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USA Severe Weather - Watches - Warnings - Discussions - Etc

#1 Postby Dave » Thu Apr 05, 2012 3:56 pm

I'm bringing up this thread for everyone no matter what state you live in or are covering. We've got specific threads for several states that have been hit hard this spring but there are other places that are getting it too and we need a general thread to cover them as well. If there's an outbreak like March 2 or April 3 thats when we do need a special thread of that event but I'm seeing tornado warnings in SC right now as well as thunderstorm watches in many areas and no real place to post such so...this thread's open to everyone no matter where you live. Hopefully it doesn't get as much use but it's here if needed.
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#2 Postby Dave » Thu Apr 05, 2012 3:58 pm

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF MACON GEORGIA TO 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF PANAMA
CITY FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 143...WW 144...WW
145...WW 146...WW 147...

DISCUSSION...BOWING MCS FROM E-CNTRL INTO SRN AL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ESEWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING IN ADVANCE OF VORTICITY
MAXIMUM PIVOTING NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
DISRUPTION OF MOIST INFLOW BY CONVECTION OVER THE NERN GOM HAVE
TEMPERED DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM FROM MCS.
NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG AND 45-60 KT
OF DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF FORWARD-PROPAGATION OF
BOWING SYSTEM WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME
HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28030.


...MEAD
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#3 Postby Dave » Thu Apr 05, 2012 3:59 pm

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN ALABAMA
FAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MUSCLE SHOALS ALABAMA TO 20 MILES EAST OF KNOXVILLE TENNESSEE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 143...WW 144...WW
145...WW 146...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM PIVOTING NEWD
INTO THE TN VALLEY...AHEAD OF UPPER LOW NEAR THE MS RIVER. THOUGH
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL.
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#4 Postby Dave » Thu Apr 05, 2012 4:00 pm

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN GEORGIA
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF
ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLESTON SOUTH
CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 143...WW 144...WW 145...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT ADVANCING SWD/SWWD ACROSS THE REGION. RUC OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG OWING TO STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WHEN COUPLED WITH 30-40 KT OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SETUP WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL AND MARGINAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.
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#5 Postby Dave » Thu Apr 05, 2012 4:01 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0462
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT THU APR 05 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...FAR WRN NC...MIDDLE/ERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 147...

VALID 052006Z - 052100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 147
CONTINUES.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 19-20Z SHOWS ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NWRN
TN...AND ANOTHER OVER ERN TN. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EWD ACROSS
MIDDLE TN TOWARD THE ERN TN LOW...WHILE A COLD FRONT ARCS SEWD FROM
THE NWRN TN LOW INTO ERN AL. STORMS ARE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ALONG
THE WRN TN-ERN AL FRONTAL SEGMENT...WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ALONG THE MIDDLE/ERN TN STATIONARY
FRONT. THE SURFACE AIRMASS BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
REMAINS WARM AND MOIST...WHICH SUPPORTS MLCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1000
J/KG. AS SUCH...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..GARNER.. 04/05/2012


ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...
PAH...MEG...
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#6 Postby Dave » Thu Apr 05, 2012 4:03 pm

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT THU APR 05 2012

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...

...SC/WESTERN NC...
HAVE FOCUSED HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES /ESPECIALLY HAIL/ ACROSS
THE REGION TO THE EAST OF A SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SURFACE LOW AND
NEAR/SOUTH OF A SAGGING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...THE AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE WITH AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ASIDE FROM DAMAGING WINDS.
REFERENCE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 461 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...GA/FL...
FEW CHANGES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH BOUTS OF WIND DAMAGE REMAINING
POSSIBLE WITH AN ADVANCING MCS. A DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT COULD ALSO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS
WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA...EITHER VIA THE
ONGOING EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND/OR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

...TN VALLEY...
NEAR THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ADVANCING UPPER LOW...ISOLATED SEVERE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. A BRIEF
TORNADO MAY YET BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN WITHIN A VORTICITY
RICH ENVIRONMENT...BUT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/CLUSTERING SHOULD
LARGELY LIMIT SUCH POTENTIAL. LASTLY...AIRMASS MAY RECOVER TO A
DEGREE IN AREAS SUCH AS EASTERN MS/MUCH OF AL IN THE WAKE OF THE
EARLY DAY MCS...BUT ANY HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.

