Plains Tornado Outbreak 4/14-15

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Re: Plains Tornado Outbreak on 4/12-16 (High Risk for Sat)

#61 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 13, 2012 9:44 am

cycloneye wrote:NOAA Press Conference at 1 PM CDT about High Risk for Saturday

Having a press conference one day before a big severe weather event is another first or it has occured before?

Severe weather is expected in the central U.S. through this coming weekend, and tornadoes and large hail could be especially threatening on Saturday. This severe weather is expected in a region where the National Weather Service has already equipped many of its Doppler radars with Dual Polarization technology, which can better detect when and where tornadoes are on the ground. Parts of this region are also testing stronger “call-to-action” wording in tornado warnings to further help protect lives and create a more weather-ready nation.

WHAT:
Media briefing on severe weather expected in the central U.S., and steps the National Weather Service has taken since last year’s destructive tornado season.

WHEN:
Friday, April 13; 1 p.m. CT / 2 p.m. ET

WHO:
Jack Hayes, Ph.D., director, NOAA’s National Weather Service
Russ Schneider, Ph.D., director, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center

NOAA Press Conference Advisory


I believe it is a first.

I have an exam tomorrow morning...it will be tough thinking about everyone with this.
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#62 Postby wx247 » Fri Apr 13, 2012 10:06 am

Wow, I have never seen a press conference advisory before an initial event has even taken place. Do you think that this is in response to the events of last year (Mississippi, Alabama, Joplin, etc)?

Btw, the latest model runs look absolutely nasty for the region tomorrow. We were contemplating storm chasing, but this may be out of our league.
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Re:

#63 Postby NCtraveler » Fri Apr 13, 2012 10:26 am

wx247 wrote:Wow, I have never seen a press conference advisory before an initial event has even taken place. Do you think that this is in response to the events of last year (Mississippi, Alabama, Joplin, etc)?

Btw, the latest model runs look absolutely nasty for the region tomorrow. We were contemplating storm chasing, but this may be out of our league.


Probably. The NWS is trying to get the word out before the event so a bunch of people don't end up oblivious... again.

If you are contemplating storm chasing, I wouldn't do it unless you've been chasing for years and you can handle large crowds. Everybody and their cousin is probably going to be chasing in OK & KS tomorrow.
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#64 Postby EF-5bigj » Fri Apr 13, 2012 10:30 am

High Risk well thats not something to wake up to in the morning i'll be warning my friends in KS. As violent tornadoes seem likely and are more then one of these violent one's likely?
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Re:

#65 Postby NCtraveler » Fri Apr 13, 2012 10:36 am

EF-5bigj wrote:High Risk well thats not something to wake up to in the morning i'll be warning my friends in KS. As violent tornadoes seem likely and are more then one of these violent one's likely?


Definitely. We could easily see over 50 tornadoes tomorrow, with at least a fraction of those violent. Everybody in the central plains needs to look out tomorrow.
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#66 Postby Tireman4 » Fri Apr 13, 2012 10:56 am

I wonder if they will issue a PDS......(or have they?)
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Re:

#67 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 13, 2012 11:02 am

Tireman4 wrote:I wonder if they will issue a PDS......(or have they?)


Those are on watches, and they surely will tomorrow.
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#68 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 13, 2012 11:03 am

Next update is at 1630Z for Day 1 (Moderate tonight?) and 1730Z for Day 2 tomorrow (cannot upgrade any more, but could expand the High Risk area)
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Re: Plains Tornado Outbreak on 4/12-16 (High Risk for Sat)

#69 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 13, 2012 11:20 am

The trigger for Saturday's event.

Image
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#70 Postby EF-5bigj » Fri Apr 13, 2012 11:39 am

That is a lot of energy going into the plains :eek:
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Re: Plains Tornado Outbreak on 4/12-16 (High Risk for Sat)

#71 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 13, 2012 11:56 am

Dr Greg Forbes updates TOR-CON Indices

Friday April 13
OK southwest - 5
OK northeast - 4
KS southeast - 4
TX northwest near Childress and Wichita Falls - 4

Saturday April 14
IA northwest - 4
IA southwest - 4 to 5
IA rest - 3 to 4
IL northwest - 3
KS central - 8
MN southwest - 4
MN southeast - 3
MO north - 4
NE east - 7
OK southwest, central - 7
SD southeast - 4
TX east panhandle - 5
WI southwest -3
Other areas - less than 2

