2012 SE TX/SW LA Weather:Cold/cool week.

[Jagno]

Looks like we are going to see a significant rain and wind event once more beginning big time this evening and tonight as well as tomorrow. Thankfully tornadoes won't be as widespread or numbering over 120 as we've seen today in our heartland. My heartfelt prayers go out to all of them in the affected areas. Flood warnings are still up along with high wind advisories. This makes driving an SUV so much fun on the interstate. Stay safe everyone and please stay out of the flooded areas. Snakes have been plentiful this spring so far and floodwaters are their super highways.

[jasons2k]

Keep an eye out today - the dryline/front is still out in the Hill Country and moving this way. We will have plenty of time for daytime heating with this one. It sure is windy too!

[southerngale]

Radar is looking rather unimpressive. I'm beginning to wonder if we'll see much rain. Not that we really need it...

[Ptarmigan]

Should be an interesting night.

[Jagno]

What a tremendous difference following the rains of the past few days. It was downright beautiful this afternoon with much low humidity and cooler temperatures. Tonight it's even somewhat unseasonably chilly, by Cajun standards of course. Enjoy it while you can because it looks like we are in line for another round of storms Friday and Saturday.

[southerngale]

It's pretty bad here. The wind is very gusty and the rain has been coming down sideways. Stuff is blowing around, including my basketball goal, which took a little trip.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC199-241-245-351-361-457-202300-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0040.120420T2231Z-120420T2300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
531 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...SILSBEE...LUMBERTON...
SOUTHERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...KIRBYVILLE...EVADALE...BUNA...
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...DEWEYVILLE...CALL...
NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...VIDOR...MAURICEVILLE...
SOUTHEASTERN TYLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES FRED...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 530 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...FROM 11 MILES NORTH
OF FRED TO 8 MILES WEST OF VIDOR...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
EVADALE BY 535 PM CDT...
MAGNOLIA SPRINGS...VIDOR...PINE FOREST AND MT. UNION BY 540 PM
CDT...
BUNA BY 550 PM CDT...
KIRBYVILLE AND GIST BY 555 PM CDT...
WRIGHTS SETTLEMENT AND MAURICEVILLE BY 600 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN. STAY INDOORS...
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

WINDS WERE RECENTLY REPORTED GUSTING TO 55 MPH IN LUMBERTON.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

&&

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
337-477-5285 EXTENSION 1.

LAT...LON 3075 9420 3077 9373 3039 9375 3034 9377
3034 9376 3034 9375 3014 9376 3012 9421
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 268DEG 26KT 3073 9412 3016 9410

$$
TINGLER



-------------------------




Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
526 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

LAZ030-041-073-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-202315-
HARDIN TX-NORTHERN JASPER TX-NORTHERN NEWTON TX-TYLER TX-JEFFERSON TX-
BEAUREGARD LA-CALCASIEU LA-ORANGE TX-SOUTHERN JASPER TX-
SOUTHERN NEWTON TX-WEST CAMERON LA-
526 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARDIN...JASPER...NEWTON...
TYLER...JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU AND CAMERON PARISHES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 522 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM TOWN BLUFF
TO SILSBEE TO 13 MILES SOUTH OF HAMSHIRE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
WEISS BLUFF...MT. UNION...MAGNOLIA SPRINGS AND EVADALE BY 535 PM...
ROSE CITY AND PINE FOREST BY 540 PM...
ROGANVILLE...SOUTHEAST TEXAS REGIONAL AIRPORT...PORT ACRES AND
VIDOR BY 545 PM...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PEA TO
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN
TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A
SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM FRIDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2988 9436 2988 9440 3091 9425 3092 9355
3088 9358 3087 9345 2975 9358 2972 9376
2966 9386 2967 9403 2956 9435

$$
TINGLER

[vbhoutex]

We had winds to 44mph here at the house and have had close to an inch of rain. It was dicey for a while, but it didn't last long here. However, the rain just ended about 20 minutes ago. We had a second round come in after the initial more intense one. Looking forward to a very nice weekend now.

[vbhoutex]

51F yesterday and today for morning lows. Very cool for us for this time of year. Not complaining though, the highs are around 80f with cloudless skies. Can't ask for much more in the way of BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.

