Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1001 PM AST WED MAY 2 2012

.UPDATE...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE
ONSHORE AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A FEW OF
THESE SHOWERS AREA AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND. GENERATING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS
OF OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA. ON THURSDAY WILL VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED TODAY...WITH MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. ON FRIDAY...WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...THIS WILL HELP LARGER AMOUNTS
OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER AREAS WITH SATURATED SOILS...
THEREFORE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF FLASH FLOODING

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The most active rainy day is today, if the power doesn't go like yesterday,I will be posting the flood advisories and news about the flooding.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
643 AM AST THU MAY 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS FROM TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BROAD LOW LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MID/UPPER TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS AT
LEAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH HAVE BEGUN TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WERE OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
RANGED BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO DETERIORATE AND BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATER TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY AS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH COMBINES WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LIGHT
STEERING FLOW TO RESULT IN INTENSE AND SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH...THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SHOWED THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...NORTH AND
WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...THE CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EVERYWHERE. SOILS ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO AND
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE SATURATED...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
AGGRAVATED THE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...AND RIVERS
WILL REACT QUICKLY TO NEW RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AS A RESULT..A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND FOR ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL...THERE WILL BE MUCH MORE FREQUENT THAN NORMAL
MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...WITH INTERVALS OF IFR
CONDITIONS...IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
LOCALLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND
THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...AND THEN FOCUSED
ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE UP TO 6 FEET TODAY. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 85 74 / 70 50 50 40
STT 82 74 85 76 / 70 50 50 40

[Jimsot]

First Quarter 2012 Rainfull Amounts ANGUILLA Southeast coast.

January......3.75
February.....1.55
March.........1.4
April...........2.01

A very dry March but May looks to be making up for it rather quickly!

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. The rainy conditions will be with us at least until Sunday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST THU MAY 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BROAD LOW LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MID/UPPER TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
HELP TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS AT LEAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THE AREA MOST
AFFECTED WAS AN AREA FROM VEGA BAJA WES TOWARD THE WEST COAST.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 2 INCHES WERE REPORTED BY RAIN
GAGES AND RADAR ESTIMATES. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED WITH
TIME...MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SAME AREAS.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOILS SATURATED.

UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND.
GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE. ON FRIDAY...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY...THIS WILL HELP LARGER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER AREAS WITH SATURATED SOILS... THEREFORE
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF FLASH FLOODING

SOILS ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE
SATURATED...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL AGGRAVATED THE MUDSLIDES
IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...AND RIVERS WILL REACT QUICKLY TO NEW
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AS A RESULT..A FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES...AND FOR ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA CONT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE ISLANDS
ALONG WITH SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY NORTH HALF PR AND
USVI. MULTI-LYRD CLDS GRADUALLY DECR OVER LAND TONITE BUT CONT OVER
OCEAN AREAS. TAF SITES MAINLY VFR BUT OCNL MVFR NEAR SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS TO VRBL TO FL150 LESS THAN 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
INCOMING WEEKEND. THE MAJOR HAZARD FOR MARINERS WILL THE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 74 84 / 50 50 40 50
STT 74 85 76 84 / 50 50 40 40

[msbee]

St. Maarten:..LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY..

..BOATERS ARE ADVISED TO PROCEED WITH CAUTION OVER OPEN WATERS..
Weather:
Today and Friday: Generally mostly cloudy with scattered showers and locally a couple of thunderstorms. Some of the rain will be heavy at times.

Forecast high for today will be 29 ºC, 84 ºF. and low 24 ºC, 75 ºF.
Sunrise will occur at 05:43 A.M. and sunset at 06:34 P.M.

Winds:
Today and Friday: Easterly and gentle to moderate with 8 to 16 miles per hour. Gusting occasionally in or near showers.

Synopsis:
A developing low level disturbance over the eastern Caribbean will cause the winds over our region to weaken further during the next few days. In combination with the present humid air flow, this will lead to warm and muggy conditions. Furthermore, atmospheric conditions remain favorable for cloud development and are likely to lead to the development of numerous showers over our islands and the surrounding waters. Since winds are expected to weaken further during the upcoming weekend, shower activity is expected to be heavy and slow moving. A Heavy Rainfall Watch or Warning may be required if conditions warrant. Otherwise, the winds of the last couple of days will continue to weaken further and sea conditions will continue to improve.

Sea conditions: Moderate. Over the onshore waters, 3 to 4 feet waves. Over the Atlantic waters, to about 6 feet waves.

[msbee]

UPDATE:

SPECIAL BULLETIN NO. 1
Date: Thursday, May 3, 2012 Time: 5:30 P.M.

.A HEAVY RAINFALL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN, SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS UNTIL FRIDAY 6 P.M..

A heavy rainfall watch is in effect until 6 P.M. Friday for St. Maarten, Saba and St. Eustatius. Heavy showers leading to local flooding are possible over sections of the islands.
This watch may be upgraded to an advisory or warning in case conditions warrant. See definitions for watch, advisory or warning farther below.

