Florida Weather

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Models have trended southward with the low. This means less of a chance of severe weather for
west central Florida, but there should be plenty of rain.

[gsytch]

I am really praying the rain materializes. It has been too long since a nice drenching, I believe being a month ago. Total for April is 1/4" so far. It could always come on a Tuesday rather than a Saturday...just sayin.

[northjaxpro]

NWS Jax is projecting possibly as much as 3 inches across portions of the northeast peninsula this weekend as our Low pressure area is forecast to develop over the Eastern GOM beginning late Saturday into Sunday. The severe weather prospects will still be possible I think primarily over the south central peninsula. However, the severe weather will be be much less as earlier thought as the track of the Low apparently will form a bit farther south than initially projected about 48 hours ago by the models.

The good news is the prospects for the heavy rain over the peninsula, which I can't stress enough how badly it is needed. Hopefully Mother Nature will help in putting a dent into this extreme drought we have been suffering seemingly forever.

[AdamFirst]

SPC has placed a slight risk over the central and southern peninsula for Saturday, with a 15% chance for severe weather.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2012


...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD THAT PERSISTS AMONG THE MODEL DATA...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND EVOLUTION ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND PERHAPS
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE MAY REMAIN WEAK TO
MODEST IN NATURE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOST GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW IN EXCESS OF
30-40 KT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...IF NOT BEFORE...WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER IMPULSE. AS THIS OCCURS...IN THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND NEARLY SATURATED LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...ENLARGING...CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
PROBABLY WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY HAIL.

[AdamFirst]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
306 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN FLORIDA
WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT.

* AT 305 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
LAKE LOUISA...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GROVELAND...AND MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED
TO...WINDERMERE...ORLANDO AND THE ATTRACTIONS AREA.

[NDG]

Very active afternoon and evening across the peninsula's interior and parts of east coast, about to get rain at my house for the second day in a row. No complaints at all.
Sorry that those of you in the immediate western coast have not gotten into the action, the westerly mid level winds have kept the storms away from your area.

[NDG]

About an inch of rain so far and still coming down.

[psyclone]

Awesome pics NDG! I'm sitting out on the parched gulf coast watching convective towers to the east.

[northjaxpro]

Great pics NDG! There were numerous reports of quarter-sized hail in those storms in your area, including one at Disney World.

Yeah, the active weather pattern is now well underway for the peninsula now right on into Sunday. The set-up in the next few days is shaping up to be rather impressive for this time of year. We did not have this storm pattern at all this past winter season. It is a good thing it is late April right now because this southern stream storm system affecting Florida this weekend will eventually phase with the polar northern jet along the East Coast by late weekend. This will carve out a very deep upper level 500mb trough over the Eastern CONUS, and looking at the model runs into Monday, this would have been big snow event for the Appalachians if this was January.

For now, it looks that the models are still keeping the southerly track of the intensifying Low Pressure system to move across the peninsula Saturday night through Sunday morning. The severe storm threat should mainly be from the I-4 corridor and points south, mainly late Saturday afternoon into early Sunday. However, any deviation of the track of the Low pressure area to the north would also spread the potential of severe weather father north up the peninsula as well. That is also something I am watching very closely.


As NDG posted, already over an inch of rain in storms across the central peninsula has occured and thankfully much more of that is heading for the peninsula this weekend to put a dent into this extreme drought. Models are still generally projecting up to as much as 3 inches across portions of the north and central peninsula. The next 36 hours will definitely be about as active across the peninsula than it has been in quite some time that's for sure.

Also, in the wake of the departing Low pressure on Sunday, the pressure gradient looks to be potentially very strong as brisk northwest winds will blow strong across the state Sunday into Monday. It would not surprise me at all if wind advisories are posted by some of the WFOs late into the weekend and Monday. This will also usher in much cooler and drier air into the peninsula into early next week. Guidance runs are projecting mins well down into the 40s Monday and Tuesday mornings in interior areas of North Florida.

[NDG]

Looks like the Tampa Bay area and just all of the west coast and S FL will have a stormy night tonight as a disturbance pulls out of the eastern GOM, as shown by the HRRR, well ahead of the deepening trough.
HRRR shows a break in the action tomorrow morning across the Orlando area before things go downhill later in the day. The 00z NAM shows squally wx moving into the peninsula from the afternoon into the night Saturday.


Radar loop above will not update.