..GUYER.. 04/05/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT THU APR 05 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU WILL ACCELERATE SEWD TOWARD
THE LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THE EWD PROGRESSION
OF UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE FORMER SYSTEM
WILL BE ATTENDED BY A BROAD BELT OF 50-55 KT WINDS AT 500 MB WITH A
LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM PIVOTING NEWD ACROSS MS/AL/GA
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM/JET STREAK WHICH WILL
DIG SEWD THROUGH SRN PARTS OF AL/GA INTO FL TONIGHT.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER MIDDLE TN AS OF 15Z WILL
DEVELOP EWD TODAY BEFORE REFORMING OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD/SEWD FROM THE
LOWER MS VALLEY INTO NRN FL BY 06/12Z.

...LOWER MS VALLEY TO SERN ATLANTIC COAST...

AS OF MID-MORNING...RADAR DATA SHOWED AN INTENSIFYING...BOWING MCS
OVER W-CNTRL AL INTO SRN MS MOVING ESEWD AT 35 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS
LIKELY BEING FORCED BY LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM MENTIONED ABOVE...AND
ROOTED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 60 KT OF
DEEP WLY SHEAR /PER 12Z JAN SOUNDING/. DOWNSTREAM CLOUDS AND MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ROBUST
DESTABILIZATION TODAY...THOUGH AFTERNOON MLCAPE MAY STILL APPROACH
1000-1500 J/KG. BUT...GIVEN THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO
VORTICITY MAXIMUM...STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD...AND AN
EXPANDING/DEEPENING COLD POOL...EXPECT THE BOWING MCS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA/FL PNHDL TODAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

ADDITIONAL STORMS NOW FORMING INVOF OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NERN
AR/WRN TN WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD ACROSS NRN PARTS OF MS/AL AND TN
TODAY...COINCIDENT WITH THE MIDLEVEL COLD POOL. WHILE VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER THAN LOCATIONS TO THE S...STEEPER MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL YIELD A FEW SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL.

OTHER DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT SAGGING SWD THROUGH SC. HERE...THE COMBINATION
OF STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND
30-40 KT OF DEEP WSWLY SHEAR WILL FOSTER STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

BY TONIGHT...THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SEWD ACROSS SRN PARTS OF AL/GA INTO FL IN CONCERT WITH THE SECONDARY
VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AN INTENSE NOCTURNAL
MCS ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
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#7 Postby Dave » Thu Apr 05, 2012 4:05 pm

CHEROKEE SC-
458 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE

COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM EDT...
AT 455 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR THICKETTY...OR 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GAFFNEY...MOVING

EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
GAFFNEY.
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Re: USA Severe Weather - Watches - Warnings - Discussions - Etc

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 07, 2012 10:07 am

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
OKC113-147-071600-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0033.120407T1454Z-120407T1600Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
954 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA


* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

* AT 953 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HULAH TO 3 MILES NORTH OF
PEARSONIA TO 4 MILES EAST OF BURBANK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
BIGHEART...PEARSONIA...HULAH...COPAN...DEWEY...PAW HUSKA...OSAGE
HILLS STATE PARK...BARTLESVILLE...OKESA...WYNONA...BARNSDALL.. .
OCHELATA...AVANT AND RAMONA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9585 3698 9582 3661 9582 3637 9607
3665 9684 3693 9658 3701 9640
TIME...MOT...LOC 1454Z 295DEG 32KT 3688 9611 3684 9645
3667 9665

$$
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Re: USA Severe Weather - Watches - Warnings - Discussions - Etc

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 07, 2012 10:24 am

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1003 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

OKC113-147-071600-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-120407T1600Z/
OSAGE OK-WASHINGTON OK-
1003 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT
FOR WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OSAGE COUNTIES...