Residents are urged to avoid driving in flooded streets until the heavy rain has tapered off or ended and the flood waters have subsided.
In case there are lightning strikes very close to your location (loud thunder, less than three seconds between lightning discharge and thunder), switch off and disconnect any sensitive electronic equipment. Also disconnect any phone line from your computer.

Definitions:
A Special Bulletin is issued for weather events that are unusual, cause general inconvenience or public concern (requiring the attention and action of fire department and police authorities) and cannot adequately be described in a regular weather forecast.
A Heavy Rainfall Watch is an announcement when heavy rainfall is evident within the following hours.
A Heavy Rainfall Advisory is an announcement when heavy rains are about to occur or occurring already, but are not strong enough to require a warning .
A Heavy Rainfall Warning is an announcement when heavy rains are about to occur or are occurring already.

[msbee]

heavy rain here for hours now. flooding all over the island
my rain gauge shows 3 inches of rain...since about 5 PM
and its still raining hard!
yes, i went out in this weather to check it.

[cycloneye]

heavy rain here for hours now. flooding all over the island
my rain gauge shows 3 inches of rain...since about 5 PM
and its still raining hard!
yes, i went out in this weather to check it.

Wow. Be careful there Barbara and hopefully,this trough goes away soon to return to the good weather pattern that the islands normally enjoy.

[msbee]

Thanks Luis
I am safe and sound at home..not going out in this.

I saw on a SXM tourist board that someone posted this:
"RAining like I've never seen it on the island....left Mark's and streets are flooded. Street in front of the Atrium is at least 3 feet deep!!! Cars floating down the street. Rocks and trash in the water. What a mess!!!!"

It must be bad out there!

[cycloneye]

Here is the updated discussion by the San Juan NWS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
929 PM AST THU MAY 3 2012

.UPDATE...LATEST RADAR IMAGES THIS EVENING DEPICTED AREAS OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. HOWEVER...LIMITED SHOWERS ACTIVITY WAS
DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WILL COMBINE
TOMORROW WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE AGAIN A
NEW ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOILS ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
ARE SATURATED AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL AGGRAVATED THE
MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...AND RIVERS WILL REACT QUICKLY
TO NEW RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AS A RESULT..A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES...AND FOR ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING.

[Macrocane]

Take care and stay dry in the islands.

May has started and the maximum temperatures will get cooler in most of Central America as it's the first month of the rainy season, in the other hand the minimum temps are getting warmer, actually May is the month with the warmest lows in the year.

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Near normal in Guatemala, Costa Rica and Panama. Cooler than normal in Honduras.

Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.6°C (69.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16.8°C (62.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.2°C (48.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 21.1°C (70.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.4°C (54.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 24.4°C (75.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F) Warmest since August 11 2011
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.4°C (65.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.0°C (42.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.0°C (73.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.7°C (74.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.1°C (61.0°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Guatemala and Nicaragua. Near normal in Belize, El Salvador, Honduras and Costa Rica. Cooler than normal in Panama.

Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 32.3°C (90.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 28.0°C (82.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 38°C (100°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.3°C (86.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.4°C (70.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.7°C (96.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.0°C (84.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 16.6°C (61.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 35.3°C (95.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.7°C (89.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 23.6°C (74.5°F)

[msbee]

Rain has stopped for now.
Schools will be closed tomorrow so that cleanup up of the roads can take place.
A friend posted this pic on Facebook.Of a street in Marigot on the French side

[cycloneye]

Good morning. More rain is expected mainly in the afternoon and evening hours in PR and that is why,the flash flood watch remains in effect.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
446 AM AST FRI MAY 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...OUR FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE AT LOW
LEVELS...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS A SHEAR LINE CONFLUENCE MEANDERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND A
LIGHT STEERING FLOW TO RESULT IN INTENSE AND SLOW MOVING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. DUE TO
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...PROLONGED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS
WELL AS INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING. AS A
RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM AST
THIS EVENING. A GRADUAL EROSION OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE
ONCE AGAIN WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
RANGE AND MOVE GENERALLY EASTWARD AROUND 10 KNOTS. THESE MAY IMPACT
JSJ LATE IN THE DAY AND ST. THOMAS AT NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
BY. CAN`T RULED OUT A POP UP TSRA AT ST. CROIX LATER TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING. BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE AT LEEWARD ISLANDS
TERMINALS. CHANCES AT JBQ AND JMZ TOO SLIM TO MENTION ANYTHING DUE
TO UNFAVORABLE STEERING WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND A GENTLE TO MODERATE
WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 84 76 / 60 20 50 40
STT 84 75 84 75 / 40 40 40 40

[msbee]

CROWNWEATHER states this morning:

Heavy Rain With Flash Flooding Will Continue Across The Northeastern & Eastern Caribbean:
An upper level trough of low pressure currently located over the western Atlantic will combine with copious amounts of deep tropical moisture and continue to produce slow moving very heavy showers and thunderstorms from today through at least Sunday from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through much of the Leeward and northern Windward Islands. The heaviest showers and thunderstorms are expected to occur during the afternoon hours of today, Saturday and Sunday. Flash flooding of streams, creeks and rivers are likely.

