Plains Tornado Outbreak 4/14-15
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cycloneye
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Re: Plains Tornado Outbreak: High Risk on 4/14-15 at OK,KS,NEB
Those who may want to see the stormchasers in action,follow them here
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Dave
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
313 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HODGEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NESS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHERN RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
* UNTIL 345 PM CDT
* AT 310 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 2 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BURDETT. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROZEL...NEKOMA...ASH VALLEY AND RUSH CENTER.
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
313 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HODGEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NESS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHERN RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
* UNTIL 345 PM CDT
* AT 310 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 2 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BURDETT. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROZEL...NEKOMA...ASH VALLEY AND RUSH CENTER.
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brunota2003
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cycloneye
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Re: Plains Tornado Outbreak: High Risk on 4/14-15 at OK,KS,NEB
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Dave
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KIOWA KS-EDWARDS KS-
316 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL EDWARDS AND NORTH
CENTRAL KIOWA COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...
AT 310 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY
STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 8 MILES NORTHWEST
OF GREENSBURG. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CENTERVIEW...
FELLSBURG...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL EDWARDS AND NORTHERN KIOWA COUNTIES.
316 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL EDWARDS AND NORTH
CENTRAL KIOWA COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...
AT 310 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY
STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 8 MILES NORTHWEST
OF GREENSBURG. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CENTERVIEW...
FELLSBURG...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL EDWARDS AND NORTHERN KIOWA COUNTIES.
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WeatherGuesser
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:The key question - did Burdett take a direct hit?
Population there is 250.
Looks to me like it broke up before it got there. Can't say for sure though.
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Dave
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
322 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
EAST CENTRAL FORD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
* UNTIL 345 PM CDT
* AT 320 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 4 MILES
WEST OF MULLINVILLE. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH. GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MULLINVILLE AND GREENSBURG.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA. GO TO A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR!
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
322 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
EAST CENTRAL FORD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
* UNTIL 345 PM CDT
* AT 320 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 4 MILES
WEST OF MULLINVILLE. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH. GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MULLINVILLE AND GREENSBURG.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA. GO TO A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR!
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Dave
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- Location: Milan Indiana
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
326 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN EDWARDS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
WEST CENTRAL STAFFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
* UNTIL 415 PM CDT
* AT 324 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR
CENTERVIEW. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FELLSBURG...LEWIS...BELPRE...ZOOK...MACKSVILLE AND DILLWYN.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA. GO TO A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR!
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
326 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN EDWARDS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
WEST CENTRAL STAFFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
* UNTIL 415 PM CDT
* AT 324 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR
CENTERVIEW. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FELLSBURG...LEWIS...BELPRE...ZOOK...MACKSVILLE AND DILLWYN.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA. GO TO A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR!
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
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- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
326 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL BARBER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
* UNTIL 400 PM CDT
* AT 324 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BUTTERMILK. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 50 MPH. LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE IS ALSO
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUTTERMILK...LAKE COLDWATER AND COLDWATER.
THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE PREVIOUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT.
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
326 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL BARBER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
* UNTIL 400 PM CDT
* AT 324 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BUTTERMILK. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 50 MPH. LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE IS ALSO
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUTTERMILK...LAKE COLDWATER AND COLDWATER.
THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE PREVIOUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT.
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WeatherGuesser
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0525
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/WRN OK...ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN NORTH TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 141823Z - 142030Z
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES MAY INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH IS POSSIBLE.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BECOME OF INCREASING CONCERN INTO
MID-AFTERNOON OWING TO A FEW APPARENT MESOSCALE PROCESSES:
1. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG A N-S-ORIENTED DRYLINE FROM THE ERN TX/OK
PANHANDLES ACROSS W TX THAT WILL SLOWLY MIX EWD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...AND MAY AID IN STORM INITIATION. SFC WINDS HAVE
SLIGHTLY VEERED WEST OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE LAST
HOUR...SUGGESTING THAT THE DRYLINE MAY BE MODESTLY SHARPENING WITH
AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL ASCENT. THE CUMULUS FIELD JUST
EAST OF THE DRYLINE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY AGITATED PER
RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGES...WHICH COULD EVOLVE INTO DEEPENING
CONVECTION. STRONG HEATING AND DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER CIRCULATIONS JUST
WEST OF THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO AID IN INITIATION.
