Caribbean - Central America Weather
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- cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
The latest update.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1137 AM AST SUN APR 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
AND HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK THEN FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH TRADE WINDS
RETURNING TO THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE LOCAL AREA AND HAS
BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.
EXPECT WRN AREAS TO CONTINUE TO FILL IN AS ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
PER LATEST ACARS PLOT WITH AXIS NOW OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS TO
RESULT IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN SHOWER COVERAGE NEXT SVRL DAYS BUT
ALSO TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS HOT
AND VERY HUMID WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH WED WITH A
SLIGHT RELIEF FOR THU AS EASTERLY TRADES RETURN AND GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AT JBQ THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHRA/TSRA.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AT JSJ WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 87 77 / 30 30 50 30
STT 86 76 86 76 / 30 40 40 40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1137 AM AST SUN APR 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
AND HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK THEN FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH TRADE WINDS
RETURNING TO THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE LOCAL AREA AND HAS
BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.
EXPECT WRN AREAS TO CONTINUE TO FILL IN AS ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
PER LATEST ACARS PLOT WITH AXIS NOW OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS TO
RESULT IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN SHOWER COVERAGE NEXT SVRL DAYS BUT
ALSO TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS HOT
AND VERY HUMID WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH WED WITH A
SLIGHT RELIEF FOR THU AS EASTERLY TRADES RETURN AND GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AT JBQ THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHRA/TSRA.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AT JSJ WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 87 77 / 30 30 50 30
STT 86 76 86 76 / 30 40 40 40
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145464
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
The afternoon update from the San Juan NWS has no changes to what is expected in Puerto Rico for the next few days and that is mainly afternoon showers and warm temperatures.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
207 PM AST SUN APR 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
AND HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK THEN FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH TRADE WINDS
RETURNING TO THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOPED LATE
IN THE MORNING HOURS...AS A MOIST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE NEAR 3 INCHES
NEAR GURABO...WHICH PRODUCED RISES IN RIO GURABO EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...BUT DID NOT LAST FOR MORE THAN ONE
HOUR. CLOUD COVERAGE HAS LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ACTIVITY
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...BUT CANT BE RULE OUT...AS LATEST SATELITE
IMAGES INDICATED A CLEARING TREND. MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
ALSO...AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND DOMINATES THE REGION...HIGHER
THAN NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. FOR THURSDAY...A MORE EASTERLY TRADE
WIND FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA...WITH MOISTURE DECREASING AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER TJBQ THROUGH AT
LEAST 22/22Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 87 / 30 50 30 50
STT 76 86 76 86 / 40 40 40 40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
207 PM AST SUN APR 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
AND HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK THEN FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH TRADE WINDS
RETURNING TO THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOPED LATE
IN THE MORNING HOURS...AS A MOIST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE NEAR 3 INCHES
NEAR GURABO...WHICH PRODUCED RISES IN RIO GURABO EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...BUT DID NOT LAST FOR MORE THAN ONE
HOUR. CLOUD COVERAGE HAS LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ACTIVITY
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...BUT CANT BE RULE OUT...AS LATEST SATELITE
IMAGES INDICATED A CLEARING TREND. MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
ALSO...AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND DOMINATES THE REGION...HIGHER
THAN NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. FOR THURSDAY...A MORE EASTERLY TRADE
WIND FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA...WITH MOISTURE DECREASING AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER TJBQ THROUGH AT
LEAST 22/22Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 87 / 30 50 30 50
STT 76 86 76 86 / 40 40 40 40
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145464
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning. As I do every morning,I go to the San Juan NWS site to pick up the discussion,but this morning I could not do it as the site is not working. Hopefully,the site comes back and we know with the discussion,what to expect today and in comming days.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145464
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST MON APR 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST...CROSSING THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT. WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE WEEKEND AND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. BEST
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BE MID WEEK THIS WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH
CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON TUESDAY AS
STRONG TROUGHING DOMINATES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY RETURNS TO THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AFTER THE WEEKEND.
AT LOWER LEVELS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE HAS ENTERED NEW JERSEY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTH. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY AND KEEP MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF FLORIDA WILL JOIN WITH THE HIGH
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO KEEP EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY GOOD MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SOUTHEAST FLOW WAS EVIDENT OVER THE AREA AS EVEN
LAND BREEZES ON THE SOUTH COAST GAVE WAY TO INCOMING SHOWERS.
