Plains Tornado Outbreak 4/14-15

[Dave]

6:21 PM OUN continues Tornado Warning for Pottawatomie [OK] till 5:30 PM CDT ...AT 519 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADIC STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DALE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

[CrazyC83]

WWUS54 KOUN 132220
SVSOUN
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
520 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

OKC125-132230-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120413T2230Z/
POTTAWATOMIE OK-
520 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR
POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY...

AT 519 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADIC STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DALE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHAWNEE...TECUMSEH...PINK...EARLSBORO...JOHNSON...DALE AND BETHEL
ACRES.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 175 AND 194.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GET IN...GET DOWN AND COVER UP. TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER
OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3523 9678 3525 9714 3538 9714 3546 9677
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 231DEG 20KT 3539 9699

$$

30

[brunota2003]

NWS Norman ‏ @NWSNorman
brief tornado just south of I-40 near Dale. #okwx

[Cyclenall]

The parameters look most similar to April 27, 2011 except in the Plains where such an extreme outbreak (Super Outbreak-like) has never happened that we know of.

I'm thinking the same. I'm seeing more and more comparisons to April 27, 2011 which is shocking. However, there are more than a few signs that it could reach these levels. A Canadian regional model run earlier today showed a ridiculous amount of supercell initiation for tomorrow starting at 18z!!!!!!!! It continued for a long time after that I don't know if the short term NAM precip. shows something similar right now but when you get down to very specifics it gets tricky.

How does this setup compare to April 27, 2011?

Not sure what the tone of the post is, but when you get extraordinary "factors" you can get extraordinary results. The more in-depth aspects I don't have a high level of knowledge of for tornadoes and severe weather. Despite this, when I saw that IR image cycloneye posted earlier in the thread of the system off the west coast, it looked wickedly fast and yet I don't pay attention to that factor usually.

This is in Norman.

*cut*

Holy! Already damage . I was tracking that one and didn't even think it had a TOR on the ground!! Lots of discrete activity popping up a bit more early then I thought it would be but where are all the tornado warnings? Maybe its just starting to enter into the more favorable airmass region.

Something I just thought of, has a tornado (stronger type) ever hit a radar station directly and taken it offline? I can't think of any but it will happen this season .

[Dave]

Short Term Forecast (NOW) 528 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012 - Norman OK

.NOW...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AT 530 PM ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AT 530 PM...THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE SCATTERED
ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR HOLLIS TO HOBART TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO
SHAWNEE AND CHANDLER. VERY LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS IS
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...INCREASING LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY WITH A RISK OF VERY
LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 70 TO 80 MPH.

$$

[Dave]

AREA WEATHER UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
531 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

...WARNING DECISION UPDATE...

THE WARNING DECISION UPDATE CONCERNS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

SUPERCELLS NORTH OF ALTUS ARE MOVING INTO REGION OF INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY IN
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA NEXT FEW HOURS.

[Bunkertor]

A Canadian regional model run earlier today showed a ridiculous amount of supercell initiation for tomorrow starting at 18z!!!!!!!! It continued for a long time after that

Can you provide a link to this ?

[brunota2003]

Visible image of Oklahoma:

[brunota2003]

Cell south of Hobart (SW of Norman, down near Lawton) showing a hook...wouldn't be surprised if a tornado warning is issued for it in the next 10 to 15 minutes or so. Though it might get overrun by the cell behind it.

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0512
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0547 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 160...

VALID 132247Z - 140015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 160 CONTINUES.

TORNADO WATCH 160 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z. LARGE HAIL ASIDE...TORNADO
POTENTIAL MAY FURTHER INCREASE THROUGH SUNSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL OK. WW 160 ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
TX/EASTERN TX PANHANDLE ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH
THIS EVENING.

SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPLIT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OK INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL OK...WITH LONGER-LIVED/SEVERE
PRODUCING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVING RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS. WITHIN
A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /1500-2500 J PER KG
MLCAPE/...VERY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/TORNADOES WITHIN THIS
SAME CORRIDOR...WITH A NORTHWARD EXPANSION INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS
OF WESTERN/NORTHERN OK AND PERHAPS ADJACENT NORTHWEST TX AS A LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DRYLINE AND ASSOCIATED
MOIST SECTOR RETREATS. REGARDING THE TORNADO THREAT...THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
ESPECIALLY TOWARD/AFTER SUNSET. THIS LLJ INCREASE...COUPLED WITH A
MORE DISCRETE INITIATION/LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLULAR MODE AND MODIFYING
OUTFLOW-AIDED TRIPLE POINT...MAY LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED TORNADO THREAT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL OK. THIS INCLUDES THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO.

..GUYER.. 04/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE http://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA...

[CrazyC83]

One word of advice - if you aren't experienced and think you want to chase this, DON'T. Since it is a Saturday, more people would be off work and probably thinking about chasing.

These storms will be moving at very high speeds, and could be extremely intense. If you are caught at a dead end with a tornado approaching, there is a good chance you will lose your life.

[wx247]

Looks like the cell in Montgomery county Kansas is trying to get wrapped up.

[brunota2003]

North of Altus (the two cells near Hobart), the southern of the two has a TVS.

[MGC]

Yes CrazyC83 offers good advise. When I chased in Oklahoma back in 2003 I had to back off from a cell that turned to the east and was headed right for me. I backed off about a mile just as the tornado dropped out the storm......MGC

[MGC]

That cell north of Altus looks about ready to pop.....MGC

[Dave]

(7:12 PM) OUN issues Tornado Warning for Jackson, Kiowa [OK] till 6:45 PM CDT ...* AT 611 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BLAIR...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

[CrazyC83]

Why only a blue box when tornadic conditions are possible in only 2-4 hours?

SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 162
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
605 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 605 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF AMARILLO TEXAS TO 50 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
PLAINVIEW TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 160...WW 161...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG WARM FRONT/DRYLINE RETREATING
NWWD ACROSS REGION ARE DOING SO IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. AS
SUCH...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELL EVOLUTION WITH AN
ATTENDANT RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND NEAR GROUND SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
ERN PNHDL LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...SIGNALING A HEIGHTENED
TORNADO RISK. THUS...CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
UPGRADE TO A TORNADO WATCH IN THE 14/00-03Z TIME FRAME.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25025.


...MEAD

[Dave]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK613 PM
CDT FRI APR 13 2012

OKZ017-018-024-132345-
BLAINE OK-KINGFISHER OK-CANADIAN OK-
613 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLAINE...KINGFISHER AND
NORTHWESTERN CANADIAN COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 609 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED JUST
NORTHWEST OF EL RENO AND ALSO JUST NORTH OF HYDRO...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KINGFISHER...GEARY...OKARCHE...GREENFIELD AND OMEGA.

[brunota2003]

Maybe they don't feel confident enough yet that there will be a big enough threat of tornadoes to issue a TOR watch?

Storm north of Altus finally has a TOR warning...and does it look mean!

[Dave]

Blair storm...