Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Not much changes in Guadeloupe as the bad weather forecasted continues its trips in vicinity of the Leewards islands.

METEO. The yellow vigilance always last

franceantilles.fr04.05.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 168764.php

That night, a few flurries continue to slowly cross the Guadeloupe archipelago. Tomorrow, the wind which weakens significantly, promotes the stagnation of the storm cells in day. Sunday and Monday, the storm-storm activity may intensify.

A mois and unstable air mass goes back on the Caribbean arc, causing numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. That night, these phenomena continue to slowly cross the Guadeloupe archipelago. Storm-thunderstorm activity remains however moderate. Tomorrow, the wind which weakens significantly, promotes the budding of storm cells in day. Lack of wind, showers tend to stagnate, which can lead to locally important rollups. Sunday and Monday, the storm-storm activity may intensify.
In the day of today, the Basse-Terre has first been sprayed. 30 to 40 litres of water per square metre of rain fell from Trois-Rivières, Petit-Bourg as well as on the heights of Ste-Rose. End of the day, quite marked showers are also triggered in the high-land, particularly in the great funds and side of Anse-Bertrand.
The rain of the last few days making some waterlogged soils, overflows are possible for heavy showers or rain extended on the same area. Caution is in order.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The trough moves away,but still there is plenty of moisture around to cause afternoon showers in PR.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
441 AM AST SAT MAY 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIR UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL COMBINE WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND A LIGHT STEERING FLOW TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO...THEN DRIFT GENERALLY EASTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS... PROLONGED PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RISES IN SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS AS WELL AS INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH AND
RIVER FLOODING. AS A RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL EROSION OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK... HOWEVER SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
RANGE AND MOVE GENERALLY EASTWARD BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS. THESE MAY
IMPACT JSJ AND JPS LATE IN THE DAY. CAN`T RULED OUT A POP UP TSRA AT
ST. CROIX LATER TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING BUT RISK TOO LOW TO
MENTION ANYTHING ATTM. BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE AT LEEWARD
ISLANDS TERMINALS. CHANCES AT JBQ AND JMZ TOO SLIM TO MENTION
ANYTHING DUE TO UNFAVORABLE STEERING WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SEAS OF
UP TO 5 FEET AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 83 76 / 40 10 70 30
STT 78 76 77 76 / 10 30 30 30

[Gustywind]

Just hearing our local radio (RCI) and it's a very bad news for all the islanders and especially for those who live in the Northern islands... A plane crashed in the sea and in vicinity of Grand Case . Debris were found floatting on the ocean . It was a small plane with 4 or 5 passengers. The journalists don't have more infos about the exact localization of this crash. If i've more news i will tell you. My sinceres condoleances to the families.

[msbee]

Oh no, I hadn't heard that..just getting up.
how very sad
oh, just found a news report, Gusty
It was an air ambulance
http://www.smn-news.com/st-maarten-st-m ... board.html

http://www.sxmislandtime.com/component/ ... ivors.html

[Gustywind]

Oh no, I hadn't heard that..just getting up.
how very sad
oh, just found a news report, Gusty
It was an air ambulance
http://www.smn-news.com/st-maarten-st-m ... board.html

http://www.sxmislandtime.com/component/ ... ivors.html

Hi Barbara, you're right you have the latest! It's awfull, the month before i was speaking about the crash of 2001 and here we are !

[msbee]

Everyone here is reacting to this tragic news.
My sympathies to all the families and friends of the deceased.
I am sure we will find out more as the day goes on, but this is sad news indeed

[Gustywind]

Everyone here is reacting to this tragic news.
My sympathies to all the families and friends of the deceased.
I am sure we will find out more as the day goes on, but this is sad news indeed

Ok thanks for this info. I'm shocked! Let's pray for them and keep the faith.

[cycloneye]

Oh my,what tragic news. My prayers go to the families involved. Keep us informed Gusty and Barbara.

[msbee]

The update on the news of this plane crash confirms the worst
Apparently the patient was a Greek tourist who had a heart attack on board a cruise ship. No word yet on the identities.

http://www.smn-news.com/st-maarten-st-m ... -dead.html

[Gustywind]

The update on the news of this plane crash confirms the worst
Apparently the patient was a Greek tourist who had a heart attack on board a cruise ship. No word yet on the identities.

http://www.smn-news.com/st-maarten-st-m ... -dead.html

Oh my godness! It's awful!!!

[Gustywind]

Not much change concerning the weather as Guadeloupe is since Wednesday in Yellow alert, the Northern islands too, so be aware Barbara. Looks like Monday, Tuesday even Wednesday could be the wettest days of week, with a possible ridk of strong thunderstorms given our Pro Mets of Metéo-France Guadeloupe. We will see how the situation evolves.