SHOWERS WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS WERE SEEN MOST OF THE NIGHT BEGINNING
ON THE EAST COAST AND SPREADING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS IS A
GOOD INDICATOR THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTH AND EAST EXTREMITIES OF PUERTO RICO AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN IS IN
STORE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL COASTS AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
AROUND...AND SOMETIMES OVER...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH
MOISTURE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT FROM THE TWO PLUS INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 23/00Z SOUNDING...HOWEVER THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A WIDE SWATH OF BETTER MOISTURE THAT
MOVED OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT ALSO BEGINNING AROUND
23/00Z AND WOULD EXPECT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHOWER
ACTIVITY LEVELS HIGH. ALSO BUMPED UP MOS TEMPERATURES ON THE
NORTH COAST ANOTHER 2 DEGREES. WARM AIR HAS CONTINUED TO FLOW
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND MOS WAS SEVERAL DEGREES TOO COOL ON THE
NORTH COAST YESTERDAY. MANY AREAS ON THE NORTH COAST WILL SEE
LOWER 90S BY MIDDAY. ALL THE MODELS SHOWED TODAY AS HAVING THE
HIGHEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES OF ANYTIME THIS WEEK. WITH
THIS GOOD MOISTURE WE LOOK FOR AFTERNOON URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING TO RECUR ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...BUT COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE
ISLAND TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS FROM THE HEATING AND
BETTER MOISTURE AT UPPER LEVELS WILL BE AIDED BY INCREASED
DIVERGENCE ALOFT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE ALTHOUGH THE
BEST MOISTURE STILL STAYS OVER HISPANIOLA...EXPECT TO SEE
CONTINUED GOOD COVERAGE OVER MOST OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...WITH WIND FLOW TURNING TO THE EAST...
THE FOCUS OF THE SHOWERS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND DIMINISH OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE
WILL RECOVER LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS AFFECTING TJPS EARLY. FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS DUE TO DEVELOPING
SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO. VCTS POSSIBLE AT TJSJ...TJMZ...AND
TJPS. NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO...THEREFORE TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN AND
AROUND TJBQ. EXPECT PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...PARTICULARLY AT TJMZ AND TJBQ.
&&
.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN GENERALLY 3-5 KNOTS AND 10 TO
17 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHER WINDS MAY BE SEEN LATER
IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF FLORIDA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 76 87 75 / 50 30 50 30
STT 84 77 85 77 / 40 50 50 30
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145464
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
317 PM AST MON APR 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH OF LOW PRES ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL HOLD THROUGH
MID WEEK THEN WEAKEN. TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THU AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ERN DOM REP AND THE MONA
PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AS DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER THE OH
VALLEY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SERN CANADA. 12Z GFS40 VERIFIED QUITE
WELL TODAY SHOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNWARD MOTION ACROSS
THE ISLAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE 90S AS WAS
ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST SVRL DAYS. RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST TO
NEAR 60W BY 00Z WED WITH GFS INDICATING A SLIGHTLY BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE TOMORROW AND BETTER UPWARD MOTION TUE AND WED.
ANTICIPATE SCT SHOWERS TO RETURN TO NW PR TUE AND WED. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT COOLING AT 950 AND 850 MB WITH SHOULD RESULT IN A
DEG OR TWO OF COOLING AT THE SFC. CONDITIONS LOOK VERY ACTIVE OVER
HISPANIOLA AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS TO
AFFECT THE MONA PASSAGE ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
UPPER TROF ACROSS ERN NOAM LIFTS OUT OVER TOP OF MID ATLC RIDGE
THU WITH UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADING OVER THE AREA OVR THE WEEKEND.
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS THU WITH PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENING AND TRADES RETURNING TO THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS STAY UP
OVR THE WEEKEND WITH A SIG DRYING TREND FCST FRI-MON.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET THROUGH FRI BUT INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
TO 4-6 FT AS TRADE WINDS INCREASE.
&&
.CLIMATE...SO FAR HIGH AT SJU AIRPORT HAS BEEN 91F AND RECORD IS
92F. SO THERE STILL A CHANCE OF TYING OR BREAKING THE RECORD
TODAY. RECORD FOR TOMORROW IS 95F AND WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE TO BREAK
ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOME SLIGHT COOLING AT 950 AND 850 MBS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 78 85 / 0 50 0 20
STT 79 86 79 79 / 20 20 20 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
317 PM AST MON APR 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH OF LOW PRES ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL HOLD THROUGH
MID WEEK THEN WEAKEN. TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THU AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ERN DOM REP AND THE MONA
PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AS DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER THE OH
VALLEY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SERN CANADA. 12Z GFS40 VERIFIED QUITE
WELL TODAY SHOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNWARD MOTION ACROSS
THE ISLAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE 90S AS WAS
ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST SVRL DAYS. RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST TO
NEAR 60W BY 00Z WED WITH GFS INDICATING A SLIGHTLY BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE TOMORROW AND BETTER UPWARD MOTION TUE AND WED.
ANTICIPATE SCT SHOWERS TO RETURN TO NW PR TUE AND WED. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT COOLING AT 950 AND 850 MB WITH SHOULD RESULT IN A
DEG OR TWO OF COOLING AT THE SFC. CONDITIONS LOOK VERY ACTIVE OVER
HISPANIOLA AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS TO
AFFECT THE MONA PASSAGE ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
UPPER TROF ACROSS ERN NOAM LIFTS OUT OVER TOP OF MID ATLC RIDGE
THU WITH UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADING OVER THE AREA OVR THE WEEKEND.
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS THU WITH PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENING AND TRADES RETURNING TO THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS STAY UP
OVR THE WEEKEND WITH A SIG DRYING TREND FCST FRI-MON.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET THROUGH FRI BUT INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
TO 4-6 FT AS TRADE WINDS INCREASE.
