2012 WPAC season

[dexterlabio]

LOL, each to their own. I remember this system in 2009 which JTWC were warning at 35kts:



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PARMA..?

[Typhoon Hunter]

Sure is Dexter, says at the top of the sat image!

[dexterlabio]

LOL haven't noticed that at first. Just knew it's Parma because of your clues...i remember Parma was severely weakened when it entered Gulf of Tonkin then it rapidly developed into this and JTWC had it stuck at 35kt.


Well....another quiet time in WPAC right now.....

[euro6208]

it sure is quiet...maybe the effects of a transition from la nino to el nino or neutral?

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has the stats of how active has been the WPAC in terms of numbers on the three phases of El Niño,La Niña and Neutral?

[dexterlabio]

I did some research and found out that 2004 and 2006 had "weak" El Niño. Incidentally (or not) those years are known for having a number of notable tropical cyclones.

[Typhoon Hunter]

it sure is quiet...maybe the effects of a transition from la nino to el nino or neutral?

95% of all Wpac tropical cyclone activity takes place after May 1st. Average storms per year by 21st April is 1.5 so it shouldn't be any surprise nothing is going on right now.

[euro6208]

low pressure in the wpac and forecast to deepen...looks like a busy season ahead...

[Typhoon Hunter]

low pressure in the wpac and forecast to deepen...looks like a busy season ahead...

With stronger ridging south of Japan, could mean a lot of landfalls?!? Watch out Taiwan, China and the Philippines!

[P.K.]

BT for our only TS of the year so far is out.

AXPQ20 RJTD 270200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE BEST TRACK
NAME 1201 PAKHAR (1201)
PERIOD FROM MAR2600UTC TO APR0206UTC
2600 9.5N 115.7E 1010HPA //KT 2606 9.5N 115.4E 1008HPA //KT
2612 9.5N 115.1E 1008HPA //KT 2618 9.4N 114.8E 1010HPA //KT
2700 9.4N 114.5E 1010HPA //KT 2706 9.4N 114.3E 1008HPA //KT
2712 9.4N 114.0E 1008HPA //KT 2718 9.4N 113.7E 1008HPA //KT
2800 9.4N 113.4E 1010HPA //KT 2806 9.3N 113.1E 1008HPA //KT
2812 9.3N 112.8E 1008HPA //KT 2818 9.4N 112.5E 1008HPA //KT
2900 9.6N 112.3E 1008HPA //KT 2906 9.7N 112.0E 1006HPA //KT
2912 9.7N 111.8E 1004HPA 35KT 2918 9.7N 111.6E 1002HPA 35KT
3000 9.7N 111.3E 1000HPA 40KT 3006 9.7N 111.0E 998HPA 40KT
3012 9.7N 110.7E 998HPA 40KT 3018 9.7N 110.4E 998HPA 40KT
3100 9.7N 110.0E 998HPA 40KT 3106 9.8N 109.5E 998HPA 40KT
3112 9.9N 109.1E 998HPA 40KT 3118 9.9N 108.7E 998HPA 40KT
0100 10.0N 108.3E 998HPA 40KT 0106 10.0N 107.8E 1000HPA 40KT
0112 10.5N 107.4E 1002HPA 35KT 0118 11.0N 107.0E 1004HPA 35KT
0200 11.5N 106.5E 1006HPA //KT 0206 12.0N 106.1E 1008HPA //KT
REMARKS
TD FORMATION AT MAR2600UTC
FROM TD TO TS AT MAR2912UTC
FROM TS TO TD AT APR0200UTC
DISSIPATION AT APR0212UTC=

[Typhoon Hunter]

Well the waters off Hong Kong just reached the "threshold" for tropical storm development according to HKO: North Point Sea Surface Temp : 26 °C

I've not seen local SSTs reach this high so early in the year since I moved here. Indeed looks at basin wide SSTs you can see the 26 °C is much further north this year than compared to 30th April 2011.

April 30th 2012


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April 30th 2011


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And with all this talk of El Nino forming it looks like our friends in Guam will have to keep an eye over their shoulder once we reach the heart of typhoon season!

[euro6208]

BT for our only TS of the year so far is out.

