Plains Tornado Outbreak 4/14-15

[Bunkertor]

70/20/95. That should be close to a MDT area

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Low (20%)
Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Mod (30%)
Hail robability of 10 or more severe hail events High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Mod (60%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind robability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%)

[Texas Snowman]

I get the feeling the torcon will get higher

It did on 4/27/11. I can't remember the exact numbers a day or two earlier, but he raised them to the 9/10 range on the day of the event.

This event has big ticket tornado written all over it IMO. I'm with Ntxw, an EF-5 isn't out of the question. I'd be very concerned in the Oklahoma City area, which again, appears to be in the bull's eye of the moderate risk.

Do notice that the red of that moderate risk comes down to the Red River...about 40 miles north of Texas Motor Speedway where 200,000 or so will be at the NASCAR Sprint Cup race on Saturday night. Way too close for comfort. Hope TMS is reviewing their severe weather protocols right now.

[RL3AO]

Also Reed Timmer mentioned on FB that the OU Spring Football game is Saturday.

[Bunkertor]

I get the feeling the torcon will get higher

It did on 4/27/11. I can't remember the exact numbers a day or two earlier, but he raised them to the 9/10 range on the day of the event.

When i remember this correctly, the torcons hit ~15. James Spann mentioned he didn´t know that the scale went beyond the 10.

[Bunkertor]

SB Capes ~ 3 - 3,5 k approaching the OK Panhandle, where pretty good Helicity has already established. Helicity is increasing (NAM)

[brunota2003]

Watching Goodland, KS' radar...so far mostly quiet. A few severe storms in the very northern edge of the tornado watch...but not much else yet.

[Bunkertor]

I think 0z will be the time for the storms. If...

What Radar(page) are you using, Bruno ?

[WeatherGuesser]

North Platte, NE KLNX is showing a couple of SVRs

[Bunkertor]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0503
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT THU APR 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TX PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX INTO FAR WESTERN
OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 122306Z - 130100Z

AS A FOLLOW-UP TO MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 500...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
STILL BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TX/EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO FAR WESTERN OK
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. INCIPIENT SIGNS/INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE INITIATION COULD PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE.

AFTER A BOUT OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING OR AT LEAST NEBULOUS FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALOFT...WATER VAPOR/VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS /EG. REFERENCE
CIRRUS ACROSS NM INTO FAR WEST TX AND TECUMCARI NM WIND PROFILER/
IMPLY THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INFLUENCE THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THE DRYLINE HAS RECENTLY
MIXED A BIT EASTWARD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH DEDUCED SIGNS OF
INCREASING MASS CONVERGENCE PER SURFACE OBS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
DRYLINE AND A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ARCING DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY/WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST
OK/WESTERN PART OF NORTH TX. ACCORDINGLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS
DO REFLECT A DEGREE OF DEEPENING/THICKENING OF THE CU FIELD NEAR THE
CDS AND TX/OK BORDER VICINITY.

WHILE THE LIKELIHOOD/EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE IMITATION IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR APPEARS CONDITIONALLY MOST
FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS NOTION IS SUPPORTED BY GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE 18Z
NAM/GFS...WITH EACH INDICATIVE OF CONVECTION PRECIPITATION BETWEEN
00Z-03Z. SHOULD SUCH DEVELOPMENT OCCUR...SUPERCELLS WOULD BE
PROBABLE WITHIN AN UNSTABLE /2000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ AND AMPLE
VERTICAL SHEAR /45 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR/ ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LARGE HAIL/TORNADO THREAT.

[cycloneye]

This post is to let know the members that there is breaking news.See details at Off-Topic forum.

Off Topic Forum

[cycloneye]

US53 KGLD 122330
TORGLD
NEC087-130015-
/O.NEW.KGLD.TO.W.0003.120412T2330Z-120413T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
630 PM CDT THU APR 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HITCHCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 627 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR STRATTON NE...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TRENTON AND PALISADE.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 34 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 47 AND 72.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4033 10079 4001 10110 4011 10129 4036 10111
4035 10085
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 213DEG 22KT 4014 10113
HAIL 1.75IN
$$

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
555 PM MDT THU APR 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN PERKINS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 630 PM MDT

* AT 550 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GRANT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
MADRID AROUND 605 PM MDT.
ELSIE AROUND 615 PM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4071 10179 4100 10161 4100 10139 4100 10126
4070 10128
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 216DEG 28KT 4078 10161

$$

STOPPKOTTE

[brunota2003]

I think 0z will be the time for the storms. If...

What Radar(page) are you using, Bruno ?

Sorry, passed out for a bit I'm using Grlevel2 Analyst

[brunota2003]

Watch that cell over Trenton, NE...looks like it might try to produce a tornado here very soon...currently just severe warned, but the inflow notch is becoming more and more well defined.

EDIT: To change KS to NE, since Trenton is in NE.

[brunota2003]

And here you go:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
751 PM CDT THU APR 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HITCHCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 745 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A BRIEF TORNADO
3 MILES NORTHWEST OF TRENTON. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO HEN EGG SIZE.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN HITCHCOCK COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 34 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 61 AND 74.

[brunota2003]

That storm is now moving over a rain cooled surface from the storm in front of it and appears to be weakening, so that may have killed the tornado.

[Bunkertor]

I think 0z will be the time for the storms. If...

What Radar(page) are you using, Bruno ?

Sorry, passed out for a bit I'm using Grlevel2 Analyst

Ah, totally forgot the programm. Thx.

[brunota2003]

Watch the cell about 10 miles NNW of Goodland, KS. It formed on an outflow boundary and is still interacting with the boundary, so I see tornado possibilities there.

Also, a cell associated with the squall line looks like it may be trying to rotate...to the WSW of Trenton, NE.

[brunota2003]

The storm near Goodland:

[wx247]

Pretty quiet this evening overall on the high plains, but things are going to get much more active before the weekend is over unfortunately.