Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Nothing like a big rain event is expected for PR in the next few days.Only some scattered showers in the afternoons and nights.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST FRI APR 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL
GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND A SECOND ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL FADE BUT CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS..HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LATE MONDAY
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
REINFORCE THE TRADE WIND PATTERN OVER THE AREA ALREADY IN PLACE.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEK AND INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES NORTH...
BRINGING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
BANDS OF MOISTURE PUNCTUATED BY A FEW DRIER AREAS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOIST EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUED OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A FEW SHOWERS FORMED AROUND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH PARTS OF
EASTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON MOST OF THE
SHOWERS HAD SHIFTED TO PUERTO RICO AND THE WATERS NORTH AND SOUTH
OF IT...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND AS IS TYPICAL FOR THE EASTERLY TRADE
WIND FLOW. EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH VARIATIONS IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. BANDS OF
MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS TO THE EAST AND
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST PRETTY MUCH
EVERY DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WHILE ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS IN SPORADIC
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. WHEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE NEXT WEEKEND...FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY...AND
SHOWERS WILL SHIFT INTO THE PATTERN SEEN MUCH OF THE FIRST PART OF
THIS WEEK...BEING HEAVIEST NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
EAST OF SAN JUAN.


&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES...HOWEVER
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND
TJBQ IN ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT
27/22Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...DUE TO RELATIVELY TIGHT GRADIENTS OVER THE AREA AND
CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...TRADE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 76 84 / 20 20 20 40
STT 75 86 77 87 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

The night update has a wet picture for PR for most of next week. Stay tuned.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
926 PM AST FRI APR 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION
THROUGH SUN THEN FLATTEN ON MON AS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL LIFTS OVER RIDGE AXIS. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO
MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVERNIGHT
AS HEIGHTS RISE UNDER STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
OVERALL...VERY NICE WEATHER TOMORROW WITH JUST ISOLD SHOWERS. A SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED SUN WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
HIGHER INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS BUT MOISTURE REMAINS
MINIMAL. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS FORECAST TO
LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVR THE NEXT 72 HRS WITH UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENING MON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AND THUS BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BROAD TROUGH WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLC WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PR.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK ATLC HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO TURN MORE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TIST...TNCM AND TKPK IN ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGH ABOUT 28/16Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KT OVERNIGHT AND
SAT AND POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN INTO MINIMAL SCA SAT NIGHT AND EARLY
SUN. SCEC WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MON WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN BOTH OFFSHORE ATLC AND CARIB WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 81 / 0 10 20 30
STT 77 79 77 79 / 10 10 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning.As I said last night,it looks like next week for the most part will be a rather wet one for PR and adjacent islands so stay tuned for more information.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 AM AST SAT APR 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION
THROUGH SUN THEN FLATTEN ON MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL LIFTS OVER RIDGE AXIS. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL INTO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS BRUSHED THE NORTHERN COAST OF
PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITHOUT GENERATING ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. MORE OF THESE SHOWERS COULD
MOVE ON SHORE AND AFFECT THE NORTHEAST COASTAL REGION THROUGH MID
MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART OF
THE MORNING HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. THIS ARE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE USVI BEFORE MID MORNING...GENERATING A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE AREA
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO BEFORE NOON.
LINGERING MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA
BREEZE WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS FORECAST TO
LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS WITH UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENING ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY
TO INCREASE AND THEREFORE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 28/18Z. BETWEEN 28/18Z-28/22Z...PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ
SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN COASTAL AREAS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KT TODAY AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASING ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 10
STT 79 77 79 77 / 20 40 40 10

[cycloneye]