&&
.CLIMATE...SO FAR HIGH AT SJU AIRPORT HAS BEEN 91F AND RECORD IS
92F. SO THERE STILL A CHANCE OF TYING OR BREAKING THE RECORD
TODAY. RECORD FOR TOMORROW IS 95F AND WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE TO BREAK
ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOME SLIGHT COOLING AT 950 AND 850 MBS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 78 85 / 0 50 0 20
STT 79 86 79 79 / 20 20 20 20
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145464
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1004 PM AST MON APR 23 2012
.UPDATE...A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW.
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES THIS EVENING DEPICTED ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS. WITH A SOUTH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. IN COMPARISON
WITH PREVIOUS DAYS...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PUERTO RICO DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1004 PM AST MON APR 23 2012
.UPDATE...A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW.
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES THIS EVENING DEPICTED ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS. WITH A SOUTH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. IN COMPARISON
WITH PREVIOUS DAYS...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PUERTO RICO DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
These are the temperatures in Central America on April 21 2012:
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.1°C (70.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.5°C (47.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.6°C (67.3°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.2°C (52.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.5°C (70.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.8°C (62.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.3°C (43.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.1°C (61.0°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 35°C (95°F) HOTTEST SINCE MAY 18 2011
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 31.6°C (88.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 28.2°C (82.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 37°C (99°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.2°C (84.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.9°C (73.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.8°C (94.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 30°C (86°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.8°C (82.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.2°C (63.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.5°C (92.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.1°C (91.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.9°C (76.8°F)
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.1°C (70.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.5°C (47.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.6°C (67.3°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.2°C (52.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.5°C (70.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.8°C (62.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.3°C (43.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.1°C (61.0°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 35°C (95°F) HOTTEST SINCE MAY 18 2011
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 31.6°C (88.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 28.2°C (82.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 37°C (99°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.2°C (84.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.9°C (73.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.8°C (94.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 30°C (86°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.8°C (82.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.2°C (63.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.5°C (92.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.1°C (91.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.9°C (76.8°F)
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
A very unusual late season cold front has reached the area and it produced cooler temperatures in Belize on April 22, and cooler temperatures in the rest of Central America on April 23. These are the observations for April 22 2012:
Minimum Temperatures
-Warmer than normal in Panama. Near normal in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua. Cooler than normal in Belize and Costa Rica.
Belize city, Belize 21°C (70°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 5.3°C (41.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 26°C (79°F) WARMEST SINCE MAY 21 2011
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.7°C (67.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.1°C (52.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.4°C (61.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.3°C (37.9°F) Coldest since March 12 2012
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.7°C (76.5°F) Warmest since March 18 2012
Boquete, Panama 16.3°C (61.3°F)
Maximum Temperatures
-Warmer than normal in Costa Rica. Near normal in Belize, Guatemala, Nicaragua and Panama. Cooler than normal in El Salvador and Honduras.
Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 28.9°C (84.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.0°C (71.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.4°C (86.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.0°C (66.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.6°C (94.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F) Coolest since March 14 2012
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 30.3°C (86.5°F) Warmest since September 28 2011
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 16.3°C (61.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.1°C (91.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.7°C (90.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 23.8°C (74.8°F)
Minimum Temperatures
-Warmer than normal in Panama. Near normal in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua. Cooler than normal in Belize and Costa Rica.
Belize city, Belize 21°C (70°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 5.3°C (41.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 26°C (79°F) WARMEST SINCE MAY 21 2011
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.7°C (67.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.1°C (52.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.4°C (61.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.3°C (37.9°F) Coldest since March 12 2012
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.7°C (76.5°F) Warmest since March 18 2012
Boquete, Panama 16.3°C (61.3°F)
Maximum Temperatures
-Warmer than normal in Costa Rica. Near normal in Belize, Guatemala, Nicaragua and Panama. Cooler than normal in El Salvador and Honduras.
Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 28.9°C (84.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.0°C (71.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.4°C (86.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.0°C (66.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.6°C (94.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F) Coolest since March 14 2012
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 30.3°C (86.5°F) Warmest since September 28 2011
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 16.3°C (61.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.1°C (91.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.7°C (90.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 23.8°C (74.8°F)
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145464
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning. More warm temperatures are expected today with little precipitation.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST TUE APR 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNTIL EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
BAHAMAS...MOVING EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...TRADE WINDS
RETURN FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...UNDER THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...ONLY LIGHT ISOLATED
SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED. PRECIPITABLE WATER AT THE 24/00Z SOUNDING
WAS 1.86 INCHES WHILE SATELLITE DERIVED BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER AT 24/07Z INDICATED THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER HAD GONE DOWN TO
1.65 INCHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CONDITIONS TODAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE CONDITIONS YESTERDAY...WITH ABOUT 1000 J/KG
LESS CAPE THAN YESTERDAY AND AN INVERSION AT ABOUT 800MB. COMPUTER
MODELS KEEP SUGGESTING THAT THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO WILL OBSERVE NUMEROUS SHOWERS...HOWEVER...THAT HAS NOT BEEN
THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...WE WERE CONSERVATIVE
WITH THE POPS GIVEN THE FACT THAT NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE
PAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE USVI.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES NEXT 24 HRS WITH EXCEPTIONS OF BRIEF MVFR AT TNCM AND
TKPK. HOWEVER...AFT 24/17Z BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE VICINITY OF
TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 24/22Z. LLVL WINDS 12 KT OR LESS FROM SSE AT OR
BELOW 7 KFT. STILL SEEING UP TO 45 KT BTWN 35-45 KFT. A SHEAR LINE
WITH SCT CONVECTION WILL BE ENCOUNTERED ABOUT 150-200 NM NORTHWEST
OF SAN JUAN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 76 88 75 / 20 10 20 10
STT 85 77 85 76 / 10 20 20 10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST TUE APR 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNTIL EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
BAHAMAS...MOVING EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...TRADE WINDS
RETURN FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...UNDER THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...ONLY LIGHT ISOLATED
SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED. PRECIPITABLE WATER AT THE 24/00Z SOUNDING
WAS 1.86 INCHES WHILE SATELLITE DERIVED BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER AT 24/07Z INDICATED THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER HAD GONE DOWN TO
1.65 INCHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CONDITIONS TODAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE CONDITIONS YESTERDAY...WITH ABOUT 1000 J/KG
LESS CAPE THAN YESTERDAY AND AN INVERSION AT ABOUT 800MB. COMPUTER
MODELS KEEP SUGGESTING THAT THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO WILL OBSERVE NUMEROUS SHOWERS...HOWEVER...THAT HAS NOT BEEN
THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...WE WERE CONSERVATIVE
WITH THE POPS GIVEN THE FACT THAT NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE
PAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE USVI.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES NEXT 24 HRS WITH EXCEPTIONS OF BRIEF MVFR AT TNCM AND
TKPK. HOWEVER...AFT 24/17Z BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE VICINITY OF
TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 24/22Z. LLVL WINDS 12 KT OR LESS FROM SSE AT OR
BELOW 7 KFT. STILL SEEING UP TO 45 KT BTWN 35-45 KFT. A SHEAR LINE
WITH SCT CONVECTION WILL BE ENCOUNTERED ABOUT 150-200 NM NORTHWEST
OF SAN JUAN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 76 88 75 / 20 10 20 10
STT 85 77 85 76 / 10 20 20 10
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145464
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST TUE APR 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WITH LONG
WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE
UNITED STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL
PROVIDE SOME VENTILATION FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK MID
LEVEL PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST AND SLIGHTLY
ERODES THE UPPER RIDGE NOW OVERHEAD. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC SOUTHWARDS ACROSS CUBA THEN INTO THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. A SECONDARY FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWARDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE LATTER MENTIONED TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
WESTWARD OVER THEN NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE WEAKENING...AS STRONG
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PRESENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS WEAK SOUTH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE IT BECOMES MORE EASTERLY BY THURSDAY.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED FAIRLY DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR
MASS...WITH SHALLOW PATCHES OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW. PWAT VALUES ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN RANGED BETWEEN 1.70 TO 1.90
INCHES. THEREFORE WITH THIS WEAKER WIND FLOW TODAY... EXPECT MORE
LOCAL TERRAIN AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TODAY IN SOME AREAS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO.
INTENSE HEATING AND PROXIMITY OF A MID LEVEL PERTURBATION MAY
LEAD TO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ISOLATED SPOTS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER... EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE SHORT LIVED AND NOT WIDESPREAD. MOST OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND MAINLY LOCALLY AND AND DIURNALLY INDUCED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BE A CHANGE IN THE STEERING FLOW AS THE TRADE WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE LOCAL
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND MOST THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
IN SCT SHOWERS...MAINLY IN AND AROUND TJBQ. LLVL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 74 85 / 10 20 10 10
STT 77 85 76 86 / 20 20 10 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST TUE APR 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WITH LONG
WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE
UNITED STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL
PROVIDE SOME VENTILATION FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK MID
LEVEL PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST AND SLIGHTLY
ERODES THE UPPER RIDGE NOW OVERHEAD. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC SOUTHWARDS ACROSS CUBA THEN INTO THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. A SECONDARY FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWARDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE LATTER MENTIONED TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
WESTWARD OVER THEN NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE WEAKENING...AS STRONG
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PRESENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS WEAK SOUTH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE IT BECOMES MORE EASTERLY BY THURSDAY.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED FAIRLY DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR
MASS...WITH SHALLOW PATCHES OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW. PWAT VALUES ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN RANGED BETWEEN 1.70 TO 1.90
INCHES. THEREFORE WITH THIS WEAKER WIND FLOW TODAY... EXPECT MORE
LOCAL TERRAIN AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TODAY IN SOME AREAS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO.