METEO

Always in yellow vigilance

franceantilles.fr05.05.2012

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 168764.php

Humidity, heat and the lack of wind will foster the emergence of mostly rainy and stormy cells in midday and afternoon. The rains can be intense. Sunday and Monday, the storm-storm activity may intensify.
A moist and unstable air mass goes back on the Caribbean arc for a few days, causing many sometimes stormy showers. That night, thunderstorms were located primarily on Antigua. Reach of precipitation in 24 hours: 30 to 40 mm on the relief of the Basse-Terre and great-funds. On the last three days: 100 to 200 mm on the massif of the Basse-Terre and 30 to 80 mm on the rest of the archipelago.(1 mm = 1 litre of water to the metre-square).
Humidity, heat and the lack of wind will foster the emergence of mostly rainy and stormy cells in midday and afternoon. The rains can be intense. Sunday and Monday, the storm-storm activity may intensify.
The rain of the last few days making some waterlogged soils, overflows are possible for heavy showers or rain extended on the same area. Caution is in order.

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. It looks like things may dry out a little bit in Puerto Rico on Sunday and maybe for the early part of next week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST SAT MAY 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...SOME CLOUDS THIS MORNING...SOME ONSHORE FLOW FOR
NORTHERN PR...AND MID LEVEL DRYING (ABOVE 18 KFT) AS INDICATED BY
WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND 12Z TJSJ RAOB ALL LIKELY SLOWED ONSET OF
DEEP CONVECTION FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS MORE THAN FRIDAY. BUT
SHOWERS/THUNDER ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING WHERE SOILS REMAIN
SATURATED FROM SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN. KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THIS CONVECTIVE PERIOD THEN SUNDAY BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE.
PREICIPITABLE WATER TO DROP OFF VERY SLIGHTLY LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY
WHILE AN UPPER JET CONTINUES IN VICINITY AND THE AREA UNDER
RIGHT/REAR ENTRANCE LOCATION. THE WEAK 5H TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
NEAR HISPANIOLA IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND MOVING EAST...PROBABLY
A NON-FACTOR BY SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE VERY WEAK NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD FOR
INTERIOR PR WHERE STRONGEST HEATING WILL BE. LEANED ON WRF FOR
LOCATION OF QPF THOUGH TONED DOWN ITS VALUES. MOISTURE TO RETURN
TO SEASONAL VALUES LATER IN THE WEEK WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
CONVECTION WILL RETURN TO ISOLATED AND SCATTERED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR ALL LOCAL TAF SITES EXCEPT PSBL
BRIEF MVFR/IFR THRU LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS OVER LAND WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL CONT OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 06/16Z WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
OR EVEN IFR IN SHRA/ISOLD TSRA...AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 83 75 86 / 10 40 30 30
STT 76 84 73 78 / 30 30 30 30

[msbee]

Not much change concerning the weather as Guadeloupe is since Wednesday in Yellow alert, the Northern islands too, so be aware Barbara. Looks like Monday, Tuesday even Wednesday could be the wettest days of week, with a possible ridk of strong thunderstorms given our Pro Mets of Metéo-France Guadeloupe. We will see how the situation evolves.

METEO

Always in yellow vigilance

franceantilles.fr05.05.2012

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 168764.php

Humidity, heat and the lack of wind will foster the emergence of mostly rainy and stormy cells in midday and afternoon. The rains can be intense. Sunday and Monday, the storm-storm activity may intensify.
A moist and unstable air mass goes back on the Caribbean arc for a few days, causing many sometimes stormy showers. That night, thunderstorms were located primarily on Antigua. Reach of precipitation in 24 hours: 30 to 40 mm on the relief of the Basse-Terre and great-funds. On the last three days: 100 to 200 mm on the massif of the Basse-Terre and 30 to 80 mm on the rest of the archipelago.(1 mm = 1 litre of water to the metre-square).
Humidity, heat and the lack of wind will foster the emergence of mostly rainy and stormy cells in midday and afternoon. The rains can be intense. Sunday and Monday, the storm-storm activity may intensify.
The rain of the last few days making some waterlogged soils, overflows are possible for heavy showers or rain extended on the same area. Caution is in order.

Thanks Gusty, I'm always on the outlook.
USAToday is reporting the names of the victims of this morning's crash. The patient was a young man from Greece who was on his honeymoon and had a heart attack on board his cruise ship. According to the article, the doctor and nurse were from Martinique.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/stor ... 54771102/1

[HurricaneFan]

Is that a area of Low Pressure close to the ABC Islands that the earlier forecast was talking about?
It looks like it is moving NE into the NE Caribbean.Will it stick around or move out quickly?It looks like it is moving pretty fast now.