A complete and well explained discussion about what to expect next week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
328 PM AST SAT APR 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA WILL SLOWLY DECAY AS IT MOVES EAST. WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL CROSS THROUGH FROM THE WEST...ONE ON MONDAY EVENING
AND ONE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. EACH TROUGH WILL BE PRECEDED BY A NOMINAL
INCREASE IN WINDS.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUES AFTER THAT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC. MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS
RECOVERS SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES AT MODEST LEVELS
INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DRIVING THE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL NOT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL
LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE SEIZES CONTROL OF THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND SPLITS THE NORMAL SUB TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH IN TWO. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY NEXT WEEKEND AND
NORTH COAST TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IF MODEL SOLUTIONS HOLD.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS DID DEVELOP IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN
SPITE OF THE DRIER AIR THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST AS
NOTED IN THE TPW MIMIC PRODUCT. SOME SHOWERS HAVE ALSO CONTINUED
IN THE LOCAL NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND JUST BEYOND. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT MODEL FORECASTS OF BETTER SHOWERS WILL VERIFY
LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A BAND OF CLOUDS WAS OBSERVED
APPROACHING AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST. NEVERTHELESS THE POPS
FORECASTS HAD TO BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT FROM MODEL SOLUTIONS DUE TO
THE DRIER AIR. FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS WILL BE EAST NORTHEAST OR EAST
FOR A QUITE A WHILE UNTIL LOW PRESSURE DISPLACES THE HIGH IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK. MINIMAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE IN THE USUAL PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL AT
LEAST TUESDAY. BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA AT MID LEVELS
THEN BUT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME ONLY SCATTERED WITH SOME
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE USUAL CONVERGENCE PATTERNS OVER
THE ISLAND. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DECREASE SLOWLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...WITH VERY LIMITED WINDS OVER
THAT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF
SITES...HOWEVER BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND TJMZ IN ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
ABOUT 28/22Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME MORE TRANQUIL THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. BUOY 41043 SHOWED 7 FOOT SEAS AS OF 2 PM AST AND WINDS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD THESE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 76 85 / 30 30 30 20
STT 76 86 77 86 / 30 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

The night update continue to confirm the more rainy period starting by mid week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
831 PM AST SAT APR 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH SUN THEN BREAK
DOWN ON MON AS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LIFTS OVER
TOP OF IT. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL WEAKEN TUE THROUGH THU.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE OVR THE AREA AS
SEEN ON A 2320Z SJU ACARS SOUNDING. THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO BREAK
UNTIL MON WHEN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN WILL LIFT OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOMORROW DEEP CONVECTION
DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.

BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL APPEAR ON TAP MID WEEK WHEN PRES
GRADIENT IS FCST TO RELAX AND WINDS DECREASE ALLOWING FOR BETTER
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE BECOMES DEEPER NEXT WEEKEND IN A MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF
SITES. ISOLATED QUICK PASSING SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE USVI
AND BVI IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO EAST
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS...SHIFTING TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION AFTER 29/12Z. CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE AFTER 29/16Z
CAUSING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PUERTO RICO.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD LATE TONIGHT AS WIND PICK UP A
BIT MORE AND EASTERLY FETCH INCREASES. LOOKS LIKE SEAS WILL PEAK
SUN AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH MON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 76 87 / 0 20 20 30
STT 76 86 76 86 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST SUN APR 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATER TODAY THEN
BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LIFTS
OVER TOP OF IT. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL WEAKEN TUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW BRUSHING THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN MINIMAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY DUE THE QUICK
MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS.

AFTER MID WEEK CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS
TO OCCUR AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX AND WINDS DECREASE
ALLOWING FOR BETTER AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY AND HELP
FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE BECOMES DEEPER NEXT
WEEKEND IN A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED QUICK PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE USVI
AND EASTERN PR THIS MORNING. BRIEFLY MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR WITH THE
SHRA. WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS. CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE AFTER 29/16Z
CAUSING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PUERTO RICO...WITH SOME SHRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ THROUGH 29/21Z.