INTENSE HEATING AND PROXIMITY OF A MID LEVEL PERTURBATION MAY
LEAD TO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ISOLATED SPOTS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER... EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE SHORT LIVED AND NOT WIDESPREAD. MOST OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND MAINLY LOCALLY AND AND DIURNALLY INDUCED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BE A CHANGE IN THE STEERING FLOW AS THE TRADE WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE LOCAL
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND MOST THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
IN SCT SHOWERS...MAINLY IN AND AROUND TJBQ. LLVL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 74 85 / 10 20 10 10
STT 77 85 76 86 / 20 20 10 10
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
APRIL 2012, WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD IN EL SALVADOR
April has not ended yet, the pattern has changed to a much drier one but the record rainfall has already been broken in El Salvador. The national average rainfall on April is 52 mm/2.05 inches but so far 119 mm/4.69 inches have been registered this month. The previous record was on April 1979 with 117 mm/4.61 inches. Several rainfall records have been broken in the last 2 years:
-May 29 2010: Wettest day ever in El Salvador, 483 mm/19.01 inches fell in 24 hours because of Tropical Storm Agatha.
-May 2010: Wettest may ever, 526 mm/20.71 inches were registered and the normal is about 200 mm/7.87 inches.
-2010: Wettest year on record, 2549 mm/100.4 inches were registered and the normal yearly rainfall is 1800 mm/70.9 inches.
-October 11 2011: 2nd wettest day on record, Tropical Depression 12-E produced 433 mm/17.04 inches in 24 hours.
-October 2011: Wettest october and wettest month ever registered in El Salvador, the national mean was 800 mm/31.5 inches, the normal rainfall for october is 240 mm/9.45 inches.
-2011: 2nd wettest year on record, the total rainfall was 2429 mm/95.63 inches.
-Tropical depression 12 and its remnants: wettest and longest rainfall event in El Salvador, the highest rainfall amount was 1513 mm/59.57 inches in 9 days.
-April 2012: wettest April on record.
April has not ended yet, the pattern has changed to a much drier one but the record rainfall has already been broken in El Salvador. The national average rainfall on April is 52 mm/2.05 inches but so far 119 mm/4.69 inches have been registered this month. The previous record was on April 1979 with 117 mm/4.61 inches. Several rainfall records have been broken in the last 2 years:
-May 29 2010: Wettest day ever in El Salvador, 483 mm/19.01 inches fell in 24 hours because of Tropical Storm Agatha.
-May 2010: Wettest may ever, 526 mm/20.71 inches were registered and the normal is about 200 mm/7.87 inches.
-2010: Wettest year on record, 2549 mm/100.4 inches were registered and the normal yearly rainfall is 1800 mm/70.9 inches.
-October 11 2011: 2nd wettest day on record, Tropical Depression 12-E produced 433 mm/17.04 inches in 24 hours.
-October 2011: Wettest october and wettest month ever registered in El Salvador, the national mean was 800 mm/31.5 inches, the normal rainfall for october is 240 mm/9.45 inches.
-2011: 2nd wettest year on record, the total rainfall was 2429 mm/95.63 inches.
-Tropical depression 12 and its remnants: wettest and longest rainfall event in El Salvador, the highest rainfall amount was 1513 mm/59.57 inches in 9 days.
-April 2012: wettest April on record.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Cooler than normal temperatures have been registered in northern Central America thanks to the cold front and cold high pressure that has been in place in the region. These are the temperatures for April 23 2012:
Minimum Temperatures
-Warmer than normal in Nicaragua. Near normal in Costa Rica and Panama. Cooler than normal in Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and Belize.
Belize city, Belize 20°C (68°F) Coolest since March 16 2012
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 17.6°C (63.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13.7°C (56.7°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 3.0°C (37.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.8°C (64.0°F) Coldest since March 22 2012
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.5°C (49.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.9°C (75.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.8°C (42.4°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.5°C (74.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.1°C (73.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.3°C (61.3°F)
Maximum Temperatures
-Near normal in Nicaragua and Belize. Cooler than normal in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama.
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 28.9°C (84.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25.0°C (77.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.5°C (85.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 17.9°C (64.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.4°C (95.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 26°C (79°F) Coolest since March 8 2012
La Esperanza, Honduras 20°C (68°F) Coolest since March 6 2012
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 24.0°C (75.2°F) Coolest since March 17 2012
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 14.4°C (57.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.9°C (91.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.2°C (90.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 23.8°C (74.8°F)
Minimum Temperatures
-Warmer than normal in Nicaragua. Near normal in Costa Rica and Panama. Cooler than normal in Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and Belize.
Belize city, Belize 20°C (68°F) Coolest since March 16 2012
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 17.6°C (63.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13.7°C (56.7°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 3.0°C (37.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.8°C (64.0°F) Coldest since March 22 2012
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.5°C (49.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.9°C (75.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.8°C (42.4°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.5°C (74.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.1°C (73.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.3°C (61.3°F)
Maximum Temperatures
-Near normal in Nicaragua and Belize. Cooler than normal in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama.
