ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Here is the early May graphic of the forecasts by the ENSO Models with the probabilities.



http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/s ... 2&userID=2

[hurricanetrack]

I see that neutral has gained a little more ground for the A/S/O time period. Looks like a decent chance of neutral conditions being present and not much of a chance of a significant El Nino at this point. All of the SOI numbers currently indicate a neutral pattern is in place. For me personally, I keep an eye on that 90 day number. When it gets to -5.0 and lower, start looking for quite a warm up in the tropical Pacific. If it gets to -8.0 and lower, look out! Anchovies will be hard to come by

[ROCK]

I see that neutral has gained a little more ground for the A/S/O time period. Looks like a decent chance of neutral conditions being present and not much of a chance of a significant El Nino at this point. All of the SOI numbers currently indicate a neutral pattern is in place. For me personally, I keep an eye on that 90 day number. When it gets to -5.0 and lower, start looking for quite a warm up in the tropical Pacific. If it gets to -8.0 and lower, look out! Anchovies will be hard to come by

agree....I still think Neutral for the peak... Funny, today they had a story on Yahoo about the La Nina fading out, the expect El Nino, drought and less storms. I mean who writes this stuff without doing any research. Nuetral conditions produce a tad higher storm count than in a La Nina season. Personally, I think the forecasted numbers are to low....thus my reasoning for going 13/9/4....

anyone notice the EURO is backing down from its earlier forecast of higher pressures in the MDR, Carib, and GOM.....

[Kingarabian]

I just cant wait for the next update from the Euro.

+ this week, the Nino 3+4 regions have warmed compared to the cooling we saw in April.

[NDG]

I don't know if I want to use 2009 as an Analog year for 2012.
ENSO in 2009 had a much faster warm up during late April and into May, currently is not doing so, unless it changes during the month of May I am not including 2009 as an Analog year.

2002 fits better.

.

No two enso's are exactly alike or evolve the exact same way. 2009 is a good longterm analog because of nina-nina-nino. There are few of those so it's included in the pool. Wxman posted a graph somewhere how the enso 3.4 rise and falls for the past year has resembled similarly to the 08-09 frame. However, 09 was forecasting a moderate nino and as of now a weak to maybe moderate nino

Hmm, I thought 2008 was more of a neutral year than a La Nina like last year.
All I am saying is that the current ENSO has to catch up big time to the rapid warm up that was being seen already by this same time in '09.

[Ntxw]

^ 08/09 was a weak Nina. DJF was just below the -0.5 threshold as low as -0.8c in it's peak which is what I think final numbers for 2011-2012 will be if not in the ballpark . If you look at the chart the stretch from 07-09 was close to the previous nina events, maybe slightly not as strong then.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

[Javlin]

I don't like neutral seasons.

[wxman57]

What determines seasonal activity is far more than ENSO. What I think is most important this season is that the Euro is forecast a complete pressure reversal for the Atlantic Basin (when compared to 2010 and 2011). Instead of very low pressure across the Atlantic and high pressure in the East Pacific, the Euro is predicting high pressure in the Tropical Atlantic and quite low pressure in the East Pacific.

This would suggest a very active East Pacific season and limited activity in the Atlantic Basin.

[hurricanetrack]

None the less, we could have 4 to 6 hurricanes and 3 of them hit the U.S. or surrounding islands/countries and have a really bad season. Or, zero could hit which as been more the norm since 2009 than anything. Only one way to find out.

Was it you wxman57 that mentioned something about hurricanes being smaller and perhaps more intense due to the higher pressures? That would be worrisome for folks like our group who will be out in what ever hits this season, if anything. I like my work, but would rather pass on small, intense "Andrew-like" hurricanes. Yuck.

[wxman57]

None the less, we could have 4 to 6 hurricanes and 3 of them hit the U.S. or surrounding islands/countries and have a really bad season. Or, zero could hit which as been more the norm since 2009 than anything. Only one way to find out.

Was it you wxman57 that mentioned something about hurricanes being smaller and perhaps more intense due to the higher pressures? That would be worrisome for folks like our group who will be out in what ever hits this season, if anything. I like my work, but would rather pass on small, intense "Andrew-like" hurricanes. Yuck.

Right, low numbers don't equal no threat. Many analog seasons featured a single U.S. significant hurricane impact (1957, 1965, for example). Not multiple impacts, though. As for the size issue, with generally unfavorable conditions expected throughout the tropics this year, I'd expect a greater chance of a smaller cat 3-4 (Charlie-ish) rather than a large hurricane like Katrina, Ivan or Rita. Larger hurricanes require a very large favorable environment.

[CrazyC83]

But even if there is only one named storm all year, it could be a horrible year if that single storm is a Katrina...

[cycloneye]

Interesting little uptick of the 30 day SOI in the past few days.

[ROCK]

What determines seasonal activity is far more than ENSO. What I think is most important this season is that the Euro is forecast a complete pressure reversal for the Atlantic Basin (when compared to 2010 and 2011). Instead of very low pressure across the Atlantic and high pressure in the East Pacific, the Euro is predicting high pressure in the Tropical Atlantic and quite low pressure in the East Pacific.

This would suggest a very active East Pacific season and limited activity in the Atlantic Basin.

The EURO has backed off some from its prior forecast....still high pressure but not as strong as before. I look forwad to the next update. Last year we had low pressures across the MDR,Carib and GOM....didnt produce anything that spectacular. Well maybe Irene for awhile...The issue last year is we had stable air all across the ALT for a good part of ASO.

[OURAGAN]

The soi continues to go up, latest 30 days value -3

[cycloneye]

I don't like neutral seasons.

Why you dont like it?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

What determines seasonal activity is far more than ENSO. What I think is most important this season is that the Euro is forecast a complete pressure reversal for the Atlantic Basin (when compared to 2010 and 2011). Instead of very low pressure across the Atlantic and high pressure in the East Pacific, the Euro is predicting high pressure in the Tropical Atlantic and quite low pressure in the East Pacific.

This would suggest a very active East Pacific season and limited activity in the Atlantic Basin.

The EURO has backed off some from its prior forecast....still high pressure but not as strong as before. I look forwad to the next update. Last year we had low pressures across the MDR,Carib and GOM....didnt produce anything that spectacular. Well maybe Irene for awhile...The issue last year is we had stable air all across the ALT for a good part of ASO.

Which is worrying, at the end of the day it doesn't matter what the ultra long range model was forecasting several months ago. As the meteorological dictum goes 'the trend is your friend', or perhaps your enemy in certain cases.

[cycloneye]

The soi continues to go up, latest 30 days value -3

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/monitoring/soi30.png

And another day that it continues to go that way,now up to -1.1.

[Kingarabian]

Interesting rise by the SOI!

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 5/7/12 update

No big changes occured in the past week on this week's update as Nino 3.4 is at -0.1C,same as last week's update.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

Ntxw, what do you make about some mixed signals about ENSO turning warmer or not? Negative signs=30 day SOI going up for a week now,Nino 3.4 stalled below the 0.0C line,trade winds fairly strong west of 130W. Positive signs=Continued warming at Nino 1+2 and in part of Nino 3,new kelvin wave comming.