&&

.MARINE....SEAS ARE FORCE AST BUILD LATER TODAY AS WIND ARE
EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT OR WILL BE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR OUR LOCAL WATERS DUE TO
STRONG WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 85 74 / 50 20 30 30
STT 85 75 86 77 / 50 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST SUN APR 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE
EAST AND FLATTEN OUT ALLOWING SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS TO PASS...ONE
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND ONE ON SATURDAY PRECEDED BY A MODEST JET ON
FRIDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
NEXT WEEKEND. BETTER MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS IS STILL EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE MID WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WHEN LOW
PRESSURE FORMS BEHIND IT A RIDGE WILL BE LEFT ALONG 30 DEGREES
NORTH THAT WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. THE TWO MAIN MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT AFTER FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE MORE PREVALENT OVER PUERTO RICO AND
IN THE WATERS AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS MOISTURE LEVELS
WERE BETTER THAN YESTERDAY. THE MIMIC PRODUCT HAS NOT BEEN
AVAILABLE SINCE FRIDAY...BUT THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWED A BAND
OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER LOCAL WATERS AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDE
OF PUERTO RICO...EVEN AS THIS MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
THERE IS ANOTHER BAND WHICH WILL PASS OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP
SHOWERS SCATTERED. OTHERWISE MODELS DO NOT INDICATE CONDITIONS
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE TO ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON WEDNESDAY MID LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES
AND WINDS DIMINISH ON THURSDAY MAKING CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE TO
SHOWERS.

IN THE LONG RANGE...THE GFS IS HAVING TROUBLE FINDING A WORKABLE
SOLUTION FRIDAY AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE GFS BEGINS DEVELOPING A LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IN CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. UNFORTUNATELY THESE SCENARIOS EACH
DEVELOP VERY DIFFERENT WINDS FOR PUERTO RICO WHICH WOULD CHANGE
THE RAINFALL PATTERNS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT A SOLUTION LESS EXTREME
THAN EITHER WITH EAST NORTHEAST OR EAST WINDS AND A FAIRLY
CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND. NEITHER SOLUTION WOULD BRING
ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED...LOCALLY HEAVY...SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST AND TISX
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
TJMZ IN SHRA/TSRA BTW 29/18Z AND 29/22Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 74 85 / 30 30 30 30
STT 76 86 76 87 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST MON APR 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST
SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALLOWING BAND OF WESTERLIES
TO DIP DOWN ACROSS FA...BUT SIGNIFICANT TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE
WEST NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GIVEN WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
ENCROACHING WESTERLIES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXPECT SOME
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...AS LOCAL EFFECTS
COMBINE WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE AND WESTERLY
VENTILATION. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ASIDE
FROM BRIEF RIDGING FOR THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH APPROACHES AND EXPECT LOCAL
EFFECTS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH THIS TROUGHINESS TO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 30/17Z. QUICK PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TISX/TIST
AND TJSJ THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON SHRA/ISOLD TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND TJMZ BTWN 30/17Z AND 30/21Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR
PR. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...BASED ON THE LATEST BUOY AND MODEL DATA...DECIDED TO
CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ROUGH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 86 76 / 50 10 10 10
STT 85 76 87 77 / 30 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
245 PM AST MON APR 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED CAP WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WETTER/MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
LOCAL WEATHER REGIME THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW...STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF
LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...BETTER SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WIND FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE OF THE WORK WEEK. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL STATIONS...BUT BRIEF
MVFR FOR CIGS/VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT TJMZ...TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH 01/02Z
AND ONLY THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AFTERWARD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE 10 TO 20
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE TIL 01/02Z...AFT 02Z WINDS WILL
BECOME EAST 5 TO 15 KT UP THROUGH 12 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6
FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 76 85 / 20 20 40 40
STT 76 87 77 86 / 10 10 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
950 PM AST MON APR 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
STRONG SFC HIGH NORTH OF THE REGION WILL WEAKEN MID WEEK WITH
TRADE WINDS DIMINISHING THU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BROAD LOW PRES
FCST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS OVR THE WEEKEND AND LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS FOLLOWED BY A
SHARP INCREASE IN MOISTURE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS A SFC TROF MOVES
WWD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SVRL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE
ACROSS THE AREA AROUND BASE OF DEEP CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE ATLC.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY THU-SUN. MOST ACTIVITY WILL
CONCENTRATE NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA AND BE VERY SLOW MOVER WITH
ACTIVITY SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE FROM THE WEST OR WEST
SOUTHWEST. SOUTH COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
STEERING WINDS. SOME DRYING IS SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WITH DEEP MOISTURE GETTING SHUNTED EWD
INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJMZ BETWEEN 01/16Z AND 01/23Z
WHERE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE....IN ADDITION THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FROM THE
EAST NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AND
INCREASING TO ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER 01/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15-20 KT THROUGH WED THEN
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THU THROUGH SAT. SEAS UP TO 6 FT THROUGH WED
THEN DIMINISH TO 4 FT OR LESS. TSTMS WILL BECOME THE MAIN HAZARD
LATER IN THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 85 / 10 10 30 60
STT 77 78 77 79 / 10 10 70 70