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 28.9°C (84.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25.0°C (77.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.5°C (85.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 17.9°C (64.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.4°C (95.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 26°C (79°F) Coolest since March 8 2012
La Esperanza, Honduras 20°C (68°F) Coolest since March 6 2012
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 24.0°C (75.2°F) Coolest since March 17 2012
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 14.4°C (57.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.9°C (91.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.2°C (90.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 23.8°C (74.8°F)
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145464
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning. More warm temperatures but with a little bit more rain in the afternoon is expected in PR.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST WED APR 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE TROUGH LOCATE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ACTIVE WEATHER WAS SEEN IN SATELITE IMAGES AND
DOPPLER RADAR WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND WILL BE REPLACE BY A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TRADE WIND FLOW
WILL RETURN TO THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH WILL BRING PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. FOR THE
WEEKEND...A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATED THE LOCAL
AREA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MORE ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. IN THE LONG TERM...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND MOST THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
IN AND AROUND TJBQ AFTER 18Z. LLVL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 75 / 40 10 10 20
STT 85 76 86 77 / 20 10 10 20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST WED APR 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE TROUGH LOCATE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ACTIVE WEATHER WAS SEEN IN SATELITE IMAGES AND
DOPPLER RADAR WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND WILL BE REPLACE BY A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TRADE WIND FLOW
WILL RETURN TO THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH WILL BRING PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. FOR THE
WEEKEND...A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATED THE LOCAL
AREA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MORE ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. IN THE LONG TERM...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND MOST THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
IN AND AROUND TJBQ AFTER 18Z. LLVL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 75 / 40 10 10 20
STT 85 76 86 77 / 20 10 10 20
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145464
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST WED APR 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE HISPANOLA WILL DISSIPATE ON
THURSDAY AS LOSES THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. AN INDUCED/PREFRONTAL
TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH
FRIDAY AS MOVES WEST INTO THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A HIGH
BUILDING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BRING A RETURN OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ON THURSDAY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF
OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN MUCH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND THE INDUCED TROUGH OVER
THE HISPANOLA AND PORTIONS OF THE MONA PASSAGE. SATELLITE DERIVED
PW DEPICTS AN ELONGATED BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ABOVE 2.25 INCHES JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE PROXIMITY OF THESE FEATURES AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...ALONG
WITH THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IS RESULTING IN ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ATTM...THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND NORTHERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION...RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF A MORE STABLE
AIR MASS OVER THE ISLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT AFTN SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PR TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET LEAVING MAINLY VFR CONDS ACROSS
PR AND REST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE FCST PRD. VFR CONDS
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES NXT 24 HRS...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC EN
ROUTE TO TJSJ AND TJBQ FM THE U.S. MAINLAND. LCL MTN TOP OBSCR WILL
ALSO REMAIN PSBL ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PR IN SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
TIL 25/23Z.
&&
.MARINE...A MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 84 / 20 20 40 40
STT 77 86 76 86 / 20 20 50 50
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST WED APR 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE HISPANOLA WILL DISSIPATE ON
THURSDAY AS LOSES THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. AN INDUCED/PREFRONTAL
TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH
FRIDAY AS MOVES WEST INTO THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A HIGH
BUILDING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BRING A RETURN OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ON THURSDAY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF
OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN MUCH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND THE INDUCED TROUGH OVER
THE HISPANOLA AND PORTIONS OF THE MONA PASSAGE. SATELLITE DERIVED
PW DEPICTS AN ELONGATED BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ABOVE 2.25 INCHES JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE PROXIMITY OF THESE FEATURES AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...ALONG
WITH THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IS RESULTING IN ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ATTM...THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND NORTHERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION...RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF A MORE STABLE
AIR MASS OVER THE ISLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT AFTN SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PR TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET LEAVING MAINLY VFR CONDS ACROSS
PR AND REST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE FCST PRD. VFR CONDS
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES NXT 24 HRS...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC EN
ROUTE TO TJSJ AND TJBQ FM THE U.S. MAINLAND. LCL MTN TOP OBSCR WILL
ALSO REMAIN PSBL ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PR IN SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
TIL 25/23Z.
&&
.MARINE...A MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 84 / 20 20 40 40
STT 77 86 76 86 / 20 20 50 50
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145464
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
It looks like the rainy period that PR has been thru for the past 24 hours will go away starting on Thursday.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
949 PM AST WED APR 25 2012
.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES THIS EVENING
DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
THE MONA CHANNEL NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THEN NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE
WEAKENING...AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH BUILD NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE EASTERLY TRADE
WIND FLOW BY TOMORROW AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A MORE STABLE AND DRY AIR
MASS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH A RETURN TO THE TYPICAL
DIURNAL AND NOCTURNAL INDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
949 PM AST WED APR 25 2012
.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES THIS EVENING
DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
THE MONA CHANNEL NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THEN NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE
WEAKENING...AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH BUILD NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE EASTERLY TRADE
WIND FLOW BY TOMORROW AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A MORE STABLE AND DRY AIR
MASS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH A RETURN TO THE TYPICAL
DIURNAL AND NOCTURNAL INDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Unseasonably cool and enjoyable minimum and maximum temperatures have been registered in most of Central America as the drier and cooler air mass persists in the region. These are the temperatures for April 24 2012.
Minimum Temperatures
-Near normal in Nicaragua. Cooler than normal in Belize, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama.