Sunday April 15
AR northwest - 4
IA east - 6
IL northwest - 4
KS southeast - 4
MN southeast -6
MN south - 4
MO - 4
OK southeast - 4
TX northeast - 4

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather- ... 2011-07-11
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#72 Postby EF-5bigj » Fri Apr 13, 2012 11:58 am

Looks like it will end up being a PDS :(
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Re:

#73 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 13, 2012 12:07 pm

EF-5bigj wrote:Looks like it will end up being a PDS :(


Multiple PDS's likely, some with huge numbers like 95/95.
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Re: Plains Tornado Outbreak on 4/12-16 (High Risk for Sat)

#74 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 13, 2012 12:09 pm

Update for later today/tonight - strong tornadoes POSSIBLE with any cell that does get going, but the cap might hold up well with the main energy not there yet:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN KS/MUCH OF OK AND
INTO PORTIONS OF NRN AND NWRN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LEAD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE MID MO VALLEY ATTM WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING NNEWD WITH TIME...WHILE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
DIGS SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN CA AND REACHES THE LOWER CO VALLEY
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN BETWEEN...A BROAD ZONE OF FAST/FLAT
SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SRN CA AND SHIFT
INTO/ACROSS THE DESERT SW AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS IS
PROGGED TO BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED WITH TIME...AS A DEVELOPING LEE
CYCLONE IN THE ERN CO VICINITY BECOMES THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE OVER
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

...NRN AND WRN OK/KS AND VICINITY...
A SLOWLY WARMING/MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
TX/OK VICINITY...AHEAD OF A DRYLINE MIXING SLOWLY EWD INTO WRN OK
ATTM. HOWEVER...DRYLINE ADVANCE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN LIMITED...WITH
SOME RETREAT EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

WITH ONLY WEAK CAPPING INDICATED BY MORNING RAOBS WITHIN AN
OTHERWISE VERY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...THE FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING -- AS ANY
SURFACE-BASED STORM WHICH DOES DEVELOP WOULD BE LIKELY TO RAPIDLY
ORGANIZE INTO A LARGE SUPERCELL STORM. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT
THE SUBTLE AREA OF WEAK MID-LEVEL ASCENT EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY NOW
MOVING ENEWD ACROSS SERN CO AND NERN/CENTRAL NM COULD SUPPORT
EARLIER -- AND POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD -- INITIATION THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO REMAINS THAT
DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THIS AFTERNOON -- INVOF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE...WITHIN A ZONE FROM NWRN TX ACROSS THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE AND INTO WRN OK.

AS MENTIONED...STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL RAPIDLY ORGANIZE...AS 1500
TO 2000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE COMBINED WITH A PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE
WIND PROFILE /VEERING AND INCREASING RAPIDLY WITH HEIGHT FROM SSELY
AT LOW LEVELS TO WSWLY AT 50 KT AT MID LEVELS/ WILL FAVOR
LARGE/LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS. AGAIN -- WITH GENERALLY WEAK/SUBTLE
FORCING FOR ASCENT...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED INITIALLY
-- AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT RISK CATEGORICAL FORECAST
ATTM. HOWEVER...ANY STORM WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY
STRONG/LONG-LIVED TORNADOES.


DURING THE EVENING...AS THE INITIAL STORMS SHIFT NEWD TOWARD NRN
OK/SRN KS...AN EXPANSION IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AS SLY
LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES TO NEAR 50 KT. WHILE AN EVENTUAL LARGE
CLUSTER OF STORMS -- ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- SHOULD EVOLVE AND SHIFT ENEWD ACROSS KS
AND INTO MO WITH TIME...A PERIOD OF HEIGHTENED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
EXIST FOR A FEW HOURS INVOF SUNSET AND INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE
LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE BECOMES PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE.


...SRN CA...
A BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING EWD/SEWD ACROSS SRN CA...INVOF
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND JUST AHEAD OF THE STRONG SHORT-WAVE
SYSTEM DIGGING SEWD JUST OFF THE CA COAST. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD BUT VERY MODEST INSTABILITY...STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS OR EVEN A
BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE
CELL/BAND -- PRIMARILY INVOF THE COAST.