AT 1001 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM WAH SHA SHE STATE PARK TO PEARSONIA TO BURBANK...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...HULAH...
COPAN...PAWHUSKA...OSAGE HILLS STATE PARK...DEWEY...OKESA...
BARTLESVILLE...NELAGONEY...PERSHING...TALLANT...BARNSDALL AND
OCHELATA.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9585 3698 9582 3661 9582 3655 9618
3665 9684 3693 9658 3701 9640
TIME...MOT...LOC 1503Z 295DEG 32KT 3688 9614 3680 9638
3665 9664

$$
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Re: USA Severe Weather - Watches - Warnings - Discussions - Etc

#10 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Apr 07, 2012 5:04 pm

TORNADO WARNING
TXC431-072215-
/O.NEW.KSJT.TO.W.0007.120407T2142Z-120407T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
442 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL STERLING COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 438 PM CDT...A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND 5
MILE WEST OF HIGHWAY 163...MOVING INTO STERLING COUNTY. THE STORM IS
MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.


IN ADDITION TO DANGEROUS TORNADIC WINDS...OTHER HAZARDS INCLUDE...
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING.

*THE TORNADO WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF...
NORTH CENTRAL STERLING COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3209 10111 3209 10094 3198 10087 3195 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 348DEG 9KT 3209 10104

$$
DANIELS



TORNADO WARNING
TXC335-072215-
/O.NEW.KMAF.TO.W.0004.120407T2141Z-120407T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
441 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 438 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A TORNADO OVER EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MITCHELL COUNTY...OR
18 MILES NORTH OF STERLING CITY...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... SOUTHWESTERN
MITCHELL COUNTY NEAR STATE HIGHWAY 163 NEAR THE MITCHELL/STERLING
COUNTY BORDER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED... TAKE COVER IN A STURDY BUILDING NOW.
MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES ARE NOT SAFE.


A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3208 10084 3208 10117 3209 10118 3222 10106
3210 10082
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 010DEG 5KT 3209 10105

$$

Nice fat supercell on this one.
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Re: USA Severe Weather - Watches - Warnings - Discussions - Etc

#11 Postby apocalypt-flyer » Sun Apr 08, 2012 2:58 pm

Monday and Tuesday get a SLIGHT for N Texas, Oklahoma and STH Kansas, shifting westward on Tuesday. On the 4-8 days outlook both Thursday and Saturday are being billed SEVERE for a similar area as Monday. Could be a rather interesting week - especially as it progresses.
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Re: USA Severe Weather - Watches - Warnings - Discussions - Etc

#12 Postby apocalypt-flyer » Mon Apr 09, 2012 5:30 am

Today gets an upgrade to MDT for the far-E Texas panhandle and W Oklahoma.

Image

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT MON APR 09 2012

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE
AND WRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
TODAY. AT THE SFC...A DRYLINE WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED DURING THE
DAY IN FAR WRN OK NEAR THE OK-TX STATE-LINE. MODEL FORECASTS RAPIDLY
WEAKEN THE CAPPING INVERSION THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR VIGOROUS
SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR SRN KS...NW OK AND THE
FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SSEWD ACROSS SWRN
OK INTO NW TX THIS EVENING. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION.

TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST FROM SW KS EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS WRN OK WHERE THE NAM AND
NAMKF INCREASE MLCAPE INTO THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z IN WRN OK SHOW STRONG
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 700 MB WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 45 TO 55 KT
RANGE SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO
8.5 C/KM SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. THE MORE INTENSE
SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER. THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT SUPERCELLS WILL PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED LARGE
HAIL THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN
OK. THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALSO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES. AS STORMS EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND MOVE
SSEWD...THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LINEAR WITH
A WIND DAMAGE THREAT GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS SW OK AND NW TX.

...WEST TX...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY
WITH AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS WEST TX BY MIDDAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT VERY WEAK SUGGESTING CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SOUTH OF LUBBOCK AND NORTHWEST
OF DEL RIO SHOW MLCAPE OF 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 35
KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A
HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN INITIATE SHOULD
STRUGGLE DURING THE EVENING AS A CAPPING INVERSION BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED.

