Plains Tornado Outbreak 4/14-15

[Dave]

This is a quick view of the initial counties (WOU) product for WW 0165
Full watch page will be available shortly. Please check back soon.


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WOUS64 KWNS 141541
WOU5

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 165
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

TORNADO WATCH 165 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

KSC007-009-025-027-029-033-041-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-069-
077-081-083-089-095-097-101-105-113-119-123-135-137-141-143-145-
147-151-155-157-159-163-165-167-169-171-175-179-183-185-195-201-
142300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0165.120414T1545Z-120414T2300Z/

KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARBER BARTON CLARK
CLAY CLOUD COMANCHE
DICKINSON EDWARDS ELLIS
ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD
GOVE GRAHAM GRAY
HARPER HASKELL HODGEMAN
JEWELL KINGMAN KIOWA
LANE LINCOLN MCPHERSON
MEADE MITCHELL NESS
NORTON OSBORNE OTTAWA
PAWNEE PHILLIPS PRATT
RENO REPUBLIC RICE
ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL
SALINE SCOTT SEWARD
SHERIDAN SMITH STAFFORD
TREGO WASHINGTON


OKC003-045-047-053-059-093-151-153-142300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0165.120414T1545Z-120414T2300Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA ELLIS GARFIELD
GRANT HARPER MAJOR
WOODS WOODWARD


ATTN...WFO...DDC...OUN...TOP...GID...GLD...ICT...

[CrazyC83]

NWS Norman tweeted a PDS Tornado Watch is coming out shortly, earlier than I thought. Gonna be a VERY long day...could this be like April 27, 2011?

[CrazyC83]

My guess is 90/70 for the tornado probs on that one. The big ones further north could be 95/95.

[CrazyC83]

First of MANY PDS Tornado Watches today. Probs 80/70.

SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 165
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1045 AM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
GAGE OKLAHOMA TO 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF CONCORDIA KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS RAPIDLY INCREASING OVER
SOUTHWEST KS AND SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST OK IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. INITIAL STORMS MAY BE ELEVATED.
HOWEVER...SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS LOW CLOUDS BURN
OFF...AIDING IN STORMS BECOMING SURFACE-BASED. VERY FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STRONG TORNADOES
WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART

[WeatherGuesser]

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (80%)


Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes High (70%)


Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (90%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots High (80%)


Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches High (80%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%)

[Dave]

Tornado Watch #165

[Dave]

TSA Multimedia Briefing issued (click on the Podcast mp4 link and it'll come up)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/?n=camtasiaBriefing

[CrazyC83]

The numbers on the watch to the north will likely be even higher than that...

[CrazyC83]

There will likely be PDS Tornado Watches later as well north, south and east of there - at least two more, plus replacement watches.

[CrazyC83]

Big question mark for 1630Z: do they pull the biggest gun out of the arsenal and put up the 60% tornado area? In other words, basically the Finger of God prediction...

[Dave]

1555 UTC Visible

[CrazyC83]

The warm front is heating up too with cells. This could be a looooooong day...

[CrazyC83]

I have NEVER seen it that high at 11 am!

[Dave]

Current Thunderstorm Warnings - Centered on NWS Hastings NE KUEX

[Bunkertor]

The warm front is heating up too with cells. This could be a looooooong day...

You might be right. I did not expect such a high watch this early in the day.

[Dave]

All thunderstorm warnings are holding at winds less than 50 & hail 1.0 to 1.75" in diameter. Anything at or above 70 mph I can post if wanted but so far nothing to that extent..its early.

Note: will mainly stay with tornado warnings though.

[CrazyC83]

For comparison, I wonder what the STP values were at 11 am on April 27, 2011? I know they were off the charts by late afternoon (as high as 18)

[Dean4Storms]

RUC EHI forecast for late afternoon thru the freakin roof!!


http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[CrazyC83]

1630Z: Minor changes, adjusted for dryline position

[Dean4Storms]

If I lived in OK or KS I think I would stay very close to a storm shelter today, period!