH A
SLOW DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH SAT IN ENE WIND WAVES BUT SEAS
BUILD RAPIDLY SAT EVENING MIXED NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS AND WIND
WAVES. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SAT NIGHT INTO MON FOR SEAS
6-8 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 85 74 / 30 30 70 20
STT 78 76 78 76 / 30 30 20 20

[Gustywind]

Concerning the St Barth crash for those who are interrested, here is a recap and a brief analysis of this catastrophic air crash. Go on this site http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 0barth.htm

You will understand why landing at St Barth is a matter of experts when you have to put your wheels on the runway. Impressive pics will give you a better idea of the environment and how low the planes must have to approach... Remember, the runway requires a special qualification for the pilots related to the rapid descent of the aircraft after the storm pass ( called " Col de la Tourmente"). Often capricious winds or swirling the crossing of the pass make delicate flight. The length of usable runway of St Barth in this sense is only 515 m and landings are spectacular!


St Barth: the crash of the neck of the storm

Saturday, March 24, 2001, the DHC-6 "Twin Otter" of the "Air Caribbean" registered F-OGES company performs the scheduled flight from the island of Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy Island, distant 35 km. On board 17 passengers and 2 crew members.
While the aircraft turn short final before the pass of turmoil, many people see get in turn left at large tilt and then stick to the ground where he crashed near a House and catches fire. All the occupants perished and a person who was in the House.
The investigation of the BEA will conclude that a pilot error which would have triggered "the inverter beta" propellers to facilitate the reduction of the approach speed. But this manoeuvre is prohibited in flight by the manufacturer because it induces a strong instability of the aircraft.
Forensics made by Jean Belotti found more "incompatible with the flight safety" crew composition.
4 years of training have led to the indictment for manslaughter of chief instructor pilot and the Director General of Air Caribbean and the airline as Corporation.
The association of the families of victims (ADFV http://www.adfv.com/) was created in the aftermath of the accident and will be present at the trial which will proceed to Base land 29 and June 30, 2006, just after that of Colmar.
To better understand, read the press release of the association and the report of BEA (13 MB).