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Folks in the Eastern Caribbean will have to prepare for a rainy period in the next few days so stay tuned for the latest information that will be posted here.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST TUE MAY 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALLOWING BAND OF WESTERLIES TO DIP DOWN
ACROSS FA...BUT STILL EXPECT FIRST MAIN TROUGH TO REMAIN JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS IT LIFTS GENERALLY EAST TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND PROBABLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SECOND AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME LOCATED
JUST WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GIVEN FLATTENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
ENCROACHING WESTERLIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ACTIVE. FOR TODAY...MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...TODAY MAY END UP BEING THE BEST WEATHER DAY
OF THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS. FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AN IMPRESSIVE
SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE FA FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST...
WITH VERY GOOD 850MB-700MB THETA E ADVECTION. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL
OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS
TIME...AS LOCAL EFFECTS AND WESTERLY VENTILATION COMBINE WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE.

THIS MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY IS NOW FORECAST BY THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...TO GENERALLY LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLY SOME
SLIGHT MOISTURE REDUCTION SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE AGAIN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS AFOREMENTIONED SIGNIFICANT TROUGHINESS
GRADUALLY DIGS AND ALIGNS TO THE WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA DURING THIS TIME...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STUCK
ACROSS THE FA WILL SPELL TROUBLE...AS LOCAL EFFECTS COMBINE WITH
THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS...TO PRODUCE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT...BUT THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS PREVIOUS SCENARIOS LIKE THIS HAVE
RESULTED IN AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND SOME FLOODING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY...
EXCEPT TJMZ WHERE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BTWN
01/18Z AND 01/21Z. THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE TEMPO
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR. LLVL
WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS. HIGHER
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE AFTER 01/12Z AND NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LOCALLY ROUGH FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 86 74 / 10 30 60 70
STT 78 75 79 76 / 10 70 70 70

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. Is a done deal the rainy weather that is expected for the Eastern Caribbean in the next few days,so stay tuned to this thread for all the information regarding this upcomming rain event.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
241 PM AST TUE MAY 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN
TONIGHT...INDUCING A WESTERLY/ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE FA
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...INDUCING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED ONLY FEW
SMALL AREAS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS WESTERN AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. AT THE SAME TIME...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND NORTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS.
THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE...EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW PRODUCING CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN
FACT...PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 1.50 INCHES OR LESS TODAY
TO 2.00 INCHES OR EVEN MORE FROM WEDNESDAY THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY.
LATEST MODEL DATA ALSO INDICATED THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS FEATURE WILL THEN MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A RATHER
ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THIS
PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS PREVIOUS
SCENARIOS LIKE THIS HAVE RESULTED IN AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AND SOME FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS IS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURG
NXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER BTW 01/18Z-01/22Z SHRA/ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPMENT
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND PARTS OF WRN SECTIONS OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PR. THIS MAY LEAD TO TEMPO MVFR IN LOW CIG/VIS
AS WELL AS MTN TOP OBSCR ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR. SFC WNDS
WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE EAST AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL REGIONS AND ACCOMPANYING PASSING SHRA/ISOLD
TSRA. FM 02/03Z-02/12Z PASSING SHRA/LOW LVL CLDS MAY LEAD TO TEMPO
MVFR EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND NRN LEEWARDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 75 84 / 30 60 70 70
STT 76 84 76 84 / 70 70 70 70

[msbee]

Thanks for the update Luis
We have had cloudy skies all day. It's breezy and cool (78 F)
I haven't had any rain at my house but apparently on the other side of the island they had a few heavy rain showers.