..BROYLES/MOSIER.. 04/09/2012


Might be worth a seperate thread depending on how things unfold.
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Re: USA Severe Weather - Watches - Warnings - Discussions - Etc

#13 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 11, 2012 2:27 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
221 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
NORTHEASTERN ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTH CENTRAL TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 219 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF PONCHATOULA...OR 11 MILES SOUTH
OF HAMMOND...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3030 9028 3020 9041 3014 9042 3012 9052
3017 9053 3020 9046 3026 9044 3028 9041
3030 9044 3031 9043 3034 9048 3029 9056
3039 9059 3046 9040
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 337DEG 17KT 3034 9045

$$
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#14 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Apr 11, 2012 3:13 pm

LOL

The following Mesoscale Discussions are currently in effect:
489 ... 490 ... 491 ... 490

Off the SPC site.
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Re: USA Severe Weather - Watches - Warnings - Discussions - Etc

#15 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 11, 2012 3:30 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
322 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN RUSK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 319 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MINDEN...OR
14 MILES SOUTH OF HENDERSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MOUNT
ENTERPRISE AND LAWSONVILLE.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF
THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3184 9469 3196 9481 3204 9465 3199 9459
3197 9459 3197 9457 3192 9451
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 326DEG 5KT 3197 9471

$$

06
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Re: USA Severe Weather - Watches - Warnings - Discussions - Etc

#16 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 11, 2012 4:07 pm

SVRMAF
TXC371-389-112200-
/O.NEW.KMAF.SV.W.0062.120411T2058Z-120411T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
358 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN PECOS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN REEVES COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 354 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 27
MILES SOUTHWEST OF COYANOSA...OR 27 MILES SOUTH OF PECOS...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 IN SOUTHERN
REEVES COUNTY.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
NORTHWESTERN PECOS COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN REEVES COUNTY...
NORTHERN PECOS COUNTY...


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS DETECTED WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. WHILE NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY... A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS
SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE... SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.



LAT...LON 3128 10311 3108 10290 3082 10302 3080 10334
3092 10355 3112 10359
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 266DEG 27KT 3103 10341
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Re: USA Severe Weather - Watches - Warnings - Discussions - Etc

#17 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 11, 2012 4:09 pm

WFUS54 KSHV 112101
TORSHV
TXC403-405-112145-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0034.120411T2101Z-120411T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
401 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN SABINE COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN SAN AUGUSTINE COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 353 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BLAND
LAKE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS IN
NORTHEAST SAN AUGUSTINE AND NORTHWEST SABINE COUNTIES


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.



LAT...LON 3151 9388 3141 9404 3157 9414 3160 9405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 317DEG 6KT 3155 9406
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Re: USA Severe Weather - Watches - Warnings - Discussions - Etc

#18 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 11, 2012 4:24 pm

TORNADO WARNING
TXC347-419-112145-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0035.120411T2106Z-120411T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
406 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN NACOGDOCHES COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL SHELBY COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 403 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR STOCKMAN...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ARCADIA AND JERICHO...


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3171 9421 3166 9439 3176 9448 3181 9440
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 318DEG 7KT 3174 9442

$$

06
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Re: USA Severe Weather - Watches - Warnings - Discussions - Etc

#19 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 11, 2012 5:03 pm

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
450 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN REEVES COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL CULBERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 446 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TWO AND HALF INCH SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED OVER EXTREME EAST CENTRAL CULBERSON COUNTY...OR 34 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MENTONE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
WESTERN REEVES COUNTY...
CENTRAL REEVES COUNTY...


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH... PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS... DESTRUCTIVE HAIL... AND DEADLY
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
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Re: USA Severe Weather - Watches - Warnings - Discussions - Etc

#20 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 11, 2012 6:13 pm

WFUS54 KMAF 112256
TORMAF
TXC371-112330-
/O.NEW.KMAF.TO.W.0008.120411T2256Z-120411T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
556 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 554 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 14 MILES WEST OF
BELDING...OR 22 MILES WEST OF FORT STOCKTON...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
BELDING...


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME... TAKE COVER NOW. ABANDON MOBILE
HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.



LAT...LON 3097 10296 3071 10296 3078 10331 3094 10331
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 270DEG 13KT 3087 10324
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