2. A SECONDARY MOISTURE GRADIENT IS NOTED 30-50 MILES WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...WITH ATTENDANT ASCENT AUGMENTED BY AN
EWD-MIGRATING...SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL TX PANHANDLE WHERE THE MID-LEVEL ASCENT OVERLAYS THE SECONDARY
MOISTURE GRADIENT...AND THESE FEATURES MAY FOCUS INITIATION IN THE
ERN TX PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
3. A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE IS NOTED OVER WRN OK FROM ROGER MILLS
COUNTY SWD TOWARD WILBARGER COUNTY TX. THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION
WITHIN THIS ZONE OWING TO DIFFERENTIAL DIABATIC HEATING AND
DIFFERENTIAL VERTICAL MIXING RATES COULD ALSO FOCUS CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ERUPT ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES BETWEEN
1930 AND 2100Z. IF CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURS...STORMS WOULD
RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 45-55 KT
WILL FAVOR RAPID EVOLUTION TO FAST MOVING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. WITH
531 M2/S2 OF EFFECTIVE SRH ACCORDING TO THE 17Z NORMAN RAOB...AND A
LARGE DEGREE OF STREAMWISE VORTICITY IN THE LOWEST 0.5
KM...TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...WILL BE OF CONCERN...CONTINGENT ON
THE INITIATION OF STORMS. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR STRONGER
TORNADOES WILL BE NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...WHERE THE ISSUANCE OF A
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO WATCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
THREAT COULD BE SOMEWHAT LOWER SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE NOT AS
GREAT.
ULTIMATELY...THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE CONTINGENT ON
AN INCREASINGLY APPARENT UPTICK IN CONVECTION...FOR WHICH SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WITH A WW...OR PERHAPS MULTIPLE
WATCHES...POSSIBLY BEING ISSUED BY MID-AFTERNOON.
..COHEN.. 04/14/2012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/WRN OK...ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN NORTH TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 141823Z - 142030Z
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES MAY INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH IS POSSIBLE.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BECOME OF INCREASING CONCERN INTO
MID-AFTERNOON OWING TO A FEW APPARENT MESOSCALE PROCESSES:
1. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG A N-S-ORIENTED DRYLINE FROM THE ERN TX/OK
PANHANDLES ACROSS W TX THAT WILL SLOWLY MIX EWD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...AND MAY AID IN STORM INITIATION. SFC WINDS HAVE
SLIGHTLY VEERED WEST OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE LAST
HOUR...SUGGESTING THAT THE DRYLINE MAY BE MODESTLY SHARPENING WITH
AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL ASCENT. THE CUMULUS FIELD JUST
EAST OF THE DRYLINE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY AGITATED PER
RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGES...WHICH COULD EVOLVE INTO DEEPENING
CONVECTION. STRONG HEATING AND DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER CIRCULATIONS JUST
WEST OF THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO AID IN INITIATION.
2. A SECONDARY MOISTURE GRADIENT IS NOTED 30-50 MILES WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...WITH ATTENDANT ASCENT AUGMENTED BY AN
EWD-MIGRATING...SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL TX PANHANDLE WHERE THE MID-LEVEL ASCENT OVERLAYS THE SECONDARY
MOISTURE GRADIENT...AND THESE FEATURES MAY FOCUS INITIATION IN THE
ERN TX PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
3. A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE IS NOTED OVER WRN OK FROM ROGER MILLS
COUNTY SWD TOWARD WILBARGER COUNTY TX. THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION
WITHIN THIS ZONE OWING TO DIFFERENTIAL DIABATIC HEATING AND
DIFFERENTIAL VERTICAL MIXING RATES COULD ALSO FOCUS CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ERUPT ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES BETWEEN
1930 AND 2100Z. IF CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURS...STORMS WOULD
RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 45-55 KT
WILL FAVOR RAPID EVOLUTION TO FAST MOVING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. WITH
531 M2/S2 OF EFFECTIVE SRH ACCORDING TO THE 17Z NORMAN RAOB...AND A
LARGE DEGREE OF STREAMWISE VORTICITY IN THE LOWEST 0.5
KM...TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...WILL BE OF CONCERN...CONTINGENT ON
THE INITIATION OF STORMS. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR STRONGER
TORNADOES WILL BE NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...WHERE THE ISSUANCE OF A
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO WATCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
THREAT COULD BE SOMEWHAT LOWER SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE NOT AS
GREAT.
ULTIMATELY...THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE CONTINGENT ON
AN INCREASINGLY APPARENT UPTICK IN CONVECTION...FOR WHICH SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WITH A WW...OR PERHAPS MULTIPLE
WATCHES...POSSIBLY BEING ISSUED BY MID-AFTERNOON.
..COHEN.. 04/14/2012
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Re: Plains Tornado Outbreak: High Risk on 4/14-15 at OK,KS,NEB
Count the hook echoes:
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NOTICE: I cannot give an expert analysis. Most of my "observations" are made visually with the help of only vital information provided by public advisories.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0526
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEB THROUGH NWRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 141841Z - 142045Z
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SWRN NEB THROUGH NWRN KS BY MID
TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
NEEDED BEFORE 20Z.