[Jagno]

Today was beautiful although somewhat windy. This afternoon I was quite suprised when I went out to mow the lawn and it had turned into a fairly chilly breeze. A big change from our daytime high. Hope everyone has a great weekend.

[Jagno]

Ladies and Gentlemen get your anti perspirant on because it looks like summer is upon us despite what the calendar says. This mornings extended forecast looks to be a photo copy for the next 7-10 days with hot and humid. It's 8:30 am and the humidity is still hovering around 94%. This gives a whole new meaning to sticky. LOL I hope everyone has a great weekend.

[wxman57]

Finally! It's time to celebrate the arrival of my favorite time of year.

[vbhoutex]

Finally! It's time to celebrate the arrival of my favorite time of year.

[vbhoutex]

This mornings email from Jeff Lindner:

Increasing Thunderstorm Chances‏

8:19 AM

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase from this afternoon through the end of the week.

Quite upper level pattern for the past several weeks dominated by high pressure aloft has been transitioning to a more active pattern since last Friday. Ridging over SE TX is losing ground with the thermal profile improving aloft as the mid level capping which has kept convection at bay for the past several weeks weakens.

At the surface a fairly chaotic pattern is in play with numerous outflow boundaries from overnight thunderstorm complexes to our northwest moving toward/into the area. Additionally, there is likely a few boundaries leftover from the late afternoon storms yesterday over the northern portions of our area and the water vapor and IR images show a series of gravity waves moving SSW to S across central and SC TX this morning. On top of all of this, there is a moderately defined meso vorticity center (MVC) located upstream of the area over N TX from the overnight storm complex and a cold front over NW TX moving SE. Air mass across the region will become very unstable by mid afternoon due to surface heating with SB CAPE pushing into the 3000-3500 J/kg range and LI’s falling into the -2 to -4 range. Convective trigger temperatures have decreased from the 89-92 degree range yesterday into the 86-89 degree range for today based on the forecasted soundings for late this afternoon at College Station and IAH. Once trigger temperatures are achieved, expect thunderstorms to begin to develop along old boundaries and ahead/near SE moving N TX MVC. Lowest trigger temperatures and best chances for storms will be along and north of I-10 although short term rapid refresh guidance is suggesting southward moving activity late this afternoon could make it into the metro area before running against slightly more unfavorable capping south of I-10.

Forecasted soundings show the potential for a few severe thunderstorms this afternoon/evening where activity develops with wind damage being the main threat. General feeling is that the threat is too isolated for a regional slight risk outlook from SPC, but a few reports of strong/severe winds or hail will be possible.

Tues-Wed:

Upstream frontal boundary over NW TX currently, will progress southward and eventually off the TX coast by late Wednesday. Expect strong heating today along this boundary coupled with upslope ESE flow off the western Gulf toward the high terrain of NE MX to set off early evening severe thunderstorms. Models are in decent agreement with activity over both the Hill Country and NE MX this evening merging and growing upscale into a large thunderstorm complex (MCS). Favorable low level inflow off the western Gulf coupled with strong moisture convergence will likely maintain this complex well into the night and into Tuesday morning. Expect activity in some form to approach our western counties by early Tuesday morning, and either the complex itself or its outflow boundaries/MVC will arrive into the area on Tuesday sparking more widespread storms. Additionally the frontal boundary itself will move into the region adding an additional focus. With such an environment driven by the meso (small scale) features, there is plenty of room for the forecast models to either under or over estimate the amount of rainfall coverage. Forecasting will be highly driven by previous day events and small scale features nearly impossible to predict more than 12 hours in advance.

Thurs:

Brief break in the active weather on Thursday as drier air seeps into the area from the NE and the frontal boundary slips into the NW Gulf. I am very wary of the active SW flow pulling up our of MX and for any potential weak impulses that models are not seeing this far out…hence rain chances could be added to Thursday as we more through the week.