Belize city, Belize 18°C (64°F) Coldest since January 6 2012
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 15.1°C (59.2°F) Coldest since March 5 2012
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13.0°C (55.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 1.0°C (33.8°F) Coldest since March 17 2012
Zacapa, Guatemala 18°C (64°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.3°C (63.1°F) Coldest since March 22 2012
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.3°C (50.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.2°C (73.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.1°C (61.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.2°C (41.4°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.5°C (59.9°F)
Maximum Temperatures
-Near normal in Nicaragua. Cooler than normal in Belize, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama.
Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F) Coolest since March 13 2012
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 28.2°C (82.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.1°C (86.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 17.4°C (63.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.4°C (95.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 20°C (68°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 23.5°C (74.3°F) Coolest since January 6 2012
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 10.6°C (51.1°F) Coldest since March 15 2012
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.6°C (90.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 28.9°C (84.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.4°C (75.9°F)
Minimum Temperatures
-Near normal in Nicaragua. Cooler than normal in Belize, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama.
Belize city, Belize 18°C (64°F) Coldest since January 6 2012
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 15.1°C (59.2°F) Coldest since March 5 2012
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13.0°C (55.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 1.0°C (33.8°F) Coldest since March 17 2012
Zacapa, Guatemala 18°C (64°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.3°C (63.1°F) Coldest since March 22 2012
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.3°C (50.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.2°C (73.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.1°C (61.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.2°C (41.4°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.5°C (59.9°F)
Maximum Temperatures
-Near normal in Nicaragua. Cooler than normal in Belize, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama.
Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F) Coolest since March 13 2012
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 28.2°C (82.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.1°C (86.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 17.4°C (63.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.4°C (95.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 20°C (68°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 23.5°C (74.3°F) Coolest since January 6 2012
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 10.6°C (51.1°F) Coldest since March 15 2012
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.6°C (90.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 28.9°C (84.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.4°C (75.9°F)
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145464
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Good morning.Drier weather is expected for PR in the next few days with only some showers moving with the trade winds and showers forming in interior PR in the afternoons.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST THU APR 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WINDS...WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION
FROM TIME TO TIME.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVE
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN
FACT...ALL COMPUTER MODEL AGREED ON BRINGING TO THE AREA ONE OF
THIS PATCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...SINCE WINDS ARE INCREASING AND ARE GOING
TO MOVE THESE PATCHES QUICKLY OVER THE AREA. IN THE
MEANTIME...EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. IN THE LONG TERM...AT THIS
MOMENT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT AFTN SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR AFTER 17Z. VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL
TAF SITES NXT 24 HRS...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THE TERMINAL OF JMZ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVAILING
WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG
THE COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 85 75 / 20 40 40 20
STT 84 75 86 76 / 20 50 50 20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST THU APR 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WINDS...WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION
FROM TIME TO TIME.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVE
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN
FACT...ALL COMPUTER MODEL AGREED ON BRINGING TO THE AREA ONE OF
THIS PATCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...SINCE WINDS ARE INCREASING AND ARE GOING
TO MOVE THESE PATCHES QUICKLY OVER THE AREA. IN THE
MEANTIME...EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. IN THE LONG TERM...AT THIS
MOMENT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT AFTN SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR AFTER 17Z. VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL
TAF SITES NXT 24 HRS...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THE TERMINAL OF JMZ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVAILING
WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG
THE COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 85 75 / 20 40 40 20
STT 84 75 86 76 / 20 50 50 20
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145464
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST THU APR 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE HISPANOLA WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST INTO THE CENTRAL AMERICA ON SATURDAY.
A HIGH BUILDING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS IS BRINGING THE RETURN OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER PUERTO
RICO DURING THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
AFFECTING THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALSO
SHOWED A FEW STREAMERS DEVELOPING IN THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE SMALL
ISLANDS. ONE OF THEM FORMED DOWNSTREAM OF EL YUNQUE AND AFFECTED
SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAVE RANGED BETWEEN A QUARTER
TO AN INCH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FORM IN
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO UNTIL
SUNSET.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN EXPANDING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. SYNOPTIC MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REACH IT MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE
TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FAVOR THE EROSION OF THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PWAT MINIMA OF
AROUND 1.3 INCHES ON SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAP AROUND 850 MB. EXPECTING WEATHER CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND BECOME
MORE STABLE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AND LESS THAN NORMAL MOISTURE. FOR THE NEXT WEEK...UPPER THROUGH
WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION INCREASING THE MOISTURE AND THE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...AFTN SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PR WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFT 26/22Z
LEAVING MOSTLY VFR CONDS. EXPECT VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL DURG FCST PD
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT TAF
SITES OR ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. PREVAILING WIND WILL BE FROM
THE EAST FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS.
&&
.MARINE...THERE ARE NO MARINE RELATED ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. AS
NOTED ABOVE...WE EXPECT THE RETURN OF THE FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH THE SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS
BY SUNDAY. THIS WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA).
THE SCA COULD BE ISSUE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 74 85 / 50 50 30 30
STT 75 86 76 87 / 40 40 30 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST THU APR 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE HISPANOLA WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST INTO THE CENTRAL AMERICA ON SATURDAY.