THIS AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH SRN NEB INTO SWRN NEB
WHERE IT INTERSECTS A DRYLINE THAT ARCS SEWD THROUGH THE NERN TIP OF
CO THEN SWD THROUGH WRN KS. LOW CLOUDS ARE DECREASING FROM THE SOUTH
AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DEVELOPS NWD. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
DESTABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM SWRN NEB INTO NWRN KS...AND
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS DIABATIC WARMING CONTINUES.
BANDS OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS NERN CO INTO
WRN NEB...AND THIS MAY BE INDICATIVE OF AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING WITHIN
UPPER JET EXIT REGION THAT WILL BEGIN TO OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF CUMULUS
INCREASING IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE OVER WCNTRL KS. AS THE CAP
WEAKENS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE FROM NWRN KS THROUGH SWRN NEB. EFFECTIVE DEEP
SHEAR OF 50+ KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES LIKELY.
..DIAL.. 04/14/2012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEB THROUGH NWRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 141841Z - 142045Z
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SWRN NEB THROUGH NWRN KS BY MID
TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
NEEDED BEFORE 20Z.
THIS AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH SRN NEB INTO SWRN NEB
WHERE IT INTERSECTS A DRYLINE THAT ARCS SEWD THROUGH THE NERN TIP OF
CO THEN SWD THROUGH WRN KS. LOW CLOUDS ARE DECREASING FROM THE SOUTH
AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DEVELOPS NWD. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
DESTABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM SWRN NEB INTO NWRN KS...AND
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS DIABATIC WARMING CONTINUES.
BANDS OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS NERN CO INTO
WRN NEB...AND THIS MAY BE INDICATIVE OF AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING WITHIN
UPPER JET EXIT REGION THAT WILL BEGIN TO OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF CUMULUS
INCREASING IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE OVER WCNTRL KS. AS THE CAP
WEAKENS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE FROM NWRN KS THROUGH SWRN NEB. EFFECTIVE DEEP
SHEAR OF 50+ KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES LIKELY.
..DIAL.. 04/14/2012
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Dave
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
313 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HODGEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NESS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHERN RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
* UNTIL 345 PM CDT
* AT 310 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 2 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BURDETT. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROZEL...NEKOMA...ASH VALLEY AND RUSH CENTER.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
(4:34 PM) DDC continues Tornado Warning for Pawnee, Rush [KS] till 3:45 PM CDT ...AT 329 PM CDT...STORM CHASERS AND TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 10 MILES NORTH OF ROZEL. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADIC STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
313 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HODGEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NESS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHERN RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
* UNTIL 345 PM CDT
* AT 310 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 2 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BURDETT. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROZEL...NEKOMA...ASH VALLEY AND RUSH CENTER.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
(4:34 PM) DDC continues Tornado Warning for Pawnee, Rush [KS] till 3:45 PM CDT ...AT 329 PM CDT...STORM CHASERS AND TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 10 MILES NORTH OF ROZEL. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADIC STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0527
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/WRN KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...
VALID 141844Z - 141945Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 165 CONTINUES.
THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANTLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IS INCREASING OVER
PARTS OF SWRN KS INCLUDING THE DODGE CITY AREA. INFLOW INTO DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS EVOLVING OVER MEADE AND GRAY/FORD COUNTIES IS LIKELY
BECOMING SURFACE BASED PER MODIFIED RUC/OBSERVED SOUNDINGS. SBCAPE
VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AMIDST STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH THESE STORMS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR --
0-1 KM SRH OF 297 M2/S2 PER HAVILAND KS PROFILER THAT ALSO INDICATES
A LARGE AMOUNT OF STREAMWISE VORTICITY CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWEST
0.5 KM AGL -- COULD SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL
CLUSTERS OF STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE WW
AREA WILL POSE MAINLY A LARGE/VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES BEFORE A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT FOR SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS ARRIVES WITHIN A FEW HOURS.
..COHEN.. 04/14/2012
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/WRN KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...
VALID 141844Z - 141945Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 165 CONTINUES.
THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANTLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IS INCREASING OVER
PARTS OF SWRN KS INCLUDING THE DODGE CITY AREA. INFLOW INTO DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS EVOLVING OVER MEADE AND GRAY/FORD COUNTIES IS LIKELY
BECOMING SURFACE BASED PER MODIFIED RUC/OBSERVED SOUNDINGS. SBCAPE
VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AMIDST STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH THESE STORMS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR --
0-1 KM SRH OF 297 M2/S2 PER HAVILAND KS PROFILER THAT ALSO INDICATES
A LARGE AMOUNT OF STREAMWISE VORTICITY CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWEST
0.5 KM AGL -- COULD SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL
CLUSTERS OF STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE WW
AREA WILL POSE MAINLY A LARGE/VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES BEFORE A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT FOR SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS ARRIVES WITHIN A FEW HOURS.