Fri-Sat:

Strong upper level storm system which will dig down into the Baja region today and Tuesday will eject ENE across N MX and toward TX Fri-Sat. Frontal boundary over the NW Gulf will begin to surge back north late Thursday as strong system nears the Mexican border. Suspect returning warm front may spark a round of thunderstorms Thursday night followed by the main event Friday-Friday night as the upper low moves across central TX. Fairly slow storm motion by the main system and tremendous moisture advection ahead of the feature is raising the red flags for heavy rainfall and potential flooding, especially given the several days of “wetting” rainfall that will be possible today-Wed. Severe weather will also be possible with this system, but it is still too far out to talk about the details just yet.

Rainfall:

Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches appear likely by late Wednesday aver the region, with some areas likely seeing much higher totals up to 4 inches possible. Grounds have dried over the past several weeks with the lack of rainfall and high temperatures, and much of the rainfall will go into saturating the soil although some local run-off problems may be possible especially under the higher totals. End of the week event is more concerning as totals begin to stack up and grounds become soggy saturated with time. Not overly confident at the moment on the placement of the heavy rainfall axis Fri-Sat with both the GFS and HPC showing most offshore with the ECMWF more inland. Think the inland solution is likely on the more correct track, but this is still 4 days away!

[CajunMama]

I went to my local NWS page and saw a "Preview a redesign of the NWS forecast pages". Anyone else knew they were changing up the page?

New NWS Page Preview

[Jagno]

CM-The new redesigned pages are actually much easier to read.

Yesterday we had flash flooding at home and barely anything downtown at our restaurant. The water at home was rushing so fast towards the storm drains that it was creating a waterfall as it exited each driveway culvert. On the way home on I-210 it was so heavy that I opted to exit and take the back roads home because I couldn't see the tail lights in front of me and traffic was down to 40 mph. I'm not a fan of being hit from behind so I chickened out and got off while the getting was good.

Today actually turned out nice and tomorrow has beautiful weather on tap as well. The weekend looks to be a good time to complete indoor projects with rain beginning Friday. I hope you don't think I was referring to housework. LOL Let's see..........painting, sewing, crocheting, cuddling, knitting, movies, napping, junk food....the list of projects could be endless.

I'm glad I got the grass mowed yesterday morning.

[Nikki]

It seems SE Texas could be in for a bumpy ride Friday! I sure am thankful for all this rain...more thankful than words could do justice! I just wish we had a way to store all the excess for dry times!

I will be glued here for any updates on storms...stay safe everyone and enjoy the rain!!

[vbhoutex]

Jeff's email this morning-Looks like we're going to get wet!!

***Heavy rainfall and severe weather possible this afternoon-Friday night***

Impressive upper level storm system over northern MX has begun its assault on the state of TX this morning. Radar already show widespread deep convection developing over SW/W TX on the leading edge of lift on the eastern flank of the storm system and returning SE flow off the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface a weak frontal boundary remains stalled along the lower to middle TX coast then ENE toward the central Gulf coast. Strong upper level forcing spreading eastward out of MX today will help develop a frontal wave over southern TX today with a warm front backing northward and likely inland across SE TX tonight. Short term models indicate that thunderstorm formation is at least possible today as the boundary returns northward over the area and/or SW TX storms move into the region from the WSW by mid afternoon. Still a decent amount of dry air at the surface over this area compared to areas to our SW so once again as seen on Tuesday what looks impressive to our west may weaken as it approaches…with that said, the current air mass will be undergoing fairly rapid modification today.

Main event looks on tap for tonight as either one or more convective complexes develop over NE MX/SW TX and race eastward toward the area. Strong upper level divergence on the eastern flank of the upper level system combined with 40-55kt of shear, good SE low level flow, and high moisture levels (PWS nearing 1.7-1.9 inches) all support vigorous thunderstorm formation. Uniform shear inland suggest scattered thunderstorms will grow rapidly upscale into a large MCS feature and progress E/ESE toward the TX coast…this is supported by the TX Tech meso WRF model showing a large MCS plowing across much of the area between midnight and 800am Friday. This model is showing a fairly strong “bowing” signal and with favorable wind energy in the mid levels, wind damage looks possible along the leading edge of this line.