[cycloneye]

Is that a area of Low Pressure close to the ABC Islands that the earlier forecast was talking about?
It looks like it is moving NE into the NE Caribbean.Will it stick around or move out quickly?It looks like it is moving pretty fast now.

The GFS model has been developing a weak low pressure in the Eastern Caribbean for the few past runs and moves it slowly NE into the Atlantic. But the reallity is that it has been a rainy Eastern Caribbean area for the past few days and if what GFS shows comes to fructition,then more rain will be with us for next week,but let's see what occurs. Only today alone,there have been ten flood advisories issued in Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

The updated night discussion.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1058 PM AST SAT MAY 5 2012

.UPDATE...THE COMBINATION OF A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...EXTENDING WEAKLY NORTHWARDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...WILL INDUCE A LIGHT EAST
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE AND TJSJ OOZ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SUGGESTS
THAT THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFTING EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE WEAKENING. THE ASSOCIATED SUBTROPICAL JET
MAX WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE THIS TROUGH AND ENHANCE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
AND ANEGADA PASSAGES. THIS INCLUDES AREAS IN AND AROUND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. FOR THIS REASON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED AT
8:00 PM AST FOR PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THERE WILL BE
AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION EACH
DAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCALIZED AND NOT WIDESPREAD AS IN RECENT
DAYS. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED LONG TERM FORECAST PACKAGE
FOR NOW. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
BASED ON PRESENT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Another round of showers is expected today in PR.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
454 AM AST SUN MAY 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL MOVE EWD NEXT 24 HRS WHILE
SLOWLY WEAKENING. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SRN LEEWARD ISLANDS OVR THE NEXT
72 HRS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE FAIRLY DEEP EARLY THIS MORNING AS IT
EXTENDS THROUGH AT LEAST 300 MB AS SEEN ON A 07Z GOES SOUNDER
SCAN. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS PWAT VALUES HAVE RISEN TO 2.32
INCHES ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A BIT
MORE THROUGH 18Z PER GFS FORECAST. WITH ANOTHER S/W TROUGH FCST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR
HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING LATER TODAY THIS TIME OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ESPECIALLY FAR ERN PR AND ALL OF THE ADJACENT
ISLANDS AND USVI. MODELS INITIALIZE A SHEARLINE CONFLUENCE LINE
ALONG 17N WHICH IS FCST TO LIFT NWD THIS MORNING AND SERVE AS
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST HI-RES
MODELS AND GFS/GFES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN FAR ERN PR AND SAINT CROIX WHICH MAY POSE A RISK
OF FLASH FLOODING. OPTED AGAINST ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH AS LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY SIG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.

THINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT RAPIDLY TONIGHT ON THE WAKE OF S/W TROUGH
WITH SIG IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED MON THRU MID WEEK. WHILE MODELS SHOW
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE LACKING AND
EXPECT NO MORE THAN YOUR TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA. STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUE
THEN SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WED-SAT. EXPECT ALSO A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS LIKELY TO EXCEED 90F BY THU AS
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND H10-H85 MB THICKNESSES RISE. TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SURGE IN MOISTURE UNDER A SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW.


&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE AFTER 06/12Z WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TJPS AND TIST/TISX. TEMPO
MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT TNCM/TKPK THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE BELOW 10K FT...BECOMING WESTERLY AND
STRONGER WITH HEIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...NMRS TSRA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 17N
THE MAIN HAZARD WITH LOCALLY HIGH WINDS AND WAVES. OTHERWISE...SEAS
RATHER TRANQUIL IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE. THINGS BEGIN TO IMPROVE
TONIGHT WITH TSRA LIKELY TO MOVE OUT OF OUR CWA BY 06Z MON IF NOT SOONER.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 74 / 50 30 30 10
STT 77 76 78 76 / 60 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

A weak area of low pressure has formed in the Southern Caribbean near the ABC islands. It is forecast to move NE torwards the Lesser Antilles and the presence of it will cause even more rain for this part of the Caribbean basin than we have seen in past weeks.

[HurricaneFan]

Isn't the low pressure much further to the east of where it is marked on the map now?It also seems to be moving much more faster and much more to the east than northeast than forecasted.
If so,will it slow down and move more to NE than E?
Which part of the island chain will the center of the low past through and how long will it last?Thanks in advance.

[cycloneye]

Isn't the low pressure much further to the east of where it is marked on the map now?It also seems to be moving much more faster and much more to the east than northeast than forecasted.
If so,will it slow down and move more to NE than E?
Which part of the island chain will the center of the low past through and how long will it last?Thanks in advance.

I am not a meterologist,but I can only tell you that it will keep raining on most of the Eastern Caribbean islands until that low pressure moves away.