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert is up in Guadeloupe for a risk of strong showers and thunderstorms given our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe.

[Gustywind]

METEO. Guadeloupe in yellow for heavy rains and thunderstorms

franceantilles.fr01.05.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 168343.php

A moist and unstable air mass slowly through the Caribbean arc, causing numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. If the great Earth had been relatively spared today, rollups of 50 to 60 litres of water per m2 have been recorded this afternoon on the North of Basse-Terre, as well as on the udder. South of the low-Earth has also been affected with 40 litres of water per m2 raised to three rivers.
A lull occurred in evening and first part of night, with a little more rare showers. Rain are gradually returning before sunrise of the day, and then are more marked tomorrow morning. Thunderstorms are also possible. The bad weather, with a risk of showers locally supported, continues until at least Sunday.
Many rains these days make the waterlogged soils. Overflows are possible in case of heavy showers or rain extended on the same area.

[cycloneye]

Is the first time that the San Juan NWS puts this graphic on the front page of their site.



http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/

[cycloneye]

Updated discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1016 PM AST TUE MAY 1 2012

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. THERE IS ABUNDANT
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND IT IS APPROACHING
THE AREA. THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
CLOSER TO OUR LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. COMPUTER
MODELS INSIST IN DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM WEDNESDAY UNTIL AT
LEAST FRIDAY...THURSDAY BEING THE DAY WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. THE 02/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AT THE LOCAL AREA. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING OVER 2.2
INCHES ON THURSDAY...CURRENTLY HOWEVER...BLENDED SATELLITE TPW
IMAGERY IS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF OVER 2.4 INCHES TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER
THE USVI AND THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. No changes to the rainy forecast for the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
509 AM AST WED MAY 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MEANDER OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR SUBTROPICAL JET TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
LATER IN THE WEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STARTING LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SET UP
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THURSDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO GET
DRAWN ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE INDICATING PRECIPITABLE VALUES ABOVE 2.2 INCHES ON THURSDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT INTENSE AND SLOW
MOVING SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. LOCAL 2KM
WRF MODEL SHOWED THE STRONGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
PATTERN...AS PREVIOUS SCENARIOS LIKE THIS HAVE RESULTED IN AREAS
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND SOME FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT MOST TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. HOWEVER...MORE FREQUENT THAN NORMAL MVFR...AND EVEN LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LOCALLY ROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 84 75 / 70 60 70 40
STT 84 75 84 75 / 60 60 70 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1040 AM AST WED MAY 2 2012

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO EARLY MORNING PACKAGE...AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST...MOST ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS IN THE FORM OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE
SOME SHOWERS...HERE AND THERE WITH DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY.

[cycloneye]

Note=I was not here in the past 6 hours because I lost power here in my area.But I am back and here is this afternoon's discussion that continues to forecast very rainy conditions for the next 24-48 hours.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST WED MAY 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID/UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE
EASTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH PATTERN
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SUBTROPICAL JET TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER IN THE WEEK. AA LOW LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS
THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RESULTING IN EVEN MORE
CLOUDINESS...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PUERTO RICO TODAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WERE STRONG WITH VERY
FREQUENT AND INTENSE LIGHTNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA
AND NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO OBSERVED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BUT WERE NOT AS INTENSE. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE HAS INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND ALSO THE OVERALL
INSTABILITY...WHICH CAUSED THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THIS
ACTIVITY.

COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE INSISTING IN EVEN MORE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR THURSDAY. THEREFORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST
FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PUERTO RICO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT TJSJ...TJMZ AND TIST DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS AND
SHOWERS. VCTS ARE LIKELY FOR TJMZ AS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF TJMZ. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY DUE
TO THICK CLOUD COVER AND SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AFTER
03/00Z LEAVING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH PASSING SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDS WITH SHRA/TSRA ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED FOR PR AND USVI AFTER
03/16Z.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE UP TO 6 FEET TONIGHT...IMPROVING ON THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 76 85 / 60 70 40 50
STT 75 84 75 85 / 60 70 50 50