[dizzyfish]

As impressive as that radar looked last night and this morning - barely .15" at my house. Glad some others had a nice soaking. We watched the clouds build higher and higher as they passed us. First couple of thunder rumbles put our one dog in the growl and bark mode.

I have high hopes pinned on the rain later today and tonight as the lake is green (with grass not algae).

[SFLcane]

Good deck of clouds across south florida keeping the heating of the sun down should limit the the threat for severe weather throughout the day but not completely wipe it out.

[psyclone]

i got no rain yesterday or last night. it did dump at least briefly very close by but i manged to get nothing. pretty good squall line is out in the gulf so everyone should get a good dousing later.

[NDG]

Here comes out our storm, starting to wrap around nicely.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

12z NAM shows that S FL still has the best chance for severe wx around the midnight hours.
Those storms to the south of central FL have cutoff some of the low level jet, at least for now, but there is still a chance of a strong squall line coming through central FL later this evening into the night with some of those stronger mid level winds making it to the ground with the squall line.

[northjaxpro]

Water vapor imagery showing the impressive upper level low spinning just off the Louisiana coast and the HPC surface analysis at 12Z this morning has the 1005 mb surface Low pressure area located off the coast just south of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

The GOM system is organizing quite nicely late this morning and look for the rain and thunderstorms to make their way through the peninsula for the next 24-30 hours as the Low moves across the region. The shortwave disturbance well out ahead of the deep trough over the GOM across South Florida was not handled very well by the models and have dumped some very heavy rains across the Keys and areas just south of Greater Miami-Dade. This should keep the atmosphere in that region of the state stable enough to keep severe weather at bay.

Also, the sun has been able to come out a bit here in the Jax area. The daytime heating combined with the upper level dynamics coming in with our system moving in from the GOM will only help fuel the thunderstorms across the north and central portions of the peninsula a bit later today.

[northjaxpro]

Here comes out our storm, starting to wrap around nicely.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

12z NAM shows that S FL still has the best chance for severe wx around the midnight hours.
Those storms to the south of central FL have cutoff some of the low level jet, at least for now, but there is still a chance of a strong squall line coming through central FL later this evening into the night with some of those stronger mid level winds making it to the ground with the squall line.

NDG, you are right. The rain and storms down over South Florida currently will limit the severe weather threat down there for now, but I think a potential squall line may propagate through South Florida during the overnight as a frontal boundary extending from the intensifying Low pressure area moves down the peninsula. IThat is the big thing to watch later tonight for possible severe weather.

[NDG]

The big question that I have is whether some dry air will wrap around the low well ahead of best UL dynamics for severe wx.

[cycloneye]

Discussion by Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather and Storm2k member about what Florida can expect.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557


Saturday, April 21, 2012 10:54 am

By Rob Lightbown

Surface analysis as of late this morning showed a strengthening low pressure system located just south of southeastern Louisiana. This storm system will continue to strengthen this afternoon into tonight leading to the development of a squall line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and tornadoes across central and southern Florida from late this afternoon through tonight.

At this point, some isolated severe thunderstorms that could produce strong winds and maybe a spin-up tornado will be possible across central and south Florida through mid-afternoon. By late this afternoon and through tonight a much more substantial severe weather threat will emerge along and south of a line from Tampa to Orlando to New Smyrna Beach as that strengthening low pressure system tracks across northern Florida and causes the low-level shear to increase and combine with an unstable airmass.

Supercell thunderstorms with damaging winds and tornadoes are expected from late this afternoon through this afternoon and through the overnight hours of tonight across central and south Florida, including Tampa, Orlando, Miami and Fort Myers. We think that this threat will start to emerge as early as 3 to 5 pm this afternoon and continue through much of the night tonight. Additionally, locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning and hail will accompany these storms. This area of thunderstorms, some severe, will finally push off of the east and southeast coast of Florida between 3 and 5 am Sunday morning.

All residents and visitors of central and south Florida should monitor the latest information on this potential severe weather situation. This has the potential to be one of those overnight Florida severe weather outbreaks with the risk for nighttime tornadoes.

[northjaxpro]

That analysis is pretty much on target with my thinking as well.

[gsytch]

just over 1/2" inch from last nights rains...at times it briefly came down heavily! Good precursor if it rains HEAVY later so the ground isn't as dry and it sinks in. The band out there in the GOM is quite impressive.