Meso scale processes will drive the weather post 600am Friday as the potential for a large thunderstorm complex to be ongoing over the region at that time. Models time to re-develop convection behind the initial complex, but this is highly uncertain as the air mass will likely be heavily worked over and stabilized. However the slow moving upper level system will still be located NW of the region placing the area under favorable dynamics aloft so it will not take much to get things going.

Severe Threat:

Biggest uncertainty is how quickly and far north the offshore surface boundary moves determining how far inland a juicy air mass penetrates. Models have been wanting to hold this feature near the coast and even offshore, but recent guidance has trended more northward with the track of the main upper level storm which will likely help pull the boundary further inland across more of SE TX. Another concern is the potential for convection this afternoon either developing on the boundary or approaching from the west to help push the boundary back southward due to cool storm outflows. Feel the boundary will push inland later today and possible reach I-10 tonight. SPC has our SW counties outlooked for severe weather tonight and it is very possible that this area will need to be expanded to include more of the region. My current thinking is area SW of a line from College Station to The Woodlands to High Island will have some degree of severe threat tonight. Wind damage is likely the main severe mode with any type of linear/bowing thunderstorm complex although low level shear will be enhanced near the frontal boundary across the region. Feel any threat of supercells and tornadoes will be greatest this afternoon and evening south of Matagorda Bay over S TX where low level shear is strongest and instability is greatest.

Heavy Rainfall:

Widespread rainfall of 1-3 inches appears likely which most areas will be able to handle without major problems. Concern comes with the potential for any additional develop on Friday behind the main line or the possibility that the complex of storms slows as it nears the coast and stalls. Moisture levels will be extremely high and the upper levels will have good venting along with a vigorous feed of deep moisture off the Gulf. This all supports high hourly rainfall rates in the stronger storms with potential for a few 2-3 inch amounts in an hour or less. Urban areas may have some issues with that kind of rainfall rate. Flash Flood Guidance is fairly high over the region given the recent dry spell and current QPF forecast are not exceeding those values, so the NWS has decided to hold off on a Flash Flood Watch for now. Trends today may require a watch be issued later today or this evening.

Day 1 (Today) Severe Weather Outlook:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... k_1200.gif


Today-Saturday QPF (Forecasted Rainfall Amounts):

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif

[Jagno]

I think the Mothers Day theme this year will have to be "Dancin in the Rain". It's been raining steady for hours now. With already saturated soils the ponding in low areas in already visible. Stay safe and stay off of the roads if you can. Friday drivers are bad enough without the addition of rain. Have a great weekend and a wonderful Mothers Day.

[PTrackerLA]

This rain event looks like a huge bust for my area. Local weatherman and NWS were calling for 3"-4" and we have about .50" with the rain coming to an end. Looks like the storms offshore stole the show. I don't see how the atmosphere can recover enough this afternoon to have another round of any significance. Models seem to have backed off too but we'll see. I wouldn't mind some sun tomorrow if the rain wants to clear out early however!

[vbhoutex]

This rain event looks like a huge bust for my area. Local weatherman and NWS were calling for 3"-4" and we have about .50" with the rain coming to an end. Looks like the storms offshore stole the show. I don't see how the atmosphere can recover enough this afternoon to have another round of any significance. Models seem to have backed off too but we'll see. I wouldn't mind some sun tomorrow if the rain wants to clear out early however!

That is what we thought until last night here in Houston. We had been worked over good the night before and it looked like a bust for yesterday or last night. Once the sun came out and started the process showers started to pop around 6:30-7 pm. Long story short portions of the SW Houston metro had 10.7" by the time it was all over. The storms focused on the wandering boundary between Houston and the coast and pounded the areas most heavily affected from about 2am-6am when they finally started to move offshore. We had lightning and thunder all night long. The surface boundary may be well to your South which of course would take away most of your chances of more rainfall. If it wanders back North in your area watch out.
I observed wall clouds, quarter size hail and 60mph+ winds while I was out spotting the storm last night. At my house we only got 0.77" of rain while 10 miles SW of us there is ongoing flooding from that 10.7" of rain. Amazingly the worst weather I observed last night(see above)was only 3 miles SW of my house, but that was around 8:30pm.