FARTHER N INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY...COLD AIR ALOFT/STEEP LAPSE RATES
NEARER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD -- WITH LIMITED
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING -- SUPPORT INCREASING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES/COLD MID
LEVELS...MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A STRONGER CELL OR TWO.

..GOSS/COHEN.. 04/13/2012

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1707Z (1:07PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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Re: Plains Tornado Outbreak on 4/12-16 (High Risk for Sat)

#75 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 13, 2012 12:19 pm

With all focus on tomorrow, it is easy to forget a threat exists today too.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX THROUGH SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 131710Z - 131915Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK.
INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES INCREASING DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM ERN KS SWWD THROUGH WRN OK AND
NWRN TX. MOIST AXIS WITH MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE IN PLACE IN
WARM SECTOR BENEATH 7-7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROMOTING AN
AXIS OF 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE
FURTHER AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. VISIBLE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN
VICINITY OF THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK AS
WELL AS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST INTO S-CNTRL OK WITHIN ZONE OF WEAK
WARM ADVECTION. MORNING RAOB DATA FROM FWD AND OKC INDICATED A
MODEST INVERSION AROUND 750 MB...AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW
ONLY A WEAK CAP REMAINING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY
SOON DEVELOP IN THIS REGION. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT
SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN VEERING AND WEAKENING
AS PRIMARY LLJ SHIFTS THROUGH THE MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD THROUGH ERN SD. THIS MAY DELAY A MORE
ROBUST TORNADO THREAT UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THE LLJ WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE SRN PLAINS.

..DIAL.. 04/13/2012


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 34379987 35809815 34399681 33789731 33359926 33500056
34379987
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#76 Postby EF-5bigj » Fri Apr 13, 2012 12:19 pm

Well this is really stacking up to be a major outbreak I warned my friends via facebook. However if we get some really really violent tornadoes I don't know what they'll do really over 200 mph winds will destroy houses and ive heard about people getting sucked out of basements.
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#77 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Apr 13, 2012 12:20 pm

Just to give you guys an idea of the energy associated with this system, there were several severe thunderstorm warnings yesterday in California, including one for the San Bruno/San Francisco area. The one that hit SF had good rotation on radar before it came ashore, and they were lucky a waterspout didn't move ashore, or that it didn't strengthen and try to drop a tornado on them.
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Re:

#78 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 13, 2012 12:23 pm

EF-5bigj wrote:Well this is really stacking up to be a major outbreak I warned my friends via facebook. However if we get some really really violent tornadoes I don't know what they'll do really over 200 mph winds will destroy houses and ive heard about people getting sucked out of basements.


Simple ways to improve their chances:

* Hide somewhere with many, many walls around. Even places like a steel trunk.

* When in the safe place, have a helmet on. Most fatalities are due to head trauma.

* Sleep in the safe place. There will likely be many tornadoes tomorrow night as well (some tonight), and the NOAA Weather Radio will also be a potential lifesaver.

* Ignore tornado sirens, focus on the radar and word of mouth.
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Re: Plains Tornado Outbreak on 4/12-16 (High Risk for Sat)

#79 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 13, 2012 12:23 pm

LATEST MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX THROUGH SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 131710Z - 131915Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK.
INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES INCREASING DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM ERN KS SWWD THROUGH WRN OK AND
NWRN TX. MOIST AXIS WITH MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE IN PLACE IN
WARM SECTOR BENEATH 7-7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROMOTING AN
AXIS OF 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE
FURTHER AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. VISIBLE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN
VICINITY OF THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK AS
WELL AS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST INTO S-CNTRL OK WITHIN ZONE OF WEAK
WARM ADVECTION. MORNING RAOB DATA FROM FWD AND OKC INDICATED A
MODEST INVERSION AROUND 750 MB...AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW
ONLY A WEAK CAP REMAINING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY
SOON DEVELOP IN THIS REGION. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT
SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN VEERING AND WEAKENING
AS PRIMARY LLJ SHIFTS THROUGH THE MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD THROUGH ERN SD. THIS MAY DELAY A MORE
ROBUST TORNADO THREAT UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THE LLJ WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
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#80 Postby TwisterFanatic » Fri Apr 13, 2012 12:26 pm

Agreed about people forgetting about today, but a 10% hatched area for Tornadoes out there today. Any storm that fires will become severe very, very fast.

Tomorrow continues to look flat out scary.
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