AXPQ20 RJTD 270200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE BEST TRACK
NAME 1201 PAKHAR (1201)
PERIOD FROM MAR2600UTC TO APR0206UTC
2600 9.5N 115.7E 1010HPA //KT 2606 9.5N 115.4E 1008HPA //KT
2612 9.5N 115.1E 1008HPA //KT 2618 9.4N 114.8E 1010HPA //KT
2700 9.4N 114.5E 1010HPA //KT 2706 9.4N 114.3E 1008HPA //KT
2712 9.4N 114.0E 1008HPA //KT 2718 9.4N 113.7E 1008HPA //KT
2800 9.4N 113.4E 1010HPA //KT 2806 9.3N 113.1E 1008HPA //KT
2812 9.3N 112.8E 1008HPA //KT 2818 9.4N 112.5E 1008HPA //KT
2900 9.6N 112.3E 1008HPA //KT 2906 9.7N 112.0E 1006HPA //KT
2912 9.7N 111.8E 1004HPA 35KT 2918 9.7N 111.6E 1002HPA 35KT
3000 9.7N 111.3E 1000HPA 40KT 3006 9.7N 111.0E 998HPA 40KT
3012 9.7N 110.7E 998HPA 40KT 3018 9.7N 110.4E 998HPA 40KT
3100 9.7N 110.0E 998HPA 40KT 3106 9.8N 109.5E 998HPA 40KT
3112 9.9N 109.1E 998HPA 40KT 3118 9.9N 108.7E 998HPA 40KT
0100 10.0N 108.3E 998HPA 40KT 0106 10.0N 107.8E 1000HPA 40KT
0112 10.5N 107.4E 1002HPA 35KT 0118 11.0N 107.0E 1004HPA 35KT
0200 11.5N 106.5E 1006HPA //KT 0206 12.0N 106.1E 1008HPA //KT
REMARKS
TD FORMATION AT MAR2600UTC
FROM TD TO TS AT MAR2912UTC
FROM TS TO TD AT APR0200UTC
DISSIPATION AT APR0212UTC=

really? 40 knots 10 minute?even that is too low when converting to 1 minute...personally i would go with JTWC's 65 knots 1 minute peak intensity based on pakhar's eye. no disrespect to JMA.

[euro6208]

Well the waters off Hong Kong just reached the "threshold" for tropical storm development according to HKO: North Point Sea Surface Temp : 26 °C

I've not seen local SSTs reach this high so early in the year since I moved here. Indeed looks at basin wide SSTs you can see the 26 °C is much further north this year than compared to 30th April 2011.


And with all this talk of El Nino forming it looks like our friends in Guam will have to keep an eye over their shoulder once we reach the heart of typhoon season!

it's amazing how the sst, heat potential, and Depth 26.C Isotherm doesn't want to go away from the west pacific. while the other basins' decreases significantly and returns but with less power when their seasons arrives , the west pacific retains these all year every year.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/gl.html

[cycloneye]

TSR released a new forecast on 4th of May and the numbers are 26/16/9.

http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRNW ... ay2012.pdf

[euro6208]

TSR released a new forecast on 4th of May and the numbers are 26/16/9.

http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRNW ... ay2012.pdf

26/16/7 is what they forecast last month so 2 more majors expected in this active season.

[StormingB81]

Well I leave right as Typhoon season is starting no more "fun" going through any typhoons out here

[Typhoon Hunter]

Storming, you relocating back to USA? Shame you're not going to be in this part of the world for the upcoming season!

[StormingB81]

Storming, you relocating back to USA? Shame you're not going to be in this part of the world for the upcoming season!

Yes I will be headed to North Carolina the first week of June...who knows maybe I will go through a hurricane...lol I will be there till end of next year then to florida for good so I am sure I will see some Hurricanes..

[dexterlabio]

TSR released a new forecast on 4th of May and the numbers are 26/16/9.

http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRNW ... ay2012.pdf

seems like an active season coming. i predict 2012 to be similar to 2006 and 2009 seasons with similar ENSO condition...anticipating the development of a weak-moderate El Nino during the last 2 quarters of the year.

[dexterlabio]

...that being said, if we don't see any TC formation within May, I wonder how will everything catch up for a predicted near-average season. MJO forecast for the coming weeks show limited MJO signal..could mean no TC formation within the coming weeks...