Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

The large rain shield that moved in out of the Gulf has now reached the 1-75 corridor in the north central peninsula. The rain has been lifting to the north ahead of the approach of the Low pressure system in the GOM. Notice the developing thunderstorms just north of the Orlando area. That area has seen some sun this afternoon, so i would not be surprised to see possible strong to severe storms this evening. I am expecting the region along the St. Johns River basin from Sanford north to the Jax area to fill in with rain and thunderstorms as the evening progresses.

[psyclone]

that radar pic shows very heavy rain going right over the county line fire location. excellent news

[Rgv20]

SPC's take on the potential for severe weather for parts of the Florida peninsula.

/ISSUED 1117 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2012/

...FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL LOW S OF LA WILL MOVE EWD TO THE FL PENINSULA BY LATE
TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE MIDLEVEL WAVE...A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL DEVELOP ENEWD TO THE NE GULF LATE
TODAY AND ACROSS N FL TONIGHT. A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ERN GULF OF MEXICO PRECEDES A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND THIS
CONVECTION WILL APPROACH THE FL BIG BEND AND W COAST BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE FUTURE OF THIS CONVECTION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN BASED
ON MESOSCALE FACTORS. OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION
JUST S OF THE KEYS IS INTERFERING WITH THE NEWD RETURN OF THE
RICHEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS IS SLOWING SURFACE HEATING ACROSS
CENTRAL/S FL.

AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PENINSULA...WITH STRONGER SURFACE HEATING ACROSS N FL...AND RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FARTHER S. MEANWHILE...THE PRIMARY INCREASE
IN LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH.
THERE WILL BE SOME RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE INITIAL STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...EITHER WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OR MORE
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS N FL...AND THE RISK WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH A SECOND BOUT OF STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT /DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF STABILIZATION WITH THE
AFTERNOON STORMS/. GIVEN CONCERNS ABOUT PHASING OF INSTABILITY AND
VERTICAL SHEAR...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MESOSCALE INFLUENCES...WILL
MAINTAIN A LOW-END SLGT RISK.

[Rgv20]

This is the latest graphic posted from the NWS in Miami.

[SFLcane]

Severe threat has diminished somewhat across s.fl in my view due to thick blanket of clouds keeping things quite stable and ull now forecast to stay a little further north of the area then previously anticipated.

[dizzyfish]

Whoop!!! Got doused! 1-1/2" of verrrrry welcome rain. Hope more is on the way - I feel like being a rain hog today.

BTW - very cool out right now. I wonder if that will hinder the severe weather later??

[AdamFirst]

Rain seems to be dying before it gets to the east coast.

[CronkPSU]

we've gotten nothing all day here in NW Orlando in Apopka...even that brand that looked like it was going to nail us gave us just a few drops

[AdamFirst]

We had some sprinkles from the leading edge of the stratoform blob that was parked over South Florida.

Nothing heavy like they suggested. What happened?

[northjaxpro]

NWS Jax just issued a severe thunderstorm warning for the southern sections of the Jax metro and areas south in St. Johns and Clay counties. Thunderstorms have been rapidly developing along the St. Johns River moving north.



SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
634 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
WESTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
SOUTHERN DUVAL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA

* UNTIL 715 PM EDT

* AT 634 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR GREEN COVE SPRINGS...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FRUIT
COVE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SWITZERLAND...FRUIT COVE...DOCTORS INLET...BAYARD...LAKESIDE...
MANDARIN AND ORANGE PARK

[northjaxpro]

HPC initializes the 1001 mb surface Low pressure at 21Z near Panama City.

[NDG]

Dry air wrapped in on the eastern side of the low a lot quicker than models were showing, I am afraid that the drought busting rains for a majority of FL will be nothing but a bust. I am glad that I got close to 2" the last couple of days.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, that dry slot which has been pronounced on satellite imagery all during the day did indeed get entrained into the Low pressure system NDG. However, I still think another round of rain and storms will come in within the next 6-12 hours across the peninsula.

Also, I am currently absolutely hammered hard by a severe thunderstorm moving in now. Very heavyrain and I just measured a wind gust at 47 mph.

[otowntiger]

Another COMPLETE forecast bust for us here in Central Florida!! I got a whopping .04 inches in this big ole rain event that was supposed to make today a washout and bring 2-4 inches of much, much needed rain. They were wrong again.

[CronkPSU]

are we going to get anything later tonight or tomorrow? was 70% chance for both earlier in the day, are those chances gone now too?

[AdamFirst]

North Florida, Southern Georgia and South Florida got plenty of rain from this event.

Central Florida gets shafted once again. Aside from the squall line overnight I think chances for any big rain are toast.

[psyclone]

there's a pretty good line rolling toward west central florida right now. the question is whether or not it can hold together and come onshore with any decent intensity. it's only about 70 here with a mid 60's dewpoint but lapse rates should steepen as that upper low draws closer.

[gsytch]

YES! MOre rain but not the heavy dousing predicted. Total of 1.4" between Fri eve and today, but that is quite a feat in April. Now they are preciting lower to mid 50's for Mon and Tue nights! That will feel awfully chilly for late April and the coldest we have seen in well over a month. I took off MOnday, so a great day for yard work!

[northjaxpro]

Well, a heavy thunderstorm rolled through right over my home location and just over an inch of rain fell. Also had wind gusts at 47 mph when the storm moved over, although I did not see any hail. Happy to get that rain. We can take whatever we can get at this point. The rain has been even heavier just north of me up in SE Georgia as reports of up to 4 inches+ has occurred in the Waycross area.

The surface Low pressure area is approaching the Big Bend region of the peninsula currently. Observing radar and satellite imagery, there is a line of storms that has developed just ahead of the frontal boundary in the extreme Eastern Gulf of Mexico region moving east toward the west coast of the peninsula.

Despite the dry slot which did get entrained into the Low pressure system, the dynamics of this Gulf system are still impressive to provide more lift and energy in the atmosphere to re-fire thunderstorms overnight and into Sunday morning. Although the severe weather potential has substantially decreased, there is still a decent chance that strong thunderstorms will move back into and down the peninsula as the Low moves across North Florida early Sunday. Showers and storms are still quite possible into Sunday morning to develop ahead of the frontal boundary as it pushes down the peninsula late tonight and during the morning hours tomorrow.

[AdamFirst]

Pretty potent squall line coming in. Has convection building ahead of it as well.