The heavy rain threat is currently forecast to decrease across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by later Monday, however, a renewed threat for heavy rainfall is forecast from Anguilla and Antigua southward to Martinique and Saint Lucia by later Monday and Tuesday and then potentially again by next Friday as areas of low pressure develop over the eastern Caribbean and track northeastward.

[msbee]

Good morning
The sun is shining this morning but we are still under a heavy rainfall watch.

http://www.thedailyherald.com/islands/1 ... rged-.html

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest from the San Juan NWS.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1139 AM AST FRI MAY 4 2012

.UPDATE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO GRIDS/FORECASTS WITH TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY OVER CHANGES IN MODELS AND WEAK WIND FLOWS CURRENTLY
OVER ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION STARTED UP SHORTLY BEFORE 10AM ON AN APPARENT
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS PR...SLOWED
DEVELOPMENT AND CURRENTLY INCREASING AGAIN ON THE SOUTHEAST PR MOUNTAINS.
ENOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS TODAY TO MAKE FLOODING A CONCERN
THOUGH IT IS DECREASING...DUE IN PART TO MID-LEVEL DRYING FROM THE
WEST. BOTH LOW AND HIGH LEVEL WINDS ARE RATHER AMBIGUOUS REGARDING
CONVERGENT/DIVERGENT FLOWS BUT THE JET SEEMS TO BE IN THE RIGHT PLACE
TO INCREASE CONVECTION. NAM SHOWS STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER
THE CENTRAL CORDILLERA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE
YET ITS QPF IS LESS THAN A HALF INCH. EVEN WRF IS DECREASING ITS
NORMALLY MUCH TOO HIGH QPF.

[cycloneye]

The afternoon discussion brings more of the same,but the focus area of precipitation will change due to the wind direction change that is expected.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST FRI MAY 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...THE LOCAL REGION WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED OVER THE SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS
DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THEM...GENERATING RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AS
STEERING WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD A MORE NORTHEAST COMPONENT.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR TO CONT EXCEPT MVFR IN A FEW SHRA/TSRA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE
BELOW FL120 AT LESS THAN 15 KTS BUT INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS ABOVE.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SMALL. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE NWS FORECAST AND LOCAL MARINE
PRODUCTS AS HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 84 75 / 60 20 50 40
STT 84 75 84 75 / 40 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

Here is the excerpt from the Flash Flood Watch that was extended until Saturday afternoon that you can read in it's entierly at the 2012 flood advisories thread.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN INDUCED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS BROAD TROUGHINESS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES AND LOCAL REGION WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH...THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY FORCING TO GENERATE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LATE
EVENING HOURS OVER LAND. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO
RICO...THEN DRIFT GENERALLY EASTWARD AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. IN
ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AT ANY
TIME ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY AND
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THIS ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY... THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF
LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR
WHICH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL
STREAMS... RIVERS AND DRY GUTS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOST OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING
IN MOST PLACES OVER PUERTO RICO...BUT SOME MAY LINGER A BIT
LONGER AROUND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
ALTHOUGH THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH AT TIMES...RUNOFF FROM
RECENT RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS UNDER THE WATCH...AND
RIVERS AND STREAM WILL REMAIN AT DANGEROUSLY HIGH LEVELS.
ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION...AND
MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. FOR THIS REASON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

[cycloneye]

Updated nightime discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1053 PM AST FRI MAY 4 2012

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT HAD OCCURRED
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND MOST OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS QUICKLY MOVED
OFFSHORE OR DISSIPATED DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...LEAVING
VARIABLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AS WELL AS LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGESTS THAT BROAD MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY LOW/LEVEL TROUGH...WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL HOWEVER EXTEND FURTHER NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN INTO THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LOW LEVEL WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE STEERING FLOW FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH...
ACTIVITY HAVE TAPERED OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS...STILL EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
AND WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.
ON SATURDAY EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
AS AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
WILL BE ENHANCED DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN AT HIGH LEVELS IN SOME
AREAS AND THE SOIL REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED IN MOST AREAS. THEREFORE
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL QUICKLY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED
AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PENDING FURTHER REVISION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
THE INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS FOR NOW.

[Macrocane]

Temperatures for May 4 2012 in Central America:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize and Honduras. Near normal in Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Cooler than normal in Panama.

Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16.7°C (62.1°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 4.5°C (40.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.6°C (69.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.0°C (51.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 25.7°C (78.3°F) WARMEST SINCE MAY 6 2011
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 20°C (68°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 16°C (61°F) Warmest since October 18 2011
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.3°C (64.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.7°C (44.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.6°C (60.1°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Guatemala and Nicaragua. Near normal in Belize, Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama. Cooler than normal in El Salvador.

Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 31.3°C (88.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 28.0°C (82.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.1°C (73.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 38°C (100°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.8°C (85.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.8°C (71.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.6°C (96.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 36°C (97°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.5°C (85.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 10.7°C (51.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 35.0°C (95.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.5°C (92.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 25.8°C (78.4°F)