A HIGH BUILDING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS IS BRINGING THE RETURN OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER PUERTO
RICO DURING THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
AFFECTING THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALSO
SHOWED A FEW STREAMERS DEVELOPING IN THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE SMALL
ISLANDS. ONE OF THEM FORMED DOWNSTREAM OF EL YUNQUE AND AFFECTED
SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAVE RANGED BETWEEN A QUARTER
TO AN INCH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FORM IN
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO UNTIL
SUNSET.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN EXPANDING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. SYNOPTIC MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REACH IT MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE
TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FAVOR THE EROSION OF THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PWAT MINIMA OF
AROUND 1.3 INCHES ON SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAP AROUND 850 MB. EXPECTING WEATHER CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND BECOME
MORE STABLE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AND LESS THAN NORMAL MOISTURE. FOR THE NEXT WEEK...UPPER THROUGH
WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION INCREASING THE MOISTURE AND THE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...AFTN SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PR WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFT 26/22Z
LEAVING MOSTLY VFR CONDS. EXPECT VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL DURG FCST PD
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT TAF
SITES OR ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. PREVAILING WIND WILL BE FROM
THE EAST FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS.
&&
.MARINE...THERE ARE NO MARINE RELATED ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. AS
NOTED ABOVE...WE EXPECT THE RETURN OF THE FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH THE SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS
BY SUNDAY. THIS WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA).
THE SCA COULD BE ISSUE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 74 85 / 50 50 30 30
STT 75 86 76 87 / 40 40 30 30
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Cooler than normal temperatures persist in Central America there was even a freeze in Quetzaltenango, Guatemala
, these are the observations for April 25 2012:
Minimum Temperatures
-Near normal in Panama. Cooler than normal in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Costa Rica.
Belize city, Belize 21°C (70°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 16.9°C (62.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 12.1°C (53.8°F) Coldest since March 17 2012
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala -1.8°C (28.8°F) Coldest since March 2 2012
Zacapa, Guatemala 18°C (64°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.2°C (61.2°F) Coldest since February 24 2012
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.7°C (49.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.5°C (70.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.9°C (60.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.7°C (42.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 17.1°C (62.8°F)
Maximum Temperatures
-Near normal in Nicaragua. Cooler than normal in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Costa Rica and Panama.
Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 28.4°C (83.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.5°C (70.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.6°C (85.3°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.0°C (66.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.8°C (94.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 20°C (68°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 16.1°C (61.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.3°C (91.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.8°C (89.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.8°C (73.0°F)

Minimum Temperatures
-Near normal in Panama. Cooler than normal in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Costa Rica.
Belize city, Belize 21°C (70°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 16.9°C (62.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 12.1°C (53.8°F) Coldest since March 17 2012
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala -1.8°C (28.8°F) Coldest since March 2 2012
Zacapa, Guatemala 18°C (64°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.2°C (61.2°F) Coldest since February 24 2012
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.7°C (49.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.5°C (70.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.9°C (60.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.7°C (42.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 17.1°C (62.8°F)
Maximum Temperatures
-Near normal in Nicaragua. Cooler than normal in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Costa Rica and Panama.
Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 28.4°C (83.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.5°C (70.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.6°C (85.3°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.0°C (66.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.8°C (94.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 20°C (68°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 16.1°C (61.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.3°C (91.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.8°C (89.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.8°C (73.0°F)
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145464
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Good morning. A good weekend weatherwise in PR,except fopr some showers in the interior and a few at nights.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 AM AST FRI APR 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST INTO CENTRAL AMERICA ON SATURDAY. A HIGH BUILDING NORTH
OF THE ISLANDS IS BRINGING THE RETURN OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...WITH SOME AFFECTING THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT DUE TO THE VELOCITY OF THE SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS GENERATED WIND GUST OF 23 MPH. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO MOVE
ON SHORE AND AFFECT THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE WRF MODEL IS SHOWING AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS COULD MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS
WINDS HAVE A SLIGHT NORTH EAST COMPONENT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL REESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE WEEKEND... RESULTING IN FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS. EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 27/18Z. FAST MOVING PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER TIST...TISX...AND TJSJ.
BETWEEN 27/18Z-27/22Z...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...INCREASING WINDS WILL GENERATE A SMALL CHOP ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET
THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 86 76 / 30 30 30 20
STT 86 76 87 77 / 30 30 30 20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 AM AST FRI APR 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST INTO CENTRAL AMERICA ON SATURDAY. A HIGH BUILDING NORTH
OF THE ISLANDS IS BRINGING THE RETURN OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...WITH SOME AFFECTING THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT DUE TO THE VELOCITY OF THE SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS GENERATED WIND GUST OF 23 MPH. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO MOVE
ON SHORE AND AFFECT THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE WRF MODEL IS SHOWING AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS COULD MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS
WINDS HAVE A SLIGHT NORTH EAST COMPONENT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL REESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE WEEKEND... RESULTING IN FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS. EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 27/18Z. FAST MOVING PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER TIST...TISX...AND TJSJ.
BETWEEN 27/18Z-27/22Z...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...INCREASING WINDS WILL GENERATE A SMALL CHOP ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET
THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 86 76 / 30 30 30 20
STT 86 76 87 77 / 30 30 30 20
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