..COHEN.. 04/14/2012
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0528
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN THROUGH ERN NEB AND SWRN IA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...
VALID 141915Z - 142045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 165 CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG...AND VERY
LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING OVER ERN AND SRN NEB.
SEVERE THREAT IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT INTO SWRN IA...AND WW MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER EAST OR ANOTHER WW MIGHT BE ISSUED.
PRIMARY TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING OVER EXTREME SRN NEB
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...AS SFC BASED SUPERCELLS LIFT NORTH INTO NEB
COUNTIES BORDERING THE KS STATE LINE. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE LLJ SHIFTS NWD DURING THE EVENING. THE
SUPERCELL IN NERN NEB HAS BEEN MAINLY A HAIL PRODUCER...BUT MAY NOT
BE FAR FROM SURFACE BASED SUGGESTING A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHER NEAR SFC BASED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST INTO SWRN
IA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EAST OF THETA-E AXIS AND PRIMARY LLJ AND IS
ALSO CLOSE TO THE ERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER SFC BASED INSTABILITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES INTO THE EVENING AS THE LLJ DEVELOPS NEWD AND BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES.
..DIAL.. 04/14/2012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN THROUGH ERN NEB AND SWRN IA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...
VALID 141915Z - 142045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 165 CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG...AND VERY
LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING OVER ERN AND SRN NEB.
SEVERE THREAT IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT INTO SWRN IA...AND WW MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER EAST OR ANOTHER WW MIGHT BE ISSUED.
PRIMARY TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING OVER EXTREME SRN NEB
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...AS SFC BASED SUPERCELLS LIFT NORTH INTO NEB
COUNTIES BORDERING THE KS STATE LINE. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE LLJ SHIFTS NWD DURING THE EVENING. THE
SUPERCELL IN NERN NEB HAS BEEN MAINLY A HAIL PRODUCER...BUT MAY NOT
BE FAR FROM SURFACE BASED SUGGESTING A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHER NEAR SFC BASED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST INTO SWRN
IA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EAST OF THETA-E AXIS AND PRIMARY LLJ AND IS
ALSO CLOSE TO THE ERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER SFC BASED INSTABILITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES INTO THE EVENING AS THE LLJ DEVELOPS NEWD AND BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES.
..DIAL.. 04/14/2012
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Dave
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(4:37 PM) DDC continues Tornado Warning for Edwards, Pawnee, Stafford [KS] till 4:15 PM CDT ...AT 334 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 4 MILES NORTH OF FELLSBURG. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0529
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...
VALID 141928Z - 142000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 165 CONTINUES.
A LARGE...AND POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELL IN MITCHELL COUNTY
KANSAS IS INTERACTING WITH A NWD-MOVING SFC WARM FRONT. THE
BAROCLINIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE WARM FRONT...ALONG WITH STRONGLY
UNSTABLE...BACKGROUND SSELY INFLOW OF 20-25 KT PER SFC OBS...WILL
SUPPORT A SUSTAINED SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT DURING THE NEXT HALF
HOUR TO HOUR...POSSIBLY LONGER. THE SUPERCELL MAY REORGANIZE AS A
LARGER MASS OF CONVECTION MOVES NEWD FROM LINCOLN COUNTY...WITH
ADDITIONAL MESOCYCLONES POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN FLANKS
OF MERGING CONVECTION THAT MAY APPROACH CLOUD AND OTTAWA
COUNTIES...POSSIBLY EVEN FARTHER EAST/NORTHEAST.
..COHEN.. 04/14/2012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...
VALID 141928Z - 142000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 165 CONTINUES.
A LARGE...AND POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELL IN MITCHELL COUNTY
KANSAS IS INTERACTING WITH A NWD-MOVING SFC WARM FRONT. THE
BAROCLINIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE WARM FRONT...ALONG WITH STRONGLY
UNSTABLE...BACKGROUND SSELY INFLOW OF 20-25 KT PER SFC OBS...WILL
SUPPORT A SUSTAINED SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT DURING THE NEXT HALF
HOUR TO HOUR...POSSIBLY LONGER. THE SUPERCELL MAY REORGANIZE AS A
LARGER MASS OF CONVECTION MOVES NEWD FROM LINCOLN COUNTY...WITH
ADDITIONAL MESOCYCLONES POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN FLANKS
OF MERGING CONVECTION THAT MAY APPROACH CLOUD AND OTTAWA
COUNTIES...POSSIBLY EVEN FARTHER EAST/NORTHEAST.
..COHEN.. 04/14/2012
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Re: Plains Tornado Outbreak: High Risk on 4/14-15 at OK,KS,NEB
I think we can safely say that we have several potential monsters...
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NOTICE: I cannot give an expert analysis. Most of my "observations" are made visually with the help of only vital information provided by public advisories.
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